superrick
superrick
Joined: Jul 14, 2010
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November 20th, 2012 at 9:50:35 AM permalink
From time to time, I get asked these type of questions, when someone reads about something like this on one of the boards! The posters said he rolled 15 field numbers in a row. I guy that is asking me wants to know if I've ever seen someone do that!

My answer was no in all my years of playing craps that is one that I've not seen happen! So for all you math guys that we all depend on so much, what would be the odds of rolling 15 field numbers in a row?

superrick
Note, all my post start with this is just my opinion...! You do good brada ..! superrick Winning comes from knowledge and skill when your betting and not reading fiction http://procraps4u2.myfanforum.org/index.php ...
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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November 20th, 2012 at 9:57:06 AM permalink
The short answer is this: There is a 16 / 36 = 0.444444444 chance that the NEXT roll is a field.

There is a ( 16 / 36 ) ^ 15 = 0. 0.000005215 chance that the NEXT 15 ROLLS are all fields. (i.e. 1 in 191,751)


The chance that you'll see such an outcome at all? That really depends upon how many rolls you see...
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁 Note that the same could be said for Religion. I.E. Religion is nothing more than organized superstition. 🤗
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
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November 20th, 2012 at 10:00:41 AM permalink
Never mind. Dave is too fast!
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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November 20th, 2012 at 10:05:37 AM permalink
Agree with DJ here
very next 15 rolls or any set of 15 rolls in a row
0.000005215095051
1 in 191,751.059



Now...
at least 1 time in the next 150 rolls
0.000396285480908
1 in 2,523.433


at least 1 time in the next 1,500 rolls
0.004298595447968
1 in 232.634

at least 1 time in the next 15,000 rolls
0.042493558426407
1 in 23.533

at least 1 time in the next 150,000 rolls
0.352458584520565
1 in 2.837


1 million rolls
0.944831707413646

http://www.pulcinientertainment.com/info/Streak-Calculator-enter.html

added:
The average number of dice rolls to see 15 in a row is
345,150.11
Meaning one just keeps rolling the dice until the event happens
http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/math/8141-on-average-how-many-trials-will-it-take-to-see-a-streak-of-8-qs-for-fun/

I personally in about 10k rolls have had 2 steaks of 12 in a row Field hits.
No one bet the first one (The Strat)
Many bet the 2nd one (El Cortez)
at least 2 runs of length 12 or more in 10k rolls
0.043690201836681
1 in 22.89
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
Doc
Doc
Joined: Feb 27, 2010
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November 20th, 2012 at 10:06:15 AM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

Never mind. Dave is too fast!


By the time I had a post composed, not only had Dave given his answer, but Russ had complained about it. All I could add is that the chance of getting exactly 15 straight (and then getting a non-field number on roll #16) would be:

P= 2.897 x 10^(-6) or about 1 chance in 345,152.
PapaChubby
PapaChubby
Joined: Mar 29, 2010
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November 20th, 2012 at 10:42:03 AM permalink
Question: "I just saw a guy roll 15 field winners in a row! What are the odds of that happening?"

My smartass answer: "One. Because you just saw it happen."
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
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November 20th, 2012 at 10:46:14 AM permalink
Quote: superrick

From time to time, I get asked these type of questions, when someone reads about something like this on one of the boards! The posters said he rolled 15 field numbers in a row. I guy that is asking me wants to know if I've ever seen someone do that!

My answer was no in all my years of playing craps that is one that I've not seen happen! So for all you math guys that we all depend on so much, what would be the odds of rolling 15 field numbers in a row?

superrick



The thing that throws most folks is that the, "15 field rolls in a row" that has already occured, does not alter the probability of a field number on the next, or any future rolls. The "odds" provided in the answers above (except the streak calculations), specifically refer to a future 15, (and only 15) rolls of the dice.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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November 20th, 2012 at 11:55:49 AM permalink
+1
From the Zumma Craps System Tester
35,097 actual casino dice rolls
Field Win Streaks
streak	Field	Field
length Actual expected
1 4821 4814.62
2 2099 2139.77
3 951 950.98
4 420 422.65
5 187 187.84
6 92 83.48
7 34 37.10
8 12 16.49
9 8 7.33
10 4 3.26
11 2 1.45
12 0 0.64
13 0 0.29
14 0 0.13
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
CrapsForever
CrapsForever
Joined: Mar 6, 2012
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November 20th, 2012 at 12:37:52 PM permalink
I saw exactly 15 Field Numbers thrown in a row in Atlantic City in the early 2000s.

Not much is impossible in Craps, improbable not impossible. In my 12 years of playing Craps; I've seen so many anomalies on a Craps table...there's not much I won't believe.
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!
ncfatcat
ncfatcat
Joined: Jun 25, 2011
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November 20th, 2012 at 12:50:39 PM permalink
Murphy was a Craps Player
Gambling is a metaphor for life. Hang around long enough and it's all gone.

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