First of all, I'm not foolish enough to think that any strategy can alter the HE in any way. I know for a fact that in the long term, Craps is negative expectation no matter what betting strategy I come up with.
I don't know the correct math terminology for this, but I'm just looking for the best option to give me the best chance of being ahead a couple hundred dollars short term, and then me having the intelligence to walk away before I give it all back.
I generally play at Caesars Windsor. Windsor offers 5x odds on all points and typically has $5 tables on weeknights. When the table is $5, Caesars Windsor allows you to round up to $30 in odds on the 5 and 9 to allow the math to work out evenly on payouts.
When playing free craps simulators where money is no object, I seem to have success using a Continuous Come system. $5 Pass line bet, max odds, $5 Come bet, Max Odds, Come bet, Max Odds, rinse and repeat until the 7-out. Ideally, I like to pull all my odds down when I get a feeling that the 7 is coming, but I'm not delusional enough to think that I can actually predict the future.
The disaster is when I establish a pass line point and 5 come line bets, all with max odds, the 7 shows up and $190 disappears. Thankfully this rarely happens. The most common scenario is the 7 out comes up early causing a $30-50 loss, or several repeating numbers come up causing several wins. If I have the foresight to pull down all my odds after a nice series of repeating numbers but before the 7 shows up, there can be a nice big profit.
Since I live 5 minutes from the Casino, having the occasional short session isn't that big of a deal. Like I said, I just want the best chance of having a short term gain so that I can quite while I'm ahead.
Is the Continuous Come an effective strategy for this? Or is a strategy where the Come bets stop after 3 numbers are covered more effective?
What kind of bankroll would you suggest for Continuous Come on a $5 5x (all points) table?
I have run simulations of some different betting styles and with the following conditions have found the four highest win percentages to be as follows:
$5 table, $200 bankroll, leave when up $250 (the "target") or were close and then lost one hundred back, or got busted, or have played about 5 hours (based on 110 rolls per hour).
Results: (Win % is the percent of sessions where a profit occurred)
Place the 6 and 8, never press:
Win % 40.26 Avg Win $154.93 Avg Loss $136.11 Hit Target 10.6% Busted 47%
Place the 6 and 8, never press, working on come-out:
Win % 39.77 Avg Win $155.68 Avg Loss $136.61 Hit Target 10.7% Busted 47.6%
Pass plus two Come bets, 1X odds:
Win % 39.62 Avg Win $171.56 Avg Loss $141.88 Hit Target 13.3% Busted 49.8%
Pass plus two Come bets, 1X odds, working on come-out:
Win % 39.41 Avg Win $176.70 Avg Loss $143.51 Hit Target 14.1% Busted 50.8%
Interesting thing here is that working the come-out did not raise the win percentage but did increase profit when profit occurred.
I'm just looking for the best option to give me the best chance of being ahead a couple hundred dollars short term, and then me having the intelligence to walk away before I give it all back.
Consider playing the don't with 10x odds.
I've completed over 10,000 practice rolls at home and I have turned an imaginary bankroll of $1600 into $2100 every single session without busting out. Some sessions were a real grind after going $1K into the hole, but I've always managed to hit my goal of $500 profit.
7craps completed several 1M session WinCraps simulations of turning $2000 into $2500 before busting out and his success rate was about 78%.
So far this strategy is working better than expected in the casino and I'm averaging at least $200 profit per hour at the $5 tables without ever coming close to busting out.
And that 78% success rate can easily be applied to any number of sessions played.Quote: drjohnny
7craps completed several 1M session WinCraps simulations
of turning $2000 into $2500 before busting out and his success rate was about 78%.
Let's say drjohnny claims to have won 48 out of 50 sessions.
would any one believe him at face value??
Well that is not even close to 78% but by my book, I would have to believe him as it is within the bell curve.
The standard deviation of 78% over 50 trials would be 5.8583% (right?)
_1bsd = sqrt(p*q)
so a 3SD range is close to 95.6% or 48 out of 50 (96 out of 100)
of course, 480 out of 500 session wins would be a way different story if DrJohnny claimed that one.
one can do the math or just a binomial probability calculator would work too.
go johnny go!
would any one believe him at face value??
That's a touchy subject, there's always some who don't buy it and throw in a bit of envy with that disbelief.
I'll take his claims, with a grain of salt. If money was on the line, it'd be "trust but verify"
the only thing that sounds 'off' to where I wonder, is what I'm interpreting as a lack of volatility in his reports... then again, there's all this "home statistics" stuff that IMO isn't worth the powder to blow it up [g]. At the casino, we have seen some of that discipline wilt already, no?
I was up $240 within about 20 minutes and I walked away satisfied with my profit.
Obviously the above scenario isn't the guaranteed outcome, but so far, so good.