thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
• Posts: 5936
February 7th, 2013 at 6:13:14 PM permalink
Are you saying the don't come has more variance than the come? Hence the pass has more variance than the don't pass?
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
• Posts: 5195
February 7th, 2013 at 8:04:42 PM permalink
No I'm saying the pass line and the don't pass line have the same variance.

But if you bet a come or DC if the only bet you have on the table is a line bet (pass or don't), and look at that strategy, it has less variance than the don't line alone.

The reason is that any time you have a box number followed by a seven on the comeout, you get a push. this condition happens frequently enough that the bets are not completely independent of one another, and that effect lowers the variance (because for at least one roll, you have two bets that win based on opposite conditions).

The variance of a pass line plus one come bet is the same as the variance of a don't pass plus one DC bet.

But the line alone has more variance than the pass line plus one come, and the don't pass line alone has more variance that the don't pass plus one DC bet.

IE: You are more likely to lose due to the house edge with lower variance, but you are also more likely to last longer losing.

If you have your own edge, you're more likely to win by adding in one additional come or DC bet for the same reason. If you have an edge, you want to kill variance.

This is my perspective anyway. But of course I could be wrong as I haven't arrived at this using any other means besides looking at charts and from experience playing.

On the DO side, betting a come after the point is established without any odds is just "PSO protection" using craps terminology (PSO referring to the dreaded point-seven-out that max odds betters fear).
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