Explain why Passline is better than Buy 4/10?

The guy next to me was always Buying the 4/10. He said it pays more for the same amount risked.

3/4/5x, $10min
5% Vig is paid after the win, thus HE = 1.67% to Buy 4/10

4/10:
$10 passline + $30 odds = $70 win

But if you Buy the 4/10 for $40 you get $80 - 2 vig = $78.
You get paid 11% more for the same amount risked as a Passline bet.

I know the Passline/max odds has a lower HE than the Buy 4/10, and winning $8 more doesnt make up for that.
It has something to do w/the Passline bet but i couldnt explain it to him.

How about a proper explaination?

House edge don't seem much different, so toss a coin and go for it.

With the passline bet, you get additional wins on the come-out, so you may (but not always) take down more this way if 7 and 11's were thrown before. The nature of the bets are different, (with a passline bet, the dice choose the point), so it's a little like comparing apples and oranges. If the point becomes 4/10, take odds; if not, add a 4/10 buy bet.

Quote: FleaStiff

House edge don't seem much different, so toss a coin and go for it.

passline + max odds = .37% (3/4/5x odds)
buy 4/10 = 1.67%

I want to insert the Joker's 'Not Sure if Serious' mime

Quote: 100xOdds

I know the Passline/max odds has a lower HE than the Buy 4/10, and winning $8 more doesnt make up for that.
It has something to do w/the Passline bet but i couldnt explain it to him.

How about a proper explaination?

I think the easiest way to explain it is that the advantage on the pass line bet is so great on the come out roll that it makes up for the under-pay upon resolution.

Edit: Compared to a buy bet.*

Quote: 100xOdds

The guy next to me was always Buying the 4/10. He said it pays more for the same amount risked.

3/4/5x, $10min
5% Vig is paid after the win, thus HE = 1.67% to Buy 4/10

4/10:
$10 passline + $30 odds = $70 win

But if you Buy the 4/10 for $40 you get $80 - 2 vig = $78.
You get paid 11% more for the same amount risked as a Passline bet.

I know the Passline/max odds has a lower HE than the Buy 4/10, and winning $8 more doesnt make up for that.
It has something to do w/the Passline bet but i couldnt explain it to him.

How about a proper explaination?

Whoops. Misread OP. Back to this.

EDIT: Okay, here we go - the catch is that it usually won't be a 4 or 10 that comes up. A 7 on the come-out roll, he loses $40, and you've won $10. Meanwhile, while other points are hitting, he gets nothing, and you win $70 on each.

Now, let's look at the downsides: another point (except for the 4/10 he didn't pick) comes up and sevens-out. You lose $50 or $60, whereas he loses $40. Craps on the come-out roll - you lose $10, he loses nothing. His number comes up while it wasn't on point - he wins $78, you get nothing. Another upside, though, when a yo hits on the come-out roll, and you gain $10, and he gets nothing.

Add it all up, and on the $60 you're risking, you're losing 4.2¢ per roll, whereas on the $40 he's risking, he's losing 16.7¢ per roll. That's the bottom line. Standard deviation enters into it, but yours on one roll (not "per roll" since it doesn't add) is actually higher (his is $15.50, whereas yours is $26.75).

the "you win more" on a win seems silly. Play roulette if you like that deal.

First off, if they do commission on the win and round down, a green chip on the 4 or the 10 has the lowest edge of any NON FREE bet on the table.

Combined with the fact that the pay is double does make it a better bet.

The idea of playing roulette as a better bet than a $25 four or $25 ten, the closest thing on roulette is a bet that also pays double (I think there are 6 of them).

The edge per event is 1.33% compres to 5.26% which means a $100 four would have the same long term costs at $25 bet on roulette if you were grinding on that to win.

Edge per win for a $25 four or ten (vig on the win) is 0.33% compared to 0.42% for the passline and 0.40% for the don't.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/2/

The edge per roll on this chart doesn't go into these details (rounding down buy bets commission on the win). But trust me it's true.

The fact that 0.33% is the lowest edge per roll of any non-free bet on the table (combined with the fact that it pays double) is one of the least known facts of experienced craps players and dealers. The same dealers that encourage you to take your odds bet (to increase your exposure) couldn't tell you how to optimize a horn-high-ace-deuce plus a dollar yo to a four-dollar-crap-check plus a two-dollar yo. The reason is because their job is to take your money not tell you the best way to win. They will tell you stories about how they like for you to win because they get tipped, but that is just a story. They really don't want to encourage you to win. They want to encourage you to tip big and/or get lost when you're done or if you're not going to tip .. any way they can.

The only way to get a free bet on the passline is to lose first. You also get free food and other things for losing. That also lowers the house edge, but I don't factor that into my cost to play. It's really just something that is there if I want it, but I don't feel obligated to eat $600 worth of food every month just because they give me free food coupons just like I don't take max odds on every bet just because I got free bets to take.

I take the bets that I want to take, and I order the food that I want to eat. Free or not, that is just one factor among many for how I want to play.

And if I roll a boatload of 4's, and I hit the 8 on the comeout, I'm not taking odds on the eight, I'm buying the four for a hundred bucks! Cost me $5 to get paid $200? Hopefully I can collect and walk and the $5 is the price of doing business.

If my goal is to roll as long as possible and lose the least amount of money, and assuming I get COMP'd on the odds, yeah max out the odds and do it up right.

But free bets are just free bets. Just like free anything. You might want it, you might not.

I say bet what you think is going to happen and win and leave. If you lose, the $1.00 to $20.00 you save making "smarter" bets will probably also get lost too. Especially if you're over-exposed on the do side.

There's some good advice in there: don't worry too much about the edge. You're playing a losing game anyway. If you're doing things like insisting on always betting banker, or always betting the don't, you may want to give the ponies a look. Still, it's best to think of it as one bet for six times the amount, rather than one followed by a free bet. You've got both a smaller edge and a better standard deviation - on average, you're losing less, and you're more likely to have a hot streak (or a cold streak, but you can't have one without risking the other). Only one round in three ends on the come-out roll.

If I understand the information on this post, the player's advantage against the house edge relies on winning the initial pass line roll of a 7/11, or the HE of wining a Come Bet if a Point is on and you 7 out quickly.

It seems to me, if you have a pass line bet and back that up with odds, since you have now moved passed the initial Come Out roll, it makes more sense to buy 1 or 2 numbers rather than a come bet with odds. You may win a Come Bet if a point is on when a 7 or 11 is rolled, but moving pass the initial Come Out roll, if it was your "intention" to hopefully get 2 or 3 more Come Bets with odds working, then why not just buy them directly and make a couple more dollars. The risk is higher, but rather than roll a 4/10 (or any point numbers) twice, you get paid on their initial roll. Plus those bets don't loose if the point is "OFF" and a 7 hits.

On an initial Pass Line 7 roll, your Come Bet odds would be returned, but you'd loose any "interior" Come Bets.

In the end if I want to make (i.e. plan to make) a couple come bets with odds anyway, I think buying the number directly after the initial pass line roll, makes more sense. It's a comparison of HE vs. risk/return. A bigger HE risk leads to a bigger win. All games work that way I suppose. In roulette, if you bet a single number you face a HUGE HE, but if you win you win big. If you bet Black/Red or Odd/Even, you don't win very big, but of course the HE is just a bit better than 50/50 depending on the single or double zeros on the wheel.

If the dice are cold and a bunch of 7 outs hit, then you'll loose more if you buy numbers, but if it's a hot table and 7's don't hit as often, you'll win more if you buy numbers directly. It still all comes down to hot or cold dice.

I have only been playing craps for a couple years now, so if anyone sees a flaw in my logic, I'm all ears.

Math is as follows:

Buy a 4/10 for $25, vig only on win.

EV = 49 x 3/9 - 25 x 6/9 = -.33333.

HA = EV / Bet size = -.33333 / 25 = 1.333%.

It takes four rolls to resolve this bet (9 combinations out of 36 resolve the bet). HA/Roll is .333%

The pass line is resolved in 2.709091 rolls (12/36 * 1 + 6/36 * (36/9) + 8/36 * (36/10) + 10/36 * (36/11)). The HA is 1.41414% or a per roll HA of 0.522%

Placing the 6 / 8 has a HA / roll of (7/6 *5/11 - 6/11) * (11/36) = 0.463%

----

The main advantage of the pass line is that you can dilute the bet with odds.

If you are not going to take the odds, then, yes, you are better off betting the 4, 6, 8, or 10.

The key is, if you want to bet about $25, you can buy the 4 for a house edge of 33c. Or, you can make a $5 pass line bet and take full odds. If you do this, the house edge is only 7c. Either way, you have about the same amount of action, but the house edge is significantly lower in the pass line + odds case. It's not even really close... you are cutting the house edge down by a factor of 4 or 5.

I think what people get hung up on is...
$7 + $21 will pay $49

However...
$28 will pay $55 ($56 - $1 vig)

you can't win on naturals...but then again, you can't lose to craps either...

Edge per roll for a $25 four or $25 ten is 0.33% as indicated above given the assumptions of rounding down on the vig and vig on the win.

The other edges per roll are listed on the Wizard's appendix, but note the edge per roll on the pass line is 0.42% (correction from two posts above):

https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/2

The edge per roll on the $25 buy with round down and commission on the win is the absolute lowest edge bet (of non-free bets) on the craps table.

Given that you have to make a passline bet first, and the odds bet is a separate bet, the buy bet is a better bet than the passline.

You would have to take an additional bet to get your average edge to go down.

Therefore, comparing apples to apples (a single bet to another single bet) the $25 buy bet is the better bet.

I assume that you mean 1.33% (you might want to fix the typo)

Separating the odds from the line bet makes no sense. The point is that the ability to take odds allows you to bet less on the pass line (thus reducing the house edge) and still get the same amount of money in play.

Comparing "apples to apples" here is comparing the same total amount bet. And, again, if you want to get about $25 down on the table, the cheapest way to do it is with a $5 pass line bet and full odds (assuming 3x-4x-5x odds). 7c house edge vs 33c if you buy the 4 or 10.

Don't get me wrong, I buy the numbers sometimes anyway. But I'm aware of how expensive it is compared to making line bets and taking odds.

You can't bet odds on the comeout. It's apples and oranges.

Pass line with max odds is a strategy, not a bet.

0.33 is right. PER ROLL.

Comparing one bet to another bet, the buy bet is better.

The edge per roll for the first 1.33 rolls is still better, and there's only two rolls after that with a better edge.

So more than one third of the pass line plus odds strategy is still inferior in terms of the edge compared to the buy bet from the time you start betting.

You get a better edge from the first roll with the buy bet.

Is this a trick question: "Explain why Passline is better than Buy 4/10?" It could be a trick question. I have to ask the question "what do you mean better?

Passline bets are paid even money.
Passline bet is more likely to win
Buy bets on the 4/10 pay more.
Buy bets on the 4/10 have a greater chance of losing.
Passline bets might earn you lower comps.
Buy bets on the 4/10 might earn you bigger comps.
A dice influencer might hit 4s and 10s more.
A dice influencer might hit 4s and 10s less.
A random shooter might hit 4s and 10s more.
A random shooter might hit 4s and 10s less.

The bottom line is, at a $5 table, if someone wants to get about $25 down on the table, the cheapest way to do this is to bet $5 on the pass line and take max odds.

Now, if you want to call it a strategy rather than a bet, that's fine. My answer is still that the passline bet is a better bet than the buy, because the passline bet allows you to follow this clearly superior strategy, while the buy bet does not. If one bet allows you to make another bet, then the only logical way to look at things is to combine the total of all the bets you've made. This is why, when analyzing a carnie game (like mississippi stud, for example) you don't just look at the house edge on the first bet that you make, but, rather, the element of risk, which takes into account ALL the money you bet.

So, your choices are, make a large ($25) bet with a moderate house edge, or make a much smaller ($5) bet with a slightly higher house edge that will then allow you to make a larger bet with NO EDGE. Element of risk for the first approach is 1.33% per bet, and 0.33% per roll. Element of risk for the 2nd approach is 0.375% per bet, 0.11% per roll. In the end, you are losing only 1/3 of the money per roll. This is a huge, significant difference.

This has been a good thread. I think I've just talked myself out of ever buying or placing numbers again. My bankroll with thank me, I'm sure.

I'm less sure myself. Granted, by 100,000 rolls your bankroll will thank you. But by that time you're sure to lose.

If you want to win and win quick, you may still want to look further into buying the 4 with pressure and get your win done and quit.

Of course that may require more luck than you have available.

Of course I'm going to lose! You're going to lose too. Was there ever any doubt of that? It's a -EV game.

The point is not to avoid losing, but, rather, to lose as little as possible while having as much fun as possible. In other words, pay as little as possible for my entertainment.

As far as winning and quitting, that only makes sense if you are never going to play again. Otherwise, "quitting a winner" is a fallacy. Your lifetime is just one long session. (I think I paraphrased / stole that from Theory of Poker, or something, but it applies here too).

Bottom line: I play too much to have a reasonable hope of being ahead, and you play a hell of a lot more than I do.

The argument is that buying the $25 and paying the vig on the win will actually cost you $.08333 /roll.
Playing $5 on the pass line and playing max odds will only cost you $.0261 / roll.

While the HA/roll is much better on the buy 4/10, you have to play $25. The P/L player only plays $5 and has zero cost with the odds.

Theoretically, based on a 500 roll session, the $25 buy better (on with the point only) will cost $27.778 and will have an average of $16.67 of action (1/3 of rolls are come out rolls).

The $5 P/L player with max 3/4/5 odds will cost only $13.05 and will have an average of $18.89 of action (from the odds bet).

The $5 Pass player has more action and less cost. The pass line player has the better bet.

I'm reading some good information on this post.

While this thread is a comparison of PL (I assume w/ odds) vs. Buy 4/10, I would additionally like to ask for thoughts on Come Bets vs. Buying additional numbers after a point is turned ON.

CB w/ odds as I understand it are the same as PL w/ odds so I am I right to assume that the HE and the math in the end make CB play better than Buy bet play?

CB odds are turned off when the point is hit and a new Pass Line bet starts a round over, but if a 7 hits on the new PL at this point, then CB odds get returned, and the CB itself is lost, basically being a 7-out. While a CB looses to a 7-out in this scenario, the Buy bet doesn't win or loose, it just waits to be turned back on when a point is re-established.

Sorry if this isn't exactly what the thread title is asking, but I've only been a craps player for a short time and my question appears, at least to me, to be somewhat related.

Quote: drsamurai

I'm reading some good information on this post.

While this thread is a comparison of PL (I assume w/ odds) vs. Buy 4/10, I would additionally like to ask for thoughts on Come Bets vs. Buying additional numbers after a point is turned ON.

CB w/ odds as I understand it are the same as PL w/ odds so I am I right to assume that the HE and the math in the end make CB play better than Buy bet play?

CB odds are turned off when the point is hit and a new Pass Line bet starts a round over, but if a 7 hits on the new PL at this point, then CB odds get returned, and the CB itself is lost, basically being a 7-out. While a CB looses to a 7-out in this scenario, the Buy bet doesn't win or loose, it just waits to be turned back on when a point is re-established.

Sorry if this isn't exactly what the thread title is asking, but I've only been a craps player for a short time and my question appears, at least to me, to be somewhat related.

The odds of the Come Bet are the same as the pass line. By convention, the come odds and the Buy/Place bets are OFF on the come out roll. However, you can turn them on if you want. This means then, that the Come out roll would be the same as any other roll.

Note: You do not have a choice on your Come Bet. It is ALWAYS working, and you have no choice about that. (that is because you had the edge when you made the come bet, but once your come bet has traveled to a number, the house has the edge on the bet, and they make you keep that bet in play).

That does help to clarify it for me. I had figured this was the case, but your explanation of comparing how and when some bets are OFF (and can be turned ON) helped me make the connection as to why Come Bet play is better in the long run.

Thanks.

Quote: boymimbo

The argument is that buying the $25 and paying the vig on the win will actually cost you $.08333 /roll.
Playing $5 on the pass line and playing max odds will only cost you $.0261 / roll.

While the HA/roll is much better on the buy 4/10, you have to play $25. The P/L player only plays $5 and has zero cost with the odds.

Theoretically, based on a 500 roll session, the $25 buy better (on with the point only) will cost $27.778 and will have an average of $16.67 of action (1/3 of rolls are come out rolls).

The $5 P/L player with max 3/4/5 odds will cost only $13.05 and will have an average of $18.89 of action (from the odds bet).

The $5 Pass player has more action and less cost. The pass line player has the better bet.

This is a great, succinct explanation. Thanks boymimbo!