Quote: EvenBobYou can't because you have no idea.
You keep on believing that, and we'll just leave it there. Convenience is your game. And that's absolutely a convenient belief. So stick with it, bra! Keep us updated on how it serves you.
Quote: AhighYou keep on believing that,
Dude, you're the one that makes statements
you can't back up. You say Harley knows stuff
we don't know. Okay, I'll bite, LIKE WHAT?
I missed seeing the show live, dangit.
I watched some that was recorded,and I really enjoyed it.
Thanks for all your effort in putting it on for everyone else to enjoy.
It was easy to see from the beginning that Nickolay was an upstanding person
and great "kudos" to him for his part in it.
I thought Harley was a good shot as well,
had I been there I'd wanted to know if he could shoot hardways just
as good as horn rolls.
Remember people, it's not a conspiracy "theory" if someone really is
out to get you.
Quote: EvenBobDude, you're the one that makes statements
you can't back up. You say Harley knows stuff
we don't know. Okay, I'll bite, LIKE WHAT?
It is an absolute fact that Harley knows things that you don't.
If you cannot bring yourself to believe this obvious truth, there is no point in talking further with you.
Please continue on with your obviously flawed belief system, and I know that Harley will with his as well.
But don't attack mine! I am merely the messenger in this case.
Quote: EvenBobYou're lucky I wasn't
there, I would have showed you some of the drama you
seem to crave so much.
Your making the assumption I would have allowed you into my house and/or that luck is what prevented you from being there.
Everyone that was in my house is respected by me. Everyone.
You're not in that list.
Quote: Ahigh
You're not in that list.
Oh no. That's equivalent to being left off
the local Jehovah's Witness prayer roster,
only better.
Quote: odiousgambitsomebody is going to get suspended for bullying, but I can't decide which guy it is going to be [g]
Hopefully "Spike"
I just can't think of any positive contribution to ANYTHING that I have talked about on this forum from EvenBob.
I'm sure it's my own fault, but the guy has zero value to me personally.
I mean none.
Maybe if I tried harder I could imagine some value he brings.
Evidently your definition and mine of the word NEVER differ greatly.
Quote: superrick
Here is a question for everybody, do you even play craps or do you just post to find out what you can about the game? Do you love craps for the math aspect of the game and that is your true love, the math of the game? Personally I get a kick out of reading some of the views on these boards, especially when I read that the best bet on a craps table is the pass-line bet with full odds. That just goes to show you that the poster doesn't play craps, they just go by the math of the game! The so-called free odds were developed to get players to bet the pass-line and to put more money on a losing bet! You might get lucky when playing that way, if everything goes just right. But the math of the game of the game should tell you that it's a bad bet, because most shooter never make their point!
You can always tell a "Patrick player," but you can't tell him much.
Quote: Ahigh
I just can't think of any positive contribution to ANYTHING that I have talked about on this forum from EvenBob.
He's a curmudgeonly Reality Check.
Think of it like this: imagine you're a cesspool, filled to capacity, and he's a smarmy honey dipper saying "Yeah, you're full of it alright."
Bob fancies his roll as explaining the obvious to those he deems oblivious.
Quote: SuperRickHere is a question for everybody, do you even play craps or do you just post to find out what you can about the game? Do you love craps for the math aspect of the game and that is your true love, the math of the game? Personally I get a kick out of reading some of the views on these boards, especially when I read that the best bet on a craps table is the pass-line bet with full odds. That just goes to show you that the poster doesn't play craps, they just go by the math of the game! The so-called free odds were developed to get players to bet the pass-line and to put more money on a losing bet! You might get lucky when playing that way, if everything goes just right. But the math of the game of the game should tell you that it's a bad bet, because most shooter never make their point!
With all due respect, does that make the Don't Pass Bet with Full Odds an advantage play, using the same logic?
....... can't we all just get along
for those that have walked in my moccasins, thank you for having my 6 .... I appreciate the kind words
for those that want to know or doubt "my winning formula", all I can say is that you usually have to observe and be flexible to what you are presented with AND that there are more than a 1,000 ways to win and more than 2,000 ways to lose at Craps .... there is no right way and there is no wrong way, but whatever way you choose -- have fun !!
Quote: Mission146With all due respect, does that make the Don't Pass Bet with Full Odds an advantage play, using the same logic?
Do not expect a respectful answer for stating the obvious.
Quote:
With all due respect, does that make the Don't Pass Bet with Full Odds an advantage play, using the same logic?
What a thought provoking question!
So I'll answer it with a very simple answer, so everybody can understand it!
What part of negative don't you understand? You are playing a negative game, which you will never gain an advantage on; on either side of the table, by using full odds.
The so called free odds bet was developed to get players to bet more money on both the pass-line and the don't pass bet.
If the pass-line was such a good bet, then why do the casinos try to sell you that bet, and why are they always reminding you to take the so-called free odds? Are the wheels turning in your head? Casinos will never give a sucker a break; I will give you one more example, why do you think that some casinos make you bet a pass-line bet in order for you to make a bonus bet, like the fire bet? I know, I know because they want you to win with their great pass-line bet, sure they do!
Do yourself a favor and read some books on casino management, before you start writing about your great pass-line bet with full odds or the don't pass bet with full odds. There is a reason why the casinos have those bets and it's not so you have a better chance of winning!
Here are some book reviews!
http://procraps4u2.myfanforum.org/about1758.html
http://procraps4u2.myfanforum.org/forum41.php
I would start off with Casino Operations Management
By Jim Kilby and Jim Fox copyright 1998
http://www.amazon.com/Casino-Oper...anagement-Jim-Kilby/dp/0471266329
Most players would never think about reading anything on casino management, they would rather take the lazy way out and just lose their money, without understanding what they are up against. If you gamble the first thing you need to understand is what the casinos are doing to take your money.
There is so much BS written on the boards about gambling, you owe it to yourself to go out and find the real story about what you are doing, a good home library may help you stand a chance of winning.
Fortunately we have one of the best library systems in the country in Las Vegas for gaming, and if you can't find the book you are looking for there you can always go to:
http://webpac.library.unlv.edu/search/X?SEARCH=gaming&searchscope=1&submit.x=12&submit.y=9
Then if you want to know about craps:
http://webpac.library.unlv.edu/search~S1/?searchtype=X&searcharg=craps&searchscope=1&SORT=DZ&extended=1&submit.x=15&submit.y=8&searchlimits=&searchorigarg=Xgaming
While you might not be able to check out the books because you're not a student, you can still go there and do research in the library, so the next time your in town and you already blew your bankroll, because you knew it all, you might want to spend some of your free time at the library!
Now I'm not telling Mission146 that this is what he should do, because I don't know what he or anybody else know about the subject of gaming, all I'm saying is, if you are going to walk into a casino you should do some reading before you do so!
This post is for the benefit of anybody that thinks they know about gaming, but have not read a thing about it and are going by what they read on the boards, when most of it is just BS that will cost you money when you play craps. A well informed player is an intelligent player that can make rational decisions on his own and not go by the BS that is written on the games we all play!
So with all due respect Mission146, I hope that this post answered your thought provoking question!
I don't claim to know it all, but at least I will take the time to find out everything I can about the game of craps and how the casinos manage their games to take your money and I will be the first to tell you that just like everybody else I lose too, casinos wouldn't be around if everybody won. Negative is still negative, I don't care how you look at it! That is why casinos win, you can't change the odds to be in your favor, you can only hope to get lucky when you are playing, contrary to popular belief!
Quote: superrick
What a thought provoking question!
Thanks, I try.
Quote:You are playing a negative game, which you will never gain an advantage on; on either side of the table, by using full odds.
I'm aware of that and fail to see your point. I fail to see how the Odds Bet, with a long-term expectation of 0 is a bad bet. I didn't say anything about it being a good bet, it's a good bet compared to the Pass Line Bet, or the Don't Pass Bet. It's a good bet compared to the Field Bet, or anything else on the Craps Table.
It's obviously not a, "Good bet," in the sense of being advantageous, though. I'm already aware of that. You said:
Quote:The so-called free odds were developed to get players to bet the pass-line and to put more money on a losing bet! You might get lucky when playing that way, if everything goes just right. But the math of the game of the game should tell you that it's a bad bet, because most shooter never make their point!
OK, so what makes it a losing bet?
Is it the long-term expectation? It can't be, because the long-term expectation is 0.
Is it the probability of success? If it is the probability of success, then the Odds Bet on Don't Pass would be an advantage play because you have a probability of success of over 50%.
However, the long-term expectaion of the Laying the Odds is also 0, so that's not the case, either. With respect to long-term expectation, the probability of winning is irrelevant. It is not from such that the House derives its edge.
You specifically said it is because, "Most shooter (sic) never make their point," so I have to assume you meant probability of winning. If you are saying it is a bad bet pursuant to that Logic, then Laying the Odds on Don't Pass is a fantastic bet.
Quote:The so called free odds bet was developed to get players to bet more money on both the pass-line and the don't pass bet.
The casino wants the players to bet more money? Why should they want such a thing?
Quote:If the pass-line was such a good bet, then why do the casinos try to sell you that bet, and why are they always reminding you to take the so-called free odds? Are the wheels turning in your head? Casinos will never give a sucker a break; I will give you one more example, why do you think that some casinos make you bet a pass-line bet in order for you to make a bonus bet, like the fire bet? I know, I know because they want you to win with their great pass-line bet, sure they do!
Ummm....You must be confusing me with the guy that said a bet with a negative expectation is a great bet. PL/DP are certainly the best two bets that can be made on the Come Out Roll. Furthermore, I believe that those casinos may implement such a policy because they will accept Fire Bets that are often less than the Table Minimum, but since the Fire Bet can occasionally take some time to resolve, you really don't want the guy doing nothing but tossing a White at the Fire Bet and doing nothing else taking space at the table.
Quote:Do yourself a favor and read some books on casino management, before you start writing about your great pass-line bet with full odds or the don't pass bet with full odds. There is a reason why the casinos have those bets and it's not so you have a better chance of winning!
Again, I must have missed the part where I said it is a great bet.
Quote:While you might not be able to check out the books because you're not a student, you can still go there and do research in the library, so the next time your in town and you already blew your bankroll, because you knew it all, you might want to spend some of your free time at the library!
Quote:Negative is still negative, I don't care how you look at it! That is why casinos win, you can't change the odds to be in your favor, you can only hope to get lucky when you are playing, contrary to popular belief!
Hmmm....you may have completely missed the point of my single-line post. If so, I truly apologize. It was not my intention to cause you to type out a small novella over a single-line. Please also excuse my sarcasm from earlier in this post if you misunderstood my initial comment.
Quote: superrickHere is a question for everybody, do you even play craps or do you just post to find out what you can about the game? Do you love craps for the math aspect of the game and that is your true love, the math of the game? Personally I get a kick out of reading some of the views on these boards, especially when I read that the best bet on a craps table is the pass-line bet with full odds. That just goes to show you that the poster doesn't play craps, they just go by the math of the game! The so-called free odds were developed to get players to bet the pass-line and to put more money on a losing bet! You might get lucky when playing that way, if everything goes just right. But the math of the game of the game should tell you that it's a bad bet, because most shooter never make their point!
Quote: Beethoven9thQuote: superrickHere is a question for everybody, do you even play craps or do you just post to find out what you can about the game? Do you love craps for the math aspect of the game and that is your true love, the math of the game? Personally I get a kick out of reading some of the views on these boards, especially when I read that the best bet on a craps table is the pass-line bet with full odds. That just goes to show you that the poster doesn't play craps, they just go by the math of the game! The so-called free odds were developed to get players to bet the pass-line and to put more money on a losing bet! You might get lucky when playing that way, if everything goes just right. But the math of the game of the game should tell you that it's a bad bet, because most shooter never make their point!
I get a kick out of reading this post.
Let me summarize what Rick is saying: if a computer pseudo-random-number generated created the faces from one through six for each of the dice, everything on this forum that does mathematical analysis would make perfect sense.
But since real casino dice are used, the difference between how real casino dice resolve and how pseudo-random-number generators work leads to things that affect the results more than the miniscule edge as described by the mathematics built on top of things being 100% truly random in function of the dice outcome. This is all theory, I will admit, but that's the underlying point that I believe Rick is articulating.
Put another way, 100% of dice are biased positively or negatively -- even if only by 0.0000001%! Therefore there are no "free" bets. There are only bets with an unknown edge biased towards the player or the casino depending on the details of what dice are selected and other factors that are in addition to the random properties of the way that dice resolve.
The easiest way to deal with all this is to conveniently call it all "randomness." And that's generally the accepted answer on this forum. It's absolutely a convenient solution to a very difficult problem of how free bets work in the real world.
But a "free bet" is an idealized concept, and given that they generally only exist in fantasy land of idealized notions, you best understand and believe that the casino is going to do work to assure that they are not exposed by the typical betting strategies being employed in the casino for those free bets.
Again, I would like to point out, that this is the theory of why the passline and free odds bets are considered to be bad bets.
I took pretty serious issue with these claims myself, and thought that these claims were pretty, well, ignorant, frankly.
But it's worth doing some digging to see if it holds water, really. I mean lots of data collection from real casinos during busy and peak hours by impartial individuals to learn the truth.
Assuming that the dice are 100.0000% random, all of Rick's comments are pretty much amounting to "be careful not to bet too much."
Quote: AhighAgain, I would like to point out, that this is the theory of why the passline and free odds bets are considered to be bad bets.
Um, no, at least not at least if you are trying to get at Superrick's "core beliefs."
Clearly he is parroting the same nonsense that his guru, John Patrick, loves to spew about how the pass line bet is a bad bet.
It really has nothing to do with whether the dice are biased.
It has everything to do with an aversion to and inability to accept / acknowledge even basic mathematical concepts such as probability.
In other words, 'tis naught but superstitious delusion.
But hey, there's a lot of that at a craps table, and we all have to come to grips with our insistence on playing a negative expectation game.
an ironclad layout, then let the players throw the dice
to give them the illusion of effecting the outcome. It worked
like a charm and its still working. Half the new threads here
are about craps. How many would play if a dealer threw
the dice. With the player throwing its a real suckers game,
the best in the casino.
We know better, don't we?
LOL, it must be that we feel that we are the exception to the rule, that we are "the golden child."
Choose you delusion.
Quote: EvenBobYou have to credit the inventors of craps. They produced
an ironclad layout, then let the players throw the dice
to give them the illusion of effecting the outcome. It worked
like a charm and its still working. Half the new threads here
are about craps. How many would play if a dealer threw
the dice. With the player throwing its a real suckers game,
the best in the casino.
I think that is only part of the draw in craps. There is the camaraderie aspect to it. There isn't a game on the casino floor with a team play feel to it like there is at a craps table. When in a casino and you hear a loud cheer from multiple people, it is almost always from a craps table.
Or those same people have spotted Sasquash.
Perfect x & Y axis, perfect dice set, perfect landing, beautiful bounce, etc. Impossible to duplicate by a human. But what if under these perfect conditions , dice setting provides random results, then WHAT ? ?
Probably biased dice bullshit or something else to fleece the suckers and sell them books, dvds , classes, etc !
Quote: BuzzardHow about designing a real test ? Forget a mechanical throwing arm. Instead make some sort of slide or rectangular tube, with an air assist or just gravity to provide a momentum equivalent to the dice being thrown. Have them land in almost the same spot with enough energy to then bounce of the back wall hard enough for a legal throw.
Perfect x & Y axis, perfect dice set, perfect landing, beautiful bounce, etc. Impossible to duplicate by a human. But what if under these perfect conditions , dice setting provides random results, then WHAT ? ?
Probably biased dice bullshit or something else to fleece the suckers and sell them books, dvds , classes, etc !
To me, even though some people don't realize it, randomness does go away completely when the initial conditions are sufficiently small to not create random results (dropping a die from 1mm above the felt for example).
For dropping a die straight down onto the felt, you could plot out the p-value as a function of drop height on a real craps table. But that still neglects correlated results, which is where I think a lot of the meat is in the real-world of being able to get favorable outcomes.
But it still, also, sounds pretty boring. I'd much rather have Dice Coach, Stanford Wong, or Dominator come on the show and do some throws on film getting good results and low p-values at the same time.
In his last interview, I think Stanford said his shooting wasn't up to practice. Maybe all the good shooters are just out of practice? Maybe they don't know what I'm doing? Maybe they are so stinking rich, they are living on their own island? I think so far the results are that nobody is willing to put themselves under the microscope like Nickolay was.
Nick already showed an amazing p-value -- random or not, the computer thought the throws were pretty unexpected distributions!
Quote: Gabes22I think that is only part of the draw in craps. There is the camaraderie aspect to it. .
Again, thats because the players are allowed to throw.
Its gives the illusion of the players controlling the game,
they're all in it together. If they let players throw the ball
in roulette, the same thing would happen.
Quote: EvenBobAgain, thats because the players are allowed to throw.
Its gives the illusion of the players controlling the game,
they're all in it together. If they let players throw the ball
in roulette, the same thing would happen.
I think part of it too, is that most players bet with each other in that game as well. I don't think betting patterns would change if the house rolls the dice or the player rolls the dice.
Quote: Gabes22I don't think betting patterns would change if the house rolls the dice or the player rolls the dice.
But the games popularity would change drastically.
When people discuss craps, they always concentrate
on the shooter. How to throw, who was hot, who was
cold. When do they get to throw. Having a dealer or
a device do it would remove all the excitement. Might
as well put in an RNG and have the dice appear on
a screen.
Quote: Ahigh
SOOPOO and I consider each other friends, but we are both very head-strong people. When I was in a position to lose $100 to the Wizard trying to chase a couple of losing events while SOOPOO was interjecting things during my performance instead of helping me to win my bet, I had to take a position with SOOPOO which I had never take before, which was a more dominant position. My money was at stake! I am sure that SOOPOO was less than thrilled about the way that I talked to him, and I'm also sure that he has never had me talk to him that way before.
I took ABSOLUTELY no offense! If anything, I agreed with you and felt bad.... If I was interfering with your throws that is not what I wanted to do! I was only thrilled.... and still appreciate your generousity and hospitality.
Quote: Gabes22... High fiving for BJs and such.
... somebody please help me here .... 3 some is playing ... lady in the middle ... guy in the back reaches over and gives a high 5 to the guy in front receiving a BJ .... what are the odds
I thought you win by making predictable distributions, not unexpected ones !
Quote: BuzzardI thought you win by making predictable distributions, not unexpected ones !
If his distributions are consistent, then they are predictable. :^P
Bull shit. Horse hockey, and what a load.
The Wizard of Odds site and Mike are dedicated to the math of the game. It's the math the casino subscribes to when setting their games, and it's the long term expected win/lose if you have an infinite bankroll and sit at a craps table. That is, if you play with $1,000,000 and plunk $10 on the pass line and back it up with full odds, well guess what. After 100,000 pass lines, you're going to be pretty damned close to being down $14,140 dollars. You won't be up.
What you see on the table from the dice can be replicated by a random dice replicator on a computer.
The only thing you can do to adjust your gains and losses is to change the size of your bet and the style of your bet to change your expected loss. Period. If you want to believe that the dice aren't random, it's your money. You will find that there are people who are bucking the trend long term, but those will always exist on the variance curve, because the game allows for winners, even long term.
Quote: boymimboWhat you see on the table from the dice can be replicated by a random dice replicator on a computer.
What blind certainty! Do you have evidence? If I were to guess I would say that you have made records of resolved dice less than I have both in the casino and elsewhere. Would that be a accurate guess, or are you in a position to assert with great certainty from actual data?
The Wizard himself scoffed at the entire NOTION of questioning the dice being fair versus unfair.
I believe you would as well.
But without evidence you scoff?
I scoff at you, and I would also like to suggest that I am more of an expert of dice than you are.
There is no questioning the math. The question is the dice.
You are wrong in this case. A free bet on a craps table is absolutely theoretical .. even in a million rolls it only exists in theory.
And it's not the theory that is being questioned. It's the practice.
What say you? You know more about dice being fair than I? It sounds as if you imagine you do!
Quote: BuzzardThen he would have my money in his pocket, wouldn't he ?
No. One first has to realize if/how one is consistent, and go from there.
And, as it has been mentioned many times on this forum, such an edge would probably be a grind.
Quote: AhighI scoff at you, and I would also like to suggest that I am more of an expert of dice than you are. There is no questioning the math. The question is the dice. . . . You know more about dice being fair than I? It sounds as if you imagine you do!
Scoff all you please, but face the fact that you do not know much about actual state laws for dice, especially jurisdictions that just might be more careful than Nevada. Here are some specifications so we can see whether you are able to measure ten-thousandths of an inch with any so-called new and improved instruments.
NJAC 13:69E-1.15(a)6 specifies: "Have its weight equally distributed throughout the cube and no side of the cube heavier or lighter than any other side of the cube.
No. 8 specifies further: "Each spot shall be placed on the die by drilling into the surface of the cube and filling the drilled out portion with a compound which is equal in weight to the weight of the cellulose drilled out and which forms a permanent bond with the cellulose cube, and shall extend into the cube to an accuracy tolerance of .0004 of an inch."
--http://www.nj.gov/oag/ge/docs/Regulations/CHAPTER69E.pdf
Quote: tuppNo. One first has to realize if/how one is consistent, and go from there.
And, as it has been mentioned many times on this forum, such an edge would probably be a grind.
Most small edges are. Look at the blackjack counters.
Quote: boymimboThe only thing you can do to adjust your gains and losses is to change the size of your bet and the style of your bet to change your expected loss. Period.
Well, there is the extremely strong likelihood that somewhere along the line of those tens of thousands of bets that you will be ahead. That is the time for another "thing you can do to adjust your gains and losses." You can color up (or not) and walk away from the table.
Quote: boymimbo...
What you see on the table from the dice can be replicated by a random dice replicator on a computer.
Quote: boymimbo...Bull shit. Horse hockey, and what a load.
Quote: SanchoPanzaScoff all you please, but face the fact that you do not know much about actual state laws for dice, especially jurisdictions that just might be more careful than Nevada. Here are some specifications so we can see whether you are able to measure ten-thousandths of an inch with any so-called new and improved instruments.
NJAC 13:69E-1.15(a)6 specifies: "Have its weight equally distributed throughout the cube and no side of the cube heavier or lighter than any other side of the cube.
No. 8 specifies further: "Each spot shall be placed on the die by drilling into the surface of the cube and filling the drilled out portion with a compound which is equal in weight to the weight of the cellulose drilled out and which forms a permanent with the cellulose cube, and shall extend into the cube to an accuracy tolerance of .0004 of an inch."
--http://www.nj.gov/oag/ge/docs/Regulations/CHAPTER69E.pdf
Not the math, not the laws, but the actual dice. The dice and how they affect actual pays!
Random numbers and precision dice are models not realities.
Period! The reality is made to be as close to the model as possible.
The laws are in place to enforce adherence as closely to the model as possible.
Yet the outcomes of the cubes are not even recorded in a single casino that I know of.
Why are there no laws governing the distribution of outcomes allowable from a given stick of dice?
When there are no instruments to measure fair dice that I know of that work as well as the instruments that I have had created, I take the position as the expert on the subject.
As soon as someone else can tell better than I how balanced a newly manufactured die is, I'm here to tell you that free bets exist only in theory because each and every die that has ever been manufactured is not 100% random. Not a single one of them!
When the edge is 0.00%, the die is what creates the edge, not the math.
It is absolutely hilarious that anyone would disagree about this thinking that anything is so precise that just a million rolls makes it even instead of tracking the bias of the cube.
The only thing "random" is that there is no way for a player to know how each cube is biased. Yet every single one of them is.
By the way, for those following the Golden Nugget case of the pre-shuffled baccarat decks, that section of the statutes also specifically addresses what a casino must do and must not do with that product.