do I have an advantage on Dont' Pass with this point promotion ?
December 5th, 2012 at 10:16:56 AM
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I'm wondering about the definition re: HouseEdge on Don't Pass (with regards to per bet resolved HE 1.40% -- versus -- per roll HE 0.40%). Can someone please idiot proof this definition for me?
My local shop has video craps with point multiplier days that are +1.00 %, so I want to confirm if I'm only playing the don't pass, taking full odds, then adding in Don't come each time, taking full odds on those), will that put the game positive?
Is it: (HE 0.4% playing this way) + (1% points for cash back) = +0.6 to player
or is it: (HE 1.4% playing this way) + (1% points for cash back) = -0.4 to player
There is no other game in house that is above 99% for any advantage play, as VP and Video Blackjack are excluded.
Thank you for advice.
My local shop has video craps with point multiplier days that are +1.00 %, so I want to confirm if I'm only playing the don't pass, taking full odds, then adding in Don't come each time, taking full odds on those), will that put the game positive?
Is it: (HE 0.4% playing this way) + (1% points for cash back) = +0.6 to player
or is it: (HE 1.4% playing this way) + (1% points for cash back) = -0.4 to player
There is no other game in house that is above 99% for any advantage play, as VP and Video Blackjack are excluded.
Thank you for advice.
December 5th, 2012 at 10:56:28 AM
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Quote: multipointdaysIs it: (HE 0.4% playing this way) + (1% points for cash back) = +0.6 to player
or is it: (HE 1.4% playing this way) + (1% points for cash back) = -0.4 to player
That is the real question, which likely no one here will be able to answer (unless you mention the specific casino and someone is familiar with their procedures).
In general, at traditional craps, the casino will NOT rate your odds bets for comp purposes. I have heard that a lot of e-craps machines will rate ALL money in action, but limit odds to 2x or something small, and also many casinos do NOT extend promotions (like your +1% promo) to the craps machines. If I remember correctly, the bubble craps machines at M-Life properties don't generate ANY comps at all...but I could be mistaken on that.
So really, you should just ask. Or better yet, experiment and see, because if you ask and they overlooked the +EV opportunity, they will likely remove it.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
December 5th, 2012 at 11:11:35 AM
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Every machine I've seen counts the bets per resolution. So it would be 1.36%. It would only be +EV if some amount of odds were counted as well.
And do NOT ask them, in case it is a +EV opportunity that they overlooked. Figure it out yourself through trial and error to see if odds count or not. Should be quick and easy to do if you know the comp rate at the machine ($xxx coin-in per point).
And do NOT ask them, in case it is a +EV opportunity that they overlooked. Figure it out yourself through trial and error to see if odds count or not. Should be quick and easy to do if you know the comp rate at the machine ($xxx coin-in per point).
December 5th, 2012 at 2:57:22 PM
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The easy way to answer that question is to put your card in, make a $1 bet, and count the rolls. See if you get $1 worth of loyalty points vs. $1 x # rolls worth of loyalty points. I'm guessing it's the former.
But if you get credit for odds handle, you're still ahead. Laying even 2x odds on don't pass has a total edge under 0.5%, so if you're getting +1% back you're ahead by half a point without doing any thinking. Bet max and have a few drinks.
I'd expect either (a) no comp credit at all, period, or (b) comp credit only for line bets, not odds. In that case, it's your second scenario above.
But if you get credit for odds handle, you're still ahead. Laying even 2x odds on don't pass has a total edge under 0.5%, so if you're getting +1% back you're ahead by half a point without doing any thinking. Bet max and have a few drinks.
I'd expect either (a) no comp credit at all, period, or (b) comp credit only for line bets, not odds. In that case, it's your second scenario above.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
December 5th, 2012 at 4:15:04 PM
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Quote: jc2286Every machine I've seen counts the bets per resolution. So it would be 1.36%. It would only be +EV if some amount of odds were counted as well.
Maryland Live is per resolution.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
December 6th, 2012 at 12:24:33 AM
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Quote: ahiromuMaryland Live is per resolution.
Ha! I should have bet somebody that a trip to that outfit was coming. How has it gone so far [or have I missed your report?]
Initially they were generous with free play, allowing me to claim to be an AP [g]. Did you get in on any of that?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
December 7th, 2012 at 5:22:10 AM
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Thanks for all the replies. I'll check out the casino rating system and post back here later.
December 7th, 2012 at 6:55:03 AM
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Quote: odiousgambitHa! I should have bet somebody that a trip to that outfit was coming. How has it gone so far [or have I missed your report?]
Initially they were generous with free play, allowing me to claim to be an AP [g]. Did you get in on any of that?
I didn't do any math or play for a significant amount of time (Hit and run sessions) - I have yet to receive anything. They have those little monitors so you can see when your points go up, I noticed my points going up per resolution. Admittedly though, I never checked to see if I received more points for longer rolls and the such.
Oh I never wrote a report, was bored one day and drove 45 minutes to play there for like 20.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
December 8th, 2012 at 12:22:03 PM
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If you play the right side and take 3x4x5x odds, the house edge will be 0.34% on your total action. With a 1.00% multiplier, you'll be playing with a 0.66% advantage, which is nice when you can get a lot of money in play. Be prepared for a lot of variance. I've done similar plays on machines here in Vegas, but they are rare to find (most machines don't give points).
If you can play don't pass and they give points for the odds, you should play that as you'll earn more.
If you can play don't pass and they give points for the odds, you should play that as you'll earn more.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
December 9th, 2012 at 8:33:29 AM
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The test shows that only line bets receive loyalty points (at .1% rate) for initial bet only, not earning loyalty points per roll. Odds bets do not receive loyalty points.
On the 10x points days the e-craps do receive the 10x rate (but yes, VP is excluded).
On the 10x points days the e-craps do receive the 10x rate (but yes, VP is excluded).
December 9th, 2012 at 8:41:48 AM
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Quote: teddysIf you play the right side and take 3x4x5x odds, the house edge will be 0.34% on your total action. With a 1.00% multiplier, you'll be playing with a 0.66% advantage, which is nice when you can get a lot of money in play. Be prepared for a lot of variance. I've done similar plays on machines here in Vegas, but they are rare to find (most machines don't give points).
If you can play don't pass and they give points for the odds, you should play that as you'll earn more.
Thank you the above reply - but to idiot proof this for me:
are you saying that if I place 1 bet on the pass line, then take 3x4x5x odds, and place no other bets, then roll out until the point hits or a 7 is rolled, the casino has a 0.34% edge?
If so, then with the 1% points day, I'll indeed have a strong edge.
December 9th, 2012 at 10:01:20 AM
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Quote: multipointdaysThank you the above reply - but to idiot proof this for me:
are you saying that if I place 1 bet on the pass line, then take 3x4x5x odds, and place no other bets, then roll out until the point hits or a 7 is rolled, the casino has a 0.34% edge?
If so, then with the 1% points day, I'll indeed have a strong edge.
But that'd only be true if they give 1% on the odds, too.
Otherwise it'd be like playing 1.41-1%=.41% edge against your original bet, with free odds. The overall edge would be tiny, but existent.
Like people said, try a test to find out if odds count towards the 1%. If they do, you can get an edge.
December 9th, 2012 at 11:22:15 AM
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He already tested. Odds don't get counted for player points. So 10x point days are just less -EV than normal.
December 9th, 2012 at 11:46:36 AM
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Quote: tringlomaneHe already tested. Odds don't get counted for player points. So 10x point days are just less -EV than normal.
Thanks across the board to all the replies. I'll only worry about playing the ecraps on 10x days if there is also an overlapping cash drawings with play to earn entries. It's a pretty small shop so I can get easily earn enough entries to compensate for the -EV drop on the ecraps and win many drawings.
December 13th, 2012 at 12:06:53 PM
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Let me rephrase my original question so to not mix in anything re: multi-point days, that if the casino uses no player cards at all,
Isn't it saying at the page bottom of the WizOdds chart under strategy, betting pass line only, taking 3x4x5x free odds, HE drops to .374
Example
And likewise the don't pass HE drops to .281
Isn't it saying at the page bottom of the WizOdds chart under strategy, betting pass line only, taking 3x4x5x free odds, HE drops to .374
Example
And likewise the don't pass HE drops to .281
December 13th, 2012 at 12:51:21 PM
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Quote: multipointdaysIsn't it saying at the page bottom of the WizOdds chart under strategy, betting pass line only, taking 3x4x5x free odds, HE drops to .374
Example
The WoO table shows the combined house edge and that is for the bet resolved.
And likewise,The WoO table shows the combined house edgeQuote: multipointdaysAnd likewise the don't pass HE drops to .281
In order to USE the CHE, to figure out the EV for example (expected loss) one needs to know the average bet.
I bet you do not know what the average bet IS for example $10 and always taking 345X odds or laying the 6X to win the 345X.
One has to figure it out.
Don't average bet 345X odds = Flat bet * 5
example: ($10 * 5 = $50 average bet)
Do average bet for 345X odds = Flat bet * (34/9)
example: ($10 * 34/9 = 340/9 = $37.78)
example: ($10 * 5 = $50 average bet)
Do average bet for 345X odds = Flat bet * (34/9)
example: ($10 * 34/9 = 340/9 = $37.78)
It is SO much easier to just say over 100 such resolved bets with MAX odds
the pass line EV taking 345X odds is: $10 * 100 * (-7/495) = -$14.14
instead of
$37.78 (avg bet) * 100 * -.00374 = -$14.13
(Now we have also added in some rounding errors by using numbers that have been rounded, yuck,,,)
the Don't bet EV Laying max odds is: $10 * 100 * (-27/1925) = -$14.03
Variance was purposely left out of this discussion because
No one, LOL, EVER loses or wins, LOL, more or less than $14, LOL over 100 such bets, LOL
More Good Luck
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
December 19th, 2012 at 2:52:33 PM
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Thank you 7craps for the details as your EV reply is very clear, and I just have a follow-up question.
I just want to confirm if the .281 CHE refers to both of the following approaches:
a -- placing 1 Don't Pass bet, then laying full odds, and rolling out until the point or 7 hits
b -- placing 1 DP with laying full odds, then continuously placing Don't Come and laying full odds on each DC bet, and rolling until the point or 7 hits
If the CHE is the same playing either way, then I know the main issue to consider is the huge variance with these 2 approaches, but I'll be able to absorb most of that concern on the bonus point multiplier days and casino cash drawings. My bankroll can cover either a or b approach, so that's not a main issue for me.
Thanks for any replies.
I just want to confirm if the .281 CHE refers to both of the following approaches:
a -- placing 1 Don't Pass bet, then laying full odds, and rolling out until the point or 7 hits
b -- placing 1 DP with laying full odds, then continuously placing Don't Come and laying full odds on each DC bet, and rolling until the point or 7 hits
If the CHE is the same playing either way, then I know the main issue to consider is the huge variance with these 2 approaches, but I'll be able to absorb most of that concern on the bonus point multiplier days and casino cash drawings. My bankroll can cover either a or b approach, so that's not a main issue for me.
Thanks for any replies.
