sodawater
sodawater
Joined: May 14, 2012
  • Threads: 64
  • Posts: 3321
January 23rd, 2013 at 7:37:51 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

The over under would be 16.67%
If it were a regular sportsbook you would have to lay $110 to win $100, regardless if you selected over or under.



careful, median is not the same as mean. over/under should be based on median
tupp
tupp
Joined: Feb 9, 2012
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 519
January 23rd, 2013 at 7:40:11 PM permalink
Okay. Buzzard and I have a bet.

To repeat for clarity, I am betting $100 with a 1:1 payoff that nickolay411 (the shooter) will roll 15% or fewer sevens.

So, for instance, if nickolay411 throws 200 times and rolls 31 or more sevens, Buzzard wins $100. By the same token, if he throws 200 times and rolls 30 or fewer sevens, I win $100. Likewise, if he throws 100 times and rolls 15 or fewer sevens, I win $100 -- 16 or more sevens and Buzzard wins $100.

If nickolay411 doesn't go through with the trial for some reason, then the bet is off, unless we agree on a new shooter.

I don't have Paypal, but I might be in Vegas next week. If Ahigh would be so kind as to accept my $100 in-person and hold it for the trial, I will post the receipt in this thread for verification.

Now, I hope that we have at least established the fact that those of us who believe in the possibility of dice influencing do not hesitate to "put our money where our mouths are."
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
  • Threads: 111
  • Posts: 3866
January 23rd, 2013 at 7:45:52 PM permalink
Quote: tupp

Okay. Buzzard and I have a bet.

To repeat for clarity, I am betting $100 with a 1:1 payoff that nickolay411 (the shooter) will roll 15% or fewer sevens.



I just want to say this again, even if no one else takes notice. I feel as though I have to put this on the record:

Even if any of these bets are won or lost -- not one of these bets nor all of them combined will help to prove or disprove dice influencing or dice control. These tests of making or avoiding certain numbers of hard ways, or hitting spots on a table, don't address dice control or dice influencing at all. They are actually just "side bets" about particular events.

But I do wish those on either side of these bets good luck. And I really mean "good luck" because they won't be a measure of dice control. LOL
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 112
  • Posts: 8094
January 23rd, 2013 at 7:52:12 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

careful, median is not the same as mean. over/under should be based on median



No care needed, sodawater. The over under on any number divisible by 6 would be 1/6 of that number. If I am incorrect give me an example...
sodawater
sodawater
Joined: May 14, 2012
  • Threads: 64
  • Posts: 3321
January 23rd, 2013 at 8:13:23 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

No care needed, sodawater. The over under on any number divisible by 6 would be 1/6 of that number. If I am incorrect give me an example...



ok, well, take 6 rolls.

the expected number of 7s is 1.

But if you offer over/under on number of 7s in 6 rolls I am gonna crush you by taking over 1 for even money.
sodawater
sodawater
Joined: May 14, 2012
  • Threads: 64
  • Posts: 3321
January 23rd, 2013 at 8:27:35 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

No care needed, sodawater. The over under on any number divisible by 6 would be 1/6 of that number. If I am incorrect give me an example...



also.. in your example, 16.67 out of 100. 100 is not evenly divisible by 6. So in that case making the over/under 16.67 is the equivalent of making it 16.5

Just like in one roll, the mean 7s is 0.167 but if you make that the over/under, under is going to dominate.
Buzzard
Buzzard
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
  • Threads: 90
  • Posts: 6814
January 23rd, 2013 at 8:40:07 PM permalink
Can I assume that before the first roll, there will be an agreement whether he will roll 100 or 200 times ?
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
sodawater
sodawater
Joined: May 14, 2012
  • Threads: 64
  • Posts: 3321
January 23rd, 2013 at 8:40:38 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

Can I assume that before the first roll, there will be an agreement whether he will roll 100 or 200 times ?



my bet with him is already down for 200 rolls so i assume it will be 200
Buzzard
Buzzard
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
  • Threads: 90
  • Posts: 6814
January 23rd, 2013 at 8:43:07 PM permalink
I thought that also, but then there is this :

" Likewise, if he throws 100 times and rolls 15 or fewer sevens, I win $100 -- 16 or more sevens and Buzzard wins $100. "

I am fine with either number of rolls, just need to know the number !
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
nickolay411
nickolay411
Joined: Sep 7, 2011
  • Threads: 12
  • Posts: 279
January 23rd, 2013 at 8:45:56 PM permalink
To clarify. The trail will go on. :)

And I am still rolling 200X.

Get em bets in!

  • Jump to: