I didn't have a particularly eventful show last night. I accomplished the things I wanted to accomplish exploring the still photography system.
But all the work of putting this stuff together and dealing with all the stuff has me tired.
My bankroll is doing fine, but I think I may take a break for a week or two and just relax.
I'm not currently planning any further shows until the March 11th event. I couldn't change my mind, but just as a heads up, the next show is going to be the March 11th show.
I am also going to just be focusing on other things. I may do some motorcycle riding and some more things with the kids and the family for a while.
I just didn't want anyone thinking anything bad had happened, but I'll be taking a break for a while.
I am interested and open to meeting and playing craps with individuals in the casino (for fun, not to talk about dice control theory and what not).
I will also say that after meeting Harley and learning about Chi-squared, I may also want to try to look into exploiting bias from the cubes themselves if I can learn enough and/or prove that it is possible. Meeting Harley has been educational, and I think we may team up and do some things together if he's interested.
I also encourage others to get involved in the betting process. I would really prefer that SOOPOO, and the Wizard take control of this thread.
I have done about everything I can do to get ready for this event, and I'm ready a few weeks early. But I expect the others involved to not let me down and make sure that everyone is prepared for this event.
I will have my software set up to track and graph the rolls-to-seven ratios so that it's interactive as we go along.
Quote: AhighI expect SOOPOO, Nickolay, the Wizard, Tupp, and others to get involved in this thread.
Has the Wizard shown interest in this bet? Just asking.
If I can't make it, you have my deposit for the bet with Buzzard and for the shooter incentive.
Quote: tuppI postponed my Vegas job last week, in an attempt to reschedule it so that I can be at the March 11th show. I am optimistic that I will be able to do so, although I haven't yet heard back from my Vegas production connection.
If I can't make it, you have my deposit for the bet with Buzzard and for the shooter incentive.
Aaron wants me to 'take control of this thread'..... so.... I hope you can make it! As far as the Wiz, I believe he made a proposal to any alleged DI about rolling 7 times.... 0 7's the DI wins..... 1 7 it's a tie..... 2 7's the Wiz wins..... I do not believe that anyone has taken him up on his offer.... No surprise....
Quote: SOOPOOAaron wants me to 'take control of this thread'..... so.... I hope you can make it! As far as the Wiz, I believe he made a proposal to any alleged DI about rolling 7 times.... 0 7's the DI wins..... 1 7 it's a tie..... 2 7's the Wiz wins..... I do not believe that anyone has taken him up on his offer.... No surprise....
Harley has asked to come and wants to take up the Wizard on this offer I believe (pending verification).
I also want to take up the Wizard on his offer pending verification of the details.
Quote: AhighHarley has asked to come and wants to take up the Wizard on this offer I believe (pending verification).
I also want to take up the Wizard on his offer pending verification of the details.
This is great news! March 11 is looking like it will be quite a fun day! I will alert the Wiz....
Assuming a random shooter, the house edge is 5.11%. To be a fair bet, the shooter would need a seven probability of 15.69%, or 1 in 6.373 rolls. Assuming a rolls to sevens ratio of 6.5, the player edge would be 1.64%. Assuming a rolls to sevens ratio of 7, the player edge would be 7.64%.
However, March 11 is not going to be a good day for me, I'm afraid. May I ask what part of Vegas this event would take place in?
Quote: WizardMy offer is based on the roll of the dice seven times. We'll call it the Wizard bet. It pays 1 to 1 for zero sevens, a push on exactly one seven, and loses with two or more sevens.
Assuming a random shooter, the house edge is 5.11%. To be a fair bet, the shooter would need a seven probability of 15.69%, or 1 in 6.373 rolls. Assuming a rolls to sevens ratio of 6.5, the player edge would be 1.64%. Assuming a rolls to sevens ratio of 7, the player edge would be 7.64%.
However, March 11 is not going to be a good day for me, I'm afraid. May I ask what part of Vegas this event would take place in?
My house is in Southwest Las Vegas near Warm Springs and Durango (Rhodes Ranch if you are familiar with the area).
My ratio of sevens has historically been below 15.69%, so it sounds like a very fun challenge.
The outstanding questions are:
1) What are the limits for the amount of the bet you are willing to take?
2) Do I get to pick how much each time based on a confidence factor since you have the edge?
3) I assume that you are okay using dice that we both inspect as being mutually agreed upon as being fair by use of any instruments we both have available.
And yeah, I think Harley is interested too.
I think this may end up being quite a bit of fun.
As far as dates, I've already asked to have the 11th off from work, but I can probably change that date. It's more likely SOOPOO and Nickolay that would have a hard time changing dates.
I would also like to encourage you to lower the edge to something closer to 2.5% just to make it more exciting. I am more willing to bet more meaningful amounts of money the lower the edge is.
The compounded edge for me to turn $25 into $2000 or so with full pressure on the 10 is only 2.5%. So it seems pretty fair to me to ask you to come down on your numbers if you don't mind me asking you to do so to increase the excitement. I will still bet with what you've offered, but I wanted to make it INTERESTING and I will absolutely bet bigger the lower you can go on that edge.
It may end up being best to make a second event for me and Harley and you since I think we don't want to take away anything from the SOOPOO challenge and Nickolay deserves a LOT for stepping up to the plate.
Quote: AhighI would also like to encourage you to lower the edge to something closer to 2.5% just to make it more exciting. I am more willing to bet more meaningful amounts of money the lower the edge is.
To answer your questions.
1. I'd like to start with a max bet of $100. I would be open to going higher once some trust is established. This should be pay as you go too.
2. Yes, you may.
3. Do you have a caliper? I don't have any instruments to test the integrity of the dice. I'd like to either see a caliper or you may use gently cancelled casino dice.
Unfortunately, the 11th is just a bad day for me. I would entrust SOOPOO to book bets on my behalf, but only up to $20.
As far as sweetening the odds, can you tell what kind of rolls to sevens ratio you claim to be able to achieve, and we'll take it from there.
It fluctuates around 15.00% in general and I think it's above 15.00% right now. It was right at 14.97% around 2400 rolls.
About the balance, I will provide the tools, and I can demonstrate for you that the dice are fair. You need not provide anything, just want to assure you. This is more than a fair offer considering the casinos won't do this for you! With my tools, however, the dice may exhibit some unbalance simply because the tools I have had made are more precise than any others that I know of.
Quote: WizardAs far as sweetening the odds, I will pay 1.04, or 26 to 25, for zero sevens. This would have a house edge of 4.00% for a random shooter, and a player edge of 5.00% for a 15% sevens shooter. I'll entrust SOOPOO to book bets on my behalf of $25 (to win $26). I will also entrust SOOPOO to examine the caliper and dice.
Sounds like a damn fair deal, and similar encouragement to make a meaningful bet to buying the four and ten for a quarter. Well played! (IE: I am expecting all pays to round down to the nearest dollar just like at most tables!)
Quote: AhighSounds like a damn fair deal, and similar encouragement to make a meaningful bet to buying the four and ten for a quarter. Well played! (IE: I am expecting all pays to round down to the nearest dollar just like at most tables!)
I do not understand your comment on rounding down. I believe Mike is clear that he will allow me as his proxy to bet $26 against your $25, and that bet can be repeated as you wish. I will check with Mike, but I assume he will book any action at this event from any other 'DI' that shows up. I will also check with Mike if there is any loss limit that Mike would opt for. As far as me checking the dice, I am a tad uncomfortable with that. I would prefer that Mike supply me with a stack of dice that he has checked, and of course then you, Aaron, could check them before you roll em. I was comfortable with you, Aaron, selecting dice for the Nickolay challenge because then it was my money at risk, but when I am proxy for someone else's money I must adhere to a higher standard, and I have never checked dice before. Just like in the HB challenge, for my money I would have trusted Ann, but when I was entrusted to safeguard other forum members bets it became a higher standard to bear.
I can use any dice you want, but I don't want to use cancelled dice. I recommend that if the Wizard is concerned about fair dice, go and buy some clean unused dice from the gambler's general store and provide them. I'll cover half the cost if he wants to do that and I can check them out before use. They generally cost about $13 a stick, and I think the red ones might be $12 or $12.50.
If the Wizard is not concerned and trusts you to verify that the dice are fair, we will do that with dice I already have. I suspect he would trust you to verify that I am showing you the dice are fair before we begin.
It's worth noting that the dice will be certified as more fair than any casino I know of has the technology to do! So hopefully this is good enough! But no matter what we will use a fresh stick of dice that is verified as fair and not use that stick for more than two hours before replacing it.
Quote: SOOPOOThis is great news! March 11 is looking like it will be quite a fun day! ..
Good clean fun for all. Grass growing, paint drying, dice
throwing, its right up there in the major fun category..
Quote: EvenBobGood clean fun for all. Grass growing, paint drying, dice
throwing, its right up there in the major fun category..
Really? Wow. Just Wow. Thanks so much. You're just awesome. I know you put a lot of effort into that post. Thanks SO much!!! Really helps out.
And you know that goes for all you other guys out there who like to do this. I just appreciate it SO MUCH. THANK YOU ALL!
All that work. All that energy. And being so helpful and productive. It is just SO appreciated. Really. I mean that.
I have a special little place in my heart for all of you guys who have been like this for me. So there for me. So wonderfully caring for all the things I am doing.
It's just like a real family.
Have someone standing by with a note pad to list the result of each roll.
Should be more fun then doing it at home.
Quote: Ahigh
Really? Wow. Just Wow. Thanks so much. You're just awesome.
Thanks. I was going to post a sleeping alarm clock,
but this old guy paints a better picture. I like
him.
BAM!
Quote: MrVI've no dog in this "fight," but if I might make a constructive suggestion: do the test in a real casino, under real conditions.
Have someone standing by with a note pad to list the result of each roll.
Should be more fun then doing it at home.
Can't be on 'Ahigh TV' at the casino, Mr. V.
HOWEVER, I hate to put the POOPOO on SOOPOO, but does anyone at this event (or by agent) hold a Nevada nonrestricted Category D or provisional gaming license ? (NRS in general, NRS 463.160 Licenses required)
Quote: NRS 463.160 ...... unlawful for any person knowingly to permit any gambling game, ... or sports pool to be conducted, operated, dealt or carried on in any house or building or other premises owned by the person, in whole or in part, by a person who is not licensed ...
Furthermore,
Quote: NRS 463.409Approval by board of game operated by charitable organization; conditions; exceptions.
Except as otherwise provided in NRS 463.4091 to 463.40965, inclusive, the board may approve the operation of a game or games by a charitable or educational organization subject to such conditions and limitations as the board may impose, but no such approval shall be given by the board for the operation of a game or games for more than one event or function conducted or sponsored by one charitable or educational organization during any 1 calendar quarter.
https://www.leg.state.nv.us/NRS/NRS-463.html#NRS463Sec010
If the aforementioned becomes a concern, I would still like to accept the Wizard's Challenge in accordance with Nevada state craps laws without wager - I will roll the dice 15 times without a 7, or one 7 is a tie, two 7's the Wiz wins ...
Quote: HarleyNRS 463.160 ... NRS 463.409.
Lawyers are banned from the premises.
Is there *nothing* a lawyer can't ruin for everybody?
Quote: HarleyI will take the Wiz up on the Wizard Bet in accordance with Nevada state craps laws -- and I will raise the ante - I will roll the dice 15 times without a 7
HOWEVER, I hate to put the POOPOO on SOOPOO, but does anyone at this event (or by agent) hold a Nevada nonrestricted Category D or provisional gaming license ? (NRS in general, NRS 463.160 Licenses required)
.
.
.
Pretty sure all bets for this event are "under the table" so to speak.
The turd in the punchbowl for sure.
Quote:I would still like to [outroll everybody] without wager
WOW! What a Man!
Quote: odiousgambitI don't know what kind of person you have to be to put up a post like that.
The turd in the punchbowl for sure.Quote:I would still like to [outroll everybody] without wager
WOW! What a Man!
I learned shooting craps while in prison ... when one of your dice lands in the toilet, it becomes frustrating .... not to mention the lack of freedom to ride my Harley when I want to
...... so since this event is being televised and recorded for future evidence, I prefer to stay on the legal side of the game -- if no wager makes it legal, then I am your Man
I would rather be a Man, than a fool ...
If you want to prove your manhood, try reading NRS 22.060 (Acceptance of Wagers) and Nevada Regulation 21 (Live Braodcast) - then show up to the Wizard's televised Challenge and make a wager
Any lawyers on the board that can tell us what we can and can't do, speak up now.
I would be okay with just receiving WOV points or having WOV points deducted from my zero balance of WOV points (giving me a negative balance) and keep track of those as permanent units.
It might even make more sense than using money to have WOV points anyway.
IE: I definitely don't need Michael's money and I'm pretty sure that Harley is stating that it's not worth the money: the risk of running afoul of the law.
I appreciate Harley's input as I definitely have NO interest in going to jail over something this stupid if someone chose to prosecute me for being ignorant of the law.
Quote: AhighAny lawyers on the board that can tell us what we can and can't do, speak up now.
NRS 463.160 Licenses required; unlawful to permit certain gaming activities to be conducted without license; exceptions.
1. Except as otherwise provided in subsection 4 and NRS 463.172, it is unlawful for any person, either as owner, lessee or employee, whether for hire or not, either solely or in conjunction with others:
(a) To deal, operate, carry on, conduct, maintain or expose for play in the State of Nevada any gambling game, gaming device, inter-casino linked system, slot machine, race book or sports pool.
Oh, BTW: "Ignorantia juris non excusat."
Book em, Danno.
I would prefer we just play a game and keep score rather than making bets just to keep things simple.
I spent some time explaining to the Wizard that the whole thing is for entertainment to me anyway, and I think I would prefer this.
Today, I took $35 to $350 at the M. $350 isn't a lot of money, but I felt like a super-star the way that I took that money up. Many would say it would be more significant if it were $350 to $3500, but it's the same game as 10x is 10x is 10x. Money does not make the feat any more or less of an accomplishment to me. The ability to perform the feat is what I am primarily interested in.
IE: I prefer it to just be a game, and wagering real money isn't going to prove anything, nor do I personally need the money.
As far as the Wizard's opinion, which he gave to me face to face recently, we may have to agree to disagree. I don't need money problems right now. End of story!
I think Harley is also just interested in the game aspect of it, so let's just keep it clean. If anyone takes any bets related to this event it is not approved nor sanctioned by me, my homestead or anyone representing me and I do not want to know ANYTHING about it. What you do in your own privacy with your own friends that nobody knows about is your own business, but let's just keep it clean everything!
Thanks to the lawyers and those in the know on the laws for helping steer our members out of harms way. It is very appreciated!
ALRIGHT THEN!
Quote: MrV
1. Except as otherwise provided in subsection 4 and NRS 463.172, it is unlawful for any person, .
Taking real bets in your home on a real craps
table without a gaming license? I say go for it,
in a lot of states you can't even have a real craps
table in your home.
Quote: IbeatyouracesIf I'm reading Nevada law correct from this thread, they are one of those states.
I concur.
Indeed, the possession and use of a craps table in one's own home would seem to be illegal:
"it is unlawful for any person... as owner,...(a) To deal, operate, carry on, conduct, maintain or expose for play in the State of Nevada any gambling game, gaming device..."
Quote: MrVmaintain or expose for play in the State of Nevada any gambling game, gaming device..."
Its illegal in every state, I think. I know it is in MI
where I live.
But seriously, if I live in Nevada I deal myself a pai gow hand with a deck of cards, am I breaking the law?
Quote: EvenBobIn a lot of states you can't even have a real craps table in your home.
What would some of those states be? Do they include California?
Quote: HarleyIf the aforementioned becomes a concern, I would still like to accept the Wizard's Challenge in accordance with Nevada state craps laws without wager - I will roll the dice 15 times without a 7, or one 7 is a tie, two 7's the Wiz wins ...
I will take you up on that non bet. Perhaps we will go out to lunch or dinner afterward. Perhaps the loser will treat the winner to said meal. Perhaps if it is a tie we will repeat the non bet. Looking forward to meeting you, Harley!
http://www.irs.gov/Businesses/Small-Businesses-&-Self-Employed/Frequently-Asked-Questions-on-Gift-Taxes
Quote: MrVI concur.
Indeed, the possession and use of a craps table in one's own home would seem to be illegal:
"it is unlawful for any person... as owner,...(a) To deal, operate, carry on, conduct, maintain or expose for play in the State of Nevada any gambling game, gaming device..."
I disagree. The physical craps table itself is neither a "gaming device" (see NRS 463.0155) nor a "gambling game" (see NRS 463.0152, specifically requiring that the game be played "for money, property, checks, credit or any representative of value"). Craps played for money (whether on a dice table or not) is clearly illegal in an unlicensed setting, but there doesn't appear to be any prohibition on owning the table itself.
Otherwise, we should all be concerned about owning a deck of cards, a pair of dice, a chip collection, or even a keno crayon.
But no, don't go to AHigh's house and play craps for real money on his dice table. That's a bad idea.
Of course, putting on my Devil's Advocate hat, one could argue that the "how many 7s can I roll" proposition isn't actually a real money bet "on the dice table," but rather "regarding the dice table." Are there laws against making prop bets on golf shots in Nevada? Or bowling? If not, the dice throwing challenge may be of a similar nature.
I concur with MathExtremist - IMO, it is ok to own a table or dice in Nevada, it's what you do with that table that may be unlawful ..... reminds me of the private craps games in old Europe -- whenever there was a police raid, 1 person was in charge of swallowing the dice ... so at AHigh's house, who is in charge of swallowing the dice evidence ? .... and the internet streaming video ?
It's like having a blackjack table but playing War, but for money.
Quote: IbeatyouracesIt wouldn't matter. They'd wait for you to, pun intended, crap them out.
Post of the month.
That is, unless one of the participants' FATHER IS THE DISTRICT ATTORNEY!!
(10 points for getting that reference).
If this were to go to court, which of course it won't, it would be very obvious that these are all very friendly wagers and nobody is making enough money to even go through the trouble of a jury selection to think any more about it.
This is all a game for fun as far as I am concerned, and nobody is taking advantage of anybody. I hope that Tupp is able to make it, because I still don't have the ATEM Television Studio 100% figured out yet. I need to figure out upstream keying soon.
If there are any other people interested to help out on March 11th, please let me know. I think I could use another person interested to come if you could do a little to make things go smoothly.
Quote: AhighI hope that Tupp is able to make it, because I still don't have the ATEM Television Studio 100% figured out yet. I need to figure out upstream keying soon.
I am going to be in Vegas on March 11th. However, I am afraid have very little experience with video switchers, and I am completely unfamiliar with the Blackmagic ATEM set-up. But I would love to learn!
By the way, I looked through the thread and I could not find the starting time for the event. What time of day is it happening?