Is there such a concept of "advantage play" at craps that tells you to avoid cold tables?
Was this an original thought or are you guilty of plagiarizing John Patrick ?
Quote: TinhornGamblerSOOPOO
From your posts I sense that you have a dim view that Craps can be beaten, no matter what.
I guess it is just my imagination that I see player’s WINNING.
The house advantage did this … how can that be.
I believe you views are negative toward craps, and are expressed in terms that highlight the casino’s advantage over the reality of the game … where you do have a chance to WIN short term regardless of the house advantage toll.
If I’m going into a game and the dealer say’s its been cold or it’s dumping, I do not fight the issue. I rather rationalize that the momentum will continue.
It’s better than your scenario quote " … So there is nothing to take 'advantage' of. A table may have been cold, but at the moment you start, the 'coldness' or hotness' of the table is yet to be determined. If you believe the previous rolls will make the next rolls more likely to win, then I can't help.”
WOW …. You can’t help me because playing without some sort of direction is like I coulda, maybe I shoulda yeah if I only woulda.
Either you bet with the dice, against the dice. or sit on the side lines and don’t play.
The long term math indicates craps has some of the best bets in the casino, you can look at the negatives, but I’m looking at the positives.
If you use a phrase like 'the momentum will continue', you believe that a roll in the past will affect the next roll. You are just plain wrong. Until you realize that the next roll is INDEPENDANT of all past rolls no one will be able to help you understand.....
I NEVER said a player can't win at craps. The house edge on many craps bets is small, and, depending on how you bet, you could have a NEARLY 50% of winning. Random bettor that I am, I won my last two times at the tables. I stand by my comment, and anyone who understands the math behind craps can confirm, THERE ARE NO ADVANTAGE PLAYS at a craps table.
Quote: TinhornGamblerSOOPOO
From your posts I sense that you have a dim view that Craps can be beaten, no matter what.
I guess it is just my imagination that I see player’s WINNING.
The house advantage did this … how can that be.
I believe you views are negative toward craps, and are expressed in terms that highlight the casino’s advantage over the reality of the game … where you do have a chance to WIN short term regardless of the house advantage toll.
If I’m going into a game and the dealer say’s its been cold or it’s dumping, I do not fight the issue. I rather rationalize that the momentum will continue.
It’s better than your scenario quote " … So there is nothing to take 'advantage' of. A table may have been cold, but at the moment you start, the 'coldness' or hotness' of the table is yet to be determined. If you believe the previous rolls will make the next rolls more likely to win, then I can't help.”
WOW …. You can’t help me because playing without some sort of direction is like I coulda, maybe I shoulda yeah if I only woulda.
Either you bet with the dice, against the dice. or sit on the side lines and don’t play.
The long term math indicates craps has some of the best bets in the casino, you can look at the negatives, but I’m looking at the positives.
Gazoops!
There is no such thing as momentum at a craps table. Of course there are streaks of hot and cold. The seven will not appear in every one of six rows, but will appear on AVERAGE once of six rolls.
You can't see streaks of hot and cold until they have occurred, in the past. When I step up to a table, I have no knowledge that I am going to not get a point and the next eleven shooters will do the same thing (odds 519:1) or if I am going to hit 7 points (odds 549:1). And noboby else does either. And I've done and seen both, many, many times.
And because sevening out occurs more often than making a point (59.4% vs 40.6%), you are much more likely to see cold streaks over hot streaks. And while this might cause someone to switch to the dark side, of course, this doesn't take into account the come-out rolls which take away that cold streak advantage from the wrong-siders.
Players win because the HA is so thin that streaks that naturally occur cause variance (ie, luck) to swing to the player's side. Variance is the key to all gambling. Without variance, there is no gambling. It just becomes entertainment. For example, Videopoker.com has no variance. You pay a monthly fee, play as much as you want, and don't win or lose anything. Would you rather play a form of blackjack that costs, say $.06/hand, but you have to give back all of your winnings or losing, or would you rather play blackjack, that costs, on average, to all players, $.06 / hand (based on a $10 minimum bet), but you get to keep everything you win or lose?
Quote:SOOPOO
I stand by my comment, and anyone who understands the math behind craps can confirm, THERE ARE NO ADVANTAGE PLAYS at a craps table.
The above statement holds true, because you are playing a negative game! Even is you are a DI, you can’t beat the game every time you hit the tables, if you could and everybody else could, there would be no craps at the casinos. Knowing the math of the game doesn’t make you a winner when you are playing craps, I’ve seen more money lost on the 6 and 8 then any other box number bet! The math of the game says they are the best bets, to bet on!
Without trends nobody would win on the game of craps, the math of the game tells you that. But everyday there are winners playing craps, like TinhornGambler that knows there are times you shouldn’t play on a table that has been cold for hours. For players like him, it’s a common courtesy that the dealers will extend to him, telling him the table is cold, because he plays so much and the dealers know him!
Players like TinhornGambler know the math of the game, but they also know that you can’t beat the game with stupid betting, and betting on any number that is not being rolled is just stupid! Staying and trying to change a cold table into a hot one is stupid. TinhornGambler doesn’t play craps in a one casino town, all he has to do is walk across the street to the next casino and find better playing conditions.
Trends drive the game of craps, not the math of the game. Learning when a trend is happening has got to be one of the hardest things any craps player can do. They are very easy to spot after the fact, and that is why the casinos always win. Can someone like TinhornGambler catch every trend that the table has; no way! But when the dealers or other players are telling you that you shouldn't buy-into a game, they have already spotted the trend. Then it’s time to move on to the next table that you want to play on.
Quote:SOOPOO
If you use a phrase like 'the momentum will continue', you believe that a roll in the past will affect the next roll. You are just plain wrong. Until you realize that the next roll is INDEPENDANT of all past rolls no one will be able to help you understand..... ...
For all you guys that want to believe the about statement, please keep right on betting like the next roll of the dice will be a winning roll, we need losers to keep the game going, if the table is cold! There are a lot of guys like TinhornGambler, that play the game just about everyday. He doesn’t win because he thinks like SOOPOO, he wins because he understands the game and what trends do!
I run into TinhornGambler some times when I’m at the tables, he is a very disciplined player that know how to play the game. Does he have an advantage when playing the game of craps, over the rest of the players on the table, I would say yes!
At the same time I will be the first to tell you that you can’t win playing craps just by being a so-called DI, with just your shooting, you need to know when to walk away from a craps table or play the other side of the game if that is what you need to do, to win. I’ve seen him playing both side of the tables, he is one of the smarter players that I’ve run into on playing craps!
This argument has been going on for years, the math guys want you to believe that there are no trends in the game of craps or anything else in life, everything has one set order, that the math can explain, that is why they are the ones that write about only the math, and stand at a table losing, because they can’t see the hand writing on the wall, when the are losing, after all the next roll of the dice (INDEPENDENT OF ALL PAST ROLLS!) There are no trends in the game of craps that is what they want you to believe, their math can’t be wrong in the short time that you are going to be playing craps! Of course if they stayed at the cold table and was playing the right side of the table they would be broke before the long run ever caught up!
Quote: superrickDoes he have an advantage when playing the game of craps, over the rest of the players on the table, I would say yes!
I think you may have just changed the implication of "advantage". Now you are talking about advantage over other players. Previously (I thought) you were talking about advantage over the house. Of course it is possible to have an advantage over the other players -- just bet pass plus odds while they are betting horn or big red. It still won't give you an advantage over the house.
Quote: superrickThis argument has been going on for years, the math guys want you to believe that there are no trends in the game of craps or anything else in life....
Of course there are trends, and many of them occur on the craps table. The problem is that (unless you have some supernatural clairvoyance) you never know when a trend is going to start, stop, or change. It's a real shame when someone recognizes that a table is cold and leaves just before a monster roll. Or recognizes that a table is hot and bets their bankroll on a PSO.
I recently posted in another thread about my experiences last week at Harrah's Cherokee. I lost a bundle (for me) at a very cold table. Other than the financial losses, I was enjoying the game, so I stayed a little longer. I then had a great hand and won back all of my money plus some. Should I have just walked away from the cold table while I was far behind? I prefer it the way it really turned out, but there was no way at all for me to know whether things would get better or continue down a bad path.
There is a big difference between the guys that play at casinos like Cherokee. I often talk with one of my buddies that only get to play at one casino, he has no other choice. So after driving there and finding a cold table or a full table he can sit around and wait till the table improves or not play at all. There are times that he will not play! Sure he could be just like you and hope that the trend of the table will change, it happens all the time you leave and the very next roll is a mega roll, where you would have won all your money back if you knew how to bet the roll.
The problem is, what happens if the table doesn’t turn, and you lose all of your bank roll, the guys that play every day, couldn’t continue to play if that is what they did everyday.
Then you also have the so-called DI’s that think they have an advantage when they are shooting and have been lead to believe that they should only bet on themselves. They will stand at a table and let a fifty roll go by and then will pat themselves on the back for not betting on that damn random roller, way to funny if you ask me!
Quote:Doc
I recently posted in another thread about my experiences last week at Harrah's Cherokee. I lost a bundle (for me) at a very cold table. Other than the financial losses, I was enjoying the game, so I stayed a little longer. I then had a great hand and won back all of my money plus some. Should I have just walked away from the cold table while I was far behind? I prefer it the way it really turned out, but there was no way at all for me to know whether things would get better or continue down a bad path.
None of us have a crystal ball that can see into the future, but there are players that can pick-up on when a hot roll is happen, and take advantage of the roll, only because they didn’t blow their bankroll betting on players and tables when they were cold.
If you do play all the time, just think about all the times a mega roll has happened, the shooter held the dice for over an hour, and there are still players that have one pass line bet on the table and that is it, for one red chip! The table dumped all kinds of money to a few players, but most never took advantage of what was happening on the table.
Most craps players play the game for the fun of it, they love the social aspect of the game, they really don’t care about losing their money, and they will stay at the table till they lost everything, even if at one point they were a winner. They could have made 500% on there buy-in and by the time they are playing would have gave it all back!
You have the players that don’t know a thing about the game, they play when they see others playing craps and having fun. They are the ones that have so much money that they are willing to lose when they are in a casino trying to have some fun. Then you have the ones that play craps two to three times a year, coming into a place like Vegas that have read a book on the game that thinks they know everything about the game.
Then you have the so-called DI’s that again will play craps a few times a year, they have taking a class, and read everything they can on the game, but just don’t get the table time that they need to really understand what is happening on the table, some times they win and of course some times they lose. Next up you have the players that play everyday, they have been doing it for years, they know that you can walk across the street and find a better game. They are not locked into playing for comp, trying to get a free room the next time they are going to play craps, they leave the tables when they are winning. They don’t play when things are not going their way and they are not playing craps for the fun of it!
Their play, is get in,.. get the money and run as fast as you can!
No they do no win every time they play but they do not lose all of their bankroll every time they play either! Do they have the advantage everybody is looking for, it depends on how you look at them. I know one local DI that will leave a table if he has one losing bet. He will move on to the next table and do the same thing. When I asked him about his play one day, he responded to me, what you don’t understand I just lost, why would I want to continue to play here!
Was he sweating the money that he just lost, no! After all it could have just been his line bet. Guess what at the end of his day he is not a loser, and if he did lose it would only be a few dollars.
When I was playing down town Vegas I saw him just about everyday doing the same thing, he has been playing that way for years. If the table he is playing on turns hot for one roll he doesn’t stay around thinking the next roll will do the same thing, if he made his money for the day he is long gone. There is always the next day, come win or lost for him. By limiting his losses he has the money for the hot rolls!
Quote: superrickWhen I was playing down town Vegas I saw him just about everyday doing the same thing, he has been playing that way for years. If the table he is playing on turns hot for one roll he doesn’t stay around thinking the next roll will do the same thing, if he made his money for the day he is long gone. There is always the next day, come win or lost for him. By limiting his losses he has the money for the hot rolls!
And that sums it up. As a player who either drives 5 hours to get to Cherokee, or takes a 2 hour flight to Biloxi, once I arrive, I am going to play. Whether a table is hot or cold is irrelevant to me. Oh sure, I would love to step into a 'hot' roll and start raking in chips at the start, but that is very rare.
More often, I have a choice at crowding unto a $10 table that will be called 'choppy', or go to an empty table that the dealers will tell me is COLD. I like playing alone, so most of the time, I will take that table anyway. And many times I lose roll after roll, at the start. But, many times I end up making money on these tables. Someone will watch for a bit, like the way I am playing, and join in. Now there are two of us, playing the same game,,,,,, no middle junk, just a nice flowing game. Of course, once that happens, and the game gets in a good flow, here come all the other players looking for a 'hot' table. The table gets choppy, and then I move over to the other table which has 'gone cold' and is empty. Rinse and Repeat.
If I lived within 20 minutes, I wonder if I would have enough discipline to make that quick hit? Would I be able to just bide my time waiting for a good roll?
Quote: RaleighCrapsI like playing alone, so most of the time, I will take that table anyway. And many times I lose roll after roll, at the start. But, many times I end up making money on these tables. Someone will watch for a bit, like the way I am playing, and join in. Now there are two of us, playing the same game,,,,,, no middle junk, just a nice flowing game. Of course, once that happens, and the game gets in a good flow, here come all the other players looking for a 'hot' table.?
I'll tell you a good tip if you don't want to start out losing, but want to get the table hot...
When you step up to that table, all alone....bet Pass & Don't Pass...and just roll the dice...eventually, people will come over and it will turn into a hot table...
If the dealers/box don't let you do this, or don't like it...drop $100 and ask for change...cut out 3 red cheque's...toss one to each dealer and say "Here, I just paid your hourly salary, now you can be my slaves for the next hour." and walk away...
Speaking of which, I find myself on a craps upslope after my horrific downturn. I played this weekend with AHigh (I usually only play 1-2 times a week), and he will stipulate that I went on quite a heater. I estimate I played for six-eight hours at Fiesta Henderson, Jokers Wild, and Sam's Town. I booked some big wins at Fiesta (which is quickly becoming my favorite/luckiest casino), and then went on a semi-tear at Sam's Town where I had many numbers pressed with $5/$100 odds. I made a couple $, well on the road to financial recovery.
The only disheartening thing was the shameful tip hustling by some dealers when I colored up. I always tip prudently, whether dealer bets or hand-ins. However, I do not tip in proportion to the win. Some dealers don't seem to realize it take the same amount of work to move a black chip as a red chip. Unfortunately, there were very few tippers at any game I played.
Green black, yellow is next.
Even the boxman at Sam's town was impressed with Teddy's performance. Great fun.
Quote: teddysThere is no such thing as a hot table . . . but it's fun to pretend there is.
Speaking of which, I find myself on a craps upslope after my horrific downturn. I played this weekend with AHigh (I usually only play 1-2 times a week), and he will stipulate that I went on quite a heater. I estimate I played for six-eight hours at Fiesta Henderson, Jokers Wild, and Sam's Town. I booked some big wins at Fiesta (which is quickly becoming my favorite/luckiest casino), and then went on a semi-tear at Sam's Town where I had many numbers pressed with $5/$100 odds. I made a couple $, well on the road to financial recovery.
The only disheartening thing was the shameful tip hustling by some dealers when I colored up. I always tip prudently, whether dealer bets or hand-ins. However, I do not tip in proportion to the win. Some dealers don't seem to realize it take the same amount of work to move a black chip as a red chip. Unfortunately, there were very few tippers at any game I played.
Glad to hear it!
Matt: "Is that your buddy that won all that money yesterday?"
Me: "Yeah."
Matt: "The guy who was betting standard max odds strategy?"
Me: "Yeah."
Matt: "Does he always win like that?"
Me: "Naw. He deserves that win absolutely."
Matt: "That makes me feel better."
Apparently, the dealers took note of his winning streak(s) and are quite jealous (at least some of them). I lost $420 Sunday trying to bet odds instead of my typical betting strategies that are more risk-averse.
Today, I doubled my bankroll going back to my normal betting strategies. I am not one for high volatility, and I prefer to grind up a profit taking as few risks as possible.
Quote: AhighOne of the dealers (Matt) at the Fiesta was talking to me about Teddy while I was playing there alone on Sunday. The conversation went something like this:
Matt: "Is that your buddy that won all that money yesterday?"
Me: "Yeah."
Matt: "The guy who was betting standard max odds strategy?"
Me: "Yeah."
Matt: "Does he always win like that?"
Me: "Naw. He deserves that win absolutely."
Matt: "That makes me feel better."
Apparently, the dealers took note of his winning streak(s) and are quite jealous (at least some of them). I lost $420 Sunday trying to bet odds instead of my typical betting strategies that are more risk-averse.
Today, I doubled my bankroll going back to my normal betting strategies. I am not one for high volatility, and I prefer to grind up a profit taking as few risks as possible.
Why do his feelings enter the equation? "That makes me feel better"? So, you would have been happier if he had lost, left the table in disgust, and not tipped you at all?
I don't understand dealers who don't want players to win. Most dealers I know want players to win a lot, because they know winning makes for happy players, and happy players tend to tip more.
Quote: SACRWhy do his feelings enter the equation? "That makes me feel better"? So, you would have been happier if he had lost, left the table in disgust, and not tipped you at all?
I don't understand dealers who don't want players to win. Most dealers I know want players to win a lot, because they know winning makes for happy players, and happy players tend to tip more.
Ask him. His name is Matt, and I think he's the only one named Matt at the Fiesta Henderson.
But my guess is that he would like to have won that much money and felt like the only thing that allowed him to win that much money was betting so smart.
You have to also realize that most people that bet at the Fiesta Henderson bet pretty stupid bets.
I see a lot of $18 across betters, hardway betters, and tons of prop bets over there since it's a $3 table.
Teddy does max odds on every single roll and ends up with greens all through the rail and that's pretty unusual for that table. He sticks out like a sore thumb and everybody wants to know WTF?!?!
If it were the Wynn and he was doing 3x4x5x on a $10 that would be normal, because, well, actually, people at the Wynn are a little bit more knowledgeable about how to win at the game.
Quote: AhighIf it were the Wynn and he was doing 3x4x5x on a $10 that would be normal, because, well, actually, people at the Wynn are a little bit more knowledgeable about how to win at the game.
Are you sure?
We played craps at The Palazzo back in September, and it was a $15 table...and no one had a fucking clue how to play!
Lol, one guy bought in for $3000 and said "I want across the back." and threw the dealers 6 blacks, and the dealer kinda sat for a minute, then handed him change, and put him "behind" all the numbers...so the guy protested and said "NO, I WANT ACROSS THE BACK!" at this point, the boxman stepped in and told the base dealer that he thought the guy meant just "across", which the guy then said "Yeah, across the back!"
At this point, the game had been stopped for a bit, and of course...SEEEEVEN OUT..lol
Maybe Mr. Clueless was trying to lay all the numbers. I'm not a don't/lay bettor, but don't they position lay-bet chips across the back of the numbers, similar to the way they position don't-come/odds bets? If so, he should have won a bundle on that immediate 7-out.Quote: TIMSPEED"Yeah, across the back!"
Quote: DocMaybe Mr. Clueless was trying to lay all the numbers. I'm not a don't/lay bettor, but don't they position lay-bet chips across the back of the numbers, similar to the way they position don't-come/odds bets? If so, he should have won a bundle on that immediate 7-out.
Correct..That's what the dealer and I thought (he jumped in next to me)..but once the dealer set the bets up that way, the guy protested...That's when the boxman stepped in...the guy COULD have won a bundle...but I don't think he even knew what a LAY bet was...
There is a lay bet slot behind the prop bet box.
I think the dealer is as much at fault as the player because he didn't ask him to clarify his bets.
Quote: SACRIf he was trying to lay all the numbers, wouldn't he just say "Lay all the numbers"?
There is a lay bet slot behind the prop bet box.
I think the dealer is as much at fault as the player because he didn't ask him to clarify his bets.
No, the dealer DID ask "You mean lay all the numbers?" and the guy REPEATED "I WANT ACROSS THE BACK", so the dealer took it as a YES...He was just a neophyte with too much money.
After that event, I switched to an EMPTY $25 crap table, and shot by myself, promptly making 6 passes! (only $25 pass + single odds)
Of course Mr. Unlucky himself followed me! argh!
Quote: TIMSPEEDAre you sure?
We played craps at The Palazzo back in September, and it was a $15 table...and no one had a fucking clue how to play!
Lol, one guy bought in for $3000 and said "I want across the back." and threw the dealers 6 blacks, and the dealer kinda sat for a minute, then handed him change, and put him "behind" all the numbers...so the guy protested and said "NO, I WANT ACROSS THE BACK!" at this point, the boxman stepped in and told the base dealer that he thought the guy meant just "across", which the guy then said "Yeah, across the back!"
At this point, the game had been stopped for a bit, and of course...SEEEEVEN OUT..lol
Yeah, pretty sure. I think if you were to watch the % edge per bet at the Wynn versus any $1 or $3 table in town, you will find that the edge per bet is higher the lower the minimums, in general, once you go below $5.
That's the generalization that I am making.
The reasons are:
#1: More finger-snapping hop-betters on a $3 table (including the horn aka hop bets)
#2: More $3 place bets being made
#4: More fire bets being made
#5: Fewer odds bets being taken
These are just generalizations from watching various tables over the years.
There are total newcomers to any table that do unpredictable things.
But I notice that the regulars at the low-limit tables play craps more like people that play the lottery or keno. They go for the big win and generally lose their money pretty quick, and expect to do just that in general.
