Ultra-High Odds Put Bet Strategy
October 18th, 2013 at 3:07:59 PM
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I'm wondering if anybody else has tried a single put, high lay betting strategy at the casinos with crazy upper limits on the odds...last time I was in Vegas there were still a couple of places that offered ultra-high odds of $1000 or more regardless of the opening bet amount.
My idea is to gather a couple thousand dollars, probably a group investment pool with my friends, then visit one such table, making the minumum don't come bet and then laying the maximum put bet that my bankroll can reasonably support.
As a follow up question, I'm curious as to what that maximum lay should be as a ratio of the overall bankroll...I am assuming that it's something around 1 in 7, or approx. $275 on a $5 don't come bet with a $2,000 bankroll.
It seems to me that this strategy greatly lessens the descent rate of the win-loss oscillation slope over time, keeping it essentially near 0, or put differently, it dilutes the overall house margin to something close to 0%, perhaps .1% or lower based on the actual bets made...and if this is the case, then the potential to walk away with a win occurs for a lengthy period of time, because the overall net gain and loss will oscillate above and below even for quite a while. It also means that a big wins are not that likely, and that the best possible likely outcome is probably a overall gain of approximately 25-50% of the original bankroll.
Thanks in advance for any feedback.
My idea is to gather a couple thousand dollars, probably a group investment pool with my friends, then visit one such table, making the minumum don't come bet and then laying the maximum put bet that my bankroll can reasonably support.
As a follow up question, I'm curious as to what that maximum lay should be as a ratio of the overall bankroll...I am assuming that it's something around 1 in 7, or approx. $275 on a $5 don't come bet with a $2,000 bankroll.
It seems to me that this strategy greatly lessens the descent rate of the win-loss oscillation slope over time, keeping it essentially near 0, or put differently, it dilutes the overall house margin to something close to 0%, perhaps .1% or lower based on the actual bets made...and if this is the case, then the potential to walk away with a win occurs for a lengthy period of time, because the overall net gain and loss will oscillate above and below even for quite a while. It also means that a big wins are not that likely, and that the best possible likely outcome is probably a overall gain of approximately 25-50% of the original bankroll.
Thanks in advance for any feedback.
October 18th, 2013 at 3:12:40 PM
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If you're playing a random negative expectation game, the longer you play the more likely you will lose. And the dice don't care what you want.
Sometimes it might be more fun to bet in a way that you feel almost certain to lose with the lowest edge possible. The dice won't care if you are trying to lose or not. If you bet low edge bets trying to lose, you can try to lose and sometimes it just won't happen.
The point of my response is that don't fool yourself into thinking your intentions will affect your chances of success. The other point is that it can be fun trying to lose and winning a large multiple of your intended loss instead. Much more fun than doing the opposite, and not a whole lot difference chance in happening really especially on the low edge bets.
Reverse martingale $5 on the don't pass trying to lose $5 and just refuse to put any wins into the rail and make no other bets! You could lay odds with your wins. You can't lose more than $5 per roll, and you will very likely not lose much even if you TRY TO LOSE IT ALL and have a big enough bankroll. Those huge wins when you are TRYING TO JUST LOSE A DAMN $5 can be quite entertaining.
Bottom line, have fun no matter what you do.
Sometimes it might be more fun to bet in a way that you feel almost certain to lose with the lowest edge possible. The dice won't care if you are trying to lose or not. If you bet low edge bets trying to lose, you can try to lose and sometimes it just won't happen.
The point of my response is that don't fool yourself into thinking your intentions will affect your chances of success. The other point is that it can be fun trying to lose and winning a large multiple of your intended loss instead. Much more fun than doing the opposite, and not a whole lot difference chance in happening really especially on the low edge bets.
Reverse martingale $5 on the don't pass trying to lose $5 and just refuse to put any wins into the rail and make no other bets! You could lay odds with your wins. You can't lose more than $5 per roll, and you will very likely not lose much even if you TRY TO LOSE IT ALL and have a big enough bankroll. Those huge wins when you are TRYING TO JUST LOSE A DAMN $5 can be quite entertaining.
Bottom line, have fun no matter what you do.
aahigh.com
October 18th, 2013 at 3:22:26 PM
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OK thanks for your response, just to clarify, the only time I think betting is fun is when I leave with more money than I brought...so wrong and right betting mean nothing to me, except that they are (near) mirror opposites of each other. I quess I need to find a simulator that will allow me to try this out, problem is, they don't usually allow the odds that I want to test.
October 18th, 2013 at 5:02:52 PM
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Maybe not an online simulatorQuote: steveauxI quess I need to find a simulator that will allow me to try this out, problem is,
they don't usually allow the odds that I want to test.
Try WinCraps
they offer up to 9999X odds (ok)
free to have
a Windows program
http://www.cloudcitysoftware.com/
At least read the Help section
That way you can get your craps terms nailed down.
Good Luck
and the super high Lay odds can easily
make your bankroll go way ups and downs and all in-betweens too
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
