martingale the field - math question
What are the chances that you would reach a bet of $5000 - starting with a bet of $5, if you martingale the field?
(What are the chances that a 5,6,8 hit 10 times before a 2,3,4,9,10,11,12 hit once?)
What if you add the 7 in? What are the chances a 5,6,7,8 hit 10 times before a 2,3,4,9,10,11 or 12 hit once?
If I am also martingale - ing the Lay 10 at the same time, it often takes the loss on the field if a 7 hits out the equation (meaning I add enough padding in to cover the field loss usually). Of course this isn't the case if am around above $200 on the field, but I have been playing that way on my iphone for a while and it hasn't happened yet.
A 10 step Marty requires a $2,560.00 bet at the 10th step,Quote: slackyhackyWhat are the chances that you would reach a bet of $5000 - starting with a bet of $5, if you martingale the field?
What if you add the 7 in?
What are the chances a 5,6,7,8 hit 10 times before a 2,3,4,9,10,11 or 12 hit once?
1023 betting units, so at $5 that would be $5,115 starting bankroll.
You have a 0.002800754
(20/36)^10
chance or 1 in 357.046723 to lose 10 in a row and kill a great part of your bankroll if not all.
99.7199% chance of hitting a Field before 10 losses in a row.
Sounds great. But how many times in a row before you can double your bankroll with a 10Step Marty before you go broke???
Here is a table I did using calculations and simulations up to an 8Step Marty.
We can extend it to 10 for the Field (without doing any more work and be quite close)
About a 38% chance to double with a 10Marty and 3X Field payoff
That drops to 20% with a 2X Field payoff.
The pass line without odds is a better canidate for Marty betting IMO.
To double a bankroll
| Marty Step | Max Bet | Required Bank Units | Double to | pass Line (no odds)success Prob % | Field 2X | Field 3X |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 47.71 | 41.28 | 43.97 |
| 4 | 8 | 15 | 30 | 46.87 | 38.98 | 43.17 |
| 5 | 16 | 31 | 62 | 46.01 | 36.75 | 42.27 |
| 6 | 32 | 63 | 126 | 45.13 | 34.66 | 41.37 |
| 7 | 64 | 127 | 254 | 44.26 | 32.75 | 40.51 |
| 8 | 128 | 255 | 510 | 43.27 | 31.03 | 39.71 |
To triple a bankroll
Looks about 20% or worse.
| Marty Step | Max Bet | Required Bank Units | Triple to | pass Line (no odds)success Prob % | Field 2X | Field 3X |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 30.39 | 23.64 | 27.96 |
| 4 | 8 | 15 | 45 | 29.36 | . | 26.78 |
| 5 | 16 | 31 | 93 | 28.33 | . | 25.65 |
| 6 | 32 | 63 | 189 | 27.3 | . | 24.6 |
| 7 | 64 | 127 | 381 | 26.2 | . | 23.65 |
| 8 | 128 | 255 | 765 | 22.74 | . | 22.7 |
You would have to have a very large bankroll to Marty the Lay 10 and many times would hit the max table limit.Quote: slackyhackyIf I am also martingale - ing the Lay 10 at the same time, it often takes the loss on the field if a 7 hits out the equation (meaning I add enough padding in to cover the field loss usually). Of course this isn't the case if am around above $200 on the field, but I have been playing that way on my iphone for a while and it hasn't happened yet.
You should just code this up in WinCraps and have at it.
You can do it. Very easy to do.
Seeing is believing most times.
Good Luck
Quote: 7crapsA 10 step Marty requires a $2,560.00 bet at the 10th step,
1023 betting units, so at $5 that would be $5,115 starting bankroll.
You have a 0.002800754
(20/36)^10
chance or 1 in 357.046723 to lose 10 in a row and kill a great part of your bankroll if not all.
99.7199% chance of hitting a Field before 10 losses in a row.
Sounds great. But how many times in a row before you can double your bankroll with a 10Step Marty before you go broke???
Here is a table I did using calculations and simulations up to an 8Step Marty.
We can extend it to 10 for the Field (without doing any more work and be quite close)
About a 38% chance to double with a 10Marty and 3X Field payoff
That drops to 20% with a 2X Field payoff.
The pass line without odds is a better canidate for Marty betting IMO.
To double a bankroll
Marty Step Max Bet Required Bank Units Double to pass Line (no odds)success Prob % Field 2X Field 3X 3 4 7 14 47.71 41.28 43.97 4 8 15 30 46.87 38.98 43.17 5 16 31 62 46.01 36.75 42.27 6 32 63 126 45.13 34.66 41.37 7 64 127 254 44.26 32.75 40.51 8 128 255 510 43.27 31.03 39.71
To triple a bankroll
Looks about 20% or worse.
Marty Step Max Bet Required Bank Units Triple to pass Line (no odds)success Prob % Field 2X Field 3X 3 4 7 21 30.39 23.64 27.96 4 8 15 45 29.36 . 26.78 5 16 31 93 28.33 . 25.65 6 32 63 189 27.3 . 24.6 7 64 127 381 26.2 . 23.65 8 128 255 765 22.74 . 22.7
You would have to have a very large bankroll to Marty the Lay 10 and many times would hit the max table limit.
You should just code this up in WinCraps and have at it.
You can do it. Very easy to do.
Seeing is believing most times.
Good Luck
I've tried to code it up in WinCraps. I can't seem to get it to play my system.
Thanks for the data.
After only recording about 340 rolls, my software was telling me I could have an edge in the field by using the set I was already using (the 6262 set). Today, the edge still exists in the field at nearly 3000 rolls. To really push that edge to the limits with Fibonacci, here's a graph showing what my last 2788 roll look like with a 6262 set (boxcars on the top of my set).
The underlying theory of my bias is that whatever is on the top of my set I am heaviest on. So it's no surprised that my Monte Carlo simulation is finding that at 66 set gives me an edge in the field.
In fact, it was this fact (that I was hitting so many 12's and actually losing big come bets) that motivated me to write the software that I use right now to figure out what the hell was going on.
IE: it was losing a lot of money, not winning, that caused me to look into the possibility of a biased throw.
I also noticed that field players loved having me shoot when I was rolling the 6262 set. I now use the 4242 set.
My Monte Carlo simulator still tells me the 6262 set is the ideal set for field bets.
Sometimes there is a specific event that leads to a current way of doing things.Quote: AhighIn fact, it was this fact (that I was hitting so many 12's and actually losing big come bets) that motivated me to write the software that I use right now to figure out what the hell was going on.
A shooter at the Golden Nugget in Vegas got me to really use WinCraps and Excel for my craps data crunching back in I think 2006 or 7 (without looking)
She has a 6 foot tall redhead virgin shooter, otherwise you would not even notice her except for her shorter boyfriend - unless you are into reds,
and her hand was something.
A wild chicken feeder I do remember, throwing the dice off the table at least 3 times during the point rolls.
Here is her hand data
Come bettors were grumpy early on from all the Hi-Lo action
But look at how many doubles (pairs) she rolled!
4 in a row in the first 5 rolls
then another 6 in a row (10 out of 13)
I kept betting the Horn from her first Yo winner.
She never did hit her point as can be seen from her roll data.
(25 rolls trying, she was betting the field $5 every time (GN pays 3x),
and just a $5 pass line bet with no odds)
shooter #31
cor 11,win (1,#)
cor 7,win (1,#)
cor 10,4h,6h,2,12,5,5,2,8h,6h,12,8h,12,8,5,6,9,11,8,11,9,4,4h,5,12,7,out (26,#)
shooter #31 28 roll hand
3 # COR
0 # Point Wins
0 # Fire Bets
2,1 shooter score: pass,miss
16 # Place HitsSome Craps events do stick out in the memory,
most just "slither wildly as they slip away across the universe"
Quote: 7crapsHere is her hand data
Come bettors were grumpy early on from all the Hi-Lo action
But look at how many doubles (pairs) she rolled!
4 in a row in the first 5 rolls
then another 6 in a row (10 out of 13)
Hopefully they cheered up when she started rolling so many repeaters! I would have liked to be in on that roll...5 lost come bets, but 3 won with the 11s and the 7-out.
Assuming you were "always coming" (sometimes but not always my strategy), bets won/lost on each box number:
4 - 2 won, 1 lost
6 - 2 won, 1 lost
5 - 3 won, 1 lost
8 - 3 won, 1 lost
9 - 1 won, 1 lost
You would have made a net profit on the roll, but not by much I suppose.
