New player with vegas story and Dont pass questions
September 12th, 2013 at 2:30:02 PM
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Greetings all. I have played craps before but have never really played it until my trip this past weekend to Vegas for the start of the NFL season. I did some reading about playing and strategy before going but nothing teaches you like actually playing! I was very fortunate this last trip to pull 1K chips from both M and Palms playing $10 Pass with max odds 3-4-5x table, also meeting a nice lady at the M who i was later told is their local craps high-roller. We both won each other some nice $$$ with some 10-20 minute roll streaks each.
To further my knowledge I am sharpening up on Dont Pass and Dont Come and have a question that is probably stupid or my math is just way off:
If laying the odds return is so much less, say 1:2 on a point of 4, then why not bet to maximize the initial bet which pays 1:1 and minimize the odds bet? Example:
$25 Dont pass with $150 odds on a point of 4 will pay you back your initial $175 (25+150) plus $100 winnings (25+75), $275 total.
OR
$85 dont pass + $85 odds on a point of 4 will pay you back your initial 170 (85+85) plus (85+42.50), 297.50 total.
So for $5 less overall and maximizing the initial bet it seems you make $22 more this way. Tell me what i am missing here???
To further my knowledge I am sharpening up on Dont Pass and Dont Come and have a question that is probably stupid or my math is just way off:
If laying the odds return is so much less, say 1:2 on a point of 4, then why not bet to maximize the initial bet which pays 1:1 and minimize the odds bet? Example:
$25 Dont pass with $150 odds on a point of 4 will pay you back your initial $175 (25+150) plus $100 winnings (25+75), $275 total.
OR
$85 dont pass + $85 odds on a point of 4 will pay you back your initial 170 (85+85) plus (85+42.50), 297.50 total.
So for $5 less overall and maximizing the initial bet it seems you make $22 more this way. Tell me what i am missing here???
September 12th, 2013 at 2:46:46 PM
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It's all about the come out roll . Once you pass this point of the game , then you probably win your bet . But this is where dont's get hurt the most . 7 might come up 10 times in a row , leaving you with empty pockets .
September 12th, 2013 at 2:48:07 PM
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You can also bet $175 on don't pass without odds for a bigger win.
If you go strictly by the math, the smartest way to bet $175 would be to bet $5 on don't pass with $170 odds at a table that has at least 20x odds.
The don't pass bet carries a 1.4% house edge, while the odds bet carries a 0% house edge.
If you can afford laying 100x odds, the house edge goes down to a miniscule 0.014%.
If you go strictly by the math, the smartest way to bet $175 would be to bet $5 on don't pass with $170 odds at a table that has at least 20x odds.
The don't pass bet carries a 1.4% house edge, while the odds bet carries a 0% house edge.
If you can afford laying 100x odds, the house edge goes down to a miniscule 0.014%.
September 12th, 2013 at 2:56:28 PM
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Good luck with the high roller!
I agree, books and lectures and practice sessions are all fine and dandy but nothing teaches anything better than the deep end of the pool.
I'm not so great at math but here is my stab at your "laying the odds" question.
Its not just "payout" that you look at: you should look at liklihood of happening also. If you TAKE odds on the Pass Line or LAY odds on the Don't Pass Line, your "odds bet" has no house edge and no player edge. They are actually offering you the stick in the middle. Rare in a casino!!!
AFTER you get over that first roll, you Don't Bet is more likely to pay off. You can't "press" the bet after the point has been established but you can make an odds bet wherein you risk more than you will win but have a greater chance that you will indeed win it.
It does take a bit of a larger bankroll to camp out on the Donts all the time. Frankly, for all the hot air about it, I don't see and real difference between being a Right Bettor and being a Wrong Way Bettor. Its such a smidgen as to make no difference.
I agree, books and lectures and practice sessions are all fine and dandy but nothing teaches anything better than the deep end of the pool.
I'm not so great at math but here is my stab at your "laying the odds" question.
Its not just "payout" that you look at: you should look at liklihood of happening also. If you TAKE odds on the Pass Line or LAY odds on the Don't Pass Line, your "odds bet" has no house edge and no player edge. They are actually offering you the stick in the middle. Rare in a casino!!!
AFTER you get over that first roll, you Don't Bet is more likely to pay off. You can't "press" the bet after the point has been established but you can make an odds bet wherein you risk more than you will win but have a greater chance that you will indeed win it.
It does take a bit of a larger bankroll to camp out on the Donts all the time. Frankly, for all the hot air about it, I don't see and real difference between being a Right Bettor and being a Wrong Way Bettor. Its such a smidgen as to make no difference.
September 12th, 2013 at 3:05:25 PM
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Quote: SmokatokeSo for $5 less overall and maximizing the initial bet it seems you make $22 more this way. Tell me what i am missing here???
The 7 or 11 on the come-out. That's what you're missing. Either of those two numbers will wipe out your Don't bet immediately.
Fighting BS one post at a time!
September 12th, 2013 at 4:26:03 PM
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Quote: Beethoven9thQuote: SmokatokeSo for $5 less overall and maximizing the initial bet it seems you make $22 more this way. Tell me what i am missing here???
The 7 or 11 on the come-out. That's what you're missing. Either of those two numbers will wipe out your Don't bet immediately.
I'll piggyback off Beethoven9th because he's 100% correct.
If you started a don't pass with $85 instead of $25 like you stated, you have a 22% chance of losing and only an 11% chance of winning on the come out roll. Obviously people don't make their money on pass or don't pass bets alone, but, I think your idea sounds more appealing because you're not thinking about the come out roll.
September 12th, 2013 at 8:48:38 PM
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Putting aside all different opinions on dice control potential and assuming a complete
random approach to the game, a persons only remaining approach to playing craps is
the very best bets.
again assuming everything is random, still given a choice if a person threw a 6 and then a 6
and then a 5 and then another 6 and if i had to make a bet on the next number, what would
that be....6... not saying that is the smart bet, but it would make the most sense (if i had to make a bet),
given all the information i had.
So information is important and again assuming i understand i was going to play a completely
random game of craps, i would never place a bet on a table i have not charted for some period of
time. Understanding that every roll is random, and what happend on the last roll, has nothing to
do with the next...still if my charting indicated that very few 4's were thrown i would lay a 4
on the come out to cover my dont pass bet. If hardly any 10's were coming up and many more
4's were seen i would lay a 10. If the average roll was 5 and there were not many if any repeaters
i would have a dont pass bet, and one dont come bet, and the lay on the 4 or 10.. if the table was more player friendly, and people
were repeating numbers, i would lay the 4 and/or 10 only on the come out and take 1 or both down after the
come out roll, and i would not place any dc bets.
If the table was active i would wait a couple of rolls and then place one or two of the numers my chart
indicated where the most active.
This is not how i play as a DI, but it is a better way to play a random game, because you atleast have some
information..... not perfect, maybe not even good, but the best information you can get.....
You are then playing as smart as you can.
Dicesetter
random approach to the game, a persons only remaining approach to playing craps is
the very best bets.
again assuming everything is random, still given a choice if a person threw a 6 and then a 6
and then a 5 and then another 6 and if i had to make a bet on the next number, what would
that be....6... not saying that is the smart bet, but it would make the most sense (if i had to make a bet),
given all the information i had.
So information is important and again assuming i understand i was going to play a completely
random game of craps, i would never place a bet on a table i have not charted for some period of
time. Understanding that every roll is random, and what happend on the last roll, has nothing to
do with the next...still if my charting indicated that very few 4's were thrown i would lay a 4
on the come out to cover my dont pass bet. If hardly any 10's were coming up and many more
4's were seen i would lay a 10. If the average roll was 5 and there were not many if any repeaters
i would have a dont pass bet, and one dont come bet, and the lay on the 4 or 10.. if the table was more player friendly, and people
were repeating numbers, i would lay the 4 and/or 10 only on the come out and take 1 or both down after the
come out roll, and i would not place any dc bets.
If the table was active i would wait a couple of rolls and then place one or two of the numers my chart
indicated where the most active.
This is not how i play as a DI, but it is a better way to play a random game, because you atleast have some
information..... not perfect, maybe not even good, but the best information you can get.....
You are then playing as smart as you can.
Dicesetter
September 12th, 2013 at 9:10:58 PM
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Quote: Beethoven9thQuote: SmokatokeSo for $5 less overall and maximizing the initial bet it seems you make $22 more this way. Tell me what i am missing here???
The 7 or 11 on the come-out. That's what you're missing. Either of those two numbers will wipe out your Don't bet immediately.
Thank you all. Still lots to master...
September 12th, 2013 at 9:42:30 PM
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Quote: dicesitteragain assuming everything is random... i would never place a bet on a table i have not charted for some period of
time. Understanding that every roll is random, and what happend on the last roll, has nothing to
do with the next...still if my charting indicated that very few 4's were thrown i would lay a 4
on the come out to cover my dont pass bet...This is not how i play as a DI, but it is a better way to play a random game, because you atleast have some information..... not perfect, maybe not even good, but the best information you can get.....
This is inherently self-contradictory.
You concede craps is random, but then superstitiously talk about charting.
It makes no sense.
How can you chart randomness?
"What, me worry?"
September 12th, 2013 at 11:48:33 PM
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Well
you can chart anything... it does not matter if it is random or not.
A chart is just a complete record of all the rolls for a period of time.
Does not mean anything for sure, but it is the best information you
have if you are just a random player... Since you are a random player,
and you are going to play anyway and going to bet anyway, you
can either look at your chart and use the information or not.
Or you can go to the table with your $175 and place a bet
without any information at all....
I am not saying you have to play like that, i am just saying
it makes sense to get what ever information you can.
I have seen hundreds of guys walk up to a table where it has been going
real well and start playing the donts and get killed, i have seen hundreds of
players walk up to the table with thousands and bet max bet all the way across
when no one has made more than 4-5 rolls in an hour.
All i am saying is pay attention.
Last friday night i charted the table and there were 3 times as many 10's as
4's, i think there were only 3 4's in the time i charted, On others i played
a dont pass and layed a 4 on the come out i did well. Saturday it was reverse
with the 4 & 10.
I dont pay attention to my chart when i roll, i already know from practice
what numbers i hit more than others with different sets, however there are
nights i throw more 4's than 10's and the other way around, also some nights
i throw more 9's than 8's,,, since i dont bet across, i like to place my bets where i feel
i will get the best return.
Everyone has a choice , start betting with no information or see what is
happening and then bet.
dicesetter
you can chart anything... it does not matter if it is random or not.
A chart is just a complete record of all the rolls for a period of time.
Does not mean anything for sure, but it is the best information you
have if you are just a random player... Since you are a random player,
and you are going to play anyway and going to bet anyway, you
can either look at your chart and use the information or not.
Or you can go to the table with your $175 and place a bet
without any information at all....
I am not saying you have to play like that, i am just saying
it makes sense to get what ever information you can.
I have seen hundreds of guys walk up to a table where it has been going
real well and start playing the donts and get killed, i have seen hundreds of
players walk up to the table with thousands and bet max bet all the way across
when no one has made more than 4-5 rolls in an hour.
All i am saying is pay attention.
Last friday night i charted the table and there were 3 times as many 10's as
4's, i think there were only 3 4's in the time i charted, On others i played
a dont pass and layed a 4 on the come out i did well. Saturday it was reverse
with the 4 & 10.
I dont pay attention to my chart when i roll, i already know from practice
what numbers i hit more than others with different sets, however there are
nights i throw more 4's than 10's and the other way around, also some nights
i throw more 9's than 8's,,, since i dont bet across, i like to place my bets where i feel
i will get the best return.
Everyone has a choice , start betting with no information or see what is
happening and then bet.
dicesetter
September 13th, 2013 at 7:35:16 AM
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I'm not saying you should not chart: go right ahead.
I am saying charting does nothing to demonstrably increase your odds of winning.
So long as the outcome of the next roll is random, charting does not yield a true player advantage.
How could it?
I am saying charting does nothing to demonstrably increase your odds of winning.
So long as the outcome of the next roll is random, charting does not yield a true player advantage.
How could it?
"What, me worry?"
September 13th, 2013 at 7:50:17 AM
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well the casino would agree with you, take
as little information as you can to the table
and bet as much as you can .
dicesetter
as little information as you can to the table
and bet as much as you can .
dicesetter
September 13th, 2013 at 8:28:50 AM
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Ah, but charting does not yield valuable, usable information.
Hello, gambler's fallacy!
It does not change the odds / HA whatsoever.
You derive comfort from charting, that's all.
It's like meat loaf, mashed potatoes and gravy.
Hello, gambler's fallacy!
It does not change the odds / HA whatsoever.
You derive comfort from charting, that's all.
It's like meat loaf, mashed potatoes and gravy.
"What, me worry?"
September 13th, 2013 at 9:46:21 AM
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Don't knock a great meal. As well as tasting great, it does provide quite a bit of nutrition.Quote: MrVAh, but charting does not yield valuable, usable information. Hello, gambler's fallacy! It does not change the odds / HA whatsoever. You derive comfort from charting, that's all. It's like meat loaf, mashed potatoes and gravy.
September 13th, 2013 at 10:16:27 AM
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Mrv
Have it your way, i dont care how you play,
I just gave you good information that may now and then
make you some money.. it has for me
dicesetter
Have it your way, i dont care how you play,
I just gave you good information that may now and then
make you some money.. it has for me
dicesetter
September 13th, 2013 at 12:42:14 PM
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Back when I followed Patrick's suggestions, I charted pretty faithfully.
In hindsight, it seems to have made no difference, other than to serve as a cue as to when I should or should not make a bet.
Once I bet, the outcome was random.
Just curious as to how you hypothesize charting actually works, i.e. what forces are at work at a craps table that derandomize the result, based on what was rolled previously?
Sounds quasi-mystical, quasi-religious, and just plain superstitious to me.
But hey, we all need to have some plan of attack to play the game, and charting is certainly no worse (and no better) than reading tea leaves or chicken guts.
In hindsight, it seems to have made no difference, other than to serve as a cue as to when I should or should not make a bet.
Once I bet, the outcome was random.
Just curious as to how you hypothesize charting actually works, i.e. what forces are at work at a craps table that derandomize the result, based on what was rolled previously?
Sounds quasi-mystical, quasi-religious, and just plain superstitious to me.
But hey, we all need to have some plan of attack to play the game, and charting is certainly no worse (and no better) than reading tea leaves or chicken guts.
"What, me worry?"
September 13th, 2013 at 12:47:39 PM
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Quote: Smokatoke
If laying the odds return is so much less, say 1:2 on a point of 4, then why not bet to maximize the initial bet which pays 1:1 and minimize the odds bet? Example:
$25 Dont pass with $150 odds on a point of 4 will pay you back your initial $175 (25+150) plus $100 winnings (25+75), $275 total.
OR
$85 dont pass + $85 odds on a point of 4 will pay you back your initial 170 (85+85) plus (85+42.50), 297.50 total.
So for $5 less overall and maximizing the initial bet it seems you make $22 more this way. Tell me what i am missing here???
Someone else said it, but just to make it clear you can't add to a DP bet, you can only lay odds when a point is established. I thought maybe that point was glossed over.
September 13th, 2013 at 1:10:05 PM
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" Last friday night i charted the table" Shades of John Patrick LOL
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
September 13th, 2013 at 2:56:28 PM
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Quote: MrV
Just curious as to how you hypothesize charting actually works, i.e. what forces are at work at a craps table that derandomize the result, based on what was rolled previously?
Sounds quasi-mystical, quasi-religious, and just plain superstitious to me.
But hey, we all need to have some plan of attack to play the game, and charting is certainly no worse (and no better) than reading tea leaves or chicken guts.
In a certain sense you are quite correct. For instance, if as you approached the table a certain dealer recognized you and said he was glad to see you back in Las Vegas and that he had in fact consulted tea leaves the previous night and now reports to you that the leaves indicated you should be on the Don't Side, you would laugh good naturedly and not invest even your proverbial two cents in his pronouncement.
If instead he greets you and indicates the table is running choppy but has had a decided edge on the Wrong Side for the last severalth rolls, you might value his statement a little more. He is still rendering an impression that is no more controlling than if there were an anunciator indicating Red/Black runs at roulette. None of his "recent past" is trapped into having an influence on the next roll.
The "charting" makes you pause, consider your bets and adhere to the "current party line" when you start out for your first few bets.
Is it iron clad foresight? Heck no! We all know that.
September 13th, 2013 at 4:45:51 PM
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Real life experience is worth more on a resume than what you learned in school.
The human element hasn't been discovered yet, but you can see it's effects all around you.
I don't understand why, with all this math knowledge, people still bet against a high house edge when there are other bets with a lower house edge. Maybe it's just game preference. They like the game better than the games with a lower house edge. I've done it.
What is the EV sitting at a table with a blackjack dealer that is a trainee vs James. A 15 year veteran blackjack dealer.
Cards are hand shuffled.
The human element hasn't been discovered yet, but you can see it's effects all around you.
I don't understand why, with all this math knowledge, people still bet against a high house edge when there are other bets with a lower house edge. Maybe it's just game preference. They like the game better than the games with a lower house edge. I've done it.
What is the EV sitting at a table with a blackjack dealer that is a trainee vs James. A 15 year veteran blackjack dealer.
Cards are hand shuffled.
Buffering...
September 13th, 2013 at 6:23:00 PM
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For the same reason that with all this nutrition knowledge people still don't all order chopped liver simply because it has more vitamins than anything else on the menu. People enjoy different types of games and different risks with different payouts. Not everyone chases the penny out to six decimal places. Fun is important.Quote: wrobersonI don't understand why, with all this math knowledge, people still bet against a high house edge when there are other bets with a lower house edge.
September 13th, 2013 at 8:06:45 PM
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Quote: MrV
It's like meat loaf, mashed potatoes and gravy.
i won a prop bet before for drinking a whole boat full of gravy :)
September 13th, 2013 at 10:55:01 PM
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Of all the things that come up on these boards and all the things I have seen over the years, the most useless is charting.
get second you pig
September 13th, 2013 at 11:22:53 PM
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Quote: ontariodealerOf all the things that come up on these boards and all the things I have seen over the years, the most useless is charting.
What, more useless than dice setting?
"What, me worry?"
September 14th, 2013 at 1:10:36 AM
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Quote: ontariodealerOf all the things that come up on these boards and all the things I have seen over the years, the most useless is charting.
useless??
Anyone have any stats as to how much the take increases if a roulette wheel has a well functioning annunciator?
Anyone figure out why casinos are eternally handing out chart paper and golf pencils even at MiniBacc tables?
Anyone figure out the difference between the tokes received by a dice crew that gives a "weather report" as to one that does not?
Its like perfume? Its effect is subtle but it sure ain't useless.
September 14th, 2013 at 6:58:30 AM
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Any time I see charting or DI or dark side I leave . Totally new players , same moves , never drunk , that's when I bet .Quote: ontariodealerOf all the things that come up on these boards and all the things I have seen over the years, the most useless is charting.
September 14th, 2013 at 8:16:38 AM
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Quote: FleaStiffuseless??
Anyone have any stats as to how much the take increases if a roulette wheel has a well functioning annunciator?
Anyone figure out why casinos are eternally handing out chart paper and golf pencils even at MiniBacc tables?
Anyone figure out the difference between the tokes received by a dice crew that gives a "weather report" as to one that does not?
Its like perfume? Its effect is subtle but it sure ain't useless.
Seems like an eternal and circular argument to me. The cards, the dice, the wheel have no memory. Charting is useless. Except....when the wheel has a bias. The dealer's penetrating too far into the dummy. The dice are doing whatever they're doing (since I have no expertise in dice). The only way you know and can then take advantage of things like that is to have been charting them. So you're all right.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
September 14th, 2013 at 8:32:24 AM
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MRV
i played last night for a short time, this was my first trip on a tub since
i got back from Vegas.
I watched for awhile and kept my records and then played some. My
shot was terrible and i lost money on it.
However i came out ok, because of my records... i always wait a couple of rolls
before i bet on anyone and i did that. My charting showed an increase in 8,9,10
over what i would expect, so after i counted 4-5 rolls i would bet only 8,9,10 or
a combination. I never bet a 4,5,6 on others...
At the end of my play my data showed an 18% increase in 8, 51% in 9 and 47.5 in
10. Over what normal probabilities indicate.
I understand from a math standpoint it may not make sense, we are told to place
bets on 6 or 8 because that has the losest house advantage. Well if you place a
6 and dont hit it, the house take is 100%.
Last night when the pass line number was 5 it was not hit all night, when it was 9
it was hit 80% of the time.
Some would say your indicating trend betting is the way to go.... i am NOT.... i am
there to bet on me ( last night..me was the wrong choice) but when i 4-5 count
others, i am using my data to place that bet.
dicesetter
i played last night for a short time, this was my first trip on a tub since
i got back from Vegas.
I watched for awhile and kept my records and then played some. My
shot was terrible and i lost money on it.
However i came out ok, because of my records... i always wait a couple of rolls
before i bet on anyone and i did that. My charting showed an increase in 8,9,10
over what i would expect, so after i counted 4-5 rolls i would bet only 8,9,10 or
a combination. I never bet a 4,5,6 on others...
At the end of my play my data showed an 18% increase in 8, 51% in 9 and 47.5 in
10. Over what normal probabilities indicate.
I understand from a math standpoint it may not make sense, we are told to place
bets on 6 or 8 because that has the losest house advantage. Well if you place a
6 and dont hit it, the house take is 100%.
Last night when the pass line number was 5 it was not hit all night, when it was 9
it was hit 80% of the time.
Some would say your indicating trend betting is the way to go.... i am NOT.... i am
there to bet on me ( last night..me was the wrong choice) but when i 4-5 count
others, i am using my data to place that bet.
dicesetter
September 14th, 2013 at 10:13:23 AM
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Good, it sounds like you had fun.
That's what it's all about.
But it was due to a bit of luck, nothing more.
I'm going to shoot craps at a couple of tribal casinos today.
As usual, I'll walk up to a table that has at least a couple players playing, buy in, and start betting.
No five count, no charting.
Place six and eight, and hope for the best.
Sometimes I win, sometimes I lose.
Gambling is like that.
That's what it's all about.
But it was due to a bit of luck, nothing more.
I'm going to shoot craps at a couple of tribal casinos today.
As usual, I'll walk up to a table that has at least a couple players playing, buy in, and start betting.
No five count, no charting.
Place six and eight, and hope for the best.
Sometimes I win, sometimes I lose.
Gambling is like that.
"What, me worry?"
September 14th, 2013 at 12:29:35 PM
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Quote: FleaStiffuseless??
Anyone have any stats as to how much the take increases if a roulette wheel has a well functioning annunciator?
Anyone figure out why casinos are eternally handing out chart paper and golf pencils even at MiniBacc tables?
When electronic tote boards were first introduced
in roulette in the late 80's, the hold went up 30%
over night. Charting is far from useless from the
casinos POV. They hand out charting material at
roulette and bac because the think the games can't
be beat, and charting encourages people to make
even bigger bets.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 14th, 2013 at 2:06:49 PM
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I think you are failing to differentiate between fact and the gambler's fervent belief system.
In fact, past history of a roulette wheel means nothing ... except for a biased wheel and let's face it, ain't none of them around anymore. Yet the gambler's belief system remains, it is that belief system that lets the gambler think he has control over the next spin because of his knowledge of useless history.
The chart in Baccarat is precise, the "chart" in craps is more a mental image than a physical one. A gambler approaches the table and notes the chip banks, the place bet area, the spirit of the crowd and the comments made to him by the dealers. And now he has a "mental chart" of 'Choppy, but decidedly better on the Don'ts'.
The gambler thinks he has somehow gained a greater measure of control over the events about to unfold... the gamblers dream!
Someone approaching a MiniBacc table could be handed yesterday's chart and if the floorperson said 'I've been keeping track all morning just waiting for you to arrive", the new player would be ecstatic. Chicken entrails are messy, paper and pencil are neat and tidy. Each is ineffective...but it gives a gambler something to clutch at that doesn't draw flies.
In fact, past history of a roulette wheel means nothing ... except for a biased wheel and let's face it, ain't none of them around anymore. Yet the gambler's belief system remains, it is that belief system that lets the gambler think he has control over the next spin because of his knowledge of useless history.
The chart in Baccarat is precise, the "chart" in craps is more a mental image than a physical one. A gambler approaches the table and notes the chip banks, the place bet area, the spirit of the crowd and the comments made to him by the dealers. And now he has a "mental chart" of 'Choppy, but decidedly better on the Don'ts'.
The gambler thinks he has somehow gained a greater measure of control over the events about to unfold... the gamblers dream!
Someone approaching a MiniBacc table could be handed yesterday's chart and if the floorperson said 'I've been keeping track all morning just waiting for you to arrive", the new player would be ecstatic. Chicken entrails are messy, paper and pencil are neat and tidy. Each is ineffective...but it gives a gambler something to clutch at that doesn't draw flies.
September 14th, 2013 at 2:45:09 PM
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Quote: FleaStiffA gambler approaches the table and notes the chip banks, the place bet area, the spirit of the crowd and the comments made to him by the dealers.
LOL - that's exactly what I do.
September 14th, 2013 at 3:14:19 PM
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Quote: ontariodealerOf all the things that come up on these boards and all the things I have seen over the years, the most useless is charting.
Charting is a wonderful tool to show what happened. Charting in craps will not show what will happen.
Unfortunately, some confuse charting in craps with charting in the other big casino -- the stock and commodity markets.
Charting in the stock and commodity casinos really can help predict the future prices. Charting the results at a craps table cannot.
If you are at a craps table and want to chart your results using a particular set of the dice, go ahead.
If you are at a craps table and want to chart the results of virgin shooters, go ahead.
If you are at a craps table and want to chart the results of don't shooters, go ahead.
But all of those charts will only show what happened in the past, and cannot predict what will happen in the future.
September 14th, 2013 at 4:02:46 PM
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Quote: AlanMendelson
But all of those charts will only show what happened in the past, and cannot predict what will happen in the future.
I quite agree, predictions are impossible where random
results are concerned. Educated guessing is a different
story, though. Many players use charting to make guessing
the next outcome more accurate. Never think that charting
is totally useless. If it was as worthless as some
people think, it would be abandoned rather quickly, and it
hasn't been. There are some very good bac players who
do pretty well with it.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 14th, 2013 at 5:14:22 PM
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Quote: EvenBobNever think that charting
is totally useless. If it was as worthless as some
people think, it would be abandoned rather quickly, and it
hasn't been.
Does this mean that the belief that a shooter will 7-out when the stick man changes is not useless either?
In my case, when the stickman changes it's time for a horn bet. I must be using different charts.
September 14th, 2013 at 7:55:41 PM
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But as anyone who plays in those financial arenas should know, so much of the charting depends on where one starts and where it ends. Same for craps, but to a virtually incalculable degree.Quote: AlanMendelsonUnfortunately, some confuse charting in craps with charting in the other big casino -- the stock and commodity markets. Charting in the stock and commodity casinos really can help predict the future prices. Charting the results at a craps table cannot.
September 15th, 2013 at 2:31:39 AM
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Quote: SanchoPanzaBut as anyone who plays in those financial arenas should know, so much of the charting depends on where one starts and where it ends. Same for craps, but to a virtually incalculable degree.
Good point. All of the charting experts (technicians) discuss charting the financial markets for at least 18 months and some go as long as five years. I personally use five year charts, and short 90-day charts can give you false signals.
Now, if you want to apply that to craps, consider this: over the long term (five years, three years, one year) charting of craps tables is meaningless because over the long term the numbers will fall right where they are supposed to.
Those who chart craps tables for a session or two are like the 90-day chartists in the financial markets -- and are likely to fall victim to false, short term trends.
So, I propose that no one should advocate charting craps tables unless they can produce and act on charts of at least 3 years time. Then let's see what they say about hot numbers, cold numbers, etc. LOL
September 15th, 2013 at 6:48:02 AM
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Quote: ontariodealerOf all the things that come up on these boards and all the things I have seen over the years, the most useless is charting.
Quote: EvenBobNever think that charting
is totally useless. If it was as worthless as some
people think, it would be abandoned rather quickly, and it
hasn't been.
I assume this is some kind of meta-troll, so no comment.
Quote: AlanMendelsonUnfortunately, some confuse charting in craps with charting in the other big casino -- the stock and commodity markets.
In the financial markets, you're competing against other participants, so you need to assess their tendencies. Assume you've calculated a particular stock's fair value at $20. You'd probably be happy to pay $18, but if your charts and technical tools suggest a further decline to $15, you can enhance your potential profit by waiting to buy.
Poker has similar characteristics. Charting your opponents' tendencies is critical to success.
Financial markets and poker are immensely more complex than craps or baccarat. It's fascinating that folks devote so much effort to analyzing negative games, when they could instead be channeling their energies toward something financially productive. IMO.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
September 15th, 2013 at 10:16:55 AM
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I'm not sure what I would be "charting" at a poker table, but I agree poker is more complex with more variables and factors than games such as craps and roulette and video poker and blackjack and the complexities of poker probably do come close to the complexities of the investing markets.
September 15th, 2013 at 10:55:19 AM
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Quote: AlanMendelsonI'm not sure what I would be "charting" at a poker table ....
I may not understand how you guys are defining the term, but as a poker player it's helpful to observe and remember the tendencies of your opponents, while also being aware of how previous action influences their perceptions of your tendencies. For reasons of discretion, typically the "charting" is done mentally rather than with an actual notepad at the table, although there are no such concerns for online players, who commonly use tracking software to assist their recollection.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
September 15th, 2013 at 11:55:31 AM
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Quote: gpac1377I assume this is some kind of meta-troll, so no comment.
Calling someone a meta-troll is your idea of no
comment? If so, what does a real comment
from you look like.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 15th, 2013 at 12:07:06 PM
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Quote: EvenBobCalling someone a meta-troll is your idea of no
comment? If so, what does a real comment
from you look like.
It wasn't an insult. I thought you were trolling the trolls.
It's hard to follow the context considering how endlessly these issues have been debated here, but I accept assertions that are validated by math. I dispute the ones that are invalidated by it.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
September 15th, 2013 at 12:17:19 PM
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Quote: gpac1377I may not understand how you guys are defining the term, but as a poker player it's helpful to observe and remember the tendencies of your opponents, while also being aware of how previous action influences their perceptions of your tendencies. For reasons of discretion, typically the "charting" is done mentally rather than with an actual notepad at the table, although there are no such concerns for online players, who commonly use tracking software to assist their recollection.
Charting in the financial markets usually follows price and volume. Charting on a craps table can be numbers and passes. I wouldn't know what to chart at a poker table except to keep track of how players play... whether they only play big cards or pairs, or how they bet.
In the financial markets charting of prices has become an art where past patterns are used to predict future prices. I say it's an "art" because the same chart can be interpreted various ways by different "technical analysts."
I happen to follow the art as I learned it from Stan Weinstein going back to the early 1980s when I was a reporter in Miami and frequently interviewed him for hte news. We became friends and in addition to studying his books he also gave me "lessons" on the side. I think he's the best.
He also told me that you could chart anything. I once applied his charting techniques to "passes" at a craps table but what I found was that the sample was just too small, unlike the charts that you have when you look at stocks or commodities.
September 15th, 2013 at 12:38:52 PM
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Quote: AlanMendelsonHe also told me that you could chart anything.
Stan Weinstein's advisory service is beyond my price range as far as I know, but I do listen to him when he appears (occasionally) on Jim Puplava's Financial Sense podcast. Just on that basis, Weinstein seems to be one of the more credible technical analysts.
But obviously I would question the claim that charting is universally applicable.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
September 15th, 2013 at 12:48:03 PM
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Quote: gpac1377It wasn't an insult. I thought you were trolling the trolls.
.
I don't even know what that means. When you make
a comment outside of somebody's area of knowledge,
you automatically get labeled a troll. It gets very
wearisome.
Quote: gpac1377I accept assertions that are validated by math. I dispute the ones that are invalidated by it..
At least you admit your limitations.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 15th, 2013 at 1:13:58 PM
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Quote: EvenBobAt least you admit your limitations.
Thanks, it took many years before I could publicly acknowledge my inadequacy.
I do apologize for assigning a viewpoint to you without sufficient evidence. I should have skimmed through your prior output for clarification.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
September 15th, 2013 at 1:16:30 PM
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Quote: gpac1377
I do apologize for assigning a viewpoint to you without sufficient evidence.
Why do opinions need evidence, are we being peer reviewed
or something?
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 15th, 2013 at 1:29:33 PM
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Quote: EvenBobWhy do opinions need evidence, are we being peer reviewed
or something?
We are ALL your peers on this board.
Posting an opinion that you cannot back up is fair game for criticism.
"What, me worry?"
September 15th, 2013 at 1:35:41 PM
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Quote: MrVWe are ALL your peers on this board.
Peer; one that is of equal standing with another.
So you're in GR8's peer group? Big of you to admit it..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
