Poll

8 votes (33.33%)
9 votes (37.5%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
2 votes (8.33%)
2 votes (8.33%)
2 votes (8.33%)
3 votes (12.5%)

24 members have voted

7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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July 31st, 2013 at 9:55:21 AM permalink
Quote: NewToCraps

Looks like it means back to the drawing board a bit.
I resect both your cooments as well as others here - alot.
I may have to come up with a "jackpot" bet to compete with the Fire bet and small tall .. darn SHFL and Galaxy.
Back to work .... tomorrow maybe I'll have a better idea as the saying goes.

Thanks. Jim

The higher the jackpots the lower the hit frequencies.
Craps players still want action and wins.
As a Craps player and Craps Dealer I do like the idea of the bet.
The idea changes IMO should be around the lose on a 7 or 11 winner on the very next roll after a point win.
To me that sucks.

I would only want to win if the next point established was a repeat. Sounds right.
Even at 20 to 1 down to 9 to 1 adds fun to the very next point to be established.

Or you can even have the next point to be established say point winner was a 4 ,
players win the bet if the next point established is a 4 or a 10.
This would lower the payoffs, (like 10,6,4)
but the house edge would be lower than a one roll prop bet (except the field)
and the hit frequencies would be higher.

Good Luck
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
Joined: Feb 20, 2010
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July 31st, 2013 at 10:21:54 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Okay, market research time. Which of the following would you make/not make?

a) a $5 Hard Pass bet to win $400 (80-to-1) at 9.1% edge?
b) a $5 Hard Pass bet to win $425 (85-to-1) at 3.5% edge?
c) a $5 Hard Pass bet to win $1125 right back or $125 otherwise, at 9.1% edge?
d) a $5 Hard Pass bet to win $750 right back or $250 otherwise, at 11.9% edge?
e) a $5 Hard Pass bet to win $1000 right back or $200 otherwise, at 4.60% edge?

I assume (b) and (e) are yes, but what about the others?




A component of the bet that Paradigm did not mention is the PERCEPTION of the bet. In other words, How often do I THINK the bet will win, understanding that my perception usually carries more weight than the math. I know the math is right, but my PERCEPTION needs to be that I can win this bet.

(My story about the 12s at GVR makes this point. I would NEVER recommend playing the 12, but the PERCEPTION was that 12s were showing up way too often, so I thought playing the trend made sense for the next 30 rolls. And for that time it worked out just fine.)

So, for Hard Pass, my first issue is my perception is that a hard way does not roll that often on a come out roll. I KNOW they happen, and I have thrown them often, but way too many times this bet would be an INSTANT loser, which is a turnoff for me.
So, my perception is, most of the time I am going to lose my bet right away. With that condition, I am not playing a bet with very much of a HE. So I'm not sure I would play this at any of the options above.
However, if I was on a table, and saw people getting paid on this bet, I 'might' get more interest.

So ME, to your question, it's not the payouts or the HE that is not doing it for me on this bet. It is my perception that I would lose way too many bets on the very first throw, even though I bet the math says otherwise.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
Paradigm
Paradigm
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July 31st, 2013 at 11:55:54 AM permalink
ME, my vote is to either go with either the 85-1 simple hard way/hard way win event or if you add the "right back" feature to the bet, make the lowest pay equal 40-1 or higher and adjust your higher pay to whatever gets you into a 6-7% HE proposition.

For what it is worth, this simple bet concept makes it over the hurdle of providing higher pays than are currently available. Same with AceCraackers Double D side bet. To me these both have something to offer. I agree with Raleigh, perception is important, but Hard Way Pass, Fire Bet, Double D.....they are all "a dollar and a prayer" type situations. The point on Hard Way Pass is that you will lose on the initial roll 5 out of 6 times (I think?) and that may be a tough perception hurdle for players.

Next step is marketing these bets and getting them on the felt with an operator. It feels like these individual side bets would be hard to get on the felt one at a time.

Think of the marketing power of having a "Bonus Craps" install from Galaxy that offered Small/Tall/All, Hard Way Pass & Double D all for a single lease rate. Galaxy cuts a deal with ME & AA, adds those two bets to their Small/Tall/All offering in order to truly offer a true array of "Bonus Craps" betting options and has a package of Craps side bets to compete with the single Fire offering from SHFL.

As an operator I would think you would rather put this package of bonus bets on your craps table vs. just the Fire Bet. Small/Tall/All is pretty good on its own, but in a package with Double D and the Hard Way Pass you also get a "Fire" type bet in Double D and another prop bet in the middle that pays 80-1+, the only drawback is both of the additions focus on Hard Ways.

I think I would chose this package over the Fire Bet as an option if I wanted to add to the craps experience at my property. PaiGowDan needs to get on this :-)!
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
Joined: Feb 20, 2010
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July 31st, 2013 at 12:14:35 PM permalink
Quote: Paradigm

ME, my vote is to either go with either the 85-1 simple hard way/hard way win event or if you add the "right back" feature to the bet, make the lowest pay equal 40-1 or higher and adjust your higher pay to whatever gets you into a 6-7% HE proposition.



Once again, Paradigm has hit the mark, especially with the latter suggestion.
$5 bet, on Come out.
2-2 is rolled. My bet is alive.
If 2-2 comes right back, I win a LARGE amount.
If any other number, other than easy 4 or 7 is rolled, I can only win the lower 40-1 amount, but that is still a decent payout.
rolls continue. If easy 4 , or 7, I lose.
If 2-2 rolls to make the point, I win $200.

Bet is easy to understand, quick to set up, easy to see when you win and lose.
Bring the HE in to align with the 7% Small.Tall.All and as suggested, bundle it with that bet.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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July 31st, 2013 at 12:33:50 PM permalink
Quote: NewToCraps



WOW ... thanks for the excellant response ... I will digest the numbers, you are too fast for my knowledge....LOL

I tried to get a picture of the layout to show up, but the formatting code didn't work. The bets are located just above the place bet locations. Another "4" is just above the lay area of the place "4", another "5" is just above the lay area of the place "5', etc. I did not want to have a lammer used for purposes of getting the patent to go through easier. Some examiners would say that a pervious patent taught the use of a lammer to track a bet, if I understand how they can look at things. Plus a lammer involves more dealer participation of moving it, etc.

Any other number on the come out losses (I'll go back and re write that section to clarify it) so that there are 3 winning events and 33 lossing events.

Thanks so much for your response. Jim



You're very welcome!

I'm going to tell you the interesting thing about the Stay 4/10, the probability and House Edge is exactly the same as with the 2, 12 or any hard hop. The payout would be exactly the same, lose $20 or win $600, based on the most common pay I have seen of 30 to 1.

I'm also going to say that I like your bet better than that overall, but I see both upsides and downsides to both:

The Good

1.) I don't know precisely why, but your, "Stay," bet just seems more winnable. I think it could be because of reason number two, which is:

2.) Your stay bet is a multi-roll bet composed of two stages, if a player absolutely must eat the House Edge offered by your bet, at least your bet has a 5/6 chance of the player not being beaten after one roll.

3.) There's also a build-up and anticipation for a player to survive Stage One of your bet, now it is time for one roll, this is where it gets decided. The climax is quick, definitive, and very sexy. I still wouldn't touch it because of the House Edge.

The Bad

1.) The House Edge still sucks, it absolutely blows. The only worse bet you're likely to find on a given table is the, "Any Seven," or the, "Fire Bet." Maybe S+T+A is worse, don't remember, not looking at the moment.

2.) It seems that you wish to command a $5.00 Minimum with your bet, which absolutely sucks given the House Edge. The minimum on a 2, 12 or any Hard Hop is generally $1.00 and that is what your minimum should be, given the House Edge.

3.) The House Edge on your 5/9 or 6/8 is WORSE than the Midnight, Snake Eyes or Hard Hops. GAH!

4.) Some people prefer to have their one-roll props just be one roll props, realizing the payout is the same (for those who ignore HE completely), some of them are still going to prefer the Midnight, Snake Eyes or any Hard Way Hops.

5.) People can also bet the Midnight, Snake Eyes or Hard Hops bets anytime they want, and more than one at a time, if they so choose. Your bet only allows for one number to be bet at a time.

Advice

I hope you don't take offense, but I'm going to determine the probabilities later for a Stay Bet that only loses if the Point is Missed, or if the Point is made, but a different Point is later established and come up with pays for same. A Come Out 7, 11 or Any Craps number will be ignored. The only Second Stage loss will be if a different point is established. Let's see what we can do there payout-wise, and with a House Edge under 10%. I'll get on that tonight, late.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
soulhunt79
soulhunt79
Joined: Oct 8, 2010
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July 31st, 2013 at 12:34:07 PM permalink
It feels too much like a hop bet to me that I actually don't have control over.

I assume I would be able to take this bet down?


In craps I seem to like the side bets that keep building up. I'm looking for that hot roll and I like the side bets to work with that concept.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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July 31st, 2013 at 1:20:09 PM permalink
I voted "ok and will play it" because I like exotic bets that go with a winning trend. It's why I also like the fire bet. I don't know "math" so I can't tell you if it's a good bet (but I don't think any bet at craps is a good bet) but I like the concept. We've all seen repeaters. Heck, especially when players have made three or four numbers on the fire bet they seem to repeat and repeat.
NewToCraps
NewToCraps
Joined: Jun 16, 2013
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July 31st, 2013 at 1:54:57 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

I voted "ok and will play it" because I like exotic bets that go with a winning trend. It's why I also like the fire bet. I don't know "math" so I can't tell you if it's a good bet (but I don't think any bet at craps is a good bet) but I like the concept. We've all seen repeaters. Heck, especially when players have made three or four numbers on the fire bet they seem to repeat and repeat.



That was a lot of my thought on it - being new to craps it sure seemed like my fire bets were having the same point number rolled over and over.
I am going to fix the math based on comments here, and time will tell if it will ever make it onto a table.
Learned Craps in 2013 .... Developed and have a PATENT on Craps "Back On Bet" side bet ... Working on Craps game variations hope to have patents in 2018 - Second Chance Craps and Sub-Crap-tion ... A completely new dice game idea is next - D.. Dice D......
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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July 31st, 2013 at 2:43:10 PM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

Once again, Paradigm has hit the mark, especially with the latter suggestion.
$5 bet, on Come out.
2-2 is rolled. My bet is alive.
If 2-2 comes right back, I win a LARGE amount.
If any other number, other than easy 4 or 7 is rolled, I can only win the lower 40-1 amount, but that is still a decent payout.
rolls continue. If easy 4 , or 7, I lose.
If 2-2 rolls to make the point, I win $200.

Bet is easy to understand, quick to set up, easy to see when you win and lose.
Bring the HE in to align with the 7% Small.Tall.All and as suggested, bundle it with that bet.


That's exactly how option (e) behaves, actually. Here's a rules summary:

Hard Pass with Right Back Bonus:
1) Come out roll: establish a hard point (hard 4, 6, 8, or 10) or lose the bet. The bet survives 1 in 9 come outs.
2) First roll after come out: pass the hard way and bet pays Right Back Bonus of 200-1 ($1000 on $5)
3) Any other roll after come out: pass the hard way and the bet pays normal pay of 40-1 ($200 on $5)
4) Pass the easy way or 7-out: bet loses.
House edge is 4.6%. Chance of winning the 200-1 Right Back pay is 1 in 324; chance of winning the 40-1 pay is 1 in 123. Overall is 1 in 89.

Thoughts?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
Joined: Feb 20, 2010
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July 31st, 2013 at 4:46:10 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

That's exactly how option (e) behaves, actually. Here's a rules summary:

Hard Pass with Right Back Bonus:
1) Come out roll: establish a hard point (hard 4, 6, 8, or 10) or lose the bet. The bet survives 1 in 9 come outs.
2) First roll after come out: pass the hard way and bet pays Right Back Bonus of 200-1 ($1000 on $5)
3) Any other roll after come out: pass the hard way and the bet pays normal pay of 40-1 ($200 on $5)
4) Pass the easy way or 7-out: bet loses.
House edge is 4.6%. Chance of winning the 200-1 Right Back pay is 1 in 324; chance of winning the 40-1 pay is 1 in 123. Overall is 1 in 89.

Thoughts?



The HE is in the range I would consider playing the bet, but I personally am still hung up on my perception factor. I don't believe in my history that I see a point being set by a hardway roll, 1 out of every 9 Come out rolls. But I will admit that I have never needed to pay attention to it before, so it could be happening and I am just not noticing it. And yes, this is very subjective, and not a reliable input, but nonetheless, it controls my betting to some extent.

That is what is inherently beautiful with the Small/Tall/All bet. Anyone who has played craps can instantly envision rolls where we have watched EVERY number come up multiple times, all why we sat and waited, and waited, for the pass line bet to resolve.

The Pete Repeat bet took advantage of another thing we see, which is the repeater point. Personally, I like to see the repeaters (the shooter already proved they could make the point, load 'em up), unless of course there is a Fire bet in play.

Your bet is offering a way to cash in for a good payday, on something that should happen once every couple of hours, perhaps (assuming 60 rolls/hr). I certainly don't doubt your math, I'm just having a hard time relating it to my previous play.

We have some of AHigh's roll data in other threads. It might be neat to make a $5 bet each comeout roll on some of his data, and see how this bet would have done.

It wouldn't be too hard to code a WinCraps session to count the number of times you set a point with a hardway, and also count the number of times the point loses, wins easy, and wins hardway. That could be some interesting data. Of course, if you run it for 1M rolls, it will come out just as your math predicts, so I would run it a few times at a 400 roll limit (which is roughly a 4-5 hour real session) and see how many wins it has.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!

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