Biased Dice vs a Biased Table

Suppose dice are biased to a certain minor degree. (Loaded dice with criminal intent are not dice with a minor bias.)

Suppose that all craps tables also have a bias which comes from uneven wear, compression of the felt or surfaces, tiny imbalances in the positioning of the layout or the table surface itself.

Then can you really say that the bias of the dice is to blame when a "dice influencer" does not get the expected results?

Should a biased table or biased dice even matter to a random shooter?

Biased dice, if real, would matter to a random shooter. It could help or hurt.

Biased table? That is a pretty big stretch to say that table wear/shape would increase the frequency of particular faces.

I know of absolutely no ways to bias a table. In order for a table to exhibit bias, it would have to interact differently with the dice depending on what face what orientated in what direction.

Magnetic induction fits the description of a biased table, but that's more that just simple bias, and would consider that more just straight cheating that simple bias from the geometry of the table.

In general, tables can have features that increase randomness. But the bias that is exhibited is from another source, not the table directly.

For example, a table that had a half inch of sand in in instead of felt still isn't biased even if the dice don't bounce. It just enables bias to come from the shooter by lacking features that provide a sufficient amount of randomness from a proper number of bounces to achieve a random outcome.

For the random thrower, dice only are still to blame if results are not random. If the dice are perfectly balanced, then each of the dice faces will encounter the bias of the table equally.

Now if your throwing technique can create bias or the dice have bias themselves, then it's possible that table bias can further influence the final result. But my engineering sense says that the bias effect of the table will be significantly less than the dice.

I think as long as people have limited BRs, any bias is going to affect the outcome. It could mess with their heads believing things which differ from the theoretical probabilities correctly once, then doubly wrong the next time the bias is against them. The only way to know would be to do experiments with real life bettors, which can't be done.

A biased table could only be against someone who is trying to be skilled and unable to judge the bounce, not realizing the variable. It's easier playing pool to notice the bias, than throwing dice since things are so complicated and far away.

Quote: onenickelmiracle

I think as long as people have limited BRs, any bias is going to affect the outcome. It could mess with their heads believing things which differ from the theoretical probabilities correctly once, then doubly wrong the next time the bias is against them. The only way to know would be to do experiments with real life bettors, which can't be done.

A biased table could only be against someone who is trying to be skilled and unable to judge the bounce, not realizing the variable. It's easier playing pool to notice the bias, than throwing dice since things are so complicated and far away.

I had to read both of these responses multiple times to understand what is being said, but both are really good points.

If you fervently believe that dice are 100% fair and you bet boldly according to that belief, the results can be MUCH more catastrophic than should be if things had been fair.

Studies on the psychology of this would be QUITE interesting. I agree.

Especially on seasoned and/or very experienced players who have a good grasp on what is and is not likely to occur with fair dice.

Quote: Ahigh

I had to read both of these responses multiple times to understand what is being said, but both are really good points.

If you fervently believe that dice are 100% fair and you bet boldly according to that belief, the results can be MUCH more catastrophic than should be if things had been fair.

Studies on the psychology of this would be QUITE interesting. I agree.

Especially on seasoned and/or very experienced players who have a good grasp on what is and is not likely to occur with fair dice.

I think the point is a statistical analysis cannot be done to show what the effect would be(of biased dice), because we all reflect back to the theoretical as if it is a religion. I can only begin to understand this because I am only limited to thought experiments and cannot even begin to do what some of these people can do. I do know some things which contradict the common beliefs and try to relate them. For example in golf, if you make the hole bigger it makes the better golfers have an even greater advantage over those who are bad putters. Who would guess that?

The more complicated things are, the harder they are for the average person to grasp and overcome and those whom study have the advantage. The idea of biased dice means results are going to be different than what is expected to happen and is completely different than the basis for the odds. Yet, people are going back to the religion of what fair dice should be, to support what should happen and the effect. It cannot be done unless you know exactly what the bias is and models are going to assume as many people betting one way as against them. When a lotto is drawn, how many people pick the same numbers and relay that to this. Betting patterns are not random, but the dice are. Someone else smarter and more capable is going to have to tie this together. I would compare the results of a 0% edge with this idea, because even with 0% edge half the people lose all their money.

Its not as if it were a bar room wherein the pool table can get used for other activities after the official closing time, its a casino and the table will not be that warped. Occasional drink spills just ain't gonna create a guaranteed 12 spot for North flying dice.

Statistically speaking you would want to measure the following degrees of randomness. Take your dice mechanical experiment for example.

Test Cases:
1.) Take an unbias table - Loaded dice versus unbias dice.
2.) Take a bias table - Loaded dice versus unbias dice.
3.) Use the data from unbias dice to compare between bias table and unbias table
4.) Use the data from loaded dice to compare between bias table and unbias table

In each case, measure the statistical distribution under a controlled environment. Measure your degree of randomness versus expected normal distributions based on the probability of the outcomes.

I suspect that in the first example, assuming you believe in dice control, if you are aware of how the dice is loaded and consistently set your dice in a certain manner, the loading will not make a difference. You'll just get a slightly different distribution. Imagine setting the flying V and always getting a 7 due to the loading.

In the second example where both the table and the dice are loaded, it's possible that the degree of randomness will cancel each other out. But once again, you would compare the test case distribution results between actual and expected (measure the standard deviation and the various probabilities).

You need 4 sets of data to answer this. Personally, I don't think that microscopic wear and tear makes a whole lot of difference. I do believe however, that bias tables influence outcomes like felts that absorb all contact cause the dice to die upon landing.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Then can you really say that the bias of the dice is to blame when a "dice influencer" does not get the expected results?

There is no such thing as "dice influence" so there is no "blame" to bestow for something that can't happen.

All these discussions about dice and tables will end up
where it always ends up, you are stuck with whats
there so live with it. Notice the Wiz isn't involved in
any of this. I assume he also knows all of this will
end up going nowhere.

Quote: s2dbaker

There is no such thing as "dice influence" so there is no "blame" to bestow for something that can't happen.

Genius.

Here's my assertion: there's no such thing as "s2dbaker" so that comment doesn't exist.

Quote: EvenBob

All these discussions about dice and tables will end up
where it always ends up, you are stuck with whats
there so live with it. Notice the Wiz isn't involved in
any of this. I assume he also knows all of this will
end up going nowhere.

Absolutely false. At the very least, someone will get suspended as a result of this. If there were no chance of that, you wouldn't even participate.

Quote: Ahigh

Absolutely false. At the very least, someone will get suspended as a result of this.

Get suspended over what? What are you talking about.

Quote: EvenBob

Get suspended over what? What are you talking about.

I think he means the discussion will get heated enough over it that someone will eventually get suspended. I know I am already biting my tongue a bit, and I barely participate. I am a poor arguer though; I know this for a fact, so I'm better off staying out of threads like this.

Quote: EvenBob

All these discussions about dice and tables will end up
where it always ends up, you are stuck with whats
there so live with it. Notice the Wiz isn't involved in
any of this. I assume he also knows all of this will
end up going nowhere.

I remember when I joined, every now and again we'd get someone who'd plead for a Craps forum. Wiz created several in the meantime, yet always seemed to "miss" one for Craps.

I think I'm starting to understand why =)

Quote: tringlomane

I think he means the discussion will get heated enough over it that someone will eventually get suspended. .

They have these heated discussions about roulette
on other forums. Somebody gets a burr under
their blanket and is going to prove that casinos
employs shill dealers who can make the ball land
in any pocket they wish. The discussion rages and
then goes away till next time, just like this one will.

I still maintain that the surfaces the dice come in
contact with alter the outcome far more than any
biased dice would. Its just common sense. Any
you can't do anything about either, so why worry
about it. The results are still random.

Quote: EvenBob

They have these heated discussions about roulette
on other forums. Somebody gets a burr under
their blanket and is going to prove that casinos
employs shill dealers who can make the ball land
in any pocket they wish.

Careful there... several years ago I was at a demonstration at a casino where a dealer targeted a slice of the wheel with five pockets and hit it several times. And that was a demonstration AT the casino.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Careful there... several years ago I was at a demonstration at a casino where a dealer targeted a slice of the wheel with five pockets and hit it several times. And that was a demonstration AT the casino.

I've seen the same thing. I knew a dealer in Germany that could hit the same white diamond on the wheel with the ball 9 times out of 10 (meaning the ball started to drop and hits the same diamond after the same number of spins). If you can control the speed of the ball and speed of the wheel I don't see a problem with coming up with a system. Who knows if it can really beat American roulette though.

Another the problem is that you need someone in on it inside. Roulette dealers are often told to vary their speeds for the ball and wheel.

this is a pretty simple question to answer.


you have influence when your records ( such as smart craps) says you do.... if you have logged thousands of rolls
and it does not show an advantage you have none.... end of story.


smart craps has several indicators.... the hardest to pass is prime numbers, meaning hardways.... if you can pass
3 of 4 indicators ( including SRR) you will have influence.... you can even run a similation to show what yours
is.

For me i want to maintain a SRR over 7, i want over 30% 6 & 8 in combination and i would like 55% axis control.

Axis control for me is hard.... but it is vital that you understand that because using the 3 vet set if you have less
than 50% control can be a killer, and if you use the hard way set and have 55-60% control, that can also be
hard because the closer to perfect you get with the hardway set, the more vulnerable you are to the 4/3 and 3/4

Dice influence is not dice control.. it is not going to the table anytime you want and throwing a 40 roll or a hard 8.
It is a small advantage over time, just like the casino has on the pass line and other bets, how in the world can
a casino build what they have with such small margins.. it is simple, they have those margins 24 hours a day 365
days a year.

Any one that tries can get a small margin over the craps table with practice.

dicesitter.

Please stop the bovine feces!!!