Myths About Controlled Shooters, Shooting and the Captain
Quote: AhighThe Wizard is all about telling me how to bet. I don't think the Wizard is the expert since he doesn't even believe in controlled shooting. He's only the expert at betting in theory. Not in reality. He requires luck to win, so if you are betting on good luck, he is the man.
Quote:
Wow, what a ridiculous assertion; might you have topped yourself with this one?
Let me get this straight: you now claim that the only way a person can be a true "expert" at craps is if they "believe in controlled shooting?"
Really?!
You don't have a clue how to make a controlled shot.
In fact, you've adduced zero *proof* whatsoever that such a thing as a "controlled shot" really exists.
So are YOU more of an expert than the Wiz, because you "believe in controlled shooting?"
That's like saying the only way to become an expert at raising rabbits is to believe in the Easter Bunny."What, me worry?"
Quote: AhighOnly in your myopic world are these things mutually exclusive. Maybe you could expand your thought capacities somehow.
We're all wrong and you're always right.
Boring..
Quote: AhighI never even once said 100% random.
This line of yours is the next closest way to say that: " "So far, it is absolutely a random toss. I just have gotten lucky to have a good rolls to seven ratio with my random toss."
Quote: AhighOnly in your myopic world are these things mutually exclusive. Maybe you could expand your thought capacities somehow.
Quote: EvenBobWe're all wrong and you're always right. Boring..
It seems clear that Ahigh was referring to just you.
In addition, you insinuate that he contradicts himself to the point of being insincere and not credible, but his points that you mention are not mutually exclusive.
Quote: tupp
In addition, you insinuate that he contradicts himself to the point of being insincere .
Do you actually read his posts? How can any other conclusion
be drawn. He contradicts himself at every turn. You act like
if you if you just dent the obvious, that changes the facts. It
doesn't.
Tupp: http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=sv&u=http://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupp&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dtupp%26hl%3Den%26client%3Dfirefox-a%26hs%3D1Ci%26rls%3Dorg.mozilla:en-US:official&sa=X&ei=1yViUbXZGs2LrQG4_4DgBA&ved=0CGwQ7gEwCA
Quote: SanchoPanzaThis line of yours is the next closest way to say that: " "So far, it is absolutely a random toss. I just have gotten lucky to have a good rolls to seven ratio with my random toss."
Alright. Still I didn't say it was 100% random. I mean I just went to the bathroom too. But that doesn't mean I didn't do anything else today.
And yeah, the toss is random! You can't deny that. Every toss is random. How random? Who knows, but it's random alright.
So many people on here say so many other things that are so obviously false, I'm telling you in this case, I've intentionally made a statement to be misleading and also to create some problems. But I get that so often, I guess I am just giving in to how you guys roll around here.
I'm tired of the Alans and EvenBobs saying so much junk. And yeah, I can say it how I want as long as it's true, and if it misleading? Who cares?
Mislead the idiots who want to believe what they want to believe no matter what I say? Honey Badger doesn't care!
The data and the evidence are what matters more.
Quote: AhighAlright. Still I didn't say it was 100% random. !
I picture you in a top hat and with a cane, trying
to madly dance your way out of what you said last
week. And next week you'll be doing the same
about what you said this week. By constantly
alluding that everybody here is an idiot except you,
in your mind its probably working.
It isn't.
Quote: EvenBobI picture you in a top hat and with a cane, trying
to madly dance your way out of what you said last
week. And next week you'll be doing the same
about what you said this week. By constantly
alluding that everybody here is an idiot except you,
in your mind its probably working.
It isn't.
I picture you .. well I can't complete this message because of the rules.
If it weren't for all the really valuable members on this board who make me so mad on this forum, and people would just appreciate what I do instead of insulting me and pretending that what I am doing doesn't mean anything at all and making fun of my efforts, I would never have said what I said up there.
If you want to talk about dancing, let's talk about how useless your posts are!!!
And it's not that I think you're an IDIOT. I never said that. What I said is that your posts are quite useless. At least to me. I can't think of ANYTHING that you have contributed successfully towards ANYTHING that I have done.
Really. Completely blank there.
For some contrast, consider what 7craps has done. And generally speaking even Alan Mendelson contributes ideas suggestions and so on.
But you? What have you contributed towards the discussions besides just mockery?
What?
Increment that post counter!!!
If you will I will drive up there on Tuesday to appear on your show.
dicesitter
Quote: AlanMendelsonAhigh, would you allow me to be on your show this Tuesday to DEBATE you LIVE. I will be asking you during the course of the LIVE DEBATE to show me your proof of a CONTROLLED or an INFLUENCED dice throw? Will you agree?
If you will I will drive up there on Tuesday to appear on your show.
I am going to ask that you put a camera and microphone at one end of your table, so both of us can appear on camera at the same time and both of us can speak into the same microphone, and we will debate the subject of dice influencing and dice control. I will ask you to show me your proof that you can control and/or influence the dice.
If you need to have a "challenge" I will make it simple.
We will simulate a "hand" in which we will both start with a come out throw and see who has the most throws and wins the most money before a 7-out. We will simulate the bets -- you bet anyway you choose and I will also. You will throw your way. And when it is my turn to throw dice for my turn, I will put the two dice into a paper cup and throw from the cup.
While this "paper cup" test will not be a deciding factor, I think it would help to add some entertainment value. As a TV producer, I know the value of entertainment.
Quote: AhighIf it weren't for all the really valuable members on this board who make me so mad on this forum, and people would just appreciate what I do instead of insulting me and pretending that what I am doing doesn't mean anything at all and making fun of my efforts, I would never have said what I said up there.
Egad.
Just sayin'.
Quote: AlanMendelsonreally? If its "random" how can it be "biased"?
yah.. lmgtfy. biased random ... mutually exclusive they are not.
Quote: AlanMendelsonreally? If its "random" how can it be "biased"?
Random means each roll is independent of the previous ones. It does not mean every number has the same chance of coming up on a single dice.
If a dice is biased so the 6 comes up more often, say 2 times in 7, and the rest 1 time in 7, we would have a biased dice. The output is still a random selection each time.
We cannot predict what will happen on the next through (independent), but we can see that over time the 6 side comes up more often. Random, yet biased.
I know people think random = every side has the same chance of being shown. But it'd be a mistake to fall into that trap.
Another example : 1 time in 10, I can throw a double 2,3,4 or 5 The other 9 times, the result is as you'd expect on an unbiased dice. You can't predict when I will through the double. It's random. However, the overall results will show a bias to doubles.
You then use the tool box of probability to show the trends and patterns.
After all, two dice roll a 7 more often than a 2. The total thrown is not equally spread (e.g. not a flat probability distribution function). It still is random.
Ahigh, do you accept?
Quote: AlanMendelsonOkay. I will let Ahigh decide what size paper cup I should throw the dice from. That should eliminate the bias. LOL
What's the LOL for?
No bias would be expected on your roll. AHigh claims a biased roll (or not, I have no idea). He can also claim 'it's all random' quite safely, and not inconsistent.
Quote:Ahigh, do you accept?
Quote: AlanMendelsonI'm going to guess it's because Ahigh has criticized the Wizard too much and the Wizard is letting Ahigh dig a deeper hole for himself.
I have criticized the Wizard about his suggestions for how to bet to get the lowest possible edge to his face. I used the phrase, "to be honest with you it rubs me the wrong way."
There is no rule against criticism, and the Wizard invites it!
I do not think the Wizard would have a single problem with what I said.
He does not subscribe to controlled shooting, so it's not a factor in a betting strategy from his perspective. This is a big reason I want to prove control, in fact. I want the Wizard's expertise on how to bet given proof that advantage shooting is possible.
The Mad Professor couldn't even agree with me that betting the place bet on the 5 and 9 incurs more than a 1% edge and makes your hurdle twice as high as another bet. Why do that?!?!?! I like bets under 0.5% edge per roll. Each roll is a bet to me!
The passline advantage from my theoretically controlled shot given by the 3198 rolls I have recorded is entirely from the second phase. I have a negative advantage from my shot on the comeout roll or from the first roll of a come bet. I have to make up for this negative edge later by making more of those points. It just makes it harder to win using a biased outcome when you are betting for opposing things. One bet wins on the seven and one bet loses on the seven.
If you want to shoot the same way with the same set every throw and you have a player advantage, the comeout roll is a problem. So is mixing a come bet with bets that want box numbers! You're betting against yourself!
If you betting no odds or single odds, you're betting against yourself with a come bet and that makes it harder to win because if you hit a box number for a win on an odds bet, you lose advantage on the come bet when it travels. Edge or no edge, it's harder to win when you bet against yourself.
I don't want to, nor do I think anyone is interested to watch, an argument about what definitions are necessary to demonstrate a distribution of outcomes sufficiently unlikely to imply that controlled shooting is possible.
If you come and perform your best shot on the show, you might even learn something. If I do find out I have a controlled shot, the reality is that I have been losing at casinos while I have a controlled shot from a variety of other mistakes. Knowing what you got is half the battle.
I don't bet as big as you do Alan, so my shot in the casino and knowledge of it isn't that big of a deal.
But let's not argue if you come by, just fill in the slot for the invitation that has been extended to anyone who wants to come and give it a whirl.
edited to add: Some researcher you turned out to be. You wouldn't even compare your "controlled throw" to a throw with dice coming out of a cup.
Quote: AlanMendelsonYour answer is "no."
Thanks for telling me what my answer is. I have invited anyone to come and demonstrate an attempt at controlled shooting.
So you're invited, and it's you have has the answer of no.
Because you don't have a shot you are willing to demonstrate, I assume.
But you know what, you're right. I've said it before, and I don't think it would work anyway. So we will go with that.
No thanks, Alan. I doubt you really would follow through on coming anyway. You would just come up with an excuse for why you couldn't show up like you have in the past.
Let's just stick with the no and not have me led to believe you might be able to make me a priority for once.
Regarding past attempts, I cancelled once, and you declined for various reasons twice.
Priority? Who the hell do you think you are that you are a priority? You are full of yourself. And I don't care if I get suspended or nuked for ever. You can't take criticism. You are here only to establish yourself as the King of Craps. You do not have a controlled throw. You are an admitted loser at craps. You are an Emperor who wears no clothes.
Casinos as a hole have no clue if DI is possible or not. They have only the same information as we do. I have a feeling they may be on the better safe then sorry side. When so called DI/DC people get tossed out of casinos it means absolutely nothing. It may just be that someone thinks a player is attempting to cheat. or some idiot pit boss that has no clue about anything. Maybe he just dose not like the game being slowed down by some serious looking, low tipping shooter who is a big wet blanket on the party. BTW dealers and pit bosses are usually the worst most superstitious poker players, gamblers around they believe all kinds of crazy stuff. Possibly because they see so many plays and only remember players lucky streaks.Quote: tuppThe casinos think that dice influencing is possible.
Or maybe not. Blackjack still invites people to play and count, but will back you off if successful at counting (and you get caught). Likewise, with craps, if influence comes true (and I think we will find out via Ahigh or another DI's actually statistical experiments), you'll see casinos react by more back offs of setters who win. Casinos allow people to set the dice because their data set (the casinos likely have very large data sets) show that for 95% of people who think the way they throw and set the dice has an effect on their outcome, it does not. They want you to think you have influence when you don't because the ability to influence the dice is an incentive for many craps players to play (and lose), just like wanna-be card counters in blackjack are allowed to try yet fail anyway.
As always, Ahigh's experiments do have merit. The data set is out there for anyone to analyze.
.... they know it has no effect on the outcome of the roll.Quote: boymimboCasinos allow people to set the dice because
(It was just time for a reality check)
These threads are analagous to bigfoot hunters arguing over what tracking technique is best to find one......
This forum has multiple low and high level people involved in game protection, and NONE of them are afraid of a legal craps toss.
It has some of the brightest independent minds (Wiz, eg..) who is willing to bet ANY of these DI's that they cannot do it.
We have Ahigh who kindly showed slo-mo examples of attempted controlled throws, with the best word to describe the results as 'chaos'.
We have masked men who, when taking time off from 'dice controlling', make money playing roulette using 'money management and stop loss' techniques.
And we have the true money making DI's..... the ones who find sheep willing to pay them how to roll..... Or sell books......
Quote: SOOPOO.... they know it has no effect on the outcome of the roll.
(It was just time for a reality check)
These threads are analagous to bigfoot hunters arguing over what tracking technique is best to find one......
This forum has multiple low and high level people involved in game protection, and NONE of them are afraid of a legal craps toss.
It has some of the brightest independent minds (Wiz, eg..) who is willing to bet ANY of these DI's that they cannot do it.
We have Ahigh who kindly showed slo-mo examples of attempted controlled throws, with the best word to describe the results as 'chaos'.
We have masked men who, when taking time off from 'dice controlling', make money playing roulette using 'money management and stop loss' techniques.
And we have the true money making DI's..... the ones who find sheep willing to pay them how to roll..... Or sell books......
33 Pages and this is by far the best post.
and you can set up and after each shot i will throw you a fish. When you are done you can run
along and I...Ahigh will try to explain what you did, and why what you did was really not
dice control by "my" definitions.
This is worse than the soap my mother used to watch 50 years ago... "as the world turns"
i remember that becuse the world must have turned very slow because one could miss
6 months and they were still on the same conversation.
Dicesitter
Quote: AlanMendelsonAhigh the night I invited you to dinner at Caesars, you had the gaul to decline my invitation, but you showed up at the table where I was shooting with pen and notepad to record my throws. You spied on me, and didnt have the courtesy to introduce yourself. You gave the excuse that you didn't know who I was but your friend pointed me out to you. You were at the table alone. You were the only one at the table with a notepad taking notes. Am I to think that one of your Vegas friends recognized me from Los Angeles TV? Well that is very flattering.
Regarding past attempts, I cancelled once, and you declined for various reasons twice.
Priority? Who the hell do you think you are that you are a priority? You are full of yourself. And I don't care if I get suspended or nuked for ever. You can't take criticism. You are here only to establish yourself as the King of Craps. You do not have a controlled throw. You are an admitted loser at craps. You are an Emperor who wears no clothes.
In general, here, you don't have your facts straight. I wasn't writing anything down. It was Saturday, not Friday. I wasn't at the table by myself. In fact I wasn't at that table at all. But I assure you that I neither was at the table by myself nor was I writing anything down. You apparently got me confused with somebody else.
You're just wrong. Again. And yes, my friend recognized you, not me.
I came to this casino to meet this friend and two of his friends. It had nothing to do with you.
Anyway... This is getting tiresome.
Quote: Ahigh
Anyway... This is getting tiresome.
I've never seen so many wrong people on one forum.
I'm always wrong, Alan is always wrong, anybody who
disagrees with or disputes anything you say is always
wrong. Its an amazing thing to behold, and gets more
amazing with each passing day.
Quote: EvenBobI've never seen so many wrong people on one forum.
I'm always wrong, Alan is always wrong, anybody who
disagrees with or disputes anything you say is always
wrong. Its an amazing thing to behold, and gets more
amazing with each passing day.
I know! So many people assert things that are not true here. In this little gem of yours, "anybody who disagrees with or disputes anything you say is always wrong" is a wrong statement.
Lead by example!
Quote: AhighIn this little gem of yours, "anybody who disagrees with or disputes anything you say is always wrong" is a wrong statement.!
Its an exaggeratioin to prove a point, but its damn
close. I've never seen anybody with the inability to
take any kind of criticism quite like you. Its like you
grew up in a bubble where all you heard was praise
on how great you were.
Quote: AhighSo emotional, Alan. But you're wrong... I personally think that you are just getting emotional because you wish that your results were so lucky as mine.When I saw you shoot at Caesars, you looked lucky for a minute, and then it looked like you were unlucky.
So, you DO admit that you saw Alan shoot at Caesars?!
But you were at a different table?
Quote: SOOPOO
This forum has multiple low and high level people involved in game protection, and NONE of them are afraid of a legal craps toss.
...
Very true, and its not like they're secretly afraid and
are hiding it. When they back a shooter off its not
because they think he has a skills, its because he's
on a tear, which can happen to anybody. But of course
every DI thinks its because his 'skills' have been spotted.
Sure they have..
Quote: MrVSo, you DO admit that you saw Alan shoot at Caesars?!
But you were at a different table?
I honestly don't know why it matters, but yeah I saw him after my friend said, and I quote, "isn't that you're buddy Alan Mendelson over there?" I said, "I'm not sure, but it looks like him."
I then said, and I quote, "you wanna go talk to him?" And my friend said, "no I don't want to talk to Alan." Then my friend chuckled. I'm guessing from this that my friend didn't think it would be cool to meet Alan. I thought it would be neat.
I was walking all around the casino while Alan was shooting, but I was not writing down rolls and standing at a table by myself while Alan was shooting as Alan accuses me of doing.
I was not shooting at all while Alan was there, so I wasn't shooting at a different table nor making any bets or shooting at all. The next time I came by to see, he was gone. I only shot about two shots that afternoon and Alan was nowhere to be seen. I only made about two or three bets. I didn't come there to play even, I came there to meet my friends, one of which was staying at Caesar's and was in town for Nascar.
But as far as SPYING, it sure seems queer that the person who is accusing me of spying is causing all of this personal information about what *I* was doing to come out in response. Who really freaking cares? Why can't I just say, "nope you're wrong" and get a goddamn apology for being wrongly accused?
I'll tell ya why: because that's not the type of person that Alan is. Otherwise we wouldn't be having this trite and boring conversation for me to defend myself against allegations that are false about me "spying" on Alan.
Really!!!
So there ya go!
My friend might be able to fill in more details, but he does not post on this forum at all. You might find him on some of the DI websites though, and if you went in there and asked around, you might be able to learn who it was. Of course I think this whole conversation is stupid. It probably isn't who you are thinking it was though. There's more than one DI who doesn't want people from this forum to know what they look like.
Quote: AhighI was walking all around the casino while Alan was shooting, but I was not writing down rolls and standing at a table by myself while Alan was shooting as Alan accuses me of doing.
Quote: Beethoven9thI hate getting involved in this, but I'm curious now. Since I'm pretty sure that Alan knows exactly what you look like from your show, what reason would he have to lie about seeing you?? I don't get it.
That's a goddamn good question!!! How the hell would I know? Maybe he intends to smear me. Slander? I have no clue! And I ABSOLUTELY am offended by the untrue accusations.
Ahigh.
Dicesitter
Quote:except Ahigh.
Quote: boymimboCasinos allow people to set the dice because
Quote: SOOPOO.... they know it has no effect on the outcome of the roll.
That is not true.
One is not allowed to set the dice at crapshooter tables and mini-tubs -- even with the requirement that the shooter must hit the back wall. The reason is because of the short shooting distance.
Likewise, on a full table with a bump, players positioned between the normal stickman position and the corner are required to move farther away from the bump when shooting, to the corner (or past it).
Casinos believe that dice influence is possible from shorter shooting distances than those of a full table.
Quote: SOOPOO(It was just time for a reality check)
The reality is that casinos believe that dice influencing is possible from "short" distances.
Now, if one acknowledges that DI is possible from a shorter distance, then that opens an infinite world of possibilities. What if one stands 6 inches further away? ... what abut 8 inches further? ... what about 1 foot further? etc.
Quote: SOOPOOThese threads are analagous to bigfoot hunters arguing over what tracking technique is best to find one......
Actually, these threads are more analogous to a few earnest kids trying to discuss an innocent topic while two or three bullies and their followers gang-up on the kids and continually harass and attack them.
Quote: SOOPOOThis forum has multiple low and high level people involved in game protection, and NONE of them are afraid of a legal craps toss.
Try to convince them to let you set the dice at their crapshooter tables and mini-tubs. Try to convince them to let you shoot from the stickman position on a full table with a bump.
Quote: SOOPOOIt has some of the brightest independent minds (Wiz, eg..) who is willing to bet ANY of these DI's that they cannot do it.
There have been seven trials and the shooters are still ahead.
I am willing to bet again.
Quote: SOOPOOWe have Ahigh who kindly showed slo-mo examples of attempted controlled throws, with the best word to describe the results as 'chaos'.
Well, there is a lot that can be discussed about those examples.
When he mentioned about his skill at 3-point shots, I was even more surprised that SOOPOO is so closed minded on the subject.
Quote: tuppI am willing to bet again.
As one of the few that was willing to put his money where his mouth is.... I applaud you!
Whenever I next make it to Vegas I would love for you to find someone willing to take a challenge again.
Both you and I know that the previous challenge proved or disproved nothing.
By the way, I don't think I've seen a 'mini tub'. Next time in vegas I'll need to find one to see it.
All my conclusions about the impossibility of dice control come from me seeing throws on a regular table.
Quote: SOOPOO... on a regular table.
Just to be clear, by regular you mean 10 foot long or longer. That's a pretty broad term that I'm unsure what you mean by.
Quote: SOOPOOWhenever I next make it to Vegas I would love for you to find someone willing to take a challenge again.
I would like that, too. It would also require finding a generous host, such as Ahigh.
Quote: SOOPOOBoth you and I know that the previous challenge proved or disproved nothing.
Yes. Not by itself, but with enough trials and recorded rolls, the cumulative results might glean something useful.
Quote: SOOPOOBy the way, I don't think I've seen a 'mini tub'. Next time in vegas I'll need to find one to see it.
A few months ago, I saw the mini-tub at the Tropicana (thanks to superrick's info).
As far as I know, the bump is still used at Club Fortune on weekdays until 4pm. I have a video of it, and I will post it, as soon as I get the chance.
The Fiesta Rancho had a crapshooters table up until about a year and a half ago. Here's a video that shows a glimpse of it. By the way, I think that Station Casinos has discontinued the $1 Buds that the marketing guy mentions.
