Biased Dice: The science begins
Quote: AlanMendelsonAll the words are yours, not mine, Aaron Hightower.
The word "allege" is yours. Your accusing me of alleging any casino of doing anything is false. I made no such allegations! Otherwise show me where I claimed that any casinos were breaking even a single law!
I cited data that more closely matched the p-value of theoretically biased dice. But that is hardly an allegation! I think you just make this stuff up in your mind.
I would guess that all casino dice are manufactured to meet the standards required by the most stringent governing body. I have done absolutely no research, but domestically I'd expect that to be PA, IL, or MO.
Quote: rdw4potusAre the rules regarding dice up there in Faceland the same as they are in NV (which, I guess, means that there are none). If not, then there's no reason to think that Face's rolls are helping to determine whether there is bias in the dice in play in NV.
I would guess that all casino dice are manufactured to meet the standards required by the most stringent governing body. I have done absolutely no research, but domestically I'd expect that to be PA, IL, or MO.
To the rules and regs question, I always think of one thing - What would happen to Bee or Paulson or whoever if it was found their dice were bunk?
Do they have any single thing to gain if the dice were jacked? I can't think of anything.
Do they have any single thing to lose if they were jacked? Only everything.
Maybe others feel differently, but I feel self preservation would be and is a greater motivator than any governing body, legit or corrupt.
Quote: AlanMendelsonI don't have to tell you about your own program which appears to be the start of this campaign of yours -- to blame biased dice on your inability to control the dice.
What a load of CRAP.
Quote: AhighThe word "allege" is yours. Your accusing me of alleging any casino of doing anything is false. I made no such allegations! Otherwise show me where I claimed that any casinos were breaking even a single law!
I cited data that more closely matched the p-value of theoretically biased dice. But that is hardly an allegation! I think you just make this stuff up in your mind.
I will leave your quotes and posts here, and now as archived on Google, to speak for themselves. Good luck.
Quote: BuzzardAhigh, you might want to look up " constructive criticism " in the dictionary. I have not seen anything in Alan's posts to suggest he does not like you. Or have I missed something during my absence ?
Saying I blame bad dice for rolling sevens on that particular Ahigh show isn't "constructive criticism." It's a fabrication.
Quote: AlanMendelsonI will leave your quotes and posts here, and now as archived on Google, to speak for themselves. Good luck.
Whatever you say, Alan. How about your lying about me? We can all read what you say too. Your claiming that I blame bad dice for rolling sevens on the Ahigh show is an obvious lie as demonstrated by my link where I say, and I quote, "it's just randomness."
Here's something I will tell you that's not a lie: you are known to fabricate statements that I did not make in order to defame my character.
Quote: FaceTo the rules and regs question, I always think of one thing - What would happen to Bee or Paulson or whoever if it was found their dice were bunk?
Do they have any single thing to gain if the dice were jacked? I can't think of anything.
Do they have any single thing to lose if they were jacked? Only everything.
Maybe others feel differently, but I feel self preservation would be and is a greater motivator than any governing body, legit or corrupt.
I agree that there's no way that this would happen at the corporate level at the manufacturers. But I wonder how many employees would have to be bribed in order to "accidentally" jack up the dice that were destined for one casino. I mean, that shit looked pretty easy in Ocean's 13...:-)
@ME and the other detractors –
I totally agree with your objections to this test from a scientific standpoint. Of course this test is lacking controls; hell, I can’t even keep track of the individual dice. Looking in, I see 100 different variables and am using dice that one could not possibly ID and monitor on an individual basis.
BUT, isn’t that the exact point? Isn’t then this test absolutely perfect? I mean, the BD crew isn’t saying they proved it, they didn’t do this mess in a lab, or anything close to a true, scientific method based experiment.
They’re saying they can tell at the table. They’re saying that by seeing the exact same things I’m seeing and providing for all here to see that they can determine a bias and attack it. Not only that, but that it can be done in far fewer than the amount of rolls needed to give a large enough sample.
The tracking of dice is simply impossible. I don’t care if there were only 2 dice to a table, tracking them as they bounce and scatter is tough. Tracking them when the stick scoops them up and flings them to center is harder. Tracking them when a chucker shakes them in his hand before the toss is impossible. While tracking specific dice would be needed for a true scientific experiment to answer the question “are dice biased”, tracking specific dice to answer the question “can bias be detected at the table” doesn’t apply. I’d almost say “must be removed”, because that’s a key part of their claim.
I await my incoming pummeling. Please be gentle lol ;)
Quote: AhighYeah, you have all kinds of credibility. .
I'm not the one calling people liars and saying
they're wrong all the time, you are.
Quote: Face
The tracking of dice is simply impossible.)
Of course it is, thats why this argument never ends.
Its why organized religion does so well. You can't
prove god exists, but you can't prove he doesn't
exist either.
Until then, I'm sorry, but Alan is lying on this specific thing, and that's his problem, not mine!
I don't go around making up things that aren't true just to make people look bad, but apparently Alan can't even tell when he is doing just such a thing.
And apologize to me about this: I would never in a million years expect that from Alan. I can't even think of a single time Alan has admitted he was wrong about anything, much less apologized to someone about it.
Case closed!!
Until/unless the manufactures do that, I can't say that I think they are doing 100% of everything that they can do to ensure that the dice are bouncing fairly.
I can definitely say that they are doing everything that has been known previously to make a fair die.
I absolutely don't think there's a conspiracy to hold more money. But floor personnel are looking at holds and they are associating better holds with particular types of dice. Maybe you want to word it the same way and say they are noting when the table dumps more with particular types of dice, but I'll say that it's a different way of saying the same thing.
That's the only feedback loop necessary to get dice that favor the casino out on the table. They don't need excel spreadsheets to figure out what dice make them more money. Just blunt association.
And this is not an allegation of wrongdoing. This is what they are SUPPOSED to do. Pull dice off the table when they are dumping and put new dice on the table until the table doesn't dump. Whether it's on an hour by hour basis or a day by day basis makes no difference. They want the dice that have the better holds.
Quote: AhighYou have a comprehension problem. All I said about Mandalay Bay counts was that they all looked fair. Where are the posts where I alleged anything at all was happening that was illegal? Where is it? I just don't see it. Allegation is a very strong word, Mr. Mendelson.
You said the Bee Dice looked fair. But the Bee Dice were being removed and you made the comment that you heard there were advantage players there. And the connection for the change of dice to another brand?
Quote: AlanMendelsonI'm not going to sue you Aaron, but what about your comments about the Fiesta Rancho and Mandalay Bay, for a start?
What statement? Right off the bat, the only thing I said about Mandalay Bay was that they had what appeared to be fair dice.
And about Fiesta Rancho? What statement? The statement that the p-value fit a theoretically biased die more closely than a fair one?
Let's nail it down to what statement I made before we go on. I made no allegations anywhere that they were using biased dice.
I pointed out that the outcomes supported the biased dice theorists.
I made absolutely no allegations that I can find anywhere that they were breaking any laws.
Quote: AlanMendelsonI'm not going to sue you Aaron, but what about your comments about the Fiesta Rancho and Mandalay Bay, for a start?
Listen, the sound of crickets as Ahigh ignores the question..
Quote: AhighAnd on the subject of wanting to make fair dice: it's not rocket science. Drill seven holes in each goddamn side and fill some of them with white resin and some of them with resin colored the same as the transparent part of the dice.
Case closed!!
Earlier I posted a link to a manufacturer's website where they say the pips have the same weight as the material removed from the cube.
Quote: EvenBobListen, the sound of crickets as Ahigh ignores the question..
What what what? You guys are just full of crap. Both of you. Just a bunch of nonsense from both of you!
Quote: AhighWhat statement? Right off the bat, the only thing I said about Mandalay Bay was that they had what appeared to be fair dice.
And about Fiesta Rancho? What statement? The statement that the p-value fit a theoretically biased die more closely than a fair one?
Let's nail it down to what statement I made before we go on. I made no allegations anywhere that they were using biased dice.
I pointed out that the outcomes supported the biased dice theorists.
I made absolutely no allegations that I can find anywhere that they were breaking any laws.
Well this is all very interesting. So why are you bothering with all of this about testing for biased dice?
Seems to me you have no suspicion about biased dice. Please state that and let's end this.
Quote: AlanMendelsonEarlier I posted a link to a manufacturer's website where they say the pips have the same weight as the material removed from the cube.
All that I'm saying is that there are different number of pips on each face. If each face had seven pips, and each of those pips was colored with one of two colors to denote the number associated with that face, the resulting transparent portion of the cube would be 100% symmetric.
Right now, the dice has a different number of holes drilled in each side. So while it may be uniform in density, it is not uniform in rigidity. There are not even rules for uniform rigidity for casino dice. Two materials, two coefficients of restitution.
Do you believe that any casino uses biased dice?
Do you believe that at any time any casino has switched into a game biased dice?
Do you believe that the dice of any manufacturer is biased and not fair?
Yes or no answers are all that is needed.
Quote: EvenBobListen, the sound of crickets as Ahigh ignores the question..
Back with the personal attacks?
By the way, Ahigh answered the question directly and in detail.
Quote: AlanMendelsonWell this is all very interesting. So why are you bothering with all of this about testing for biased dice?
Seems to me you have no suspicion about biased dice. Please state that and let's end this.
It doesn't matter if I suspect biased dice or not. I am the guy looking to do the work to look into the possibility.
It seems like someone with a history of reporting could relate to that. But you think the only reason I would be interested in this would be if I thought if I were suspicious that it was happening?
All I want is the same thing that everyone should want, and that is the most assurances possible that the dice are 100% fair.
Right now, measurements is as far as it goes. And when I use my balance on precision casino dice from any manufacturer, they generally all read off balance. Maybe it's due to bubbles inside the pip resin that can't be seen by the naked eye. Maybe it's something else. Maybe it doesn't matter that they are off balance because it's not enough.
But the truth is that nobody generally cares enough to worry about it. And the results coming from these dice are not tested. They are mic'd and done.
I think that everybody should want the fairest dice possible, and generally speaking nobody cares about the details aside from density and measurement, it's all done. That's all that matters to anyone making the dice and that's all that matters to anyone buying the dice and putting them on a table.
If the dice are not perfectly balanced, I'm pretty sure nobody has the equipment to know that .. because they are not perfectly balanced.
But the point is that balance or no balance, the only thing that matters is the outcome. And that's what we're looking at here. If the outcomes come out as all fair, then we're done, aren't we?
I will tell you how I would make a perfectly balanced die, though: I would use metal pips that are a different density than the transparent part of the cube. And the metal would be 100% solid and precise. And there would be seven pieces of metal in each side of the die. The fact that the density is different would be 100% fine since there is an equal number of pips on each side of the die. Just use different colors. The end.
But you might also like to respond to those three questions.
Quote: AlanMendelsonBefore we spend another moment on this, please state your position:
Do you believe that any casino uses biased dice?
Do you believe that at any time any casino has switched into a game biased dice?
Do you believe that the dice of any manufacturer is biased and not fair?
Yes or no answers are all that is needed.
I have flagged this post. How dare Alan ask for a Yes or No answer ?
You've done enough. Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last? Have you left no sense of decency?
Quote: AlanMendelsonEarlier I posted a link to a manufacturer's website where they say the pips have the same weight as the material removed from the cube.
Thank you. Unfortunately, your post came long after the fact. Relative pip density has been thoroughly discussed in earlier threads.
Furthermore, pip density doesn't account for potential differences in dice edge flexing due to the differing number of pips along the dice edges.
Quote: AhighAnd when I use my balance on precision casino dice from any manufacturer, they generally all read off balance.
If the dice are not perfectly balanced, I'm pretty sure nobody has the equipment to know that .. because they are not perfectly balanced.
But the point is that balance or no balance, the only thing that matters is the outcome. And that's what we're looking at here. If the outcomes come out as all fair, then we're done, aren't we?
First: is this your balance with the peanut butter?
You are alleging that all dice "from any manufacturer" "all read off balance."
That's all you had to say. Good luck.
Quote: AlanMendelsonBefore we spend another moment on this, please state your position:
Do you believe that any casino uses biased dice?
Do you believe that at any time any casino has switched into a game biased dice?
Do you believe that the dice of any manufacturer is biased and not fair?
Yes or no answers are all that is needed.
Yes, yes, yes. Now, ask me about whether there is/was any knowledge or intent involved in those actions:-)
Quote: AhighAnd on the subject of wanting to make fair dice: it's not rocket science. Drill seven holes in each goddamn side and fill some of them with white resin and some of them with resin colored the same as the transparent part of the dice.
I think nine holes would have to be drilled to make all edges identical.
Quote: AlanMendelsonBefore we spend another moment on this, please state your position:
Do you believe that any casino uses biased dice?
Do you believe that at any time any casino has switched into a game biased dice?
Do you believe that the dice of any manufacturer is biased and not fair?
Yes or no answers are all that is needed.
Quote: rdw4potusYes, yes, yes. Now, ask me about whether there is/was any knowledge or intent involved in those actions:-)
Excellent point. Thank you.
Quote: rdw4potusYes, yes, yes. Now, ask me about whether there is/was any knowledge or intent involved in those actions:-)
I think there is intent in Alan's questions. I think the intent of the casinos and the dice manufacturers is to increase profit for the shareholders.
I think that they would be wise to just try it and see and pick the ones that work good. If they had the kind of spreadsheets that I made, I would already be very curious for what purpose they would have them.
It's extremely obvious the yes/no answers to the above questions for anyone, IMO.
What?!?Quote: AhighBut floor personnel are looking at holds and they are associating better holds with particular types of dice. Maybe you want to word it the same way and say they are noting when the table dumps more with particular types of dice, but I'll say that it's a different way of saying the same thing.
...
And this is not an allegation of wrongdoing. This is what they are SUPPOSED to do. Pull dice off the table when they are dumping and put new dice on the table until the table doesn't dump. Whether it's on an hour by hour basis or a day by day basis makes no difference. They want the dice that have the better holds.
Aaron/Ahigh, you actually believe this is true?
You know for a fact that (quoting you throughout):
1. Floor personnel are tracking table holds/dumps with particular types of dice; and
2. Floor personnel are pulling dice off the table when they are dumping and putting new dice on the table until the table doesn't dump; and
3. This goes on hour by hour or day by day because they want the dice (in play) that have better holds; and
4. This is what floor personnel is supposed to do.
And you believe each of these statements? Really??
What is your source? Where is the proof of this?
Can we either A) get past personal opinions, or B) just state them and be done with it?
I'll go first - All dice are absolutely biased and said bias is not severe enough to make a single bit of difference. See? One sentence and it's done. Do the same and let's move on...
Here's a two hour, 108 roll session my ignorant brain found interesting. Perhaps a fix-it-up chappie can run this through their Star-On machine and see what it says...
| Face Up | Day #1 |
|---|---|
| 1 | 37 |
| 2 | 13 |
| 3 | 64 |
| 4 | 33 |
| 5 | 41 |
| 6 | 28 |
| Total | 216 |
And those same numbers as rolls, using Harley's table from earlier this thread...
| Dice Result | Expected Count | Sample #1 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 3 | 6 | 0 |
| 4 | 9 | 13 |
| 5 | 12 | 12 |
| 6 | 15 | 20 |
| 7 | 18 | 17 |
| 8 | 15 | 14 |
| 9 | 12 | 15 |
| 10 | 9 | 8 |
| 11 | 6 | 5 |
| 12 | 3 | 2 |
| Total | 108 | 108 |
Quote: FaceI'll go first - All dice are absolutely biased and said bias is not severe enough to make a single bit of difference. See? One sentence and it's done.
Is it done? Or would be attacking the credibility of the dice manufacturers and the integrity of the casinos using those dice.
Missing from this discussion is a representative of the casinos and the manufacturers. In the news business, we would solicit a response from both.
Quote: AhighI think there is intent in Alan's questions.
Of course there is intent. I want you to publicly state what your belief is that is behind your "investigation"? Being objective, I would suggest that having a belief can skew your interpretation of data. When expert witnesses or testing laboratories are called they are not supposed to have any bias. Do you have a bias?
By the way, did you try to sell the gaming industry on your dice balancer?
Quote: Face
I'll go first - All dice are absolutely biased and said bias is not severe enough to make a single bit of difference. See? One sentence and it's done. Do the same and let's move on...
+1. And also, given the usual tolerances in plastics manufacturing, I'm sure that a very small number of more severely biased dice have been, are, and will be unintentionally used. The number of products involved just makes that a near certainty.
Edit: also, that's a really epic trainwreck:-)
Quote: rdw4potus+1. And also, given the usual tolerances in plastics manufacturing, I'm sure that a very small number of more severely biased dice have been, are, and will be unintentionally used. The number of products involved just makes that a near certainty.
Edit: also, that's a really epic trainwreck:-)
Completely agree. We're talking plastic cubes for a game here. On a molecular level, it's an absolute certainty there is some bias, a vast majority of which is too small to make any difference. As for severe bias? Again, it's plastic cubes, mass produced as cheaply as possible. I'm sure there's quality control and I'm sure it's taken seriously, but mistakes happen. After hundereds of millions of dice are produced, it's a guarantee that a batch or 10 have been sufficiently muffed up. Just like e-coli makes it into lettuce and salmonella makes it into a can of Spaghetti O's, it's a rare mistake. Definitely happens, definitely (IMO) not a conspiracy nor something that happens frequently enough to be taken advantage of.
Quote: FaceI'll go first - All dice are absolutely biased and said bias is not severe enough to make a single bit of difference. See? One sentence and it's done. Do the same and let's move on...
Quote: rdw4potus+1. And also, given the usual tolerances in plastics manufacturing, I'm sure that a very small number of more severely biased dice have been, are, and will be unintentionally used. The number of products involved just makes that a near certainty.
Okay. Both of these posts sum up the notions of most folks on this forum concerning the possibility of biased dice. There are also some who think that it is possible that pit staff might use brands of dice which they think has certain "trends." In addition, there are very few here who think that there is a possible conspiracy in which dice manufacturers work with casinos to intentionally produce and use biased dice.
I think that we have covered just about all of the beliefs concerning the possibility of biased dice. Let's get on with recording rolls.
Quote: tuppOkay. Both of these posts sum up the notions of most folks on this forum concerning the possibility of biased dice. There are also some who think that it is possible that pit staff might use brands of dice which they think has certain "trends." In addition, there are very few here who think that there is a possible conspiracy in which dice manufacturers work with casinos to intentionally produce and use biased dice.
I think that we have covered just about all of the beliefs concerning the possibility of biased dice. Let's get on with recording rolls.
Well, since you accept both of those notions then why bother counting?
The first notion says it doesnt make a single difference. The second notion is that the very small number of more severely biased dice will be unintentionally used. So the bottom lines appears to be its not a big problem and nothing you can do about it anyway.
Is this going to be an exercise in futility?
By the way, did Ahigh try to get casinos to buy his spinner/balance-checker ?? What happened??
While you continue to spin your wheels to little or no effect, the State of New Jersey enforces precisely what you seek every day.Quote: AhighAnd on the subject of wanting to make fair dice: it's not rocket science. Drill seven holes in each goddamn side and fill some of them with white resin and some of them with resin colored the same as the transparent part of the dice. Case closed!!
Until/unless the manufactures do that, I can't say that I think they are doing 100% of everything that they can do to ensure that the dice are bouncing fairly.
Quote: SanchoPanzaWhile you continue to spin your wheels to little or no effect, the State of New Jersey enforces precisely what you seek every day.
The fact that non-NV jurisdictions perform that enforcement is one of the reasons that I very strongly suspect that NV's dice are of very high quality as well - it's not like there's one production line at Bee for NJ/PA dice and another for those pesky biased NV chips.
Quote: Face/sighHere's a two hour, 108 roll session my ignorant brain found interesting. Perhaps a fix-it-up chappie can run this through their Star-On machine and see what it says...
Face Up Day #1 1 37 2 13 3 64 4 33 5 41 6 28 Total 216
Well obviously the 2 and 3 are biased here with binomial distribution values of .0000023 and .999999 respectively for a p value of .000000214 --- something's going on here.
Quote: boymimboWell obviously the 2 and 3 are biased here with binomial distribution values of .0000023 and .999999 respectively for a p value of .000000214 --- something's going on here.
Those numbers are Greek to me, although yes, I realize it looks strange.
But did you see the table using those same numbers that show the dice totals? It doesn't look as strange. A little hinky, but not as glaring as the individual numbers.
Really?Quote: WizardI've become a conspiracy-theory believing quack
Quote: teliotReally?
Reminds me of my favorite News Radio episode. "I'm Bill McNeal, on crack! I like boys!"
