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FrankScoblete
FrankScoblete
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June 14th, 2013 at 8:54:14 AM permalink
[Note: This thread is about more than just dice control.]

There are serious misunderstandings when it comes to dice control (or dice influence). When I say someone can control the dice, it makes some readers think that one must be able to throw certain numbers all the time or select which number will come up next time or some such.

Not so. I wish it were but it is not. It would be a very rare (very, very, very rare) occasion when someone could do that – it could happen, yes, but it wouldn’t be something you’d see very often if ever and I doubt you’d ever see such a thing on a regular basis.

Let me make a compare and contrast.

Think about blackjack. A card counter might have a one percent edge overall. Now, as he is playing the count goes really high. At this moment he might have a three percent edge. Does that mean he must win the next hand? The next series of hands? No. Over time, yes, that three percent edge will win him the money in these counts and that three percent edge will overcome the house advantage at the game to give the card counter his overall one percent edge. (I hope I am clear on this.)

The same is relatively true when it comes to dice control. If a dice controller has a two percent edge that does not mean he can say, “The next series will be the following numbers.” If he is an on-axis shooter, then we know that certain numbers will be favored over time just as the card counter can be assured that his three percent edge in high counts will win him money over time. If the dice controller is a Hardway set, “let-me-reduce-the-seven” shooter then we should see a decline in the percentage of sevens over time.

These declines are not dramatic. You know they are happening when you record your SRR at practice; you know they are happening when you take the SmartCraps tests and see you have a good percent of axis control; and you really know you have the ability when you beat the casinos – again this will take place over time.

A two percent edge is small but strong enough to bring home the money. (I am using two percent merely as a device; some edges might be smaller; some higher.)

Now, there is a big difference between card counting and dice control. If the blackjack game you play today is the same exact game that will be played 20 years from now (same relative penetration, same rules, same bet spreads, etc) the card counter of the future and the card counter of today will have the same expectation. The probabilities in blackjack will not change if all things remain the same.

Sadly, this is not so when it comes to dice control. I saw this with the “Arm,” the best dice controller I ever saw. She was the most consistent and the most devastating shooter. Yet, as the years wore on and her arthritis kicked in, her shooting deteriorated and she quit playing. The “Arm” of 20 years before and the “Arm” on the day of her retirement from craps were two different shooters. Dice control is not stable, as is blackjack in the example above. It is far more dynamic.

The Babe Ruth who hit 60 home runs was not the Babe Ruth who limped off the field in his last game. Dice control is a physical activity with a mental component, just as in sports, but blackjack statistics are just statistics. You can be 21 years old or he can be 51 years old but that plus three count is a plus three count for both of you.

Now, let’s take a look at how throws work. With a two percent edge, you are not going to see “signs and wonders” every time you step to the tables. You aren’t going to see them most times when you step to the tables. You’ll see them on rare occasions. Good shooters, and I do know good shooters, essentially grind out their wins. They will have explosive nights, for good or ill; they will have nights where they bring home a little or a lot or they lose a little or a lot. But over time the money will be won by the dice controller.

So, go to the post by superrick that shows my shots from the Golden Touch DVD. Here is the link:

http://www.casinotube.com/casino-games/craps/golden-touch-craps-practice-8

Watch closely: At first, you might look at the shots and say, “The dice are often apart. They aren’t right next to each other. These must be random throws. I see no control.” Indeed some viewers wrote exactly that.

However, now look again at each throw shown. How many of them have the dice in a straight line with each other after they land – you could draw such a line between them with a ruler. How many of them would be one to three clicks off from being a straight line? How many are so far askew from each other that they are random?

You will see that most are in a straight line (think of drawing a straight line at the top of the “V”) or are one to three clicks away. The dice are basically coordinated with each other. [It is somewhat more complicated than this since both dice actual do movements. I take this up in detail in “Cutting Edge Craps.”]

Now, here is where some readers might take my comments above to mean that the throws that are in a straight line with each other; or throws that are one to three clicks away, must never be sevens if I am using the Hardway’s set which is the set I used for the DVD. Are all the results always non-sevens on all of these “V” throws.

No.

Even throws that look good can wind up being a seven. This is something many would-be dice controllers and critics don’t seem to understand. I can hit the ball to the center field fence and it gets caught – it’s the same out as someone popping up to the catcher. But one shot shows a hitter with power; the other does not (at least using one swing as a criteria).

Over time that hitter who is nailing the ball will hit the home runs and make the money. The same holds true for dice control. Those who can keep the dice coordinated will get the edge; those who can’t do this will simply be random rollers.

Also, keep in mind that even great throws can wind up being sevens and random rolls can wind up being anything but a seven (only 17 percent of the time will a seven show in a random game). This is why you must test yourself with the SRR and/or SmartCraps to prove that you really do have an edge and it isn’t your imagination wishing and hoping.

Still the contest is close. You must make the right bets and not fall into the traps. Many would-be dice controllers just can’t subdue the gambler in them.

Wait a second; if the contest is close, okay, what about those “tall tales” you tell, Mr. Scoblete?

Are these tales totally fictions and/or self-serving exaggerations in order to sell your books? What about the Captain’s 147 hand? Your 89 hand? Your 11 eights in 12 rolls and 26 eights in 45 rolls? Or Jerry “Stickman’s” 23 sixes in 28 rolls? Or Jerry “Stickman’s” 77 rolls before a seven? (The 78 roll was the seven.) What about all those tales?

Granted these do seem extraordinary because, in fact, they are extraordinary. That’s why I wrote about them. In almost 25 years of playing craps with great dice controllers, I am going to witness (and even perform) extraordinary things. Alan Mendelson has said --- correctly --- that if you play enough craps with random rollers you will see many amazing things too. I think the difference is this --- I’ll see more amazing things per controlled shooter than I will per random shooter. Controlled shooters will have more big hands and they will, when all is said and done, beat the casinos.

I have also written about some of the extraordinarily negative things that have happened to me. Some of my critics like to say I only write about the good stuff. Not so. I remember writing about one such awful situation on this web site and then some critics said this awful series of losses could not have happened. I never shy away from telling the truth about the extraordinarily good and the extraordinarily bad things I have experienced.

If you take all of my books about craps (and blackjack); all of my articles; and then go through all the “tall tales” (good and bad) I think you will see that the over-over-overwhelming majority of my advantage-play time is not spent at tables where the Captain rolls a 147 or I roll so many eights or Jerry “Stickman” rolls a boatload of sixes or any such things. My time at the tables is a flat-out grind. This is true of craps and it is true of blackjack too. Spectacular events are certainly noteworthy but most of the my time is a slog.

(I am about to make a point so don’t jump on me to say I am not humble. Actually I am not humble…never mind.) I happen to be an excellent on-axis shooter, not because I believe I am but because I have been tested by SmartCraps. (That doesn’t mean I can call out my numbers.) I do not actually need long rolls to win money. I often only bet on one number (with the Pass Line if the Pass Line is not that number). So you might be at a table with me and I have a roll of 10 and you have lost money and I am smiling. If you have ever met anyone who has played with me for any length of time you can ask them why I win money on short rolls.

Certainly, I have had long rolls but in relationship to the amount of time I have played, these rolls, while extraordinary, would not have sustained me for my craps playing career.

I understand there are many folks who do not believe controlling (influencing) the dice is possible. That’s fine. I even know people who think card counting is a myth. (Yes, I also think they belong to the Flat Earth Society.)

Let’s talk about me now --- which is, as you can imagine, one of my favorite topics.

As a writer I enjoy writing about the extraordinary things I have witnessed. Let me put it this way:

I am now going to write a true tale of a ship that was thought to be unsinkable. The creator of that ship said, “Even God couldn’t sink her.” It was a monstrously large ship, four masts, and on its maiden voyage some of the movers and shakers of the Earth were onboard her. That voyage was an event; it was written about in newspapers across Europe and America.

Then the unsinkable ship, on her maiden voyage, hits an iceberg and sinks to the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean. The ship that “even God couldn’t sink” is destroyed by ice and engulfed by the waves.

Wow! What a story.

But how could it possibly be true? Look at the hundreds of thousands of ships plying the seas and none of them went down on their maiden voyages. This story must be a fabrication; it can’t be real. The person telling this story just wants to sell books. How preposterous.

How’s this one?

Why would an advantage player write books if he were making money playing the games? Obviously, he can’t be making money. [I do write about far more than just gambling. If I may, visit my web site www.frankscoblete.com to see…I hope this was okay to mention.]

My answer: Why does Donald Trump teach classes in real estate at the Learning Annex? Why did Steven Spielberg teach directing classes? Why do famous actors (their names are legion) teach acting classes? Why do published writers who are making a good living teach others how to write? Some of the biggest names in writing teach college courses in writing even though they don’t need the money.

Writers enjoy writing. I am a writer. Teachers enjoy teaching. I am a teacher. And some of us enjoy playing casino games with an advantage. I enjoy all of these things.
Bohemian
Bohemian
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June 14th, 2013 at 10:07:27 AM permalink
Thank you Frank for a touch of honesty. The above post proves you are way more of a real MAN than the likes of the other fiction writers like car salesman Heavy and the Mad Professor from Canada will ever be !!

It still does not change the fact that you have blanketed the Casino World with the words "Dice Control", etc. for over a decade when in fact there is not such a thing as you have admitted above except as a pure deceptive marketing ploy. This could easily be considered criminal not only to your customers but to all Dice influencers that suffer the wrath of your deception.

Let's revisit some of that fiction.

Quote: FrankScoblete

and 26 eights in 45 rolls? Or Jerry “Stickman’s” 23 sixes in 28 rolls?
Jerry "Stickman" was shooting. Did not use the 5-Count on him. Had my six at table limit or close to it. I tend to go with my biggest bet right from the start on Stickman but I did begin moving it up as the roll continued.



If you started at a $12 Six and progressed as your Website advises with a "Press and Pull" strategy ( http://www.goldentouchcraps.com/Stickman/stick0004.shtml ), then you would have reached the table max ($6,000) on roll 20. I know you usually start with a minimum bet of $30. on the Six and Eight, so you should have been pressed to table limit quicker as I can get to table limits in 15 hits from $30. Now that leaves you 8 extra hits to think about what to do with your bets.

Therein lies the problem with this fictional tale. Nobody forgets the smallest minor detail of every time they pressed to table limits. NEVER, if you are a red or green chip player!!!!!!! Yet you cannot recall if you hit table limits, but you recall how many 6s were thrown?! What is more important to you, $ or tosses?!

I will still bet on GTC trained students as they are some of the best dice tossers in the world, however your writings are still more fiction than fact.
Nareed
Nareed
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June 14th, 2013 at 10:36:23 AM permalink
The truth is AP methods can be proven experimentally. I'm done listening to arguments about dice influencing and control. I await empiric proof.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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June 14th, 2013 at 11:24:02 AM permalink
Frank: I don't think blackjack card counters can claim any influence over the result of the hands that are dealt. They only take advantage of the odds of cards coming up.

I don't think "advantage video poker players" can claim any influence over the result of the cards that are dealt on the draw after selecting cards to hold. They only take advantage of the odds of cards that remain in the simulated electronic deck.

Both blackjack players and video poker players are always at the mercy of something that is out of their control: the shuffle of a real deck by a dealer, or the shuffle of an electronic deck by an RNG.

In craps, only the shooter of the dice controls the action -- all of the action. Either you can "control" or you "can't control."

In craps, the table does not move or change its surface or have pins that pop up to influence the roll of the dice -- not yet anyway. But electronic "obstacle course" tables that can alter the throw and direction of the dice after they are thrown might be coming. (Any manufacturers out there: I'll take credit, thank you.)

The point is dice controllers have a bigger burden of proof than video poker or blackjack advantage players.
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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June 14th, 2013 at 11:28:01 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

In craps, the table does not move or change its surface or have pins that pop up to influence the roll of the dice -- not yet anyway. But electronic "obstacle course" tables that can alter the throw and direction of the dice after they are thrown might be coming. (Any manufacturers out there: I'll take credit, thank you.)


Too late:
http://www.diceworks.net/Products.html

You never saw a movie with a casino scene featuring a magnetic craps table? I'm sure I've seen several...
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
MrV
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June 14th, 2013 at 1:01:14 PM permalink
Quote: FrankScoblete

"...the “Arm,” the best dice controller I ever saw. She was the most consistent and the most devastating shooter. Yet, as the years wore on and her arthritis kicked in, her shooting deteriorated and she quit playing. The “Arm” of 20 years before and the “Arm” on the day of her retirement from craps were two different shooters.



She rolled for the crew from 1980 until 2001.

She threw in a very un-GTC type manner, a unique style you guys could never duplicate.

Presumably she never set the dice?

If she did: what set(s) did she use, and how did she know enough to do this Back in the Day?

Or was she just ... lucky?
"What, me worry?"
FrankScoblete
FrankScoblete
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June 14th, 2013 at 1:41:38 PM permalink
Bohemian, try starting at $300 as a place bet. How many presses to get to $2,000? To be paid properly, the top bet can't be $2,000, it can only be near there. (I just reread your post. A $5 minimum table and a $2,000 maximum bet, not a $6,000 maximum bet.) I've never been deceptive about any of this. I worried about saying my bet was flat-out $2,000 because I figured someone would say, "Only a fool would bet $2,000 because you don't get the extra payout unless they let you go to..." I bet near $2,000.

Alan, I agree about the card counting. I thought that is what I wrote? As for dice control no burden of proof needed to convince you. A player takes the tests I mentioned and passes them. He then goes to the casinos and wins money over time --- just as I said in my post. It is either true or it isn't. You can find that out for yourself with no problem.

Okay, let's take a skeptical view. Let us say a person takes a class and it is all a big, fat lie perpetrated by me, the 22 instructors in GTC, and all the other dice control advocates (since I have never seen the ones Bohemian mentions I have no idea if they can control the dice or not). Yes, this poor deluded guy has spent $1,995 on this big, fat lie. Still, if this person learns the 5-Count and bets as the class instructors tell him to bet, he will save a lot of money over time --- far more than the $1,995 he spent on this big, fat lie. So even if it is a lie (which it isn't) it is good (don't anyone dare take this out of context and excerpt it). Now, if dice control (dice influencing) is real (which it is) then he is off to the races. Obviously, I know (as oppose to believe) it is not a big fat lie since I have been doing this for a long, long time.

(I put in all those parentheses because I fear some of the harsher critics might take a sentence out of that paragraph to make it read as if I am saying it is a big fat lie [which it isn't] )

Just let me back up. With 22 GTC instructors, there are a few who are so rich they own jets; some fleets of planes (yes, yes, this is all true). Some own rather large businesses. Some are professionals. Some of them are college professors. None of them needs to teach GTC methods. But they know it works because they have been doing it. Why would such astute individuals be so fooled as to think they are doing something which they are not doing? Why do all this teaching if it weren't real knowledge and skill being imparted? Are they so dumb that all their successes in life just go down the drain when it comes to dice control? I rather doubt that could be the case.

Back to Alan: proving it is best done case by case. Alan and anyone else, I think you should rewatch the DVD of my shots. Is it possible you will see what is really there? Just re-read my original post and check out the "V" spread.

Mr. V., she did set the dice but I never saw the complete set or even asked about it. Keep in mind I was in awe of these people. It does seem strange, I know, but what can I do. That's how it was. Her hand covered the dice almost completely. I did catch small glimpses but I am not sure what the darn set was. Her throw was completely different than the throws GTC or I use. Completely, totally different. Was she lucky? Twenty some years of phenomenal luck? That's harder to believe than dice control if you ask me --- wait, you did ask me. By the way, back in the day was not "back in the day" back in the day.

I do realize that this conversation will go as all of the previous ones seem to go. So unless someone comes up with something other than harshness, innuendo (actually out-uendo) or a statement of disbelief or even a statement of belief, I figure the discussion for me should turn to something else. You have seen a DVD of my throws. You read my explanations. Some of you have read my books. You know what I've said about the skill and betting involved. Whether you believe, whether you are skeptical, whether you are actually a skilled shooter, whether you decide to drop out of these discussions because of the typical path they take, well, that is that as far as I can see.

Oops, let me add one more thing. I realize that some critics do go over my works and articles and posts looking for discrepancies. Indeed, some people have read my books more than I have! If you can find something that doesn't fit exactly with something I might have written in the past, you figure you can hang me (out to dry) with it. That was done with the Captain's Supersystem, something I changed my mind about around the year 1999 give or take. I think he made a mistake with that idea. Actually I know he made a mistake with that idea. Still, anyone can take a quote from my very first book published over 22 years ago and nail me with it.
Bohemian
Bohemian
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June 14th, 2013 at 5:56:54 PM permalink
Quote: FrankScoblete

Bohemian, try starting at $300 as a place bet. How many presses to get to $2,000? To be paid properly, the top bet can't be $2,000, it can only be near there. (I just reread your post. A $5 minimum table and a $2,000 maximum bet, not a $6,000 maximum bet.) I've never been deceptive about any of this. I bet near $2,000.


OMG, what did you do after you got to I guess $1,800?

Was this on the Crapless table?
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