New Craps Bet Survey

Quote: NewToCraps

Don't you have to subtract the losing bet ... $20 times 30-1 is $600 plus your original $20 minus the $39 is $581 ???

No. You started this with $20 on the place 4 bet. At the end you end up with $620.
On your bet, you start with $20 and end up with $660. Got to compare apple to apple etc..

Quote: NewToCraps

I don't take offense at all ... you have taught me how to figure HE, where I was way off previously. I really appreciate your comments.

The reason I have it set up as a table minimum is that the wager boxes look similar and are located by the place bet wager boxes. I see it as a "place bet on steroids" type of bet. Also, when dealers ask a player where to move a previous place bet wager once a point is established on that number, why not give them another option to say "move it to the stay bet". I think in terms of place bets either being $5 or $6, so I thought in the same terms for my Stay Bet.

I wish my .jpg would have showed up in the original posting (not sure what I did wrong with formatting code) ... a picture is worth a thousand craps chips.

Thanks again, Jim

You're welcome, and I'm glad you didn't take offense.

In any event, you have taken the payouts and have now done something awesome with them, meaning the sub-3% HE's. I'm all over it, get it on a Table, and let's do this thing! For $5, I'm on your liberal payout schedule, I'm not touching anything over 3% with more than a White, though.

Quote: MathExtremist

...Are you a hardway bettor? Based on what you wrote earlier you may not be, and if that's so then you're probably not paying much attention to whether numbers roll easy or hard, just what the totals are....

I am not much of a hardway bettor. I do bet them occasionally. I do have pretty good number recognition and recall of what numbers have been rolling during a session though, and in fact, when I do play the hardways, it is because I have seen quite a few have already been rolled. And I know I have rolled back to back hardway numbers on more than one occasion. Last January it was three hard fours in a row, and no I was not playing the hard 4.

I will say the bet has my interest now, but like Mission said, if I keep seeing my bet lose on a bunch of comeout rolls in a row, I am going to get discouraged.

I put my other Craps side bet out on the site - looking for comments on it. Also, if you like either one or not, which is better ?

Quote: RaleighCraps

I am not much of a hardway bettor. I do bet them occasionally. I do have pretty good number recognition and recall of what numbers have been rolling during a session though, and in fact, when I do play the hardways, it is because I have seen quite a few have already been rolled. And I know I have rolled back to back hardway numbers on more than one occasion. Last January it was three hard fours in a row, and no I was not playing the hard 4.

I will say the bet has my interest now, but like Mission said, if I keep seeing my bet lose on a bunch of comeout rolls in a row, I am going to get discouraged.

That's a fair critique. The question is how frequently must your bet survive, in this structure, to keep your interest? There's only so much you can do without neutering the payouts. Here are some stats for Mission's suggestion of making the bet not lose on comeouts:

Quote: Mission146

A.) What could you do to the smaller payout (leaving the big boy at 200 to 1) if you only had the bet lose on the Come Out to a non-hard point, with Any Crap, Seven and Yo being irrelevant on the Come Out?
or
B.) If you did the same as A, but dropped the payout to 100 to 1 for the big boy, what would you be able to put the smaller payout at?

There's not enough money for option A (200-1 right back) but option B can be 100-1 on a Right Back winner, 30-1 on a later winner, and no-action on any comeout resolution (2, 3, 7, 11, 12). In that version, for every 9 comeouts, 3 are no action, 1 survives, and the other 5 are losses. That yields a 10.3% edge.

Or go one step further and make the bet win or lose on the comeout:
Hard Pass, version 3.1a (or something)
a) Comeout winner 7 or 11 pays 2-1
b) Comeout craps loses
c) Hard Pass right back winner pays 60-1
d) Hard Pass later pays 10-1
e) Any easy point, easy winner, or 7-out loses.
This version has a 5.56% edge, same as the 2x/2x Field. Overall win frequency is now 1 in 4.3, with the bulk of that (2 in 9) obviously coming from the 2-1 payout on the comeout.

The house would probably require a $5 minimum at that point given the 2-1 lowest pay, and for a $5 wager you'd stand to win:
$10 on a comeout winner,
$50 on a Hard Pass winner, and
$300 on a Hard Pass Right Back winner.
Those are nice easy-to-pay numbers, no more than 3 chips, and now the bet survives or outright wins every 3 comeouts.

How about now -- is that version something you put $5 on every time the shooter comes out?

I am playing pass line with odds. I am not making this or any other sucker bets.

KB1

Quote: NewToCraps

I put my other Craps side bet out on the site - looking for comments on it. Also, if you like either one or not, which is better ?

This one.

Quote: MathExtremist

There's not enough money for option A (200-1 right back) but option B can be 100-1 on a Right Back winner, 30-1 on a later winner, and no-action on any comeout resolution (2, 3, 7, 11, 12). In that version, for every 9 comeouts, 3 are no action, 1 survives, and the other 5 are losses. That yields a 10.3% edge.

Too high, but let me ask you this, if you left it at 30-1 on the latter, what happens to the House Edge if a Hard Point established is made the Easy Way and pushes? Or, what would happen if you did that, but made the payout on the small 25 to 1?

I think the three no action, one survival and five losses out of nine is just fine. I understand that only one CO of nine reaches stage two, either way, but now only 55.5% of the bets are going to be killed immediately. I think it's important because it is a multi-roll Proposition, so you don't want them going down in one roll nearly 90% of the time.

Quote:

Or go one step further and make the bet win or lose on the comeout:
Hard Pass, version 3.1a (or something)
a) Comeout winner 7 or 11 pays 2-1
b) Comeout craps loses
c) Hard Pass right back winner pays 60-1
d) Hard Pass later pays 10-1
e) Any easy point, easy winner, or 7-out loses.
This version has a 5.56% edge, same as the 2x/2x Field. Overall win frequency is now 1 in 4.3, with the bulk of that (2 in 9) obviously coming from the 2-1 payout on the comeout.

That's not bad, but not really the same kind of jackpot win one would expect bucking a House Edge of over 5%. I think what has been described above is probably better, it's not about seeing Stage Two constantly, or winning on the Come Out, just not instantly losing so often.

Although, I probably wouldn't play it also because I already win on the CO with my PL bet, so that's kind of meh, even at 2-to-1. I like your original idea, just not getting kicked in the face in one roll greater than 50% of five consecutive attempts. It's really not that bad if 33% of CO's do nothing.

Quote:

The house would probably require a $5 minimum at that point given the 2-1 lowest pay, and for a $5 wager you'd stand to win:
$10 on a comeout winner,
$50 on a Hard Pass winner, and
$300 on a Hard Pass Right Back winner.
Those are nice easy-to-pay numbers, no more than 3 chips, and now the bet survives or outright wins every 3 comeouts.

How about now -- is that version something you put $5 on every time the shooter comes out?

They might require it, but they wouldn't get it from me, not at a House Edge higher than Roulette with me already having money on the Pass Line, with odds, if a point ends up being made.

Quote: MathExtremist

Hard Pass, version 3.1a (or something)
a) Comeout winner 7 or 11 pays 2-1
b) Comeout craps loses
c) Hard Pass right back winner pays 60-1
d) Hard Pass later pays 10-1
e) Any easy point, easy winner, or 7-out loses.
This version has a 5.56% edge, same as the 2x/2x Field. Overall win frequency is now 1 in 4.3, with the bulk of that (2 in 9) obviously coming from the 2-1 payout on the comeout.

The house would probably require a $5 minimum at that point given the 2-1 lowest pay, and for a $5 wager you'd stand to win:
$10 on a comeout winner,
$50 on a Hard Pass winner, and
$300 on a Hard Pass Right Back winner.
Those are nice easy-to-pay numbers, no more than 3 chips, and now the bet survives or outright wins every 3 comeouts.

How about now -- is that version something you put $5 on every time the shooter comes out?

Now you are getting a bet that I might play (the 5% HE is a negative, but I play the STA bet at 7% so.....)

Positives:
It lines with my Pass Line bet. I win on 7-11 comeout, I lose on craps.
I get paid on the bet, mostly on the 2-1 Comeout wins, but that is how the penny slots work.... pay little, pay often.
I can get paid $300 for my $5 if a Hard Pass completes. Worth $5 to try it
I'm still alive to get paid $50 if the bet resolves with a harway later

Negatives:
For people who play craps checks (never for me) they now have to up their craps check bet to hedge this bet too. May detract a bit
slows down the come out rolls a bit (but so does reloading the STA bet, and I enjoy that bet)
I don't think the bet is going to survive the Comeout roll enough to be interesting. It will be exciting when it does, but frustrating getting to that point.

Let's look at the STA bet, as I play it. $5 $5 $5 - so $15 invested
I can win $175 on the Small
I can win $175 on the Tall
I can win $875 on the ALL
I can win $1,225 if both Small and Tall hit.
ANY 7 rolled, I lose the bet
-------------------------------------------------------------
Now let's play your bet for $15
On a 7-11, I win $30
On a 2-3-12, and any easy number, I lose the bet.
On back to back Hardway point winner, I win $900
On a hardway point, and a hardway winner later, I win $150
-------------------------------------------------------------

A $15 hardway would pay me either $135 or $105.

So the $150 is still better than I could get on a straight hardway bet, but I have to hit the hardway twice.
I can get a $900 pay for $15, on a back to back. I think this would happen 1 out of 324 rolls, and I have a 1 in 36 chance of winning the $900 after the first hardway sets the point.
I have a 10:22 chance of winning $30 on the Comeout Roll.
I have a 22:10 chance of losing my $15 bet on the Comeout Roll.
I have a 4:36 chance of my bet surviving through the comeout roll.

This is my reluctance with the bet. 10 ways to win, 22 ways to lose, 4 ways for the bet to remain active.
Too close to acting like a hop bet.

Quote: MathExtremist

That's a fair critique. The question is how frequently must your bet survive, in this structure, to keep your interest? There's only so much you can do without neutering the payouts. Here are some stats for Mission's suggestion of making the bet not lose on comeouts:


There's not enough money for option A (200-1 right back) but option B can be 100-1 on a Right Back winner, 30-1 on a later winner, and no-action on any comeout resolution (2, 3, 7, 11, 12). In that version, for every 9 comeouts, 3 are no action, 1 survives, and the other 5 are losses. That yields a 10.3% edge.

Or go one step further and make the bet win or lose on the comeout:
Hard Pass, version 3.1a (or something)
a) Comeout winner 7 or 11 pays 2-1
b) Comeout craps loses
c) Hard Pass right back winner pays 60-1
d) Hard Pass later pays 10-1
e) Any easy point, easy winner, or 7-out loses.
This version has a 5.56% edge, same as the 2x/2x Field. Overall win frequency is now 1 in 4.3, with the bulk of that (2 in 9) obviously coming from the 2-1 payout on the comeout.

The house would probably require a $5 minimum at that point given the 2-1 lowest pay, and for a $5 wager you'd stand to win:
$10 on a comeout winner,
$50 on a Hard Pass winner, and
$300 on a Hard Pass Right Back winner.
Those are nice easy-to-pay numbers, no more than 3 chips, and now the bet survives or outright wins every 3 comeouts.

How about now -- is that version something you put $5 on every time the shooter comes out?

Is there somewhere a thread that explains your Hard Pass bet so I can follow all the discussions on it. I can see it has something to do with hard numbers and pass line bets.

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Sorry ... stuck enter key

Quote: NewToCraps

Is there somewhere a thread that explains your Hard Pass bet so I can follow all the discussions on it. I can see it has something to do with hard numbers and pass line bets.

I was looking for that myself.
I know his website has some info on the bet, but the last time I went there (what 6 months)
it was down (the site) and I really never returned
thanks

Here is ME's site Olympian Gaming
There was a problem at one point, but it has been back up for a while now.

Check out his Twist'em Game and the demo as well, it is pretty fun!

Quote: Paradigm

Here is ME's site Olympian Gaming
There was a problem at one point, but it has been back up for a while now.

Check out his Twist'em Game and the demo as well, it is pretty fun!

Thanks ....

Quote: Paradigm

Here is ME's site Olympian Gaming
There was a problem at one point, but it has been back up for a while now.

Check out his Twist'em Game and the demo as well, it is pretty fun!

Great stuff! I love the demos!

1.) Royal Replay

Royal Replay is awesome, except I think that the player should get to pick his held cards on the top hand. The optimal decision is obvious, of course, in cases where there is more of one than another, but in cases where there are the same amount of Royal cards for a suit, maybe a player prefers a certain suit. If not that, then maybe a player just gets a, "Feeling," about one suit as opposed to another. I'd just stick with Spades, when that was the best play, then Clubs, Hearts and Diamonds only if there were more of those than something else.

It just seems almost pre-determined when you don't get to personally decide what is held there.

2.) Bad Beat Blackjack

This is probably the only Blackjack Variant I've seen better than, "Just friggin' Blackjack." What's the House Edge? Oh, that's right, I don't care!!! Coolest game ever!

I finally got the layout to show up in the original post. A picture is worth a thousand words chips.

I also re-wrote the post so it might be easier to understand. (I know that doesn't change the bet structure, just wanted to be clear on how the bet works).

I also analyised the HE and came to a middle of the ground HE - higher than a player might want, but high enough to maybe get the casino to put it on a table.
They may still be revised, again.

Thanks for ALL the comments !!!!!

Be sure to vote on the survey if you haven't.

Jim

Your Standard Deviation numbers are way off. They are 5.42, 4.33 , and 3.49 for 10, 9 and 8 respectively assuming I didn't mess up somewhere.

Quote: miplet

Your Standard Deviation numbers are way off. They are 5.42, 4.33 , and 3.49 for 10, 9 and 8 respectively assuming I didn't mess up somewhere.

Thanks. I thought it may be off, and was waiting for someone to correct me. First time I ever tried to calculate them and must have had the formula wrong. Knew it didn't seem right.

Quote: NewToCraps

I finally got the layout to show up in the original post. A picture is worth a thousand words chips.

I also re-wrote the post so it might be easier to understand. (I know that doesn't change the bet structure, just wanted to be clear on how the bet works).

I also analyised the HE and came to a middle of the ground HE - higher than a player might want, but high enough to maybe get the casino to put it on a table.
They may still be revised, again.

Thanks for ALL the comments !!!!!

Be sure to vote on the survey if you haven't.

Jim

Well, we're back to maybe for a buck. 2.78% of $5.00 is more than 8-9% of $1.00, just sayin'.

Quote: Mission146

Well, we're back to maybe for a buck. 2.78% of $5.00 is more than 8-9% of $1.00, just sayin'.

I can see your point, so I have showed multiple options for Payout Ratios and House Edge. I'm know which I would want, but the Casinos won't talk to me with the lower ones.

But if someone would put a buck on it, that is positive for me... at least someone would try the bet.