Myths About Controlled Shooters, Shooting and the Captain

Quote: odiousgambit

Hasn't he done that?

I dare any of them to show up wearing a mask!

I must be mistaken but I thought all of the invitations were for some sort of challenge in a specific contest.

What I am suggesting is that this invitation be issued:

"Come here and play on the live TV show. Tell us in advance what you are going to do over your set number of rolls. And let us see if you actually accomplish what you say you are going to do."

In other words, a test of their own claims whether it be a SRR test or a hard way test, or a test to hit two dimes on the felt or whatever.

Let the word get out that is you have a claim for being able to influence or control the dice you have to prove it on the Ahigh show. I'd watch for that!

Sigh. Pots, meet kettles. Kettles, meet pots.

Please step back and take a breather for a moment. This kind of rhetoric should be saved for gunshow loophole rants!

But seriously, let's back off of the personal insults, take a deep breath, and enjoy a baseball game.

The fact of the matter is that there are some serious believers in dice control, serious detractors of dice control, and Ahigh, who is squarely in the middle camp and makes claims each way which kind of hurts his credibility (I am looking forward to the long rant of defense). He has become the lightning rod for all things dice control.

I've been an active craps player for 15 years, and in 15 years I've seen it all. Ahigh with all respect to you, I've been at a table at Caesars where a random roller threw 18 yos in a row. James was the stickman. Twice he inspected the dice out of an obligation to the casino. And the yos continued.

About a month ago, I watched a random shooter go on a streak and a high roller collected $3.1-million dollars off the roll. I think that beats the claim about causing a table to dump sixty thousand.

A true craps virgin, a young gal who never threw dice before, at Caesars about two months ago had a come out point of 8. Next roll: 8. New come out: 8. Next roll: 8. New come out: 8. Next roll: 8. New come out: 8. Next roll: 8. Yes, four times in a row.

At Caesars about a year ago a random shooter hit the hard ten more than eight times without a soft in between, and there was a player at the table who started with $25 on the first hard ten and parlayed up to the table limit. I'm not sure what his profit was that session but I heard it was more than sixty thousand dollars.

My point is... this stuff happens all the time. And it means nothing. In each and every case it was a random shooter getting lucky.

We have to separate random from "influenced" and "controlled."

How do you guys wish to propose we find out the difference between "random results" and "influenced results"??

Quote: boymimbo

Ahigh, who is squarely in the middle camp and makes claims each way which kind of hurts his credibility (I am looking forward to the long rant of defense). He has become the lightning rod for all things dice control.

The sum of his many claims, including some quite extremely strong ones, means that he has clearly sought to be that lightning rod. A fact that he clearly enjoys--up until the point of being seriously challenged.

the thing that sucks with all of this is that the house edge is so small in this game people are given a false hope when they get luckier than average and win. (pretty sure this is what house wants, because long run they will win)

I get correlation Ahigh, i understand this perfectly i have read up on and seen the "theory" behind it. Now do i really believe someone can consistently do it? Im not really sure, i would like to, but i have my doubts. I do think a robot could do it, but not a human.

Give me and idea of how many times the dice spin/bobble/twirl after hitting the table and wall?

I get if you hold a dice set pair up and throw it, if they both do the exact same bounce twirl bing bang then land, in theory they should be on the same number. but seriously how often can this be achieved? and i mean achieved on pure skill of the throw alone. Not luck, SKILL

I really wish this game had a higher house advantage and this argument would never exist.

We all know the truth and I hope all you DC/DI keep good records of all your casino visits. I mean you are really only lying to yourselves. I have told this to many drug/alcohol addicts as well. -"you are reallly only lying to yourself man"

Like i have said before, i just wish we could test it.

Please let me know if one ever gets done. i would love to see it or read about it.

Also if the house holds a 1% edge (lets just say to keep math simple) what percentage of time would a DI/DC have to throw perfect skill shots to overcome that edge? we all know 83.333% of time he is just luckboxing away anyway. So what percent? 84.3333%?
wiz maybe you can help here. (maybe % and shots out of 100)

Quote: nezbit

Also if the house holds a 1% edge (lets just say to keep math simple) what percentage of time would a DI/DC have to throw perfect skill shots to overcome that edge? we all know 83.333% of time he is just luckboxing away anyway. So what percent? 84.3333%?

Craps is a business where the industry advertises 10X, 25X, 100X odds, lowering the house advantage incrementally by the tenths of a thousandth of 1 percent. As if that would really matter for the 99+ percent of the players whole will never roll or even bet tens of thousands of times.

Quote: SanchoPanza

Craps is a business where the industry advertises 10X, 25X, 100X odds, lowering the house advantage incrementally by the tenths of a thousandth of 1 percent. As if that would really matter for the 99+ percent of the players whole will never roll or even bet tens of thousands of times.

What is most interesting is that the average player bets 2X odds.

Quote: nezbit

I really wish this game had a higher house advantage and this argument would never exist.

There are a few other forum members who share the same wish. You can usually recognize such members by the way that they quickly pounce on an innocent, new poster and declare that a betting idea is useless because it's "a negative expectation game."

Quote: nezbit

We all know the truth and I hope all you DC/DI keep good records of all your casino visits. I mean you are really only lying to yourselves.

Sounds like you've already made up your mind on the subject.

Quote: nezbit

I have told this to many drug/alcohol addicts as well. -"you are reallly only lying to yourself man"

No doubt, that must have been a revelation to them.

Quote: nezbit

Like i have said before, i just wish we could test it. Please let me know if one ever gets done. i would love to see it or read about it.

As someone mentioned in an earlier post, you are coming in "a little late in the game."

There have been seven documented dice trials that were sanctioned by both sides of the issue. Four favored the shooters, two favored the naysayers, and one was a push.

In addition, a couple of forum members have been posting their rolls. One of these members meticulously documents and records the results.

Quote: nezbit

Also if the house holds a 1% edge (lets just say to keep math simple) what percentage of time would a DI/DC have to throw perfect skill shots to overcome that edge? we all know 83.333% of time he is just luckboxing away anyway. So what percent? 84.3333%?

This question is yet another topic that has been discussed before (although I don't think anyone has answered it).

The question is actually: what is the minimum frequency of non-loss rolls that the shooter must ensure, to overcome the house edge? Of course, the house edge depends on the particular bet. Generally, the house edge that is mentioned is the 0.184% edge on a come bet with 10x odds.

To overcome such low house edge, I have guessed the shooter could easily do so by ensuring at least one non-loss roll in every 50 rolls. However, I don't think anybody has done the math on this question.

Quote: nezbit

Also if the house holds a 1% edge (lets just say to keep math simple) what percentage of time would a DI/DC have to throw perfect skill shots to overcome that edge? we all know 83.333% of time he is just luckboxing away anyway. So what percent? 84.3333%?
wiz maybe you can help here. (maybe % and shots out of 100)

Not much. That's the thing. A SRR of 6.46 will even out the house edge if all numbers remain equal and you don't put odds behind your pass. 6.46 is about one seven less in each 84 rolls (instead of throwing 14 sevens in 84 rolls, you throw 13). And of course you'll do better if you don't set the dice on your come out roll but try your best SRR roll after come out. At that point an SRR of 6.25 is enough to give you an advantage (one seven less in 150 rolls).

Of course, if you are on such an endeavor, it is likely that you would track all of your distributions to figure out what your best rolls are, so SRR is just one measure.

However, it's easy to see if you have the edge or not. Just keep throwing the dice. Your level of confidence is your own. If you have a 90% confidence and you are really trying and minimize the randomizing effect of the table, maybe that level of confidence is good enough. But even at that point, you still ahve to deal with different table conditions, chips in the way, and other distractions in real life craps.

However, I would content that to prove to others that you *have* dice control, you have to show that your dice differs from random and I think your p-value needs to be at least 99%. More importantly, that p-value should continue to diverge from normal with the more rolls that you throw.

And isn't that a worthwhile endeavor, to prove to the gambling world that dice control is indeed possible? I'm sure UNLV would reward you the honorary Thorpe award. I'm sure the Wizard could at least make up an award composed of a few books and sweatshirts.

I have explained to the Wizard, and hopefully others understand my desire, that I wish to be known as the person who established a proof that dice control was possible with a legal throw.

It would be a real honor to be recognized by UNLV in all seriousness. That would mean a lot. I know nothing about any awards for such things, but it might also make friends, family, and employer feel better about being so tolerant of my activities in being recognized for my efforts with an award. IE: I play a lot(!!!!)

Where I have been playing lately, I have been getting respect from the dealers for my ability to turn $100 into $1000 which I have done twice at two casinos in the last two days.

It takes a lot of time, and in both cases, I spent several hours to do this explaining that I do it for fun, not for the money.

But like building up ships on asteroids, it's not so much about playing the game the way normal people play it. You play it a special way to exploit something specific. They are often confused by the play strategies that I use. But when the rail slowly grinds, they often want to know what I'm doing.

I don't want to say much more than that at this point, but hopefully I will have more to say in the future about the whole thing.

I am up for the year, but I am still a lifetime loser at craps.

I made an effort to win enough yesterday to be a lifetime winner, but I failed and only broke even for the day instead of having a guaranteed win and leaving.

I do want to thank the casinos who have been so tolerant of my marathon playing sessions lately. I doubt they are reading this forum, but if you are reading, thanks, guys. I do appreciate all the polite dealers who have been so nice to me recently.

Quote: Ahigh

I wish to be known as the person who established a proof that dice control was possible with a legal throw.

How long do you think the throw will remain legal once you demonstrate it can change the odds? The dice tables added the pyramids to counter the greek shot and the blanket roll, and some have added a speed bump to counter the slide. How are you going to demonstrate a controlled shot and preserve its viability at the same time?

Quote: MathExtremist

How long do you think the throw will remain legal once you demonstrate it can change the odds? The dice tables added the pyramids to counter the greek shot and the blanket roll, and some have added a speed bump to counter the slide. How are you going to demonstrate a controlled shot and preserve its viability at the same time?

Ahigh congratulations on your recent wins.

Math Extremist, is it a controlled shot?

Quote: Ahigh

I have explained to the Wizard, and hopefully others understand my desire, that I wish to be known as the person who established a proof that dice control was possible with a legal throw.

Quote: Ahigh

I have explained to the Wizard, and hopefully others understand my desire, that I wish to be known as the person who established a proof that dice control was possible with a legal throw.

It would be a real honor to be recognized by UNLV in all seriousness. That would mean a lot.

Thank you for telling us this. Each time you have a show, I always ask the question "what is your goal for the show?" You've never answered. Now I know: you want to show us a legal throw with controlled dice. Okay, this is a good project.

Ahigh, I think your first steps have nothing to do with a table, throwing dice, cameras or anything else. I think your first steps are about establishing definitions.

Ahigh, your first step should be to define what is dice control? Simply, tell us what it is. No shots, no camera, no dice and no table required. This is just so we all know what you're talking about. In the loosest definition, dice control is throwing two dice to hit the back wall. Of course you mean to do something more than that. So, set your goals. Make your definition.

I think it's safe to say we all know what a legal throw is. Basically, you can't slide the dice. The dice must fly in the air, hit the table surface and bounce and hit the back wall. Whether or not the dice have to bounce off the back wall is a subject of dispute.

Once we know your definition of dice control, and we accept what is a legal throw, please describe to us what you envision this throw of the dice with "dice control" within a legal throw will look like.

To be honest, only until we know what you envision dice control to be in the framework of a legal throw should you attempt to demonstrate it.

If for example you would like to use dice and model them -- hold them with your hands -- and put that video online to help illustrate your goal, that could be very helpful.

Before you dismiss this as a silly request consider that there are many ways to have a coin flip:
1. throw in the air
2. flick it with your thunb
3. bounce it on a table
4. place it flat on your hand and flip your hand over
5. place it flat on your hand and quickly push your hand up as if you are flipping a pancake

thanks.

Quote: AxelWolf

Frank or anyone who may know. I really Don't know who is teaching or part of the current Dice crews and classes. You keep mentioning Stanford Wong's name. My question is: 1) is Wong a part of any dice teaching exploits? 2) If not is he out there playing craps ,employing craps players or taking action on DI/DC ?

............. ?????

To be more specific, not only dice control, but advantage play craps as a result of being able to affect the way the dice resolve legally on the table given a sufficiently large number of events for your edge to manifest.

More succinctly, I want to demonstrate that it is possible for a shooter (any shooter) has this ability with a legal shot.

Before control can be asserted, throws must be analyzed. My theory has been that if anything non-random is in the throw, with enough samples it will show up.

I started recording samples after noticing as my control improved, I was rolling far too many boxcars. This was in July 2012. I started writing the software and recording throws as a result of seeing too many boxcars.

When I saw that, I started writing the software and recording data. Within a few weeks, I had my software telling me that I should use a 4242 set instead of a 6262 set. So I did that to improve the number of box numbers I hit and decrease the number of hi-lo numbers I hit.

If you go back and look at my data from all the way back, the data and the film and audio to go along with this goes all the way back to August that I am heavy on whatever I put on the top of my set.

My second heaviest easy outcome with the hard eight set is the ace-deuce.

My second heaviest hard outcome is the hard ten.

Most of my sets play off scooting what I want into the top of my set for a hardway or where the ace-deuce is on my set for an easy way (when possible anyway).

But none of this was based off anything but my own shot refined over a couple years followed by software to quantify the best possible set using betting strategies and just simulating it for every possible set.

So although I do want to prove things, right now, I am still trying to get the most consistent throw possible that is legal and that, in fact, does not look suspicious to anyone in the casino.

Occasionally coming up short with one die is about as suspicious as my throw begins to look.

There are a lot of things to have the computer solve that go beyond what I think other software is doing, and I haven't implemented everything that I know how to implement.

It's only been a few weeks that I have begun to use an advantage shot for the passline bet on the comeout with no other bets on the table. This has been a weak part of my play up until a few weeks ago.

But to Alan and anyone else who wants to tell me how to do the proof, I haven't started the proof yet. I am gathering data, and I think that gathering data and sharing it publicly is the best way to figure out how to go from here. Since nobody else has been able to give me more throws of their shot that is better than mine, I am going to just keep going with my shot.

If Frank Scoblete or DiceCoach or SuperRick or Mad Professor or Heavy or Dominator or DeadCat or any of the other shooters who are not afraid of revealing a performance in a live performance while everyone is watching is willing to spend a week here and do 400 rolls per night for 7 nights, that's what it would take basically to really nip this in the bud. 400 rolls would take about 3 hours. So that's about 21 hours in a weeks' time to get it done. If the shooting is sucking, it could be cut short. But if someone can maintain a 15.50% or lower ratio of sevens to rolls, I think it would make sense to keep at it 3 hours a night for a week to nail down another shot besides mine.

I know there are two people willing to do the 200 roll challenge, and there's a spot open on Tuesday. PM me if you want to show up this Tuesday. Otherwise it will be me again.

200 rolls per hour is about the most you can squeeze in there. With two people working together, 200 rolls can be done in less than an hour, but this is about as fast as you can go with one person.

I think it would be awesome, though, to do two hours of 400 to 800 rolls with a team of three people. I have been working with some friends to experiment with the fastest possible way to do as many controlled shots as possible in the fastest time. 3 seconds per roll is absolutely the limit. If you do this, you have a dedicated person setting the dice for you and you have effectively a human conveyor belt of dice coming at you and someone clearing dice from the felt every three seconds.

I really would like to do a turbo-mode show and I am still working out the details for how this would work. But for this to work, I am going to work out the details ahead of time and give instructions for how it will go and already have it worked out. This is because if there is a debate for how to do it, you can spend 30 minutes just debating how to do it, then the time you would save has been eaten up just jibber jabbering about it.

But I can tell you that for this to work effectively, you need at least three and possible four people in addition to people to work the ATEM television studio and people to work hand-held cameras to capture the action. So this type of show is going to be a 3 to 6 person show with ideally two good shooters running possibly at nearly the same time.

Ahigh are you only trying to prove its real? I wish your goal was just to come to a real conclusion.

Quote: AxelWolf

Ahigh are you only trying to prove its real? I wish your goal was just to come to a real concussion.

I had a concussion before. It was terrible! I was riding my bicycle in a cement creek, and I had a blowout going up the wall to do my jump and my bike started rolling backwards and I hit my head on the concrete.

I'm not going to come to another real concussion.

I can assure you of that.

I woke up in the hospital days later.

This is true, but I am not limiting what I am trying to do, just one of the tasks that has never been done that I wanted to have checked off.

At least to Shackleford's satisfaction to say, "well, Ahigh has finally come up with the hard evidence of video and roll data to demonstrate that it is unquestionably possible to perform AP craps play."

Concussion lol, hilarious Hightower. :)

On A more serious note I believe the evidence needed to convince most non believers including myself of AP craps is an ever expanding bankroll that stands the test of time.

No, I disagree with that remark. The betting doesn't matter. We can all bullshit about that.

It's actually the sampling and the results of the sampling that matter. If Ahigh can demonstrate that a certain starting point for dice (the set) leads to a bias beyond randomness (the result) then dice influence is real. The variable conditions of course is the human, but we all know that. If the human factor, the bouncing, and the pyramids still can lead to bias, then indeed we have something.

The problem (if any) with Ahigh's approach (in my opinion) is the talk that goes with it.

Ahigh,

Basically you're wanting to prove to every casino risk consultant and casino manager that dice control is possible. In order to remove all doubt, you're also video taping it, so that they can take the videos with them to the seminars?

Yes, that makes perfect sense.

Keyser: I know, right? It sounds like you're assuming that my #1 goal is to take a slice of the $300M to $400M per year that craps tables earn for the state of Nevada for myself.

You would be wrong if that were your assumption.

I will tell you another thing, too. If they just decided, "WOW! This craps game doesn't make money any more, let's just get rid of it because of Ahigh." I wouldn't care! I really wouldn't. But here's why: I don't think that's going to happen and if it did happen, I would be more than happy to be the reason why it happened because that would be worth more than me pulling down $1M every year from the game. Something even less likely than this happening, and certainly less valuable to me than this happening.

I could, HONESTLY, care less about what my findings cause to the casino surveillance crews, or whether all of a sudden craps players have to go on the same list as blackjack players. If all of that happens because of me and I become the most hated person in the world for existing craps players who have been enjoying AP craps play, none of these guys are my buddies any more than you or Shackleford, MathExtremist, or anyone else.

I am an independent guy and I couldn't care less what it means to anybody or even the game what my findings are. I am going to plod ahead no matter how it affects the overall industry or the existing AP craps players that are not even proven to exist currently.

And a big reason why I have this approach is because I don't think I am even a gnat on the butt on the elephant that is craps revenue for the state of Nevada, much less the world in terms of importance, and me and my research aren't going to NEGATIVELY affect the game one iota. In fact the OPPOSITE is MUCH more possible. Craps players that generate that revenue for the casinos couldn't care two shits about what I'm doing. They are superstitious, and the repeat junk they hear whether it's true or not, and they bet craps the way that they are going to bet it, and if ANYBODY can win and is known to win, they will just play more trying to be the next lucky schmuck to win too. Most of them don't even have a freaking computer even in this year of 2013.

They old white dudes on Social Security and retirement income, and rich gangsta dudes that hang out at the Wynn, and finger-snapping ghetto dudes from Atlantic City that sell weed and buy in for $2,000 worth of 420 smellin' 20's. Not dudes like dudes on this forum that talk about AP VP and BJ.

And that's how it is, how it will be, and there ya go. Ahigh ain't changing that.

Quote:

MrV

Laudable, yet arguably somewhat misguided.

Perhaps you could use some of your money to hire an "expert" to devise a truly "scientific" test.

You know a bit about the game of craps, but little about the scientific method.

This is a task for a pro, not well-meaning amateurs.

MrV who do you suggest? How about one of our famous writers on the game of craps.
Do you think for one moment that they would step in front of a video camera that they couldn’t edit the out come?

Should it be one of the guys that sell their school and all the other crap they can to players that they think they can suck their money out of them?

Here is a list of the so-called experts you pick one that you think you can get to step up to the plate without editing anything.

Any of GTC instructors

How about the worlds grestest shooter the “Dominator” that is how they portrayed him in Breaking Vegas: "Dice Dominator"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bhno_F9vZcw

Then you Heavy and anybody from his school, that is in town this month. Do you think that he would do it?

Or you could get “The Madprofessor” That nobody has ever seen or met anywhere, although I must admit that he is one hell of a fiction writer, because he has his followers believing what he writes no matter how out outlandish his stories are.

Now here is the problem with getting anybody to prove that there are any DI's in this world, These same guys that I've named may have been the down fall of craps as we used to know it. They needed to sell books, their forums, their schools and anything else they could sell. They were great promoters of what they were selling and the casinos took noticed. The casinos changed the tables, to the point of some times being ridiculous, they can no longer keep the dice on some tables.

There was no need for that, it was only a move to counter what they saw as a threat to their bottom line. None of these guys excluding the Madprofessor can go into a casino and do what they claim to do every time they hit the tables. The job of any good writer is to sell books, do you think for one moment that would happen, if these guys were telling it like it really is? What would happen if they were writing that there were nothing but losers in a casino?

FS needed hype to sell his classes and books,, he got that in the “Dominator” and the “Captain”! Watch the stupid video above, no DI would go into a casino and claim to be the worlds greatest shooter. Here you have a scripted movie that was edited so much it had to be pathetic. If they used live action shots they never would have got done with their movie. I excluded the Madprofessor for one very simple reason and that is because nobody has ever seen him in a real casino. Here you have a guy that claims to started playing craps in the late 70's and nobody has ever ran into him on the tables! So he is out of the picture!

Ahigh by any chance have you noticed around town that the number of craps tables are going down?
For the casinos it's the most expensive game for them to run. Casinos are in business to make money. They are not there so you can have fun, if it wasn't for the suckers that play table games there would be none, they much rather have a casino with nothing but slot machine in it.

So here is my question for you, what if you do prove that someone can beat the game with their shooting, that the few times you had them in front of a live camera and they did what others have claimed for all these years, what do you think would happened to the tables?

Your own shot that you have been working on for so long, most likely wouldn't work any more, because the casinos are going to look at your videos and change where you are landing your dice, that's if they just don't take out the tables!

Now others that know me, call me a DI, but I'm the first to tell anybody that I can't walk into a casino and win every time I pick up the dice, also that I know some of the best shooters in this country, they can't do it either! The difference between a DI and a random roller is others look differently at the so-called DI, because they are setting the dice, taking their time when they are shooting, and when they get on a roll everybody makes a big deal out of it.

If you had a random roller that just had a fifty roll in one casino and he or her moved on to the next casino and did the same thing, nobody at this new casino would think any thing of it, after all they are just a so-called random roller that is getting lucky. Move them on to the next casino and do the same thing and you would have the same reaction from everybody around the table.

This could happen for days, even months or years and nobody would think anything about what is happening at the different casinos. In everybody eyes this shooter would be just getting lucky, all because of the hype that goes with someone that sets the dice and is called a DI by others.

You might get the award for being the one that shut down all the craps tables around the country, then all the fun you are having would go away, just like “PAC-MAN” did in the 80's. Even if you had this game at your house nobody would be beating down your door to play it, nor would they be beating down your door to play craps! We could put some of the tables in a few of the museums around the country and the rest could go into the land fills. Craps would be dead as we know it, and the casinos would love it!

All these fiction writers would have no one to sell their books to, they would have to go out a buy a PopCorn Craps Machine and see if they could figure out how to sell the players that play those stupid things a class on how to become the best button pushers there is! You could start testing a way that they say will beat those machines! The great “Madprofessor” has already written that there are AP “PopCorn” craps players traveling around the country playing these machines, way to funny if you ask me!

Then you might have to hide behind a curtain, just like my good buddy “The Madprofessor” does only for a different reason, everybody that loves to play craps might have a problem if they ran into you at a casino!

Quote: superrick

MrV who do you suggest?

Start close at home; begin the inquiry at the UNLV Dept. of Mathematics:

Dr. Derrick DuBose

Department Chair
(702) 895-3567
fax: (702) 895-4343 derrick.dubose@unlv.edu

Dr. Malwane Ananda

Associate Chair
(702) 895-0395
fax: (702) 895-4343 malwane.ananda@unlv.edu

Don't pretend that there is not already awareness of what is going on with this forum from every single well-known claimed AP craps player in the world. The three cases in my mind are:

1) Player doesn't want to be known
2) Player doesn't want to be known to be fallible
3) Player doesn't want to spend necessary time to put in enough events to demonstrate their edge over thousands of rolls

I am working on reducing the necessary time to demonstrate thousands of rolls. I am doing everything I can to try to eliminate the reasons a great shooter wouldn't want to appear on film, though. But still, all I hear are crickets when it comes to people willing to step up to the plate on this one.

I have more ideas that I will talk about later to put monetary incentives on the goal to demonstrate control, though.

The theoretical minimum amount of time is 3 seconds per roll. 3000 seconds is still an hour though, and some of these guys don't even have an hour to grab dice off a conveyor belt and chunk them non-stop to prove what they got. Plus at that theoretical maximum throwing rate, you need at least two, and ideally five additional people to man all the gear and equipment to document it all.

But if the best damn rapid shooter in the world can give up an hour, 3000 shots is THEORETICALLY possible in one hour.

So in THEORY at least, any really great shooter could give more concrete proof than I have today in LESS than an hour.

Everything Ahigh is trying to accomplish has already been presented and disputed. He's coming late to the show. On the one side are the can's, on the other side are the cannot's and the math guys have already presented the math.

If Ahigh wants to prove anything he will have to find a real "dice controller."

Problem: Will a real dice controller (if there is someone who can) willingly come on the Ahigh show? I will give a snowball better odds of lasting on hour on Las Vegas Boulevard at the uncovered intersection of Flamingo in August than I would for a true dice controller showing up on his program.

Ahigh you have a noble project. But even if you did accomplish this, what is the purpose? To land a job as a casino floorman or pit boss? To get a job in surveillance? To sell your peanut butter balance to the casinos?

Frankly, there are casinos that are worried about dice influencers and controllers and there are casinos that are now worried... or even concerned.

I've been backed off, barred, or shown the door at NYNY, Bellagio, MGM but never had a problem at any of the Harrah's/Caesars properties, nor did I have a problem at Red Rock or Mandalay Bay or even Gold Strike.

You're not going to prove anything.

Why don't you get a crew together, with a portable craps table, and rent yourself out for craps parties and do videos of all the players at the craps parties. With that you stand a chance of making some money.

You did mention that some folks are getting irritated about your extensive play. You even mentioned your employer. Don't kill the goose, buddy. Jobs and family come first.

Quote: Ahigh

The theoretical minimum amount of time is 3 seconds per roll. 3000 seconds is still an hour though, and some of these guys don't even have an hour to grab dice off a conveyor belt and chunk them non-stop to prove what they got. Plus at that theoretical maximum throwing rate, you need at least two, and ideally five additional people to man all the gear and equipment to document it all.

I doubt it's quite that quick, but I can see 6-8 seconds per roll being achievable if (a) there were no chips on the table and (b) the stick just grabbed the dice and sent them immediately without centering them.

In fact, I've wondered if you could get a casino to "rent" a table to a single shooter by agreeing beforehand that you'll put a line bet (pass or come) on every roll with full odds, and then just rolling many times in succession (ending with a 7) and resolving the bets after the fact. You might get in 600 rolls/hour that way, and at $25/bet that's about $212 theo/hour. The average dice table in NV made $84/hour last month so this is a decent improvement. Do you think any of the casinos you frequent would let you do this, perhaps mid-day during a slow period? You'd only need two dealers (one stick, one roll recorder) and then the shift manager could resolve the bets afterwards. It would be an interesting boundary test in a real-world casino with no chips or hands in the way.

Ahigh,

I throw 1000 rolls a day... 3 of the days I use a standard casino table just like yours... If you would like to use my data as a second subject , I would gladly send it. If you could tell me what format you need it in, it would not be a problem...

My position on the subject is that it is random, but I am a fan of science and research...

Quote: TheWolf713

My position on the subject is that it is random, but I am a fan of science and research...

Than you and Ahigh and the casino are in 100%
agreement that its pure random. What the heck
is all the discussion about.

Quote: EvenBob

Than you and Ahigh and the casino are in 100%
agreement that its pure random. What the heck
is all the discussion about.

Ah yes, now we come to the crux of the matter.

The collision between hope and reality: it's rarely pretty.

Quote: EvenBob

Than you and Ahigh and the casino are in 100% agreement that its pure random. What the heck is all the discussion about.

The casinos think that dice influencing is possible.

Quote: Ahigh

Don't pretend that there is not already awareness of what is going on with this forum from every single well-known claimed AP craps player in the world. The three cases in my mind are:

1) Player doesn't want to be known
2) Player doesn't want to be known to be fallible
3) Player doesn't want to spend necessary time to put in enough events to demonstrate their edge over thousands of rolls

4) Player is lucky and thinks he's an DI
5) Player is full of shit.

Quote: MrV

Ah yes, now we come to the crux of the matter. The collision between hope and reality: it's rarely pretty.

As the saying goes, "an optimist believes we live in the best of all worlds, and a pessimist fears it's true."

It would certainly be a relief for the forum's peanut gallery if you actually had facts to support your innuendo.

What is interesting is that you seem to have already come to a conclusion, when, just a moment ago, you called for a robust scientific inquiry into the matter, backed by a university.

I do NOT believe dice setting is a viable way to achieve true advantage play at craps; in that I have been unwavering.

My suggestion was addressed to Aaron and those of his ilk who oh, so very much WANT to believe in the viability of bone arranging.

It seems to me that he has the physical equipment (table, dice, computer) but lacks the scientific / mathematical background to construct a test to conclusively prove or disprove his proposition; plus I question his mastery of higher math and statistics.

It was for this reason that I suggested a mathematician or perhaps a statistician be consulted / hired, to assist him in the creation of a viable methodology to test and interpret the resulting data, scientifically.

Let's start with calculating the appropriate number of trials.

As for hope colliding with reality: there is no innuendo; he HOPES dice setting works, but the REALITY so far is that he is a random roller, and much to his shock and dismay no self-proclaimed successful dice setter gives enough of a damn about his little experiment to go play craps with him at his house.

Quote: MrV

Let's start with calculating the appropriate number of trials.

I have to say this one more time: before you can determine if someone is a dice controller or a dice influencer you will have to define what is a dice controller or what is a dice influencer. What is control? What is influence?

If you simply test for results a random shooter could pass any test with a random throw that gets lucky.

And that to me is the number one problem.

If you want to test for the possibility that someone can have a miraculous SRR keep throwing 3000 shots per hour, and eventually it will happen.
But if you want to test for "control" than determine what you mean by "control." And don't tell me that control is a fantastic SRR because that is something a random shooter can achieve.

Quote: MrV

Ah yes, now we come to the crux of the matter.

The collision between hope and reality: it's rarely pretty.

Laughable that you'd believe even ANY of EvenBob's incorrect assertions. Especially about MY beliefs. He's on block from me for a reason. Noise.

Some things never change.

Listen, I am just calling my rolls random to get you critics off my back by accusing me of making false claims.

I never even once said 100% random.

Give it a freaking rest.

You guys that can only conceive of 100% controlled shot or 100% random need to stop posting on this subject.

Shallow minds, shallow thoughts.

Do I get lucky?

ABSOLUTELY!

If I got unlucky could I lose?

ABSOLUTELY!

You guys that don't already know this stuff are so intellectually myopic it's absolutely ridiculous!

Today on my last 40 throws in the casino I went from $25 to $1000.

That was freaking lucky! So I get lucky!!!

BFD. Not the subject.

NEXT!!!!

Quote: AlanMendelson

I have to say this one more time: before you can determine if someone is a dice controller or a dice influencer you will have to define what is a dice controller or what is a dice influencer. What is control? What is influence?

If you simply test for results a random shooter could pass any test with a random throw that gets lucky.

And that to me is the number one problem.

If you want to test for the possibility that someone can have a miraculous SRR keep throwing 3000 shots per hour, and eventually it will happen.
But if you want to test for "control" than determine what you mean by "control." And don't tell me that control is a fantastic SRR because that is something a random shooter can achieve.

You know what? To me this is all a bunch of incorrect assertions from you Mr M.

I am recording the best attempt at controlled throws that I can to see if they fit expected distributions for random outcomes.

I only STARTED doing this after noting that I was heavy on what was on the top of my set IN THE CASINO.

I have said this OVER AND OVER AND OVER AND OVER AND OVER AND OVER AND OVER.

You keep saying the same things too.

But you are wrong.

I don't have to define jack shit!

The attempt at a controlled shot is either random or it's not.

Look at the data!

Is it random? Then I failed.

Is it no random? Then the software tells you how to bet and how to change the set.

It's that damn simple, Alan.

Dude! Get with it. You really need some ginkgo biloba or something bro!

How is it that you are stuck in that endless thought loop of your focused on "you need to define this and that."

LOOK!!!!

YOU

ARE

WRONG.

I do not need to.

End of story.

God why did I look at your message!!???

Quote: tupp

The casinos think that dice influencing is possible.

That's not true. Casino's protect against short rolls and sliding. If you throw the dice and they hit the table and the wall it's all good. Casinos have no interest in "dice controllers/Influencers".

ZCore13

I'll chime in! Casinos are not people and believe in nothing. Each individual that works for a casino is different.

In general, dealers and even pit crews in casinos believe plenty of things that aren't true just like any other random human being you were to pick out.

Every human being on the planet has beliefs in their brain that are untrue.

And each human being has a different set of false beliefs from each other person.

Talk to dealers. They are employees of the casino. They believe LOTS of untrue stuff!

I know for a fact that there are some employees of some casinos that believe in dice control.

Belief or not, pit crews are generally NOT scared of a DI that hits the back wall. If I were to give an example of one place that might be an exception based on my experiences, it would be Binion's Horseshoe.

Heavy's class paraded through Binions right before me and Teddy visited and they really had an issue with my shot even though there was nothing bad about it from a normal casino's perspective.

But their butts were all worried since the axis crew just left there filling their heads with stuff apparently.

They were talking about the classes and the students that had been there when I came to figure out what their problem was the next day.

But yeah, EACH place and EACH person in EACH casino is slightly different in their beliefs. They will act accordingly.

Quote: Ahigh

Listen, I am just calling my rolls random to get you critics off my back by accusing me of making false claims.

I never even once said 100% random.

Give it a freaking rest.

No, we can't because your flip flopping makes you lose credibility. If you have a position stand by it. You have changed positions so many times some of us can't tell what you really mean.

Quote: Ahigh

You guys that can only conceive of 100% controlled shot or 100% random need to stop posting on this subject.

Shallow minds, shallow thoughts.

Unfortunately Ahigh you haven't defined what is a controlled shot or what is random. So we have nothing to compare your claims or results to. All of us have been at tables where random shooters have done as well or even better than your performances. Even your luck does not go off the "luck scale" and others are even luckier than you. Some actually have what appears to be more skill than you have with your shots.

Quote: Ahigh

Do I get lucky?

ABSOLUTELY!

If I got unlucky could I lose?

ABSOLUTELY!

You guys that don't already know this stuff are so intellectually myopic it's absolutely ridiculous!

Today on my last 40 throws in the casino I went from $25 to $1000.

That was freaking lucky! So I get lucky!!!

BFD. Not the subject.

NEXT!!!!

Yes, and I am willing to say you've been lucky. You haven't shown any ability to control the dice or even influence them. You're one lucky guy.

Ahigh is correct in his reminder that each individual in the pit and in upper management might have a different/unique take on the possibility of dice influencing. However, there are a few casino actions that clearly demonstrate their fear of DIs.

Quote: Zcore13

That's not true. Casino's protect against short rolls and sliding. If you throw the dice and they hit the table and the wall it's all good.

No. Just hitting the back wall is not all good. (Of course, if the dice never hit the table, that would be a "no roll.")

Throwing distance is a variable that comes into play on crapshooter's tables, mini-tubs and full tables with a removable "bump." Because the distance is so short on crapshooter tables and mini-tubs, the shooter is not allowed to set the dice on those tables. Likewise, on a full table with a bump, players positioned between the normal stickman position and the corner are required to move farther away from the bump when shooting, to the corner (or past it).

The casinos don't require such extra counter measures arbitrarily. The measures exist because the casinos with such tables believe that DI is possible at shorter distances -- even when the dice hit the wall. In the case of a table with a bump, I asked a pit manager and some dealers separately, and they all acknowledged that the shooting distance rule was in place to counter dice influencing.

So, casinos believe that DI is possible.

By the way, Club Fortune has a table with a bump (until 4pm), and it's distance from the corner to the bump might be the shortest shooting length of any table on which one is allowed to set the dice.

Aaron, figure out some emoticon to use when you are just being sarcastic. No. Really. It has confused me.

Quote: odiousgambit

Aaron, figure out some emoticon to use when you are just being sarcastic. No. Really. It has confused me.

I just assume he's insincere about everything. He's
lucky, he's skilled. He can influence the dice, its
all random. He's switches back and forth so much,
whatever cred he had is gone with the masked man.

Quote: EvenBob

I just assume he's insincere about everything. He's
lucky, he's skilled. He can influence the dice, its
all random. He's switches back and forth so much,
whatever cred he had is gone with the masked man.

Only in your myopic world are these things mutually exclusive. Maybe you could expand your thought capacities somehow.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Yes, and I am willing to say you've been lucky. You haven't shown any ability to control the dice or even influence them. You're one lucky guy.

Tell that to 7craps. I haven't claimed to be able to have shown control with me rolls, he has. Why you feel like telling me I haven't shown the ability to control the dice is a mystery to me.

It's like me saying you haven't been able to meet me in person. It's a true statement, but what is the underlying point you are trying to make with that statement?

Alright?

Alright.

The difference though is that your statement isn't absolutely true. Just your personal interpretation of the truth because other people have other interpretations.

I am just providing the data and proof that the data isn't cherry picked.

Ahigh

can you give us your betting strategy while at the casino?

if you hit pairs often do you play hardways and the field?
field 11 22 55 66 (4/6 pairs are in the field, 2/6 pair pay double/triple)


I play a betting strategy that i call the "205" -two oh five- and it wins on every roll that misses a 7. you would think the DI/DC would imply this strategy as well since they roll less 7s than the rest of us.

$50 - 5
$60 - 6/8
$35 - field

3-11 pay $35
snakes pay $70
box cars pay $105 - depending if its a triple pay ( i hope you only play where it is )


Sometimes when i am at the casino going to eat i drop by craps and employ this strategy, if i win dinner is free...if not it costs $205 :)
and yes i know long run i lose...but its fun

Quote: EvenBob

I just assume he's insincere about everything. He's
lucky, he's skilled. He can influence the dice, its
all random. He's switches back and forth so much,
whatever cred he had is gone with the masked man.

Reminds me of a certain roulette 'guru' on other boards that is always promising to blow open bet selection to the masses.

Quote: nezbit

Ahigh

can you give us your betting strategy while at the casino?

if you hit pairs often do you play hardways and the field?
field 11 22 55 66 (4/6 pairs are in the field, 2/6 pair pay double/triple)


I play a betting strategy that i call the "205" -two oh five- and it wins on every roll that misses a 7. you would think the DI/DC would imply this strategy as well since they roll less 7s than the rest of us.

$50 - 5
$60 - 6/8
$35 - field

3-11 pay $35
snakes pay $70
box cars pay $105 - depending if its a triple pay ( i hope you only play where it is )


Sometimes when i am at the casino going to eat i drop by craps and employ this strategy, if i win dinner is free...if not it costs $205 :)
and yes i know long run i lose...but its fun

I know you're just catching up, but I do not even claim to know how to bet. I am not a lifetime winner in the casino and I generally just have fun gambling.

My absolutely longest rolls I have not bet at all. IE: just $5 on the line or even $5 on the line and $5 on the don't.

I don't generally HAVE a betting pattern. I bet random bets providing the bets are not against each other and as long as the bets have a 0.5% edge per roll or lower. That's about as specific as I could be about my betting strategies.

Here's an example of something that I do that's sort of weird. Sometimes I might bet $90 on the DC to try to win even money on a crap roll. If it's not a crap roll or a loser, I will just squeeze my edge out of it if by making a place bet. This works best at $30 or higher in multiples of $30 to get the best edge on the four or ten (a buy bet).

The combination of the two bets is a bet against seven or eleven. Anything else is a winner. Just bet a multiple of $30 for the best edge. Places that do vig on the win on the 4 and 10 for both buys and lays are good places to do this.

But I am ALL OVER THE PLACE. I do all sorts of weird stuff, but I would call it gambling to have fun, not advantage play gambling.

I have no clue how to advantage play gamble! I am a loser in the casino in the long run.

One day of wins will change that, but until then, you don't want my advice on what I do at the casino.

I still working on how to roll the dice before I bet big enough to worry about betting strategies.

The reason to bet the DC after you roll a point though is that if you are still trying to roll box numbers, every box number you hit with a come bet, you lose the edge on the come bet.

Taking a place bet on top of a DC bet leverages a larger bankroll and prevents you from betting against yourself at the cost of requiring you to bet units of $25 or higher to prevent from having crazy high edges.

If you are taking all the free odds possible, this is the best way to bet if you don't believe in controlled shooting.

I don't really know what the best way to bet is if you do.

But I do avoid placing the 5 and 9. Otherwise, bet the four and ten for at least $25 with vig on the win, and bet according to what you think you have a better chance to come up on the dice.

The Wizard is all about telling me how to bet. I don't think the Wizard is the expert since he doesn't even believe in controlled shooting. He's only the expert at betting in theory. Not in reality. He requires luck to win, so if you are betting on good luck, he is the man.

If you are betting on a controlled shot, I don't think the best betting strategies for specific roll biases have been discovered yet.

I will tell you the MP204 is *NOT* the way to go.

To conclude: I don't know how to bet for a controlled shot. I only know how to bet to have fun!!!