Biased Dice: The science begins

I was thinking about this:

Quote: tupp

No doubt that dice are sometimes changed out more often than that, especially if pit management notices damage/wear during a shift.

I can't remember EVER seeing a die or dice removed from play because of damage or wear. The only time I remember dice being changed out was during a normal, planned change. There was one time when I played at a table at Caesars where there were only four dice because one die was thrown off the table and was "lost" in the crowded casino.

Quote: Alan M

I can't remember EVER seeing a die or dice removed from play because of damage or wear. The only time I remember dice being changed out was during a normal, planned change. There was one time when I played at a table at Caesars where there were only four dice because one die was thrown off the table and was "lost" in the crowded casino.

You need to get to Vegas more often, then you might even see them change out the dice because someone is on a long roll, sometimes sneaking the dice into the game! I've seen them change out the dice because someone was throwing the dice into the mirrors, after they took the dice off the shooter and banned him from shooting while he was still playing.

But what has to be the funniest thing you may ever see, is when a superstitious suit takes one die out of the game and puts it in what I call time out, because there was just a long roll with that die, then walks off so it can't be put back in.

hey superrick, what kind of rinky dink joints do you play in? LOL

Quote: Alan M

hey superrick, what kind of rinky dink joints do you play in? LOL

Alan I play in all the casinos here in Vegas and around the south part of NV. What you have to understand is, sometimes it’s not the casino that wants these things done. It’s the stupid suit that is superstitious and thinks that the money is his or hers that they are losing. As a matter of fact one of the casinos that everybody thinks as a casino that you would never want to play at, because of the location and the players that you will see in there, happens to be one of the best casino you will ever play in. They run it like the good old days in Vegas.

They don’t care if you are winning, they want you to have a good time and come back again. They know that if you won and you come back they will get their money back, which they lost to you! Now of course, I use good common sense when playing there and will not try to kill them, I leave when I’m winning and don’t go for the jugular vein.

You never know what kind of a nut case is on the other side of the table, some dealers and suits hate the players and take joy in seeing them lose their money. There are some suits that think of themselves as coolers and will try anything to get someone to seven out.

Fortunately there aren’t too many of these guys and most dealers take pride in what they are doing. But as corporate puts the squeeze to their employees, you will see more of this type of action by the suits and dealers here in Vegas.

There are a different set of rules for the locals that plays craps all the time then the guys that only come to Vegas a few times a year. Now that’s if you hit the same casinos to often, you have to move your play around and forget about comps and giving the casinos a player’s card. One of the things I tell any DI that is moving here is to never get a players card at any of the casinos you are going to play at, if you can’t buy something with the money you took off the tables you shouldn’t be playing craps.

Now there are casinos that know me and I don’t have to give a players card too and they will put me in their computer because I didn’t know any better when I first started playing craps and had player’s cards. So yes there are times that I will use a comp at one of those casinos. Unlike the fiction you will read on some of the DI boards, real DI’s do not take the casinos for hundreds of thousands of dollars a year without getting banned from the casinos. If they are winning to much the casinos will give them all kinds of heat, or will just banned them.

That just doesn’t happen, if you win to much they don’t want your play, casinos are in business to make money, they are not your personal ATM’s!

Casinos ban dice setters for winning?

Nothing more, just winning?

Really?!

There has to be more to the story, like "Sir, I told you twice that both dice have to hit the back wall."

But barredjust for "winning?"

You know what they say... there's always two sides to every dice controller story. What the dice controller says and the truth... or something like that. :)

ZCore13

Quote: Superrick

One of the things I tell any DI that is moving here is to never get a players card at any of the casinos you are going to play at, if you can’t buy something with the money you took off the tables you shouldn’t be playing craps.

Superrick,

Are you a DI or DC? If so, then why should we believe you but not Frank S.?

Quote: Keyser

Superrick,

Are you a DI or DC? If so, then why should we believe you but not Frank S.?

I was going to say something similar.

Superrick, if you are so good at craps, you should embrace Frank -- and not criticize him. If we can't believe Frank and his crew, why should we believe that you can do what you claim? Are you the ONLY true dice influencer or controller in the world, and the rest are just "pretenders to the throne"?

I know how superrick feels... If you are shooting well everytime you hit these spots... You will catch a lot if heat. And the heat comes specifically because of the "DI" phenomenon.. I can't tell you how many times I hear these words when I get the dice... "hey that's the guy who had the big rolls these past few weeks. He shoots like those DI videos". Minimums get raised, extra suits touch the floor all because some guy wrote some stuff a few years ago..

The Wolf713

Superrick will argue in one post that DI/DC is impossible, and then contradict himself in the next post by implying that it is.
I don't know how he feels, but I can tell you that his jilted lover like obsession with Frank, while insisting DI is/isn't possible is pretty weird.

The answer is pretty simple. Scoblette has made in your face, books, TV shows, and casino classes. He is simply an embellishing con artist. Those who do have a little skill and a lot of luck do not care for his bovine feces and outright ****. He does not fool us at all coming on this board and spreading his filth. And then some on this board suck up to him. Don't get me started!

Quote: miplet

Has this website been mentioned? http://dicephysics.info/ It has some interesting articles.

miplet, I appreciate your reference to this site. It shows you have more fortitude about this subject than 95% of the other lazy readers that want everything for free. your link cites this Okanagan University College, Kelowna, British Columbia, Canada study:

Quote:

The first ever extensive experimental investigations of dice rolls have been carried out and are reported here for the first time. An automatic mechanism repeatedly rolls a die, photoraphs it, counts the number of dots and records the outcome. In this way, one dice roll can be made every 2.4 seconds. It is then easy to study the fairness or degree of bias of dice by rolling them many times. The dice freely fall at least 10 cm (4 inches) and bounce on a level plexiglas surface. We found that high quality dice of the kind used in Nevada gambling casinos showed no evidence of bias in a study involving 640,934 rolls. Non-cubic dice were also studied. It was found that the non-cubic dice were biased in proportion to the amount by which they deviated from perfect cubicity. Dice that have the distance between the 1 and 6 face shortened by 3% have 1's and 6's come up 6% more often than one-sixth of the time. Dice shortened by 1.5% to 13% were studied with up to 36,000 rolls each.

Now what the hell does this prove or have to do with any kind of dice simulation in a craps game? Nothing in my opinion. This Department of Physics and Astronomy failed miserably to prove anything about biased dice in a craps game. Maybe their study is good for Monopoly or other board games, but NOT Casino Craps.

First, this study was done before July, 2001. Has nothing to do with the current state of affairs in Las Vegas casinos.

2nd, you can throw a lot of these dice studies in the garbage as they do not consider the physics of a Craps Game. Especially the Weldon machine on YouTube and studies that drop the dice straight down like Keyser's device.

Simple physics (and Newton's 3rd law) suggest if an unbalanced object is thrust forward it will react differently if it is allowed to come to a natural rest, even if slightly redirected by the rubber pyramids, instead of dropping straight down only a few inches. If you take an unbalanced die and drop it straight down 4 inches you will get far different average results consistently over 640,934 rolls compared to the same unbalanced die tossed forward 10 feet.

Dropping a die straight down 4 inches (or 10 inches) will allow more randomness, whereas the unimpeded forward motion of an unbalanced object will have the effects of centrifugal force and gravity play a bigger factor.

Quote: DeMango

The answer is pretty simple. Scoblette has made in your face, books, TV shows, and casino classes. He is simply an embellishing con artist. Those who do have a little skill and a lot of luck do not care for his bovine feces and outright ****. He does not fool us at all coming on this board and spreading his filth. And then some on this board suck up to him. Don't get me started!

That's not appropriate, argue his positions on dice control, not the man himself. "He is simply an embellishing con artist," is completely unacceptable as you are referring to a Member that posts here.

Mission: When you sell something that even in his own words cannot be used by the overwhelmingly majority of his customers, then what other description would fit?? I have no problem, unlike others here, with his position on dice control. And in that vein, from other sources, including former GTC members, there are many stories told, reflecting on his character. I really am biting my tongue, so to speak. The leading dice control boards have NOT allowed him entrance, that alone should tell you something.

Quote: DeMango

Mission: When you sell something that even in his own words cannot be used by the overwhelmingly majority of his customers, then what other description would fit?? I have no problem, unlike others here, with his position on dice control. And in that vein, from other sources, including former GTC members, there are many stories told, reflecting on his character. I really am biting my tongue, so to speak. The leading dice control boards have NOT allowed him entrance, that alone should tell you something.

I'm going to give my opinion of this matter in a second, and I appreciate your cordial response, but my point is that there is a difference between calling his books or GTC a, "Con," and calling him a, "Con artist." If you want to say that the GTC classes are a complete and total con, and provide supporting opinion as to why, I have exactly zero problem with that. If you want to call Mr. Scoblete a, "Con Artist," I have exactly 100% problem with that.

My Opinion

My opinion is simple:

You have Mr. Scoblete's products, which seem to include books, DVD's, and previously Golden Touch Craps classes and individual instruction(s). I believe Mr. Scoblete said that he no longer has a monetary interest in the Golden Touch Craps classes, but I could be wrong about that. Even if so, that he at least once had a financial interest in those classes goes without question.

These products have a market, otherwise they would be unsuccessful. The market includes those who pay for the books, DVD's and classes. The market believes that these products have a value that either equals or exceeds the monetary cost of the products, they must, or they would not purchase the products.

"Conning," in my estimation, is when an individual or group knowingly and willfully advertises their product(s) in such a manner that would cause the ordinary consumer to believe they have a greater value than they actually could ever have. If you'll peruse the homepage of Golden Touch Craps:

http://www.goldentouchcraps.com/

One of the first things the website states, in the top left section is, "It's not easy, and not everyone can do it."

That statement alone is enough to cause me to believe that no con is taking place with respect to Golden Touch Craps. The reason that my opinion is such is because that statement alone basically says, "This may not work for you."

However, it can be maintained that the other information/advertisements offered by this same website are sufficient to outweigh this one statement. In other words, another individual may reasonably believe that a con is taking place.

So, is this a con?

I don't think it's a con, because it openly states that, "Not everyone can do it." In other words, "This product may not have the intended results for every person who uses it." I can't speak for everyone, but for me, I would not buy the product for that reason alone. I believe that the classes cost $1,000 or more, although, I've not perused the fee schedule. With all due respect to Mr. Scoblete, I wouldn't pay $20 to attend any of these classes, nor would I buy any of these instructional books or DVD's because I feel they have no value to me.

This is especially true with the classes. Let's say that, somehow, the GTC classes were virtually guaranteed to give you a miniscule edge in Craps. Even in a scenario such as that, I would still have to look at the cost of taking the classes as, "Money lost," and then the Expected Value of my miniscule edge betting x units per decision over x decisions would have to outweigh the cost of the classes and generate an expected profit for me.

For example, if a class were exactly $1,000, and my expected advantage on the Pass Line were .05% units at a $10 wager, I would still need to make:

1000/(10 * .0005) = $200,000

So, $200,000 in total wagers, before I got back to even par, just on the classes. That would be 20,000 Pass Line Wagers, which at a rate of 48 decisions per hour, would take:

20000/48/8 = 52.0833- days of playing Craps at Eight Hours per day, just to get me back to even.

So, with all due respect to Mr. Scoblete, no thanks.

But, to answer whether or not I think it is a con: What I think is there is a product being offered, and people have to make the decision as to whether or not they believe the value of the product exceeds the price for which Mr. Scoblete is asking for the product. In my opinion, I do not. If I spend $1,000 on a Craps class, then that $1,000 is gone, but if I make $1,000 worth of bets at $10/PL bet, hell, I might just come out ahead not knowing anything about dice control.

Some may say, "But, Mission146, you don't strike me as a terribly gullible person, and that's who Mr. Scoblete is taking advantage of." I would respond by saying, "Even if we assume that as true, gullible people are gullible people...if it weren't that, it would be something else."

However, I don't think this just suckers in the gullible people, I think people who are not gullible believe DI could work and see value in these products. It just so happens, Demango, that you and I are not amongst that number. I think the Shamwow is worthless, too, but I know some people who swear by it. If you ask me, I say, "It's a goddamn washrag!"

Quote: DeMango

Scoblette ... is simply an embellishing con artist. Those who do have a little skill and a lot of luck do not care for his bovine feces and outright ****. He does not fool us at all coming on this board and spreading his filth.

Personal insult of another forum member -- three-day suspension.

Quote: Mission146

One of the first things the website states, in the top left section is, "It's not easy, and not everyone can do it." ...
Idon't think it's a con, because it openly states that, "Not everyone can do it."

You might want to ask a different question in your analysis as to whether it is a "con."

It seems to me that the definitive question and the crux of the matter is not whether "everyone can do it" but rather "can it be objectively proven that at least one individual CAN do it."

Quote: Asswhoopermcdaddy

First of all, at the end of a shift, I believe casino's swap out and retire dice. So any bias resulting from a retired pair have no baring on the new set put in action.

Precisely. The Box examines the dice during play and may retire a die early, also there are always five dice of which only two dice are actually in use and subject to getting nicked or tampered with.

Quote: Asswhoppermcdaddy

If we are really going to give this bias dice concept a chance, we probably have to equate this to loaded dice, where the distribution manifests itself in such a way that it is immediately statistically significant.

Nope! Professor Persi Diaconis did this for us. He had a high-quality set of loaded dice machined to fine tolerances ... and the only thing that eventually became obvious was that his graduate assistants were making more observational errors than the dice were making deviations from the norm. A well crafted set of loaded dice didn't make much difference, which is why the Box probably never cares much about minor nicks or scratches. Them casinos have been around for a real long time and those ancient box men ain't held onto their jobs by being dumb. They've seen all the shot takers and general cross roaders through the years and they've examined zillions of dice. And you know one thing... after a couple of decades at it, they know what they are doing! That is why, except at The Venetian, you can buy their retired dice in the casino or if you've been a fantastically successful shooter ask right then and there for the dice to be retired for you. Only The Venetian retires the dice and then grinds them into rubble. Other casinos will sell retired (and drilled) dice ... and still not worry about nicks acquired during ordinary use. Dice have an early retirement plan. ALL dice. Casinos ain't dumb! Or at least they ain't as dumb as the weird guy at the end of the table who thinks he can "sense" some bias.

Quote: FleaStiff

Casinos ain't dumb!

They aren't particularly sharp either. They are run more like your city parks and recreations department or the department of motor vehicles. Incompetence here and there, slow moving, "did you get the memo about the memo", etc.

That is a very far reach. There is more regulation, double checks and redundant procedures in a casino than most businesses. For you to claim otherwise from the outside is off base and said with no knowledge.

ZCore13

Quote: MrV

You might want to ask a different question in your analysis as to whether it is a "con."

It seems to me that the definitive question and the crux of the matter is not whether "everyone can do it" but rather "can it be objectively proven that at least one individual CAN do it."

DAMN Wish I had said that ! Well done, SIR>

Quote: MrV

You might want to ask a different question in your analysis as to whether it is a "con."

It seems to me that the definitive question and the crux of the matter is not whether "everyone can do it" but rather "can it be objectively proven that at least one individual CAN do it."

Post of the day award nominee!! Is it really slander or an insult if a large percentage or even a majority of the people believe it to be a con? Could just be public opinion...

ZCore13

Quote: Zcore

That is a very far reach. There is more regulation, double checks and redundant procedures in a casino than most businesses. For you to claim otherwise from the outside is off base and said with no knowledge.

My comment is spot on. It's based on my many years of experience as an AP player and having worked with people within in the casino as well as attorneys. Countless news stories also support my comments. For example, un-shuffled decks of cards within several different casinos, etc.

Oh, so you think mistakes shouldn't happen? Mistakes happen in any business. It's called the human factor. Playing at the casino and "working with people within the industry" gives you about as much knowledge of how the casino is run as the guy that picks up the trash every day or the guy that delivers the bottled water. Its a very limited and restricted view.

ZCore

Zscore13,

Do you know what the difference is between a job working for the city verses the casino?

Often times, the city pays better.

Look, your experiences are yours. Mine are mine. Feel free to disagree.

I do and your analogy makes no sense.

ZCore13

Quote: Zcore13

I do and your analogy makes no sense.

Keyser is mostly correct. The pit in your average casino
is people who are bored to death with their jobs and
are more concerned with their next break then they
are about their jobs. If you get to know them, they hate
the management where they work and going the extra
mile is the last ting on their minds. Just doing what they
have to do and punching out is their goal. Most pit
people are living examples of the Peter Principle. Not
all, but most.

Quote: EvenBob

Keyser is mostly correct. The pit in your average casino
is people who are bored to death with their jobs and
are more concerned with their next break then they
are about their jobs. If you get to know them, they hate
the management where they work and going the extra
mile is the last ting on their minds. Just doing what they
have to do and punching out is their goal. Most pit
people are living examples of the Peter Principle. Not
all, but most.

What Keyser said holds true here in Vegas, having worked in the different casinos around town and eating in their EDR's some of the dealers and suits open up to you when they know you do not work for the casino, and are an outside contractor. There were very few of their employees that like working for the casinos.
When you you live here and you know employees that are in your social circuits you really find out how they feel. I think it was last week that I bumped into one of the dealers I know that loves to see me on a craps table when he's not working, he told me that it was his last day, that he was not going back to work the next day he just retired, and the casino didn't know about it, he was not going back to work.

Casinos have changed just like every other place you would work now days, I hear it all the time that I was lucky to retire when I did, that it keeps getting worst as far as working conditions go. Nobody is happy any more working, it's not like when I was working , I enjoyed going to work everyday. I didn't mind getting a phone call from one of the guys that couldn't fix something and needed help at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5am. I use to tell them if they couldn't fix it to give me a call and I would talk them through it over the phone.

Yesterday I was talking to one of the guys that I worked with in Fla. Our conversation started off with me asking him where everybody was meeting for breakfast, it turned into him venting about how bad things have become working in our trade. He was just like me anybody could call anytime of the night if they couldn't fix something, he said now days when he is off work, he turns off his phone and will not take any calls!

So it's not just the casino industry, the work place is no longer like it use to be!

Quote: superrick

There were very few of their employees that like working for the casinos.
!

When a new casino opens here, you see familiar
faces from the other casinos. When you ask them
why they quit they always say because management
sucked. I know a girl in her 4th casino in 3 years
and she says that about all of them. You think the
new one will be better and they are for awhile. But
soon they get just like all of them, treating the
dealers and pit like crap.

The felt is always greener....

Quite often it indeed is. New surroundings, different hours, etc.

Quote: EvenBob

When a new casino opens here, you see familiar
faces from the other casinos. When you ask them
why they quit they always say because management
sucked. I know a girl in her 4th casino in 3 years
and she says that about all of them. You think the
new one will be better and they are for awhile. But
soon they get just like all of them, treating the
dealers and pit like crap.

I've seen where every new casino opening has it casualties, with the dealers that take a new job thinking that it's going to be better working at the new casino. To start with they always over hire, knowing that they are going to have a lot of new players trying out the new casino. When the players figure out that it's no different then the rest of the casinos around town, they move on and so does so many of the new jobs. They start laying off, and the dealers that moved find themselves out of a job and looking for a new one!

Just look at the dealers pool at places like Bellagio or Caesars, they are nothing like they use to be, where you had dealers that worked there forever and knew how to deal. The casinos got rid of those older dealers and started bringing in new dealers don't don't know how to deal, pretty sad when you have someone that is just above a break in dealer dealing to you at the higher end casinos!

Dealers jobs were at one time good jobs to have here in Vegas, they made great money, with no education, that is why Vegas has the worst school system in the USA. The children coming out of our schools were going to work for the casinos, they didn't need a higher education, we have one if not the highest drop out rate in the country.

Over the years the casinos found out that they could hire immigrants and the good old USA would give them tax breaks to hire them. They would start out in Primm, as break-in dealers, then they would move them to their other casino, up in Vegas. I was told that besides the tax break, they were also getting subsidy pay for the dealers, now I don't know how true that was , I was told that by a property manager that ran a rental property. These dealers would rent an apartment and pack as many dealers in as the could!

What is the subject of conversation between the dealers anymore when you are playing craps, its about when they are gettting off and getting an early-out, or who just got laid off fired or quit!
Like it or not casinos rob the residents around any casino town or city. They drive other businesses out of business, when they are in the smaller communities.

Hell you can always go to eat a cheap buffet at one of the casinos, and a lot of the residents do so, then the drop a few if not a hundred bucks at the machines! Then in any casino town you have the retirees that have nothing better to do then to gamble all their money away at the casinos. If they have children they can kiss, their inheritance good-by!

Most of the dealers will get out of town when they retire, they seen what happens to all the retirees that made the mistake of moving to a casino town!

Just finished reading a thread on Linkedin about how to provide friendly customer service by the dealers.
As usual, judging from the comments, management does not have a clue.

You can substitute just about any job for "Casino" or "Dealer" and get the exact same stories. Lower lever employees always think Management doesn't know what they are doing and things are better elsewhere.

ZCore13

Quote: Zcore13

You can substitute just about any job for "Casino" or "Dealer" and get the exact same stories. Lower lever employees always think Management doesn't know what they are doing and things are better elsewhere.

ZCore13

Usually because management does not know what they are doing. The days of having a boss who actually did you job in the past are long gone. And appraisals are a joke. Supposed to be an annual review ! Anybody ever got one that had examples past the prior 2 months ? Of course not !