Risk of ruin for playing the Dark Side with 20x odds
January 8th, 2015 at 9:19:14 AM
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This is an old thread, but I just wanted to chime in some sanity in case anyone is still active here or comes across this thread looking for tips. THERE IS NO STRATEGY TO AVOID COLD STREAKS/MAXIMIZE HOT STREAKS. This is because streaks aren't real - we just see an apparent pattern in the actual randomness. You have to understand that each roll is independent, so no current roll can be influenced by any prior roll. The only "winning" strategy in a game with limited player funds and < 50% player edge (even if only .01% below 50%) is not to play. However, if you choose to play despite these facts (hoping to win money), just max your bet with odds given your bankroll and hope for the best. For example, if you have $600 and the casino allows 5x odds, bet $100 on the pass and take full 5x odds ($500) and pray. If you choose to go DP, then figure out the proper DP bet to allow you to max your odds, and do that. By betting more times with less money, you decrease variance, which guarantees (over time) that the house edge will become manifest.
January 8th, 2015 at 9:38:19 AM
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A gambling streak's good fortune, you win again and again,
The math predicts how often, nothing can tell you when. -Alan Krigman
Rest in peace, Al.
The math predicts how often, nothing can tell you when. -Alan Krigman
Rest in peace, Al.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
January 8th, 2015 at 9:43:38 AM
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I suppose I am picking on a guy who is in fact being helpful to some of the weary souls out there wandering in the wilderness, but I wanted to make some points. Take it as constructive criticism, and disagree if you like.
I would modify this statement. Streaks can be very real; however, they only mean something in the past and do not predict the future in Craps.
This does give you your best chance of winning, but also your best chance of losing it all. It's just an odd thing to do. I think maybe you are wandering away from the idea that it should be entertainment, not any kind of smart move, any way you want to play.
I concede your main point but I believe even the Wizard would say I have a point.
Otherwise I think you are giving sound advice.
Quote: nodicemanstreaks aren't real
I would modify this statement. Streaks can be very real; however, they only mean something in the past and do not predict the future in Craps.
Quote: nodicemanif you choose to play despite these facts (hoping to win money), just max your bet with odds given your bankroll and hope for the best
This does give you your best chance of winning, but also your best chance of losing it all. It's just an odd thing to do. I think maybe you are wandering away from the idea that it should be entertainment, not any kind of smart move, any way you want to play.
I concede your main point but I believe even the Wizard would say I have a point.
Otherwise I think you are giving sound advice.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
January 8th, 2015 at 10:22:35 AM
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I definitely agree with your second point (max chances of going busto), but as you point out, I was merely suggesting the best way to play if your goal is to win money (not for entertainment). Hell, for entertainment, go nuts and bet on whatever your gut says, right? :)
Your first point I think is just semantics, though. I take "streak" to mean a future result occurring *because of* past results. If it's not possible to determine the existence of a streak a priori (i.e., 4 points made, so we know that the shooter is more likely to make the next point than he otherwise would be, and thus we press our bets hard), then who cares if there is a "streak"?
I don't at all take your points to be "picking on me" -- I always like good discussion with intelligent people (which you clearly are).
Your first point I think is just semantics, though. I take "streak" to mean a future result occurring *because of* past results. If it's not possible to determine the existence of a streak a priori (i.e., 4 points made, so we know that the shooter is more likely to make the next point than he otherwise would be, and thus we press our bets hard), then who cares if there is a "streak"?
I don't at all take your points to be "picking on me" -- I always like good discussion with intelligent people (which you clearly are).
January 17th, 2015 at 12:09:34 PM
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Quote: darthvaderI absolutely agree on the merits of the darkside. FWIW, I have found playing the DC even better than the DP. First of all, playing the DC doesn't get the nasty looks that you often get from the DP (if such a thing matters to you). But practically speaking, there is a huge advantage to playing the DC: It is impossible to get beaten down by a single shooter hitting multiple 7s on the come out roll. Darth
What's the difference between getting beaten down by a single shooter or by multiple shooters? The chances of losing DP bets to a comeout seven or DC bets to a seven-out are the same, just different timing.
I'm just getting back into craps, haven't messed with WinCraps Pro in some time. I'll have to re-learn the autobetting system, but it's much easier to program with "Pro". When I was last playing, I played DC as a "stealth" way of playing the dark side.
More later.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers,
Alan Shank
"How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
January 17th, 2015 at 1:33:36 PM
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Quote: goatcabin
More later.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Hope so! Learned a lot from your previous visitations.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
January 18th, 2015 at 12:49:35 PM
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Thanks.
One of the problems with simulating craps systems is that you need a stopping condition other than busting or reaching a win goal. If you don't have one, the simulation becomes completely unrealistic. Back at the beginning, 7craps posted simulations in which drjohnny either busted or won $500; with 10X odds, the average number of decisions was 361, and that is just the average; don't know what the range was.
In real play, fatigue, hunger, calls-of-nature or just boredom are going to stop one from continuing before either of the money conditions is met. So, I am going to write a WinCraps auto-bet file with three stopping conditions: 1) not enough $$$ left for a $5 DP with full odds; 2) $500+ ahead; or 3)some number of DP bets resolved. The question is, what should the "time" limit be? This is tricky, because the rate of rolls/hour is quite variable, and I don't know how long drjohnny can/wants to play if neither of the first two conditions is met.
To simulate duration, we have to make an assumption about rolls/hour. In WinCraps Pro, the default value for rolls/hour is 120, or two rolls per minute. If we use that figure, then four hours would be 480 rolls, which would be in the neighborhood of 140 decisions. You can use a number of rolls for a stopping condition, as well.
So, what do you think?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
One of the problems with simulating craps systems is that you need a stopping condition other than busting or reaching a win goal. If you don't have one, the simulation becomes completely unrealistic. Back at the beginning, 7craps posted simulations in which drjohnny either busted or won $500; with 10X odds, the average number of decisions was 361, and that is just the average; don't know what the range was.
In real play, fatigue, hunger, calls-of-nature or just boredom are going to stop one from continuing before either of the money conditions is met. So, I am going to write a WinCraps auto-bet file with three stopping conditions: 1) not enough $$$ left for a $5 DP with full odds; 2) $500+ ahead; or 3)some number of DP bets resolved. The question is, what should the "time" limit be? This is tricky, because the rate of rolls/hour is quite variable, and I don't know how long drjohnny can/wants to play if neither of the first two conditions is met.
To simulate duration, we have to make an assumption about rolls/hour. In WinCraps Pro, the default value for rolls/hour is 120, or two rolls per minute. If we use that figure, then four hours would be 480 rolls, which would be in the neighborhood of 140 decisions. You can use a number of rolls for a stopping condition, as well.
So, what do you think?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers,
Alan Shank
"How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
January 19th, 2015 at 8:16:47 AM
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I do not see *that* as a problem.Quote: goatcabinThanks.
One of the problems with simulating craps systems is that you need a stopping condition other than busting or reaching a win goal.
Why do you see it as one?
Are you concerned about time?
All craps players should know that
any finite bankroll
will be ruined
after playing craps long enough (your mileage will vary)
Oh, you mean coding the simulation correctly.
Yes sir, that IS a problem for many, I agrees two squared.
I disagree.Quote: goatcabinIf you don't have one, the simulation becomes completely unrealistic.
on the completely unrealistic part that is.
Ah, I see you are over 30 years old and play a very small guitar
I play one too, I posted a photo of it one time.
I see he did 10X and 20XQuote: goatcabinBack at the beginning, 7craps posted simulations in which drjohnny either busted or won $500; with 10X odds, the average number of decisions was 361, and that is just the average; don't know what the range was.
Eye sea this two ..
Hi drjohnny!
I think yous gots a super idea!Quote: goatcabin<snip> <snip>So, what do you think?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Just watch out for simulations done by Ahigh.
("watch out" = hehe and not sheshe)
I simulated too and used a Markov Chain also, in Excel and another program, to calculate because I can and could and should and breakfast is now served.
got to goes
snow is about cold and fun
Have fun!
I think this program did just fine
remember
All bets are a single unit
This sim did not count a tie as a decision...
Simulation of Craps Don't Pass Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 20
Session Bankroll . . . = 400.00
Win goal to quit session= 100.00
Max. Decisions to quit = 140
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Starting Random seed . = 4320001
------------------------------------
Simulation Results per Session
------------------------------------
Avg. No. games played . = 73.06
Avg. No. games won . . = 36.03
Avg. No. games lost . . = 37.03
Avg. No. games tied . . = 2.09
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 253.67
Avg. amount bet on Odds = 1420.31
Bankroll was busted . . = 3.470% of the time ( 34696)
Win goal was met . . . = 66.183% of the time ( 661831)
Bankroll decreased . . = 30.813% of the time
Bankroll increased . . = 69.085% of the time
Avg (mean) end bankroll = 399.33 (change of -.67)
Median ending bankroll = 499.24 (change of 99.24)
Std-dev ending bankroll = 175.75
Skew of ending bankroll = -1.30
Kurtosis end bankroll = -7.65
Std-dev # games played = 53.39
Median # games played = 58.09
Average expectation EVI = -.920%
Average expectation EVR = -.045%
this one counts ties as a decision
good call
Simulation of Craps Don't Pass Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 20
Session Bankroll . . . = 400.00
Win goal to quit session= 100.00
Max. Decisions to quit = 140
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Starting Random seed . = 4320001
------------------------------------
All bets are a single unit
------------------------------------
Simulation Results per Session
------------------------------------
Avg. No. games played . = 74.06
Avg. No. games won . . = 35.49
Avg. No. games lost . . = 36.51
Avg. No. games tied . . = 2.06
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 250.00
Avg. Total amount bet . = 72.01
Avg. amount bet on Odds = 1403.61
Bankroll was busted . . = 3.303% of the time ( 33028)
Win goal was met . . . = 65.553% of the time ( 655531)
Bankroll decreased . . = 31.303% of the time
Bankroll increased . . = 68.651% of the time
Avg (mean) end bankroll = 398.76 (change of -1.24)
Median ending bankroll = 499.24 (change of 99.24)
Std-dev ending bankroll = 174.89
Skew of ending bankroll = -1.29
Kurtosis end bankroll = -7.63
Std-dev # games played = 53.39
Median # games played = 60.06
Avg Odds change in b/r = -0.22
Average expectation EVI = -1.729%
Average expectation EVR = -0.084%
Simulation of Craps Pass Line Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 20
Session Bankroll . . . = 400.00
Win goal to quit session= 100.00
Max. Decisions to quit = 140
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Starting Random seed . = 4320001
------------------------------------
All bets are a single unit
------------------------------------
Simulation Results per Session
------------------------------------
Avg. No. games played . = 74.85
Avg. No. games won . . = 36.90
Avg. No. games lost . . = 37.95
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 252.65
Avg. Total amount bet . = 74.85
Avg. amount bet on Odds = 957.53
Bankroll was busted . . = 3.786% of the time ( 37862)
Win goal was met . . . = 64.651% of the time ( 646514)
Bankroll decreased . . = 32.288% of the time
Bankroll increased . . = 67.610% of the time
Avg (mean) end bankroll = 399.11 (change of -0.89)
Median ending bankroll = 499.23 (change of 99.23)
Std-dev ending bankroll = 176.75
Skew of ending bankroll = -1.23
Kurtosis end bankroll = -7.44
Std-dev # games played = 53.71
Median # games played = 62.78
Avg Odds change in b/r = 0.16
Average expectation EVI = -1.194%
Average expectation EVR = -0.087%
the distribution by the number of Bets.
For the # of rolls multiply by 3.375 I say
this is from a direct calculation
Markov Chain style
values in Cols 2,3 are % and ties are counted as a decision
remember
All bets are a single unit
This sim did not count a tie as a decision...
Simulation of Craps Don't Pass Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 20
Session Bankroll . . . = 400.00
Win goal to quit session= 100.00
Max. Decisions to quit = 140
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Starting Random seed . = 4320001
------------------------------------
Simulation Results per Session
------------------------------------
Avg. No. games played . = 73.06
Avg. No. games won . . = 36.03
Avg. No. games lost . . = 37.03
Avg. No. games tied . . = 2.09
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 253.67
Avg. amount bet on Odds = 1420.31
Bankroll was busted . . = 3.470% of the time ( 34696)
Win goal was met . . . = 66.183% of the time ( 661831)
Bankroll decreased . . = 30.813% of the time
Bankroll increased . . = 69.085% of the time
Avg (mean) end bankroll = 399.33 (change of -.67)
Median ending bankroll = 499.24 (change of 99.24)
Std-dev ending bankroll = 175.75
Skew of ending bankroll = -1.30
Kurtosis end bankroll = -7.65
Std-dev # games played = 53.39
Median # games played = 58.09
Average expectation EVI = -.920%
Average expectation EVR = -.045%
this one counts ties as a decision
good call
Simulation of Craps Don't Pass Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 20
Session Bankroll . . . = 400.00
Win goal to quit session= 100.00
Max. Decisions to quit = 140
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Starting Random seed . = 4320001
------------------------------------
All bets are a single unit
------------------------------------
Simulation Results per Session
------------------------------------
Avg. No. games played . = 74.06
Avg. No. games won . . = 35.49
Avg. No. games lost . . = 36.51
Avg. No. games tied . . = 2.06
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 250.00
Avg. Total amount bet . = 72.01
Avg. amount bet on Odds = 1403.61
Bankroll was busted . . = 3.303% of the time ( 33028)
Win goal was met . . . = 65.553% of the time ( 655531)
Bankroll decreased . . = 31.303% of the time
Bankroll increased . . = 68.651% of the time
Avg (mean) end bankroll = 398.76 (change of -1.24)
Median ending bankroll = 499.24 (change of 99.24)
Std-dev ending bankroll = 174.89
Skew of ending bankroll = -1.29
Kurtosis end bankroll = -7.63
Std-dev # games played = 53.39
Median # games played = 60.06
Avg Odds change in b/r = -0.22
Average expectation EVI = -1.729%
Average expectation EVR = -0.084%
Simulation of Craps Pass Line Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 20
Session Bankroll . . . = 400.00
Win goal to quit session= 100.00
Max. Decisions to quit = 140
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Starting Random seed . = 4320001
------------------------------------
All bets are a single unit
------------------------------------
Simulation Results per Session
------------------------------------
Avg. No. games played . = 74.85
Avg. No. games won . . = 36.90
Avg. No. games lost . . = 37.95
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 252.65
Avg. Total amount bet . = 74.85
Avg. amount bet on Odds = 957.53
Bankroll was busted . . = 3.786% of the time ( 37862)
Win goal was met . . . = 64.651% of the time ( 646514)
Bankroll decreased . . = 32.288% of the time
Bankroll increased . . = 67.610% of the time
Avg (mean) end bankroll = 399.11 (change of -0.89)
Median ending bankroll = 499.23 (change of 99.23)
Std-dev ending bankroll = 176.75
Skew of ending bankroll = -1.23
Kurtosis end bankroll = -7.44
Std-dev # games played = 53.71
Median # games played = 62.78
Avg Odds change in b/r = 0.16
Average expectation EVI = -1.194%
Average expectation EVR = -0.087%
the distribution by the number of Bets.
For the # of rolls multiply by 3.375 I say
this is from a direct calculation
Markov Chain style
values in Cols 2,3 are % and ties are counted as a decision
| # of bets | Craps - Don't Pass - $5, 20X Lay Odds - with Push | Craps - pass - $5 - 20X odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 0 | 0.348048 |
| 4 | 0 | 1.159276 |
| 5 | 0.973317 | 2.404991 |
| 6 | 2.595512 | 3.961096 |
| 7 | 4.461012 | 5.480028 |
| 8 | 6.400641 | 7.150998 |
| 9 | 7.956203 | 8.705474 |
| 10 | 9.592329 | 10.383067 |
| 11 | 11.023486 | 11.887594 |
| 12 | 12.581827 | 13.496643 |
| 13 | 14.062638 | 14.911625 |
| 14 | 15.609459 | 16.406572 |
| 15 | 17.065504 | 17.720387 |
| 16 | 18.535846 | 19.110332 |
| 17 | 19.911849 | 20.327004 |
| 18 | 21.278595 | 21.610686 |
| 19 | 22.546341 | 22.734682 |
| 20 | 23.795312 | 23.920794 |
| 21 | 24.95401 | 24.960192 |
| 22 | 26.094858 | 26.057973 |
| 23 | 27.160435 | 27.020723 |
| 24 | 28.209572 | 28.038304 |
| 25 | 29.194469 | 28.931865 |
| 26 | 30.163344 | 29.877515 |
| 27 | 31.077184 | 30.708913 |
| 28 | 31.975392 | 31.589832 |
| 29 | 32.825705 | 32.36528 |
| 30 | 33.660625 | 33.187921 |
| 31 | 34.453486 | 33.91297 |
| 32 | 35.231432 | 34.68308 |
| 33 | 35.972457 | 35.362635 |
| 34 | 36.699232 | 36.085256 |
| 35 | 37.393472 | 36.723638 |
| 36 | 38.074165 | 37.403229 |
| 37 | 38.726107 | 38.004254 |
| 38 | 39.365232 | 38.64475 |
| 39 | 39.978851 | 39.211786 |
| 40 | 40.580358 | 39.816663 |
| 41 | 41.159137 | 40.352691 |
| 42 | 41.726479 | 40.92503 |
| 43 | 42.27349 | 41.432695 |
| 44 | 42.809711 | 41.975231 |
| 45 | 43.327674 | 42.456883 |
| 46 | 43.835459 | 42.972052 |
| 47 | 44.326788 | 43.429788 |
| 48 | 44.80852 | 43.919766 |
| 49 | 45.275368 | 44.355459 |
| 50 | 45.733165 | 44.822193 |
| 51 | 46.177455 | 45.237524 |
| 52 | 46.613209 | 45.682761 |
| 53 | 47.036665 | 46.079241 |
| 54 | 47.452067 | 46.504556 |
| 55 | 47.856238 | 46.883546 |
| 56 | 48.252808 | 47.290359 |
| 57 | 48.63909 | 47.65309 |
| 58 | 49.018194 | 48.042685 |
| 59 | 49.387847 | 48.390271 |
| 60 | 49.75072 | 48.763814 |
| 61 | 50.104887 | 49.097268 |
| 62 | 50.452645 | 49.455819 |
| 63 | 50.792362 | 49.776061 |
| 64 | 51.126018 | 50.120585 |
| 65 | 51.45223 | 50.428457 |
| 66 | 51.772706 | 50.759836 |
| 67 | 52.086273 | 51.056107 |
| 68 | 52.394408 | 51.375148 |
| 69 | 52.696117 | 51.660519 |
| 70 | 52.992679 | 51.967963 |
| 71 | 53.283252 | 52.243082 |
| 72 | 53.568943 | 52.539608 |
| 73 | 53.849041 | 52.80507 |
| 74 | 54.124506 | 53.091302 |
| 75 | 54.394737 | 53.347654 |
| 76 | 54.66057 | 53.624172 |
| 77 | 54.921494 | 53.871918 |
| 78 | 55.17824 | 54.139254 |
| 79 | 55.430375 | 54.378863 |
| 80 | 55.678537 | 54.637509 |
| 81 | 55.922361 | 54.869413 |
| 82 | 56.162405 | 55.119827 |
| 83 | 56.398362 | 55.344426 |
| 84 | 56.630718 | 55.587033 |
| 85 | 56.859217 | 55.804699 |
| 86 | 57.084285 | 56.039893 |
| 87 | 57.305707 | 56.250974 |
| 88 | 57.523859 | 56.47912 |
| 89 | 57.738559 | 56.683938 |
| 90 | 57.950139 | 56.905379 |
| 91 | 58.158447 | 57.104234 |
| 92 | 58.363776 | 57.319289 |
| 93 | 58.566 | 57.512462 |
| 94 | 58.765378 | 57.721428 |
| 95 | 58.961805 | 57.909183 |
| 96 | 59.155511 | 58.112339 |
| 97 | 59.34641 | 58.29492 |
| 98 | 59.534704 | 58.492527 |
| 99 | 59.720326 | 58.670164 |
| 100 | 59.903455 | 58.862466 |
| 101 | 60.084034 | 59.035375 |
| 102 | 60.262226 | 59.222602 |
| 103 | 60.437984 | 59.390986 |
| 104 | 60.611453 | 59.573352 |
| 105 | 60.782597 | 59.737401 |
| 106 | 60.951545 | 59.915109 |
| 107 | 61.11827 | 60.075001 |
| 108 | 61.282886 | 60.248243 |
| 109 | 61.445374 | 60.404147 |
| 110 | 61.605837 | 60.573101 |
| 111 | 61.764261 | 60.725175 |
| 112 | 61.920738 | 60.89001 |
| 113 | 62.075259 | 61.038405 |
| 114 | 62.227908 | 61.199281 |
| 115 | 62.37868 | 61.344138 |
| 116 | 62.52765 | 61.501204 |
| 117 | 62.674817 | 61.642656 |
| 118 | 62.820249 | 61.796056 |
| 119 | 62.963948 | 61.934228 |
| 120 | 63.105974 | 62.084097 |
| 121 | 63.246333 | 62.219109 |
| 122 | 63.38508 | 62.365573 |
| 123 | 63.52222 | 62.497539 |
| 124 | 63.657806 | 62.640718 |
| 125 | 63.791844 | 62.769744 |
| 126 | 63.924381 | 62.909754 |
| 127 | 64.055426 | 63.035941 |
| 128 | 64.185021 | 63.172889 |
| 129 | 64.313176 | 63.296334 |
| 130 | 64.43993 | 63.430324 |
| 131 | 64.565293 | 63.551117 |
| 132 | 64.689302 | 63.682246 |
| 133 | 64.811967 | 63.800476 |
| 134 | 64.933322 | 63.928836 |
| 135 | 65.053378 | 64.044584 |
| 136 | 65.172165 | 64.170265 |
| 137 | 65.289696 | 64.28361 |
| 138 | 65.405998 | 64.406695 |
| 139 | 65.521083 | 64.517711 |
| 140 | 65.634978 | 64.638281 |
| 141 | 65.747695 | 64.747039 |
| 142 | 65.859257 | 64.86517 |
| 143 | 65.969678 | 64.971739 |
| 144 | 66.078979 | 65.087503 |
| 145 | 66.187172 | 65.191947 |
| 146 | 66.294279 | 65.305414 |
| 147 | 66.400312 | 65.407795 |
| 148 | 66.50529 | 65.519031 |
| 149 | 66.609225 | 65.619409 |
| 150 | 66.712135 | 65.728477 |
| 151 | 66.814033 | 65.826907 |
| 152 | 66.914935 | 65.933868 |
| 153 | 67.014852 | 66.030405 |
| 154 | 67.113802 | 66.135317 |
| 155 | 67.211794 | 66.230011 |
| 156 | 67.308846 | 66.33293 |
| 157 | 67.404966 | 66.425832 |
| 158 | 67.50017 | 66.52681 |
| 159 | 67.594469 | 66.617967 |
| 160 | 67.687876 | 66.717055 |
| 161 | 67.780401 | 66.806513 |
| 162 | 67.872058 | 66.90376 |
| 163 | 67.962856 | 66.991562 |
| 164 | 68.052808 | 67.087015 |
| 165 | 68.141923 | 67.173203 |
| 166 | 68.230214 | 67.266907 |
| 167 | 68.317689 | 67.351521 |
| 168 | 68.404361 | 67.44352 |
| 169 | 68.490237 | 67.526598 |
| 170 | 68.575329 | 67.616933 |
| 171 | 68.659646 | 67.698513 |
| 172 | 68.743197 | 67.787223 |
| 173 | 68.825992 | 67.867342 |
| 174 | 68.90804 | 67.954466 |
| 175 | 68.98935 | 68.033157 |
| 176 | 69.06993 | 68.118733 |
| 177 | 69.14979 | 68.196029 |
| 178 | 69.228937 | 68.280092 |
| 179 | 69.30738 | 68.356025 |
| 180 | 69.385127 | 68.43861 |
| 181 | 69.462186 | 68.513211 |
| 182 | 69.538565 | 68.594352 |
| 183 | 69.614272 | 68.667651 |
| 184 | 69.689314 | 68.747378 |
| 185 | 69.763698 | 68.819404 |
| 186 | 69.837433 | 68.89775 |
| 187 | 69.910525 | 68.96853 |
| 188 | 69.982981 | 69.045524 |
| 189 | 70.054808 | 69.115085 |
| 190 | 70.126013 | 69.190757 |
| 191 | 70.196603 | 69.259125 |
| 192 | 70.266585 | 69.333502 |
| 193 | 70.335964 | 69.400703 |
| 194 | 70.404748 | 69.473812 |
| 195 | 70.472942 | 69.539871 |
| 196 | 70.540553 | 69.611738 |
| 197 | 70.607587 | 69.676677 |
| 198 | 70.67405 | 69.747329 |
| 199 | 70.739948 | 69.811171 |
| 200 | 70.805286 | 69.880632 |
Sally Oh
"all gamblers are liars but not all liars are gamblers"
I Heart Vi Hart
January 19th, 2015 at 8:25:13 AM
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So NEVER!Quote: drjohnnyI would never be foolish enough to bet the pass and take 50x odds unless there were dice controllers at the table who consistently hit their points.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
January 19th, 2015 at 8:37:19 AM
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more in on the fun would be me answerQuote: goatcabinWhat's the difference between getting beaten down by a single shooter
or by
multiple shooters?
super question!
funny two
OK, what is the punch line?
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
January 19th, 2015 at 8:39:09 AM
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Mr. Shanks, be advised that Sally finds men irritating
Sally be advised that Goatcabin is a foe worth of your steel, and vice versa ...
Sally be advised that Goatcabin is a foe worth of your steel, and vice versa ...
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
January 19th, 2015 at 8:45:23 AM
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where have I ever said that?Quote: odiousgambitMr. Shanks, be advised that Sally finds men irritating
I am Sally
I see he looks like a pro and that is niceQuote: odiousgambitSally be advised that Goatcabin is a foe worth of your steel, and vice versa ...
He also has a nice singing voice too
Who would have thought
and
I LOVE men
Mr. Shank and goatcabin sounds like names from a spaghetti western not starring Clint
I like George Hilton
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
January 19th, 2015 at 9:01:06 AM
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Quote: mustangsallywhere have I ever said that?
Let me change that to:
she likes to get their, well, their goat!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
January 19th, 2015 at 10:27:37 AM
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Thank you, MustangSally. I shall pour over your results the rest of the day. I may have to look up cheese making for this Kurds and Whey stuff and try to figure out Kurtosis. And I know I'm going to have difficulty trying to figure out 76.03 games ... I having so seldom played 0.03 of a craps game. I wonder what that would be? Perhaps: "The dice are coming out, the dice are" would suffice as .03 of a craps game.
I do fear that at 20x my bankroll would last about five rolls.
Well, morning coffee first, then the library for a book on cheese making and then your program summary.
I do fear that at 20x my bankroll would last about five rolls.
Well, morning coffee first, then the library for a book on cheese making and then your program summary.
January 19th, 2015 at 11:15:54 AM
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Quote: mustangsallyI do not see *that* as a problem.
Why do you see it as one?
Are you concerned about time?
All craps players should know that
any finite bankroll
will be ruined
after playing craps long enough (your mileage will vary)
Oh, you mean coding the simulation correctly.
Yes sir, that IS a problem for many, I agrees two squared.
I disagree.
on the completely unrealistic part that is.
If you are interested in simulating sessions, rather than just letting the sim run until bust or win goal, you need to decide how many rolls or bets to end sessions that don't end the other two ways. So, a player goes to the casino once/week with $1600 and plays to DP with 10 or 20x odds, trying to win $500. How long is he/she willing to play if neither happens? Having decided that and estimating time by rolls or bet resolutions, the sim tells you what your chances are each time. Running a sim without sessions is sort of pointless, because you know how it will come out, as you say.
Quote: mustangsally
Ah, I see you are over 30 years old and play a very small guitar
I play one too, I posted a photo of it one time.
Yes, I am over 30, way over. One of the reasons I have not been playing craps or reading these forums is that I have been spending a lot of time with my band, "The Notorious Shank Brothers", since I retired.
Nice to "meet" you, Sally.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers,
Alan Shank
"How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
January 19th, 2015 at 11:18:26 AM
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Quote: mustangsally
Mr. Shank and goatcabin sounds like names from a spaghetti western not starring Clint
I like George Hilton
Sally
Goatcabin is from a sketch by John Cleese, formerly of Monty Python's Flying Circus.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers,
Alan Shank
"How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
January 19th, 2015 at 11:20:04 AM
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Quote: odiousgambitMr. Shanks, be advised that Sally finds men irritating
Sally be advised that Goatcabin is a foe worth of your steel, and vice versa ...
Shank, not Shanks, thanks.
Why "foe"?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers,
Alan Shank
"How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
January 19th, 2015 at 11:24:05 AM
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Quote: mustangsally
Simulation of Craps Don't Pass Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 20
Session Bankroll . . . = 400.00
Win goal to quit session= 100.00
Max. Decisions to quit = 140
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Starting Random seed . = 4320001
------------------------------------
Simulation Results per Session
------------------------------------
Avg. No. games played . = 73.06
Avg. No. games won . . = 36.03
Avg. No. games lost . . = 37.03
Avg. No. games tied . . = 2.09
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 253.67
Avg. amount bet on Odds = 1420.31
Bankroll was busted . . = 3.470% of the time ( 34696)
Win goal was met . . . = 66.183% of the time ( 661831)
Bankroll decreased . . = 30.813% of the time
Bankroll increased . . = 69.085% of the time
Avg (mean) end bankroll = 399.33 (change of -.67)
Median ending bankroll = 499.24 (change of 99.24)
Std-dev ending bankroll = 175.75
Skew of ending bankroll = -1.30
Kurtosis end bankroll = -7.65
Std-dev # games played = 53.39
Median # games played = 58.09
Average expectation EVI = -.920%
Average expectation EVR = -.045%
Sally Oh
This output looks similar to that posted by 7Craps; what software are you using?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers,
Alan Shank
"How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
January 19th, 2015 at 11:33:58 AM
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Quote: goatcabinWhy "foe"?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
you are correct, it should be foeman ... however, that is the sort of thing that sets Sally off LOL ... perhaps she will not be a foe at all, you wish
I assume you recognize this; actually I think 'Rumpole' was where I heard it recently, and it is used a lot by various, but I think [not sure] that Sir Walter Scott first used it,
Quote:Respect was mingled with surprise,
And the stern joy which warriors feel
In foeman worthy of their steel.
Canto V, stanza 10.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
January 20th, 2015 at 8:13:14 AM
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yes it doesQuote: goatcabinThis output looks similar to that posted by 7Craps; what software are you using?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
GAMBLSIM by Steve Fry
but I use an updated version that made a few corrections to the original (FORTRAN converted to Basic)
the original should work fine for this example
How come your Band's videos are not like this one (I mean style wise - I know you know the song)
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
January 20th, 2015 at 10:08:41 AM
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Quote: mustangsallyyes it does
GAMBLSIM by Steve Fry
but I use an updated version that made a few corrections to the original (FORTRAN converted to Basic)
the original should work fine for this example
I was a software engineer before I retired, so I have my own programs, written in C/C++ for relatively simple betting situations. For multiple bets, progressions, etc., I use WinCraps.
Quote: mustangsallyHow come your Band's videos are not like this one (I mean style wise - I know you know the song)
Sally
That would be because we are a Bluegrass band. I have never heard that song. I pretty much stopped listening to rock/pop music in 1970.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers,
Alan Shank
"How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
January 20th, 2015 at 10:38:45 AM
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you grew up in the 60s and Bus Stop was in 1966 by an English bandQuote: goatcabinThat would be because we are a Bluegrass band. I have never heard that song. I pretty much stopped listening to rock/pop music in 1970.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
not The Beatles, the Hollies
Your site says you played Bass in Rock bands and you had to cover 60s tunes and maybe even 50s too.
music is fun
so, where are your Pro sim results you said you might create?
please show your pro code too just so others can look it over
Thanks for sharing your website
The MonaLisa Twins are fun to watch and listen to in my opinion
I doubt they play bluegrass music but probably could
they have lots of talent
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
January 20th, 2015 at 1:57:43 PM
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Quote: mustangsallyyou grew up in the 60s and Bus Stop was in 1966 by an English band
not The Beatles, the Hollies
Your site says you played Bass in Rock bands and you had to cover 60s tunes and maybe even 50s too.
music is fun
Well, if I heard that song, I don't remember it.
Quote: mustangsallyso, where are your Pro sim results you said you might create?
please show your pro code too just so others can look it over
Here is the code. I believe this was originally written by Steen (author of WinCraps), but I adapted it. It is flexible, taking input for lots of variables.
' This file plays the DP (and odds if selected) until one of five
' things has occurred:
' - insufficient bankroll remains to make a DP bet (ruin)
' - a specified amount of action has transpired
' - a specified win goal has been reached
' - a specified # of rolls has been reached
' - a specified # of DP trials have transpired
'
' Insufficient bankroll remaining will be our definition of ruin.
' It's a forced termination due to an inability to continue making wagers
' The remaining criteria (action, win goal, time) are voluntary terminations.
' Use these together with beginning bankroll and bet size to see how
' your risk of ruin is affected.
'
' If you specify an amount of action then the final bets will be limited
' if necessary to avoid exceeded your action. E.g. If you specify $100 action
' and $30 bets then three $30 bets plus one $10 bet will be made.
'
' If you specify a number of rolls and an unresolved bet remains when
' the number of rolls has been reached then rolling will continue until
' the final bet resolves.
'
' Note that whenever the amount of action is less than your beginning
' bankroll your risk of ruin is zero. However, this does not mean your
' risk of loss is zero. Your risk of loss (and gain) will vary.
' As your risk of ruin changes, one or more other factors will also change
' such that the total loss divided by the total handle (house advantage)
' remains the same.
'
' On the configuration screen, make sure that negative amounts are NOT
' allowed on the Bankroll tab. If you intend to take odds then be sure to set
' your desired odds multiple on the Bets tab. Also if you want to play odds
' together with a limited amount of action then select "Manual" for the
' "Auto-adjust Bet Amounts" feature on the Auto-play screen
'
' Suggested use:
' - activate this autobet file and return to the game table
' - select NEW from the Game menu (uncheck all items except Retain Auto-bet files and Initialize)
' - answer the script questions when asked
' - start the hyper-drive
' - after the simulation has finished observe the Sessions Log
' - select "$ Bets Won/Lost (Net)" from the drop-down box
' - ruin (if any) can be observed on the left side of the histogram as
' any amount less than the minimum allowed bet minus beginning
' bankroll. e.g. If min bet on Configuration screen is 5 and beginning
' bankroll is 100 then any amount less than -95 is a ruin
' - in this example enter -96 in the box underneath the histogram just
' to the right of the words "$ Bets Won/Lost (Net)" and press enter
' a portion of the screen will appear with a red background
' - the remaining portion represents the sessions that were ruined
' - the number and % can be read in the lower left-hand corner
'
' Try running a number of sims varying one factor while holding the others
' constant to see how your risk of ruin is affected.
'
' An example: Suppose we ask the question, "What are the chances of
' losing a $50 bankroll before doubling it to $100 while using $10 bets?"
' Start the game and when queried answer the following: bankroll 50,
' action 0, win goal 100, sessions 0, rolls 0, DP 10, odds no
' After running the sim, the histogram for "$ Bets Won/Lost (Net)" will show
' only two outcomes - the loss of $50 or gain of $50. Use the movable carets
' to discover that the chance of losing $50 before winning $50 with $10
' bets is approximately 53%
'
' Another example: "What are the chances of losing a $100 bankroll with a
' maximum of $200 in action using $10 bets?"
' Start the game and when queried answer the following: bankroll 100,
' action 200, win goal 0, sessions 0, rolls 0, DP 10, odds no
' This time the histogram should show that approx. 3% of sessions
' will result in ruin. Repeat this using $400 in action and approx 12% will
' result in ruin. Repeat again with $200 action and take odds to discover
' that approx 23% of games will result in ruin.
'
' Many conclusions can be drawn from these simulations. For instance:
' increasing your action relative to your bankroll will increase your risk of ruin.
If
Initializing script
Then
Name CheckStack1 as "Size of each DP bet" :
Name CheckStack2 as "Total # of sessions to play" :
Name CheckStack3 as "#of completed sessions played" :
Name CheckStack4 as "Amount of action desired per session" :
Name CheckStack5 as "Remaining action to play this session" :
Name CheckStack6 as "Beginnning bankroll" :
Name CheckStack7 as "Win goal" :
Name CheckStack8 as "#of rolls desired per session" :
Name CheckStack9 as "#of desired DP trials per session" :
Name CheckStack10 as "#of completed DP trials this session" :
Name CheckStack11 as "# of busts" :
Name CheckStack12 as "# of goals reached" :
Name CheckStack13 as "# of timeouts" :
cs6.beginningbankroll = input("This autobet file plays DP bets (and odds if" & cr &
"activated) until one of five things has occurred:" & cr &
" " & cr &
"-- insufficient bankroll remains to make a DP bet" & cr &
"-- a specified amount of action has transpired" & cr &
"-- a specified win goal has been reached" & cr &
"-- a specified # of rolls has been reached" & cr &
"-- a specified # of DP trials have transpired" & cr &
" " & cr &
"What is your beginning bankroll?" & cr) :
cs4.actiondesired = input("How much action would you like in each game?" & cr &
"(enter zero if you don't want to set an action limit)" & cr) :
cs7.wingoal = input("What is your win goal?" & cr &
"(enter as a bankroll amount. e.g. if " &
"your goal is to win $50 and your bankroll is $100 then " &
"enter 150 here. Enter zero for no win goal.)" & cr) :
cs2.numsessionsdesired = input("How many sessions would you like to play?" & cr &
"(enter zero if you want to play continuously)" & cr) :
cs8.numrollsdesired = input("How many rolls would you like in each game?" & cr &
"(enter zero if you don't want to set a roll limit)" & cr) :
cs9.numtrialsdesired = input("How many DP trials would you like in each game?" & cr &
"(enter zero if you don't want to set a trial limit)" & cr) :
cs1.amountDPbet = input("How large would you like each DP bet to be?" & cr) :
Yes / No question "Would you like to play odds bets too?"
If Answer was YES Then AutoLay full odds = true Else AutoLay full odds = false EndIf
Bet $0 on cs11.busts :
Bet $0 on cs12.wingoals :
Bet $0 on cs13.timeouts :
EndIf
If
Beginning new session
Then
cs5.actionremaining = cs4.actiondesired :
Bet $0 on cs10.DPtrials :
ATM Deposit bankroll :
ATM Withdraw cs6.beginningbankroll :
GoTo "Flat bet"
EndIf
If
DontPass resolves
Then
Add $1 to cs10.DPtrials
EndIf
If
Next roll is a comeout roll
Then
GoTo "Flat bet"
EndIf
If
A point is established And
DontPassOdds is greater than $0
Then
GoTo "Odds bet"
Else
GoTo "Check status"
EndIf
: "Flat bet" :
' If a limited amount of action has been selected then limit DP
' bet as necessary to avoid exceeding desired action.
If
cs4.actiondesired is greater than $0 And
cs5.actionremaining is less than cs1.amountDPbet
Then
Bet 100% of cs5.actionremaining on DontPass
Else
Bet 100% of cs1.amountDPbet on DontPass
EndIf
If
cs4.actiondesired is greater than $0
Then
Subtract 100% of DontPass from cs5.actionremaining
EndIf
GoTo "Check status"
: "Odds bet" :
' Odds bet (if selected) has already been made. If a limited amount of
' action has been selected then limit odds here as necessary to avoid
' exceeding desired action.
If
cs4.actiondesired is greater than $0 And
DontPassOdds is greater than cs5.actionremaining
Then
Bet 100% of cs5.actionremaining on DontPassOdds
EndIf
If
cs4.actiondesired is greater than $0
Then
Subtract 100% of DontPassOdds from cs5.actionremaining
EndIf
: "Check status" :
If
DontPass is equal to $0
Or
(cs7.wingoal is greater than $0 And
Bankroll is greater than Or equal to cs7.wingoal)
Or
(cs8.numrollsdesired is greater than $0 And
# of rolls >= cs8.numrollsdesired And
Next roll is a comeout roll)
Or
(cs9.numtrialsdesired is greater than $0 And
cs10.DPtrials >= cs9.numtrialsdesired)
Then
Add $1 to cs3.numsessionsplayed :
If
cs2.numsessionsdesired is greater than $0 And
cs3.numsessionsplayed is equal to cs2.numsessionsdesired
Then
Stop AutoRolling / HyperDrive
EndIf
If
DontPass is equal to $0
Then
Add $1 to cs11.busts :
EndIf
If
(cs7.wingoal is greater than $0 And
Bankroll is greater than Or equal to cs7.wingoal)
Then
Add $1 to cs12.wingoals :
EndIf
If
(cs9.numtrialsdesired is greater than $0 And
cs10.DPtrials >= cs9.numtrialsdesired)
Then
Add $1 to cs13.timeouts :
EndIf
Start new session(preserve CheckStacks)
EndIf
Results later; I have to decide what/how to report.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers,
Alan Shank
"How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
January 21st, 2015 at 11:14:43 AM
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Quote: mustangsally
so, where are your Pro sim results you said you might create?
please show your pro code too just so others can look it over
Sally
I ran two sims, 20,000 sessions each, one with 10x odds, the other with 20x, using 140 resolved DP bets as the 3rd stopping condition in addition to winning $500 or losing the whole $1600. (Actually, in quite a few cases the final bankroll was between -$1596 and -$1600, i.e. not enough left to make a DP bet at the $5 table minimum. WinCraps adjusts the odds bet downward when there's not enough BR left to make a full odds bet, making sure the denominations allow correct payoff, of course. The highest ending bankroll can be greater than $500, up to $600 with 20x odds, since you can win $105 on a single bet.)
10x odds
----------
busts: 303 (1.5%)
reached goal: 8311 (41.6%)
max bets: 11386 (56.9%)
ahead: 55%
behind: 44.8%
even: .2%
mean net: -$5.91
net %: -0.097%
StDev net: $572
avg. rolls: 376
avg. bets decided: 183 (includes flat and odds)
20x odds
----------
busts: 3324 (16.6%)
reached goal: 13391 (67.0%)
max bets: 3285 (16.4%)
ahead: 13933 (69.7%)
behind: 6048 (30.2%)
even: 19 (0.1%)
mean net: +$15.24 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11
net %: +0.227%
StDev net: $836
avg. rolls: 217
avg. bets decided: 106 (includes flat and odds)
Needless to say, this surprised me. In looking at the Bet Results screen, set to "All Sessions", I see that the flat DP bets had a net loss, but just 1.09% considerably less than the 1.403% theoretical, and the odds bets won 0.29%.
This should not be interpreted as showing a positive expectation, however.
I ran my own program, a C++ program that is very fast but doesn't keep track of all the stuff WinCraps does, running it several times with different numbers of sessions, just letting the random number generator run, seeding it only at the beginning.
The 10,000-session run showed an avg. net of +$5.71, the others about the same magnitude, but negative. For 1,000,000 sessions, the avg. net was -$3.84, SD $841. I then tried 10,000-session runs starting with different seed numbers; some came out with positive results, some negative, including -$21.30.
It seems to me what's going on here is this: there is so much more money being bet on odds (over $128M for the 20,000 sessions) than on the flat bet (a little over $6000), that almost anything can happen. For 140 $5 DP laying 20x odds, the expectation is -$9.82, SD $1248, so it only takes a small fraction of a SD of positive variance to overcome the negative expectation. This is very close to an even bet.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers,
Alan Shank
"How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
September 25th, 2018 at 4:42:16 AM
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Quote: drjohnnySeems like quickly abandoning the Dark Side and making $25 place bets on the 6 & 8 immediately after a shooter makes his 1st point works much better than just waiting for the next shooter to come along.
Hot shooters who roll plenty of 6's & 8's should easily negate the money lost on the shooters who quickly seven out during their 2nd point without hitting either number.
I'll have to run more simulations to see how well this new strategy works...
I'm getting so fed up betting Pass Line and losing while everybody else is betting Don't Pass, what should I do? Oh, they kept passing the dice to me and I wiped them out and left me alone at the table!
Gonna have to figure out my 1 point dark side strategy, and flipping to PB 6 & 8 with a split from my next odds bet after the point is made.
