Buzzard
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
• Posts: 6814
January 25th, 2013 at 10:58:10 AM permalink
I have just received a PM from Hot Blonde saying that she agrees With me !
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
RaleighCraps
Joined: Feb 20, 2010
• Posts: 2501
January 25th, 2013 at 3:00:12 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

I have just received a PM from Hot Blonde saying that she agrees With me !

Uh oh! Divulging contents of a PM? We all know what that means.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
Wizard

Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 23318
January 25th, 2013 at 3:46:36 PM permalink
SOOPOO suggested I poke my head into this thread. Forgive me for just jumping to the end without reading it. He said there is a challenge that ahigh can roll under 30.5 sevens in 200 rolls. I calculate the probability of achieving this is 30.0741318%. I hear the going line is laying 2 to 1 against. I'm willing to make that bet against trustworthy forum members.

I'm also willing to attend the event, assuming it is already going to be well attended, and serve as a judge if requested. I can also supply regulation casino dice upon request.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
AcesAndEights
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
• Posts: 4299
January 25th, 2013 at 3:54:13 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

SOOPOO suggested I poke my head into this thread. Forgive me for just jumping to the end without reading it. He said there is a challenge that ahigh can roll under 30.5 sevens in 200 rolls. I calculate the probability of achieving this is 30.0741318%. I hear the going line is laying 2 to 1 against. I'm willing to make that bet against trustworthy forum members.

I'm also willing to attend the event, assuming it is already going to be well attended, and serve as a judge if requested. I can also supply regulation casino dice upon request.

I think you missed a little bit in the skimming. The challenge will take place on Ahigh's craps rig, but the roller will be nickolay411.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
AcesAndEights
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
• Posts: 4299
January 25th, 2013 at 4:04:54 PM permalink
I totally missed (or forgot, it was late) the fact that this is a 2-to-1 bet, which makes it extra juicy! For this to be a break-even bet for nickolay411, he would need to exhibit around 14.23% sevens, which is a pretty low number. Even at even money, SOOPOO would figure to come out ahead, given the stakes. WOW!
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
• Posts: 8108
January 25th, 2013 at 4:17:10 PM permalink
Thanks for joining Mike!
The bet is between me and Nickolay.
I believe there is also a side bet between tupp and Buzzard.
Aaron is supplying his table and recording equipment, and is planning on broadcasting the event live.
Nickolay has stated that he is already maxed out on his bets, so that will not be an option for you.
However, Aaron has posted that he recently has had success at keeping his 7's numbers under 15%.
Perhaps you can convince Aaron to also make the attempt, and to put up a few dollars in wagers on such.
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
• Posts: 5152
January 25th, 2013 at 4:19:20 PM permalink
Yeah, I'll work out a bet with the Wizard for sure. I know we can come to some sort of agreement on something that's fair.

I'll hammer out the details with the Wiz on the thread here, but it sounds like what he has suggested is pretty reasonable at a glance.

Thanks for joining in, Wiz! It will be fun!
AcesAndEights
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
• Posts: 4299
January 25th, 2013 at 4:28:22 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Yeah, I'll work out a bet with the Wizard for sure. I know we can come to some sort of agreement on something that's fair.

I'll hammer out the details with the Wiz on the thread here, but it sounds like what he has suggested is pretty reasonable at a glance.

Thanks for joining in, Wiz! It will be fun!

Work out a bet on the existing 200 rolls, or work out a separate bet between you and the Wizard for your own rolls? Sorry, unclear.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
Wizard

Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 23318
January 25th, 2013 at 4:45:04 PM permalink
I'll bet anybody on earth that he/she can't roll sevens with a probability under 1/6, assuming I perceive an advantage worthy of my bother, regulation table, dice, and throw, and I trust I'll be paid if I win (thus ruling out betting with keyser).

Here is an idea. If ahigh, or anybody, believes he can roll sevens with a probability under 15% then I'll book the following wager based on seven rolls of the dice:

Roll 0 sevens: Pays even money
Roll 1 seven: Push
Roll 2 or more sevens: Loss

Assuming a seven probability of 15% this wager would have a 3.72% advantage. We can repeat this over and over, as long as both parties agree.

By the way, the break-even seven probability would be 15.69%. As long as ahigh can beat that, he has an advantage.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
CrapsForever
Joined: Mar 6, 2012
• Posts: 517
January 25th, 2013 at 6:49:49 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I'll bet anybody on earth that he/she can't roll sevens with a probability under 1/6, assuming I perceive an advantage worthy of my bother, regulation table, dice, and throw, and I trust I'll be paid if I win (thus ruling out betting with keyser).

Here is an idea. If ahigh, or anybody, believes he can roll sevens with a probability under 15% then I'll book the following wager based on seven rolls of the dice:

Roll 0 sevens: Pays even money
Roll 1 seven: Push
Roll 2 or more sevens: Loss

Assuming a seven probability of 15% this wager would have a 3.72% advantage. We can repeat this over and over, as long as both parties agree.

By the way, the break-even seven probability would be 15.69%.

Next time you or anyone else willing to book a bet like this who is going to be in the South Florida area; Send me a PM.

I will also book ANY worthwhile bets stating that my Horn % is not higher than random.

I will also book ANY worthwhile bets stating that my Hard 4 % is not higher than random.

All bets will be based on a 12 Foot Regulation Craps table with brand new casino dice. No filming/photography of the shooter but feedback to the forum will be strongly advised/appreciated.
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!