AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
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January 24th, 2013 at 4:44:18 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

It's probably a no-go then because I really only want free bets.

It's not that I am scared of losing, just that I already take free bets with the casino.

In other words, just betting odds over and over and over is effectively the same way to profit from rolling fewer sevens, and I already have a way to do that, and yet I don't actually take odds that often.

We can hold off until there's a better understanding that we are in agreement for the terms, but it sounds like you're thinking I am willing to say I have a 50/50 chance to roll 15% or fewer sevens.

What I'm saying is I would be willing to bet a very large sum of money that I can roll less than 16.67% sevens, and I'll pay a little bit more if I lose that you have to pay if I win.

In general, the reason I am not willing to do anything besides betting I can do better than random is because I already have those bets available here in Vegas since I'm a local, and I don't have much incentive to bet that bet except to take an unnecessary risk that I don't perform as well as I have performed in the past.

I hope it all makes sense. If I come across as sounding less than confident that I can continue to roll 15% sevens, then that's okay, because I'm _not_ confident it will continue!


Okay, I'm starting to understand the disconnect between you and SOOPOO now. So for any bet, you really want the over-under to be the exact (or close to exact) 1/6 number, and for your winning conditions to be under that number of sevens. Is that correct? The reason that I (or anyone) would be less inclined to take that bet is that it is far more likely to happen randomly, of course! I understand you are willing to give up more on your side of the action to compensate. We may yet be able to compromise, given that additional variable.

But let me make clarify something: ideally, the bet would not be a 50/50 proposition for you (i.e. a "free bet"). Ideally we would calibrate it such that you would have a > 50% chance of winning given your influence. I suggested the 15% number since that's what you cited from your past roll data, but that's not set in stone. 15.5% would still be a bias, as would even 16% (I'm not sure what bias is required to beat the house edge, I just sold my 2 dice control books). I'm not trying to waste your time, I promise. I'm trying to test a claim of dice bias. Depending on where we set the line, it could be under the exact 1/6 amount, and still give you a >50% chance of winning assuming some tiny amount of bias.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
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January 24th, 2013 at 5:08:13 PM permalink
Okay, fooling around in LibreOffice Calc (i.e. Excel for Linux nerds :p) with the binomial distribution. Here are just some random proposals - not necessarily to you, Ahigh! But just some ideas for any dice-influence challenges in the future.

Say you have a shooter who claims 16% sevens (a very small bias). In a sample of 1008 throws, set the over-under at 164.5 sevens. The shooter (again, assuming the bias to be true), would have a 61.24% chance of hitting the under (164 or fewer sevens). The challenger (again, assuming no bias) would have a 61.30% chance of hitting the over (165 or more sevens). That's about the best you can get as far as giving each party a similar perceived probability of winning a straight bet.

To get the percentages higher, you either need more claimed bias or a longer trial. Here are a few more examples

For the same shooter with a 16% claimed 7 percentage but a 2016 throw trial, set the over-under at 329.5. This gives the shooter a 66.54% chance and the challenger a 64.9% chance. Still pretty good.

Instead, go back to the 1008 trial but take a shooter with 15.5% claimed 7s. Now move the over-under down to 162.5. Harder to line it up exactly now, but this gives the challenger a 67.63% shot, and the shooter a 70.94% shot. Move it to 161.5 and they nearly flip, giving the challenger a 70.63% shot, and the shooter a 67.93% shot.

Anyway, just brainstorming. People who are way better at stats than me, please poke holes in my methodology :)
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
Buzzard
Buzzard
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
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January 24th, 2013 at 5:29:57 PM permalink
I will take 5 to 1 that whatever you want, 7's, hardways, whatever, that I can beat you . Even with my total inexperience. Just how good a dice setter do you think you are ?
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Buzzard
Buzzard
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
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January 25th, 2013 at 8:41:17 AM permalink
Hey. post something somebody. I got $100 invested in this thread LOL
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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January 25th, 2013 at 8:53:08 AM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

I will take 5 to 1 that whatever you want, 7's, hardways, whatever, that I can beat you . Even with my total inexperience. Just how good a dice setter do you think you are ?



Careful Buzz..... Choose your words carefully! I'l bet you cannot BEAT me (not tie me) in a one roll contest for who can roll the most boxcars......
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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January 25th, 2013 at 9:03:20 AM permalink
I rolled boxcars back-to-back three times in a row two days ago at Fiesta.
MakingBook
MakingBook
Joined: Sep 19, 2011
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January 25th, 2013 at 9:11:37 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

I rolled boxcars back-to-back three times in a row two days ago at Fiesta.



If PaigowDan was there, he would have back-roomed you.
"I am a man devoured by the passion for gambling." --Dostoevsky, 1871
tupp
tupp
Joined: Feb 9, 2012
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January 25th, 2013 at 9:18:28 AM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

Okay, fooling around in LibreOffice Calc (i.e. Excel for Linux nerds :p)

LibreOffice works just as well in Windows and Mac OSX. I prefer it over its proprietary counterparts.
Ahigh
Ahigh
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January 25th, 2013 at 9:22:26 AM permalink
Quote: MakingBook

If PaigowDan was there, he would have back-roomed you.



The first boxcar, I had $6 coming. The next one I had $25 coming. The next one I had $50 coming.

I ended up making $25 on the entire roll, but those boxcars didn't help.

It's not like I am a horn better!!!
Buzzard
Buzzard
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
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January 25th, 2013 at 9:30:43 AM permalink
So you will lay me the 5 to 1 odds then. We have a bet sir. I expect you not to weasel out.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet

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