etr102
etr102
Joined: Mar 3, 2013
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July 25th, 2013 at 11:00:14 AM permalink
I'm sorry if this topic has been beaten to death already.

First of all, I'm not foolish enough to think that any strategy can alter the HE in any way. I know for a fact that in the long term, Craps is negative expectation no matter what betting strategy I come up with.

I don't know the correct math terminology for this, but I'm just looking for the best option to give me the best chance of being ahead a couple hundred dollars short term, and then me having the intelligence to walk away before I give it all back.

I generally play at Caesars Windsor. Windsor offers 5x odds on all points and typically has $5 tables on weeknights. When the table is $5, Caesars Windsor allows you to round up to $30 in odds on the 5 and 9 to allow the math to work out evenly on payouts.

When playing free craps simulators where money is no object, I seem to have success using a Continuous Come system. $5 Pass line bet, max odds, $5 Come bet, Max Odds, Come bet, Max Odds, rinse and repeat until the 7-out. Ideally, I like to pull all my odds down when I get a feeling that the 7 is coming, but I'm not delusional enough to think that I can actually predict the future.

The disaster is when I establish a pass line point and 5 come line bets, all with max odds, the 7 shows up and $190 disappears. Thankfully this rarely happens. The most common scenario is the 7 out comes up early causing a $30-50 loss, or several repeating numbers come up causing several wins. If I have the foresight to pull down all my odds after a nice series of repeating numbers but before the 7 shows up, there can be a nice big profit.

Since I live 5 minutes from the Casino, having the occasional short session isn't that big of a deal. Like I said, I just want the best chance of having a short term gain so that I can quite while I'm ahead.

Is the Continuous Come an effective strategy for this? Or is a strategy where the Come bets stop after 3 numbers are covered more effective?

What kind of bankroll would you suggest for Continuous Come on a $5 5x (all points) table?
cowboy
cowboy
Joined: Apr 22, 2013
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July 25th, 2013 at 12:05:01 PM permalink
My biggest wins have come from betting this way, but they've been rare.

I have run simulations of some different betting styles and with the following conditions have found the four highest win percentages to be as follows:

Conditions:
$5 table, $200 bankroll, leave when up $250 (the "target") or were close and then lost one hundred back, or got busted, or have played about 5 hours (based on 110 rolls per hour).

Results: (Win % is the percent of sessions where a profit occurred)
Place the 6 and 8, never press:
Win % 40.26 Avg Win $154.93 Avg Loss $136.11 Hit Target 10.6% Busted 47%

Place the 6 and 8, never press, working on come-out:
Win % 39.77 Avg Win $155.68 Avg Loss $136.61 Hit Target 10.7% Busted 47.6%

Pass plus two Come bets, 1X odds:
Win % 39.62 Avg Win $171.56 Avg Loss $141.88 Hit Target 13.3% Busted 49.8%

Pass plus two Come bets, 1X odds, working on come-out:
Win % 39.41 Avg Win $176.70 Avg Loss $143.51 Hit Target 14.1% Busted 50.8%

Interesting thing here is that working the come-out did not raise the win percentage but did increase profit when profit occurred.
drjohnny
drjohnny
Joined: Sep 2, 2012
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July 26th, 2013 at 1:09:59 PM permalink
Quote: etr102

I'm just looking for the best option to give me the best chance of being ahead a couple hundred dollars short term, and then me having the intelligence to walk away before I give it all back.



Consider playing the don't with 10x odds.

I've completed over 10,000 practice rolls at home and I have turned an imaginary bankroll of $1600 into $2100 every single session without busting out. Some sessions were a real grind after going $1K into the hole, but I've always managed to hit my goal of $500 profit.

7craps completed several 1M session WinCraps simulations of turning $2000 into $2500 before busting out and his success rate was about 78%.

So far this strategy is working better than expected in the casino and I'm averaging at least $200 profit per hour at the $5 tables without ever coming close to busting out.
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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July 26th, 2013 at 2:42:05 PM permalink
Quote: drjohnny

7craps completed several 1M session WinCraps simulations
of turning $2000 into $2500 before busting out and his success rate was about 78%.

And that 78% success rate can easily be applied to any number of sessions played.
Let's say drjohnny claims to have won 48 out of 50 sessions.
would any one believe him at face value??

Well that is not even close to 78% but by my book, I would have to believe him as it is within the bell curve.
The standard deviation of 78% over 50 trials would be 5.8583% (right?)
sd of p =_1bsd/sqrt_N
_1bsd = sqrt(p*q)

so a 3SD range is close to 95.6% or 48 out of 50 (96 out of 100)
of course, 480 out of 500 session wins would be a way different story if DrJohnny claimed that one.
one can do the math or just a binomial probability calculator would work too.

go johnny go!
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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July 27th, 2013 at 5:15:18 AM permalink
Quote: 7craps

would any one believe him at face value??



That's a touchy subject, there's always some who don't buy it and throw in a bit of envy with that disbelief.

I'll take his claims, with a grain of salt. If money was on the line, it'd be "trust but verify"

the only thing that sounds 'off' to where I wonder, is what I'm interpreting as a lack of volatility in his reports... then again, there's all this "home statistics" stuff that IMO isn't worth the powder to blow it up [g]. At the casino, we have seen some of that discipline wilt already, no?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
etr102
etr102
Joined: Mar 3, 2013
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July 27th, 2013 at 10:00:33 AM permalink
I gave the continuous come a try last night and did okay. $300 bankroll. It's impossible to know when the 7 is coming up, but I decided to pull all of my odds down once I got 'uncomfortable' with the amount of exposed money on the table (ie 5 or so numbers covered, all with 5x odds). I ended up missing out on 1 or 2 winning come bets (who's odds were removed) before the 7 showed up. The amount of money I would have won keeping my odds up longer was significantly less than $170+ I would have lost keeping them up.

I was up $240 within about 20 minutes and I walked away satisfied with my profit.

Obviously the above scenario isn't the guaranteed outcome, but so far, so good.

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