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boymimbo
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May 13th, 2013 at 8:08:32 PM permalink
Insults are a hurling out here. Let's take a step back.

First, how are experiments done? For example, if you do a poll of 10,000 people and ask them to pick heads or tails and you get a result of 6,000 vs 4,000 you gotta ask how you got those numbers?

A good magic trick is to ask "Write down a number between 1 to 4?" Nine times out of ten your answer will be 3.

For example, if you are looking at cancer research and you see a bias somewhere, you start looking for the causes of that bias? Why does prostrate cancer occur more in that community? Is it because of race, age, or some other bias? Is it chemical? Diet? Fitness? What are the causes?

For dice, there is nothing wrong with taking a large sample of dice and looking for a trend. That's how you start the research -- with collection of data, but the more data points you collect the better.

ME is right in that when you combine results you dilute them. If you can add the indicators as of the casino and manufacturer of the dice, you might be able to individualize results across a dice manufacturer or a casino. It will be impossible to measure the bias of a particular die because there is five in play and two at one time.

The only bias you will detect is a general bias towards a number if all dice from all manufacturers are biased the same way.

But you never know.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
AlanMendelson
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May 13th, 2013 at 8:25:03 PM permalink
There is nothing wrong with researching dice bias, but recording rolls in a casino is not the most efficient way. The most efficient way is to look at the manufacturing process and see if it has safeguards to be sure the final product is equally balanced.

There are so many flaws and potential pitfalls in counting used dice on a casino table with individual shooters throwing them every which way, and no control over the brands, or the level of wear, or how the dice are thrown that this all becomes a ridiculous "experiment."

What the heck do you expect it to show? And after you get the results how many different ways will you have to be able to discount the findings?

This idea of counting "faces" is simplistic but has zero controls. Again let me just list a few of the variables/controls:

1. brand of dice
2. level of wear
3. how they were thrown
4. impurities on the dice surface including stickiness, moisture (since we are talking about tiny differences don't excluse these)
5. weight of the dice (they can vary among manufacturers)
6. size of the dice (they can vary among manufacturers)
7. manufacturing process
8. table conditions
9. accurate reporting of the rolls
10. sample size

Those are ten challenges that can be presented to any data you might come up with. If you want a scientific examination of the dias for bias then do it under scientific (laboratory) conditions where all of these variables are controlled.
Ahigh
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May 13th, 2013 at 9:09:20 PM permalink
I got hassled at Gold Coast for counting faces tonight. As a result, I didn't get very far. But I still have the totals on the counter from the point that I stopped.

Twelves were coming like crazy (4 12's in 40 rolls), and after a few throws, they changed the dice (at 7:08pm) I think for shift change. The 12's were coming from TK dice, and the shift change had them bringing in Midwest dice.

They were not as polite about me having the counter there. The pit boss asked for my card, then came around to talk to me and said "we would like for you to make a bet."

I had $100 on the rail at the time and after being asked, I bet $5 on the pass and $5 on the don't.

He wasn't happy about that. He shook his head and said, "we want you to make a bet." I said "I bet the 12 wouldn't roll on the comeout and I won."

He said, "no we want you to make a real bet."

So then I said, "I make bets 39 out of 40 times I come here." I then waited and he started glaring at me.

After about 3 more minutes of counting he started to say something and I threw $4,000 on the felt.

I made no more bets and just waited for him to ask me to leave. He didn't say anything else.

I ended up stop counting after helping a new player. They weren't happy about me helping him either and I advised him on smart bets to take until he got 90% of his losses back. The dealers were (of course) hard selling him on stupid bets and he was shocked to lose them all at once on the seven since he had no experience at all.
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Beethoven9th
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May 13th, 2013 at 9:17:58 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

I got hassled at Gold Coast for counting faces tonight.

Fighting BS one post at a time!
Ahigh
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May 13th, 2013 at 9:30:35 PM permalink
Quote: Beethoven9th

Ahigh, is Gold Coast your new craps 'home'?



LOL. No I don't have a new craps "home." There is nothing special about Gold Coast to me.

I don't expect to have any place I go to more frequently than any other place any more.

I've been trying to spread my play out as evenly as possible lately.
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EvenBob
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May 13th, 2013 at 9:45:52 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh



He said, "no we want you to make a real bet."

So then I said, "I make bets 39 out of 40 times I come here." I then waited and he started glaring at me.

.



You show em who's the real boss, Ahigh.
Stand up to them, they have no control
over you.

Oh, wait. They have total control over you.

Never mind...
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Ahigh
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May 13th, 2013 at 9:52:26 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

They have total control over you.



Whatever. I made it to $4,000 and I was done. I told him I would leave if he wanted me to. He didn't tell me to leave. I only made the one bet against the 12 and that was it.

Whatever...
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EvenBob
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May 13th, 2013 at 9:59:36 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh



Whatever...



Yup, thats what they think of your chances of longevity
there. Whatever..

I've always found it best not to screw
with the people who can screw you back. But I'm sure
you know best.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Ahigh
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May 13th, 2013 at 10:06:22 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

I've always found it best not to screw
with the people who can screw you back. But I'm sure
you know best.



Whatever, dude. Show me don't tell me: IE stop screwing with me ye who likes to hide.
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AlanMendelson
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May 13th, 2013 at 10:32:01 PM permalink
There was probably a way you could have obtained the data without causing a problem. Was this the same casino you had trouble before or was it another casino?
Beardgoat
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May 13th, 2013 at 10:44:46 PM permalink
That was silverton
Beethoven9th
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May 13th, 2013 at 10:48:51 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

I've been trying to spread my play out as evenly as possible lately.

Fighting BS one post at a time!
tupp
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May 13th, 2013 at 10:51:10 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Well, since you accept both of those notions then why bother counting?


What? Where did I say that I accepted either of those notions?

Are we jumping to conclusions again?

By the way, there were four notions, not two.


Quote: AlanMendelson

The first notion says it doesnt make a single difference. The second notion is that the very small number of more severely biased dice will be unintentionally used. So the bottom lines appears to be its not a big problem and nothing you can do about it anyway. Is this going to be an exercise in futility?


There were a couple of other notions that you missed (as usual), and I just thought of another one.

If you think that the effort is futile, fine. Your protest is officially acknowledged. Now, perhaps we can move on.


Quote: AlanMendelson

By the way, did Ahigh try to get casinos to buy his spinner/balance-checker ?? What happened??


I have no clue as to what you are talking about.

Sounds like you are jumping to another conclusion.
tupp
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May 13th, 2013 at 10:55:15 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Ahigh must be busy doing other stuff because he hasn't responded to my questions and his lieutenant tupp has.


Now you are just resorting to lame trolling.
Ahigh
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May 13th, 2013 at 11:00:18 PM permalink
Yeah, I really didn't want to break out the counter, but if I'm going to break it out, I'll have as much fun as I can with it.

Last time they loved it, but there wasn't as many people at the table.

This time was a little different is all b/c this guy didn't already know who I was and was a little worried about me.
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EvenBob
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May 13th, 2013 at 11:09:52 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Yeah, I really didn't want to break out the counter, but if I'm going to break it out, I'll have as much fun as I can with it.

Last time they loved it, but there wasn't as many people at the table.

This time was a little different is all b/c this guy didn't already know who I was and was a little worried about me.

th

They will always love it as long as they think you're a harmless eccentric. If they think for a minute you are anything more than an average player, they will no longer love you or it. To you its a little game, to them its their jobs on the line.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
tupp
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May 13th, 2013 at 11:10:08 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

There is nothing wrong with researching dice bias, but recording rolls in a casino is not the most efficient way. The most efficient way is to look at the manufacturing process and see if it has safeguards to be sure the final product is equally balanced.


No. Approaching a manufacturer is not the most efficient way. You really have no clue. A manufacturer has a vested interest in such an investigation making them look good, and that is only if a manufacturer lets you in the front door in the first place. So, the information will automatically be skewed, if you can even get it. Not very efficient.

The quickest and most accurate way to get info on dice bias is to directly record rolls and to try and be as thorough and precise as possible.



Quote: AlanMendelson

There are so many flaws and potential pitfalls in counting used dice on a casino table with individual shooters throwing them every which way, and no control over the brands, or the level of wear, or how the dice are thrown that this all becomes a ridiculous "experiment."

What the heck do you expect it to show? And after you get the results how many different ways will you have to be able to discount the findings?

This idea of counting "faces" is simplistic but has zero controls. Again let me just list a few of the variables/controls:
[snip]


You can't seem to comprehend that all of these variables have been dealt with or have been eliminated, even though it has been explained several times.

I am getting a little concerned about you. Your posts are getting crazier and your mentality is becoming disturbingly dense. Either you are off your meds, or you have to be the dimmest bulb that I have ever encountered.
Ahigh
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May 13th, 2013 at 11:13:55 PM permalink
Quote: Beethoven9th

Will you be playing at MSS or CR in two weeks?



I have it on my calendar as a day off from playing craps. LOL. Of course I'm playing.
aahigh.com
boymimbo
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May 14th, 2013 at 6:19:37 AM permalink
Quote: tupp

volley to Mendelson



Counting faces indiscriminately is the crudest method to attempting to measure bias.

However, if bias is found, you can then investigate the "why". It could be many reasons:

(1) controlled shooting actually works and the bias you see are of controlled shooters attempting to throw a particular set of numbers.
(2) manufacturer bias on any or all die in the same way which skews all dice to a biased result.
(3) manufacturer bias on some die in different ways which skews all some dice to the same biased result.
(4) dice become biased over time to the same results due to wear and tear.

Because you are measuring faces and casino names only, the data is limited in its usefulness. BUT IT ISN'T USELESS.

Consider a nationwide poll. Over the entire nation, 52% will vote Obama and 48% will vote Romney. However, state by state data shows that in California, 60% will vote for Obama while in Alabama, 70% will vote for Romney. Why are there differences between states' individual results?

Collecting the face data is the start of the investigation, not the finish. It's the nationwide poll without collecting the meaningful demographics.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
SanchoPanza
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May 14th, 2013 at 6:58:18 AM permalink
Quote: tupp

The quickest and most accurate way to get info on dice bias is to directly record rolls and to try and be as thorough and precise as possible.

A hell of a lot quicker and far more accurate way to determine any aberrations is to conduct materials analyses of the objects in question. Presumably without even having to resort to mass spectrometry.
Bohemian
Bohemian
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May 14th, 2013 at 7:41:22 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

There is nothing wrong with researching dice bias, but recording rolls in a casino is not the most efficient way. The most efficient way is to look at the manufacturing process and see if it has safeguards to be sure the final product is equally balanced.

There are so many flaws and potential pitfalls in counting used dice on a casino table with individual shooters throwing them every which way, and no control over the brands, or the level of wear, or how the dice are thrown that this all becomes a ridiculous "experiment."

What the heck do you expect it to show? And after you get the results how many different ways will you have to be able to discount the findings?

This idea of counting "faces" is simplistic but has zero controls. Again let me just list a few of the variables/controls:

1. brand of dice
2. level of wear
3. how they were thrown
4. impurities on the dice surface including stickiness, moisture (since we are talking about tiny differences don't excluse these)
5. weight of the dice (they can vary among manufacturers)
6. size of the dice (they can vary among manufacturers)
7. manufacturing process
8. table conditions
9. accurate reporting of the rolls
10. sample size

Those are ten challenges that can be presented to any data you might come up with. If you want a scientific examination of the dias for bias then do it under scientific (laboratory) conditions where all of these variables are controlled.



AlanMendelson, wonderful idea. Now all you need is some real casino dice, preferably non-canceled. Can you use your credentials to get some for us? Regarding 3., Ahigh's tossing gadget would do nicely.
MrV
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May 14th, 2013 at 8:03:29 AM permalink
Quote: Bohemian

AlanMendelson, wonderful idea. Now all you need is some real casino dice, preferably non-canceled. Can you use your credentials to get some for us? Regarding 3., Ahigh's tossing gadget would do nicely.



This could solve the "entertainment issue" for WoVCon: after lunching at Sugar Factory and rolling dem bones at CR, the group could all cab over to Aaron's home to partake in a massive dice rolling experiment, filmed and broadcast live of course, the results organized and displayed in colorful, electronic form onscreen.

Heck, we could "test" the dice for "bias" and then we could each try our best to uncork a "controlled throw."

Casinos? We don't need no stinkin' casinos ...

What happens in Vegas ...
"What, me worry?"
AlanMendelson
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May 14th, 2013 at 8:10:12 AM permalink
Quote: Bohemian

AlanMendelson, wonderful idea. Now all you need is some real casino dice, preferably non-canceled. Can you use your credentials to get some for us? Regarding 3., Ahigh's tossing gadget would do nicely.



I like to do things the "easy way," so my first question would be do the manufacturers of casino dice also sell to the public the same type of dice that the casinos buy but without the obvious casino branding or casino colors?

Somehow I think that it is unlikely that the dice companies would go to the trouble of manufacturing specific biased dice just for the casinos. I think if they did we would have heard about it by now.

You see -- I have faith in human beings to do the right thing. I think if there were biased casino dice some casino executive or some employee of some dice company, or some casino dealer would have stepped forward by now and sent a letter to the Washington Post or the New York Times or 60 Minutes. This would be a major news story if ever proven.

I could picture Steve Kroft on Sunday night....

(tick, tick, tick, tick) (tight shot of dice hitting the table and rolling to the back wall, followed by shots of craps pits, dice, money on tables, chips in play)
Kroft voice over: "24 hours a day, 7 days a week, gamblers in America try their luck with dice in casinos. But Lady Luck isn't always there to lend a helping hand for that proverbial roll of the dice because the big fix -- made famous in Hollywood blockbusters -- might be in place right now. I'm Steve Kroft. That story and more tonight on 60 Minutes."
dicesitter
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May 14th, 2013 at 8:30:59 AM permalink
Alan


My heart has always told me that given a choice, most people would do the right
thing in any given situation.

My head and my job tells me that is a false premis. I have for years investigated
the real bad side of people in the housing/banking drama that has played out for
us in the past 6 years. Never in a million years would i have thought i would find
what i have found.....

So my head has changed my heart a little.

In terms of biased dice i have to agree with you....the casino's have a pretty good
advantage with honest dice. The only way a casino can lose is if it is found cheating
with biased dice..

In this case doing the right thing insures the casino's a steady flow of our money.

dicesetter
Bohemian
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May 14th, 2013 at 8:31:08 AM permalink
Quote: SanchoPanza

A hell of a lot quicker and far more accurate way to determine any aberrations is to conduct materials analyses of the objects in question. Presumably without even having to resort to mass spectrometry.


SanchoPanza, been done, see video evidence here:

Quote: Koganinja777

In this video series I will be presenting new information helping to prove the existence of unbalanced dice that Las Vegas casinos use on a regular basis. This 15 part video series



Table of Content and links to each video:
Unbalanced Dice Follow Up Videos By Koganinja777

1) My Introduction & What You Will Learn Part 1
http://youtu.be/0_pwXPJaYpY

2) My Introduction & What You Will Learn Part 2
http://youtu.be/z6gq226JYUM

3) Steve Fortes Books 1
http://youtu.be/xCwv_SnNFv4

4) Steve Fortes Books 2
http://youtu.be/yt6c6eTIz-8

5) Steve Fortes Books 3
http://youtu.be/Yg08m3QCujE

6) Robert Spira's Books
http://youtu.be/kduHJStDlLo

7) Steve Fortes Videos
http://youtu.be/jg1JxfMZ35c

8) Understanding The Dice Balancing Caliper
http://youtu.be/0US5XoZOKGo

9) Dice Test 1 Bad Dice
http://youtu.be/wid7awFq3yk

10) Dice Test 2 Good Dice
http://youtu.be/zj7NyKVJMm0

11) Why Not To Play The Darkside With Bad Dice
http://youtu.be/ZMgNuEiQbtA

12) The AHigh Show Part 1 The Epic Revelation
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3x27QVPfMd0

13) The AHigh Show Part 2 The Epic Revelation
http://youtu.be/a3Hodn7fNUY

14) The AHigh Show Part 3 The Epic Revelation
http://youtu.be/A1i9YkLlFA4

15) My Closing Thoughts
http://youtu.be/89PFXSXyLx8
Ahigh
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May 14th, 2013 at 8:46:04 AM permalink
Well, if it hasn't been clear yet, it sure seems like Bohemian is Harley reincarnated. I have asked Harley in private messages by cell phone to stay out of the conversation and that it would be in his best interest to do so. I just don't think that Koga Ninja's perspectives are going to be the enlightening ones here. This is all old information and a post very similar to the above post has even been made before.
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nezbit
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May 14th, 2013 at 9:39:34 AM permalink
i havent read whole post nor do i plan on doing so. but biased dice sounds a little ridiculous to me, sounds like a cop out when a DI/DC is throwing like shit. You get to choose your dice from 6 total dice. in order for dice to be biased the 2 chosen dice must correlate or it will still come up random.

ex: if one dice is coming up 5 way to often (biased) then and only then would it be unfair or biased against the shooter if the other chosen dice was coming up 2 way to often thus creating abnormally high amounts of 7s.

my thoughts about biased dice are people who think they can avoid the 7 want to find a way to blame something else besides their throwing arm, motion, or the fact its not humanly possible on something besides themselves.

..."well if these dice werent rigged (biased) i would throw a lot better..."

C'mon Man!
Ahigh
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May 14th, 2013 at 9:43:19 AM permalink
Quote: nezbit

i havent read whole post nor do i plan on doing so. but biased dice sounds a little ridiculous to me, sounds like a cop out when a DI/DC is throwing like shit. You get to choose your dice from 6 total dice. in order for dice to be biased the 2 chosen dice must correlate or it will still come up random.

ex: if one dice is coming up 5 way to often (biased) then and only then would it be unfair or biased against the shooter if the other chosen dice was coming up 2 way to often thus creating abnormally high amounts of 7s.

my thoughts about biased dice are people who think they can avoid the 7 want to find a way to blame something else besides their throwing arm, motion, or the fact its not humanly possible on something besides themselves.

..."well if these dice werent rigged (biased) i would throw a lot better..."

C'mon Man!



It's easier to just blame the stick man, but yes, blaming biased dice is yet another scape goat for the degenerate gambler. Add in the cocktail waitress and coming to the table with $50 bills, there's a whole list, but sure.

However, I think it's easy to understand that all dice are biased. Claiming that biased dice sounds ridiculous is the real cop out, because there's a metric shit-ton of work to get to tens of thousands of samples, and without that many samples, it's nearly impossible to know if the average die being used in the average casino is fair or not.

But yeah, I don't want to do the work either. I don't even want to be associated with people who are counting faces! It's sort of the type of thing that puts a weird association of being retarded just to even think there's any value to looking at face counts. Most crews are pretty myopic when it comes to the usefulness of such data, and you have to tell them something as they all want to know what you're doing.
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nezbit
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May 14th, 2013 at 9:54:38 AM permalink
think what i stated is already pretty clear on how biased dice could negatively hurt the shooter. its not happening in any real casinos. if someone was rolling a single die then maybe so, but 2 dice together have to be directly correlated for any sort of bias to take place.

just think how cool if would be if this was true and the house gave u biased dice, say 5 hits more on half and 2 hits more on other half of the 6 dice you choose from

this means 25% of time you get 5/5 dice set, 25% you get a 2/2 dice set and 50% of time you get the 5/2 2/5 dice set. either way, i would be happy to get the 5/5 or 2/2 50% of the time where i will shoot for days since the dice will be rigged in my favor instead of against me.
Jimbo
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May 14th, 2013 at 9:58:01 AM permalink
Aaron/Ahigh--I still look forward to your answer to my questions in response to your following statement(s):

Quote: Ahigh

But floor personnel are looking at holds and they are associating better holds with particular types of dice. Maybe you want to word it the same way and say they are noting when the table dumps more with particular types of dice, but I'll say that it's a different way of saying the same thing.
...
And this is not an allegation of wrongdoing. This is what they are SUPPOSED to do. Pull dice off the table when they are dumping and put new dice on the table until the table doesn't dump. Whether it's on an hour by hour basis or a day by day basis makes no difference. They want the dice that have the better holds.

You have often commented that you are honest (that you don't lie) and you frequently comment about things that you expound to be an expert in and apparently you have facts and proof to back up your statements on a variety of subjects.

So, here, you state clearly that floor personnel are tracking table holds/dumps with particular types of dice and changing out the dice depending on whether the table is dumping or not. And this goes on (hour by hour and day by day) in order for the tables to have better holds.

And this is what floor personnel is supposed to do.

I have asked before. Do you actually believe this? What is your source? Where is the proof of this?

I thought that maybe in not responding to this, that you acknowledge these statements of yours are not true.
Ahigh
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May 14th, 2013 at 9:58:11 AM permalink
Quote: nezbit

think what i stated is already pretty clear on how biased dice could negatively hurt the shooter. its not happening in any real casinos. if someone was rolling a single die then maybe so, but 2 dice together have to be directly correlated for any sort of bias to take place.

just think how cool if would be if this was true and the house gave u biased dice, say 5 hits more on half and 2 hits more on other half of the 6 dice you choose from

this means 25% of time you get 5/5 dice set, 25% you get a 2/2 dice set and 50% of time you get the 5/2 2/5 dice set. either way, i would be happy to get the 5/5 or 2/2 50% of the time where i will shoot for days since the dice will be rigged in my favor instead of against me.



You are a perfect sample of the average craps player, Nezbit. That much I can give you credit for. Reading what you are saying, especially your admitted ignorance is fantastically revealing. It is the average craps player that has me constantly searching for an empty table so that I can focus.

aahigh.com
Bohemian
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May 14th, 2013 at 10:21:41 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Well, if it hasn't been clear yet, it sure seems like Bohemian is Harley reincarnated. I have asked Harley in private messages by cell phone to stay out of the conversation and that it would be in his best interest to do so. I just don't think that Koga Ninja's perspectives are going to be the enlightening ones here. This is all old information and a post very similar to the above post has even been made before.



AHigh, you are FoS. I have never received a text from you. I don't even know your phone number, and you sure don't know mine. Sure I have read some of Harley's writings, haven't you? How do I know you are not Harley?

Personally I hope Harley ignores your controlling texts and does post here. From reading his website I think he knows a little bit more about the subject than a lot of you guys do. His advice opened my eyes and I have made a little money from his advice. So Text him for me and tell him thank you!
Ahigh
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May 14th, 2013 at 10:33:49 AM permalink
Quote: Bohemian

AHigh, you are FoS.



I'm not full of shit, I'm just calling it like I see it. But I asked Harley to keep his and his disciples away from this discussion. I'm more than happy to just bow out of the whole thing. I don't think we're going to get anywhere with the dogma of Harley and Harley people participating, frankly.
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Bohemian
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May 14th, 2013 at 11:40:22 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

I have asked Harley in private messages by cell phone to stay out of the conversation and that it would be in his best
interest to do so.



I had to think about this for a second and reread it. Seriously, you texted someone and told them not to post? Are you Harley's boss or his Mother or do you just enjoy censoring people.

BTW, I believe you just admitted that you violated Forum Rule 4. and maybe 15.

My post was in response to a post, if you don't like it refute it without name calling and violating somebody's privacy.
EvenBob
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May 14th, 2013 at 11:59:49 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

But I asked Harley to keep his and his disciples away from this discussion.



I thought the Wiz banned Harley, I should have
guessed it was really you pulling the strings. (guffaw)
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Ahigh
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May 14th, 2013 at 12:17:02 PM permalink
Quote: Bohemian

I had to think about this for a second and reread it. Seriously, you texted someone and told them not to post? Are you Harley's boss or his Mother or do you just enjoy censoring people.

BTW, I believe you just admitted that you violated Forum Rule 4. and maybe 15.

My post was in response to a post, if you don't like it refute it without name calling and violating somebody's privacy.



It was all made under the assumption that Bohemian == Harley. As far as rules violation, I invite a nuke/ban if what I did was against the rules! Please ban/nuke me to enforce ANY rules that I broke!!!

I'm pretty sure I failed to disclose ANYTHING private at all. I said what *I* said to him, not private information revealed to me BY Harley, and I there's nothing private about that.

As far as who you are, if you're not Harley, I would make a pretty serious wager that you're Koga Ninja. And if you are, I'd like to tell you very personally that the quality level of your videos and level of accuracy of your conclusions are really pretty weak overall.

It was actually the Wizard's idea to create the thread. I just didn't want it to be polluted with junk like Koga Ninja's horrible conclusions. The whole idea here is to try to be scientific about this, and already we're WAY off track with this whole discussion about Harley.

I'm done as long as we're just talking about Harley and the drama of Harley. Right now, it's up to the Wizard and Face to continue on. It's a lot of work to collect samples, and with even one person thinking this is the doings of Harley or the biased dice crew I'm not even sure it's worth the trouble to open up another chapter in the Soap Opera of Biased Dice.
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MrV
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May 14th, 2013 at 12:24:28 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

As far as rules violation, I invite a nuke/ban if what I did was against the rules! Please ban/nuke me to enforce ANY rules that I broke!!!



Perhaps you should voluntarily ban yourself for a week.

Sure, that way you can spend even more time in the casinos.

I'd call that a win-win.
"What, me worry?"
Ahigh
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May 14th, 2013 at 12:25:54 PM permalink
No the point is, I didn't break any rules. People just love to think they know stuff they don't really know is all.
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Face
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May 14th, 2013 at 1:49:48 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Right now, it's up to the Wizard and Face to continue on.



God, I hope not lol. I've got about 16 hours of mind numbing work into this, which produced but a drop in the ocean required. I agree with boymimbo in that it's not completely worthless, but its worth is painfully low. I think I could dedicate my life to counting rolls and still come up short.

I think two big things have come from this so far.

One is that funny things happen. Just look at the #2 and #3 face counts that boymimbo analyzed. If you played that table and saw that, you might be wondering, too. But of course, after things were allowed to pan out, it made little to no difference in the end. Really, who plays Craps and doesn’t see some crazy happenings?

Second is the conversation surrounding my counts. Boymimbo has probably said the nicest thing about them, “they’re not completely useless” lol. Everyone else with a scientific mind is saying there is no or nearly no worth to this whatsoever. Yet this is exactly how the BD crew must go about identifying bias.

I had a whole other page of reply going into a number of details, but it’s really not necessary (unless someone wants to answer to all the questions in my reply, of course). I put BD in the same category as my own quasi-martingale-gambler’s-fallacy based PaiGow strategy. Fun to play, so go ahead and do it. Just don’t claim it’s based in reality ;)
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Ahigh
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May 14th, 2013 at 2:06:44 PM permalink
I'm there for ya Face. You are absolutely the one doing all the work right now. I absolutely appreciate your efforts, and will absolutely pay you for your data. Go ahead and give me a paypal and I can get money to you as soon as you're ready for the work you've already done.

When Alan Mendelson was telling me that I didn't collect enough samples at Fiesta (or maybe it was someone else) and they were barking orders at what I had to do for them, I about flipped my lid!

It's very time consuming work.
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Face
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May 14th, 2013 at 2:25:45 PM permalink
Lol, again, you're welcome, but I'm more liable to accept payments in beaver pelts than to have a PayPal =D

I didn't do this with the expectation of getting paid. To be honest, things just worked out. I had an opportunity to do it, I needed something to keep my mind from wandering, and I wanted to sort of peek into the BD claim. Based on your original offer, I assumed right away that I was ineligible so it matters not. No disrespect intended, but I'd not accept payment even if insisted.

Most times, the mental stimulation is payment enough.
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Ahigh
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May 14th, 2013 at 2:33:13 PM permalink
Quote: Face

Lol, again, you're welcome, but I'm more liable to accept payments in beaver pelts than to have a PayPal =D

I didn't do this with the expectation of getting paid. To be honest, things just worked out. I had an opportunity to do it, I needed something to keep my mind from wandering, and I wanted to sort of peek into the BD claim. Based on your original offer, I assumed right away that I was ineligible so it matters not. No disrespect intended, but I'd not accept payment even if insisted.

Most times, the mental stimulation is payment enough.



Right on, well I appreciate it very much, and let me know if you need anything at all.
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AlanMendelson
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May 14th, 2013 at 4:33:37 PM permalink
Jimbo: did you get a response yet?
Ahigh
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May 14th, 2013 at 4:50:51 PM permalink
Quote: Jimbo

Quote: Ahigh

But floor personnel are looking at holds and they are associating better holds with particular types of dice. Maybe you want to word it the same way and say they are noting when the table dumps more with particular types of dice, but I'll say that it's a different way of saying the same thing.
...
And this is not an allegation of wrongdoing. This is what they are SUPPOSED to do. Pull dice off the table when they are dumping and put new dice on the table until the table doesn't dump. Whether it's on an hour by hour basis or a day by day basis makes no difference. They want the dice that have the better holds.

Aaron/Ahigh--I still look forward to your answer to my questions in response to your following statement(s):

You have often commented that you are honest (that you don't lie) and you frequently comment about things that you expound to be an expert in and apparently you have facts and proof to back up your statements on a variety of subjects.

So, here, you state clearly that floor personnel are tracking table holds/dumps with particular types of dice and changing out the dice depending on whether the table is dumping or not. And this goes on (hour by hour and day by day) in order for the tables to have better holds.

And this is what floor personnel is supposed to do.

I have asked before. Do you actually believe this? What is your source? Where is the proof of this?

I thought that maybe in not responding to this, that you acknowledge these statements of yours are not true.



No this is absolutely true and I stand by it. This information is based on observation. The expression "check the dice" or "change the dice" is the one that goes along with this thinking. We've talked about this before. I have asked specific experienced personnel about this before.

The specific people who have told me this include Wayne (floor manager at the Silverton) and the more senior Patrick (works as box and dealer on craps). Both these guys also worked at Sunset Station before Silverton. Wayne was in charge of quite a bit at Sunset Station over there, and I'm pretty sure they ran that place similarly to how they run the Silverton.

Feel free to verify this information. I did not make a claim that each and every casino absolutely has to do this. But multiple personnel do this at the Silverton. And that's enough to make my statement true and I stand by my statement and statements.

Anyone who wants to challenge the truth of my statement, tell me exactly what issues you have with the statement, and we can go about resolving the truth of this statement specifically with the people who told me this at the Silverton. This issue has come up before and people have doubted me. I think the phrase I would quote from Patrick is, "any time the table is dumping, I'll change the dice."

Very clear.
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Wizard
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May 14th, 2013 at 5:09:55 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

No this is absolutely true and I stand by it. This information is based on observation. The expression "check the dice" or "change the dice" is the one that goes along with this thinking. We've talked about this before. I have asked specific experienced personnel about this before.



Sadly, I don't doubt this. I would submit for consideration that the reason for switching the dice was just superstition, as opposed to bringing out the loaded dice when the table is dumping.

A friend of mine dealt at the Gold Coast years ago and he said they kept some dice in the refrigerator, in case a table was running too hot.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Bohemian
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May 14th, 2013 at 5:23:18 PM permalink
Cheeze. A casino is a multi million dollar business that relies on increased holds and increased profit margins, not superstitions.
Face
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May 14th, 2013 at 5:24:07 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Very clear.



Clear indeed.

It's funny how many here have no problem calling casino personnel "C and D students" and have story upon story of their complete ineptness, yet can't seem to believe that a Floor could hold the same pointless superstitions as the masses.

I don't doubt for a second that they ditch "hot dice". Just as they give out bad basic strategy and worry about Roulette results.

If someone were to say "they do it because they dice are hot", I'd challenge them. If Ahigh said that, it needs to be challenged. That is worlds apart, though, from "they do that because they believe they get hot". That's just more "C and D".

Edit: Wiz beat me to it.
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SanchoPanza
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May 14th, 2013 at 5:26:18 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

The phrase I would quote from Patrick is, "any time the table is dumping, I'll change the dice."

And I've had floor supervisors and box personnel tell me things like the tables turn very cold every time it snows outside. Such humor is classified in Yiddish as bubbermeisters, as rendered by the Urban Dictionary. This is a solid foundation for pretensions to "scientific" research? Spare us.
Ahigh
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May 14th, 2013 at 5:27:25 PM permalink
Quote: Bohemian

Cheeze. A casino is a multi million dollar business that relies on increased holds and increased profit margins, not superstitions.



The same Patrick that told me this also said, and I quote, "some of these casinos are more superstitious than any of the players out there!"

Go and find him and ask him, if you want. He's halfway retired, but this guy has been around a VERY long time. Many dealers in town know the elder Patrick. I love the guy too. Very sharp and very knowledgeable. He has a very sharp wit and loves to point out mistakes others are making. Doesn't say much but when he does, it's worth listening to.
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Ahigh
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May 14th, 2013 at 5:28:37 PM permalink
Quote: SanchoPanza

And I've had floor supervisors and box personnel tell me things like the tables turn very cold every time it snows outside. Such humor is classified in Yiddish as bubbermeisters, as rendered by the Urban Dictionary. This is a solid foundation for pretensions to "scientific" research? Spare us.



I'm not talking about humor. I'm talking about associations that casino personnel make about dice. Whether it's a valid way to do business or not is another topic entirely. But they absolutely do it. Maybe not all of them, but certainly some of them.
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