$500 chip on the 12

I recently came home from a trip to Atlantic City

I was playing at one of the casinos on the boardwalk that offers the firebet. My toss was looking good, dice nice and tight together, turning together on axis.

Between points I just randomly tossed the dice and up came the 12. I wasn't to happy about that because just lost my $10 dollar pass line bet. I looked down to other side of the table noticed some guy had placed had a $500 chip on the 12.

Holy mackeral! That guy just made $15,000 on that one roll. Now, I used to teach with GTC a few years back and i remember my old friend Frank Scoblete telling everyone to stay away from those "crazy crapper" bets...so of course I never bet them, and only bet the ones with the lowest house edge.

This was just amazing to me that someone would risk $500 on such a long shot. Five hundred dollars on one bet? That's half of my buy in for the whole session!
He tossed me 2 black chips as a thank you and asked me if i can do it again.

I said I don't know, but I'll try. I'm thinking maybe he'll give me an even bigger tip. What do I have to lose?

This time i set the dice for horn numbers and hit the 12 again! When I looked down the table I noticed that he put the $500 bet on aces instead of the 12...I'm thinking to myself, why did he change the bet to aces and not leave it on 12....I'm sure he was thinking the same thing

Anyway, I had a 40 hand roll. hit 4 different numbers on the firebet, walked away a big winner and witnessed a real "Crazy Crapper" bettor.

Howard rock n roller

he could have at least had the intelligence to go play the roulette wheel and get a better payout.

Quote: Howardrocknroll

Between points I just randomly tossed the dice and up came the 12. I wasn't to happy about that because just lost my $10 dollar pass line bet. I looked down to other side of the table noticed some guy had placed had a $500 chip on the 12.

Holy mackeral! That guy just made $15,000 on that one roll. Now, I used to teach with GTC a few years back and i remember my old friend Frank Scoblete telling everyone to stay away from those "crazy crapper" bets...so of course I never bet them, and only bet the ones with the lowest house edge.

This was just amazing to me that someone would risk $500 on such a long shot. Five hundred dollars on one bet? That's half of my buy in for the whole session!
He tossed me 2 black chips as a thank you and asked me if i can do it again.

Howard there are no bad bets on a craps table if you are hitting them, I've even told you that before in our many conversations when your in Vegas. The math of the game does not matter, when you are playing craps! Lets hear it from all the math guys,... I know that this should stir up a hornets nest of activity from all the math guys, to bad they can't use some of their math skills to debunk some of the BS, when someone writes that they rolled 23,..6's in a 28 roll, or they saw 18 Yo's in a row!

Anyway your never at the tables long enough for the math of the game to work its self out, yes we know that in 10,000 rolls of the dice it will even it's self out, most of the time it will be very close to what it should be! Your problem is when you are playing craps that you will never be there that long, you don't have the bankroll.

A good example of what the math guys want everybody to believe could been seen on the WoVCon thread, when I asked the question about playing craps with full odds, even though it didn't turn out in there favor!

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/off-topic/13238-wovcon-i-date-place-and-time/54/

Quote: superrick

How many showed up at CR to play craps?

If you did show up did anybody play with full odds and if so did you're win by betting the pass-line with full odds?

If you follow what the guys said that were playing there, you will see that none of them lasted that long before they lost, I think that Ahigh might have been the only winner, from what AcesAndEights said

Quote: AcesAndEights

I don't believe anyone won money. Aaron was doing all kinds of crazy stuff, put bets maybe (or maybe they were just regular come bets with odds), I dunno but he was turning numbers on and off for the come-out roll willy-nilly. With all of that madness he may have had a winning session

The worst bet on the table can turnout to be the best bets you can make if someone is rolling them. I've seen it many time where the guy that is making what everybody would call stupid bets is winning and the guys that are betting the 6's and 8's are losing!

The Little Joe class is the only school that I know of that teaches betting on what others would call stupid bets, like the craps numbers and horn bets. When playing craps you need to have an very open mind as to what is happening on the table, if you see a trend and you bet it the right way, you will come out a winner.

Craps is a game that you're not suppose to win at, the casinos wouldn't have it if we were all winners! They freak out when you are winning, because they know you should be losing.

So maybe the guy that you saw betting the 12 was following a trend that he notice, or he just got lucky. Sometimes you have to take a chance to become a winner! Would I tell everybody to go out and bet the 12,..No! But on the other hand if someone was rolling 12's like there was no tomorrow, you would be a damn fool not to bet on the 12!

The only time the math of the game is just about 100% right is after 10,000 rolls of the dice or more,.. are you still going to be at the table for that many rolls? You are always playing craps in the short run, not the long run. The math guys can argue that point until they are blue in the face. You are only on a craps table as long as your bankroll last. Most of the time that is a very short time, even betting the way that they say is the right way of betting the game!!!

I have a story too. Im at the table at Caesars -- Im not the shooter -- and the shooter is having a good roll. And along comes some good looking, well dressed guy with his attractive girlfriend. He walks up to the table, looks at all the chips on the layout, and throws down a thousand dollar chip and calls out "high low" and the stick man says "bet."

Next throw was 12. he takes his payout and leaves.

Stuff like that happens.

And then there was the time I am at a table and some Euro-trash walks up and three of the guys each throw down a wad of 100s on the field... three wads. And the shooter throws a six. The dealers pick up the cash and count it out for the camera -- about 7-thousand in all. Down the chute it goes.

So the three of them reach into their pockets again -- each throws down another wad on the field. Roll is an 8. They leave. About five thousand was counted out by the dealers.

Quote: superrick

You are always playing craps in the short run, not the long run. The math guys can argue that point until they are blue in the face.

Superrick please come over to my forum -- Rob Singer will love you!

But you are right... none of us is ever there for the long term, and expected value is only to be expected and your results may differ.

The math very much says situations like this should occur, just like it says someone will win the lottery. That doesn't make either a good bet, win or lose.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Stuff like that happens.

Play enough and you get to see everything.

The other evening at the 4Queens this guy was playing green chips on the field, and nothing else. If he hit 12 or 2, he'd press the bet one unit. During my roll he made out rather well. Then over the next few shooters he lost all his gains and a little bit more.

What's funny was my reaction to him. At once I began to think "I hope he loses his bankroll." Well, that's mean and uncalled for. Not that my wishes will affect his outcome. The ridiculous thing is to react emotionally to a bet by a stranger. What do I care? And what business is it of mine? More important, I've no idea why he's playing that way. maybe he enjoys the thrill and a few hundreds in green over half an hour is something he can easily afford. maybe he's a newbie and he doesn't know any better (when I think to my first trip to Vegas, I flush about how badly I played, and I stuck mostly to VP then).

So, play good bets, play bad bets, insist bad bets are good and vice versa, it's all the same to me. your bets don't affect mine, nor take away from my enjoyment.

I love when field bettors win... on the 4, 9, 10.

Quote: Nareed

What's funny was my reaction to him. At once I began to think "I hope he loses his bankroll." Well, that's mean and uncalled for.

I think my take on that is like most people's: I want everybody to win, as long as it doesn't come at my expense.

Having said that, craps is one of those games that makes me cagey, since it's your throw that's making people win or lose. If I end up costing somebody a particularly large amount, relative to standard action there, I tend to move out fast to avoid any potential encounters. (One particularly memorable case, I ended up going 7-7-7-7-5-7 against somebody who was Martingaling the 6/8 for a base 150$ at Rincon. Cost him upwards of 9k while the rest of the table, combined, pulled maybe 300$.)

Similar experience, but even bigger payout. I was at Resorts in AC last night and they have this "bonus" in which if the shooter hits all the numbers (2-12, no defined sequence) before throwing a 7, the house pays 175:1. It's a no brainer this is likely a sucker bet, but last night a guy actually hit it and won $1750 on his $10 bet. The "low numbers" and "high numbers" also paid 34:1, so it's nice when someone hits them all. What are the odds of that actually hitting? I'm guessing there's likely a 10-15% house edge.

Quote: superrick

If you follow what the guys said that were playing there, you will see that none of them lasted that long before they lost, I think that Ahigh might have been the only winner, from what AcesAndEights said

Quote: AcesAndEights

I don't believe anyone won money. Aaron was doing all kinds of crazy stuff, put bets maybe (or maybe they were just regular come bets with odds), I dunno but he was turning numbers on and off for the come-out roll willy-nilly. With all of that madness he may have had a winning session

I don't know what your point is in pointing out one session. One session is meaningless; you could play the worst bets on the table, parlaying your horn bets until the cows come home and variance could make you a winner. S*** happens. Yeah none of us will play a million craps sessions in our lifetime, that doesn't change the the various advantages that the house holds on each bet. Play the bets with the highest edges and you will be more likely to lose money and less likely to win money. Simple as that.

Also paisiello won a few bucks and no one knows how Ahigh ended up as MrV was standing next to him and left early.

Nareed was flirting with the dark side at one point so she may have squeezed out a profit on a few of those cold rolls.

Quote: toolboxnj

Similar experience, but even bigger payout. I was at Resorts in AC last night and they have this "bonus" in which if the shooter hits all the numbers (2-12, no defined sequence) before throwing a 7, the house pays 175:1. It's a no brainer this is likely a sucker bet, but last night a guy actually hit it and won $1750 on his $10 bet. The "low numbers" and "high numbers" also paid 34:1, so it's nice when someone hits them all. What are the odds of that actually hitting? I'm guessing there's likely a 10-15% house edge.

Small/Tall/All bet, and the HE is 7.7% and 7.9%, which means it has a lower house edge than any of the hardway bets

I saw the all tall small hit twice by the same guy with $5 on each. One man laid a $25 chip on each of the all small tall bets and the tall hit. It was one number away from hitting the all when the shooter sevened out. This is a bet I'm probably going to good a dollar or two at my next trip. It's still a "sucker" bet but it hits just enough to be attractive.

Quote: Mikey75

I saw the all tall small hit twice by the same guy with $5 on each. One man laid a $25 chip on each of the all small tall bets and the tall hit. It was one number away from hitting the all when the shooter sevened out. This is a bet I'm probably going to good a dollar or two at my next trip. It's still a "sucker" bet but it hits just enough to be attractive.

I can't resist bets like these because these "exotic" bets are the only real "jackpot bets" available in craps. With most craps bets you have to bet big in order to win big. But bets like the all, tall, small, and fire I think are the craps table equivalents of hitting a royal flush in video poker.

That's is true. I like the similarities that you use there. I sure wish I had been up on the ones that hit the last time I was there. I mentioned in another post I placed a dollar on the twelve when one shooter was really hitting the 12's and hit it for a $30 win. Same shooter was also hitting a lot of field numbers and he hit a 12 again when I had 10 on the field for another $30 payout. Biggest payouts I've ever had in craps.

I've been thinking on something and I thought I would bring it up here. Has anyone every tried a martingale style betting system on a high odds bet like betting the 12 in craps? With it paying 30-1 you could bet a unit 29 times before you would have to raise your bet to turn a profit. I've been playing around with the progression. You could play a long time on a bet like the twelve with that kind of progression before losing any serious money. Of course the longer it goes without hitting the less units you would recoup. I know all betting systems ultimately fail but this could be something that would be fun to play around with.

Mikey I was at a table once when a high roller had $25 on the 12 for 30 rolls in a row... never hit it once. Then the dice came to me and on my come out I rolled 12 three times in a row... but the high roller had given up on his 30th attempt.

I think you'd be better off putting $1 on the fire bet.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Then the dice came to me and on my come out I rolled 12 three times in a row... but the high roller had given up on his 30th attempt.

What's the "math" on rolling three 12's in a row?

(1/36)^3 = 0.000021433470507544576 = 1/0.000021433470507544576 = 1 in 46656

Perfectly reasonable.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Mikey I was at a table once when a high roller had $25 on the 12 for 30 rolls in a row... never hit it once. Then the dice came to me and on my come out I rolled 12 three times in a row... but the high roller had given up on his 30th attempt.

I think you'd be better off putting $1 on the fire bet.

Lol your probably right Alan!! I've never seen or heard of anyone trying to use a progression on these types of bets. I suppose the house edge would make it not worth it. I have made several dollars on the wizards online baccarat game using a progression and only betting ties. However a large bankroll is still required to do such a progression. However one wouldn't have to worry to much about hitting table limits with a progression on such a high payout bet.

Quote: Mission146

(1/36)^3 = 0.000021433470507544576 = 1/0.000021433470507544576 = 1 in 46656

Perfectly reasonable.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Then the dice came to me and on my come out I rolled 12 three times in a row... .

Question was: What are the chances of rolling three 12's in a row?

One chance in 46,656 attempts mathematically speaking, is the kind reply and math. The same math would apply to a hardway being thrown in a row. I don't recall every seeing it myself but will say I've seen three hardways on the same number made(before an easy and/or a seven) at some point in my career, just not in a row. Interesting it's reasonable and believable to you and others.

I swear Caesars has the DUMBEST big-money players of any casino in the Universe. (AlanM obviously excepted). I like to walk around the pit just to find the most insane, batshit-dumb players and have not been disappointed every time I go there. I saw probably the worst blackjack player of all time if skill times bet size were correlated. Just unbelievable plays like doubling on a BJ, splitting at the WORST times (7s v A?) -- just a trainwreck.

My other favorite Caesars player was a craps player who only made hop bets and on random combinations of numbers, but always including the 9s. And always for $50-$200. He just kept throwing down bills and getting angrier and angrier until he hit (which only made him slightly less angry).

The quarter players at Joker's Wild have more gambling knowledge than these folks.

Quote: RaleighCraps

Small/Tall/All bet, and the HE is 7.7% and 7.9%, which means it has a lower house edge than any of the hardway bets

Cool, I thought it would have been much higher than that.

thanks for excepting me, teddys... and I am not a big money player.

But the craziest big money player I saw was a guy who brought a hundred thousand cash to the table and plays a three way 7 ONLY on the come out roll. If he missed the comeout 7 on the next come out 7 he doubles his three way bet.

He starts with $25 on each of the three sevens.

I saw him go bust doing this. There wasn't a come out, winner 7 the entire time we played.

Noktang will call me a liar.

Well we have all seen the hits on the crapper bets. and there is no doubt they are fun for the guys that bet
them and do hit them now and then.

There is one guy on our casino trips that plays like that, he can have $600 on 6 & 8 plus come bets, $200
in the field, $100 or more on all the hardways and and table max on high low yo. HIs average trip loss is about
$20,000. Now he has had some great wins, he has been the big shot a number of nights,
that is what he lives for. Hitting high/low/yo three times in a
row is more important to him that the $20,000 loss.

To him, the math does not matter, the casino could say ok we no longer allow bets on 6 & 8 or a pass line
bet with odds and he still would play the game.

Dicesetter