Hot streak: Taking down odds when you reach win threshold?
September 29th, 2012 at 3:40:43 AM
permalink
3/4/5x odds, $10min
strategy: Pass/Continuous Come
$1000 buy-in: Stop when +1000 or 0
it's a good roll so far. you have all the #s (4,5,6,8,9,10) + max odds.
You've been pressing to $15 Come so total flat bets on the table= $90 + total odds = $360.
with that last hit you're now +650. add the $360 in odds, you're at the +1000 stop threshold.
But should you stop and take down the odds?
or risk it, ride the streak and hope the 7 doesnt hit in the next roll?
strategy: Pass/Continuous Come
$1000 buy-in: Stop when +1000 or 0
it's a good roll so far. you have all the #s (4,5,6,8,9,10) + max odds.
You've been pressing to $15 Come so total flat bets on the table= $90 + total odds = $360.
with that last hit you're now +650. add the $360 in odds, you're at the +1000 stop threshold.
But should you stop and take down the odds?
or risk it, ride the streak and hope the 7 doesnt hit in the next roll?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
September 29th, 2012 at 3:58:22 AM
permalink
IMO you shouldn't strive for so many numbers up, so take down the odds till you hit one, then instead of another come bet put back the odds... Although if you ask me, even starting with a thousand, 3 numbers up is enough.
Mathematically the only issue is whether you are risking too much compared to your bankroll; your extra action does not favor the house. If it might be true that it's too much for the bankroll, then the thing is, don't go for 6 numbers up!!!
Mathematically the only issue is whether you are risking too much compared to your bankroll; your extra action does not favor the house. If it might be true that it's too much for the bankroll, then the thing is, don't go for 6 numbers up!!!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
September 29th, 2012 at 4:40:49 AM
permalink
I think one of the issues all of us deal with is not wanting to be on the sidelines when a huge roll hits but my actual experience has been that there a good deal to be said for a "reset" where you "lock in" (as long as you don't lose it later) a good profit and start over.
The experience would be the kind of "automatic" reset you get after someone gets you up on a lot or all the numbers, hits a bunch, and then makes the point. You're still up on all but one number and you have some chips added to your stack. Then the shooter rolls a "Winner 7" on the new come out sequence and you get a stack of odds back while losing the flats. That situation usually works out well for me--I reset and start over and don't lose all my profit if the shooter now 7's out and I can press my bets if the roll goes on longer.
The other situation is the long roll with no 7's where you press, press, press and the profit starts to rise but then the "7" hits. There goes a table full of odds and flat bets.
Like anything else in a random game, you can win or lose either way...I would just say that my experience is that a reset--or, lowering the odds/flat bets--can help to lock in the profit.
Now...will I do it when it happens again or will I get caught up in the game???
The experience would be the kind of "automatic" reset you get after someone gets you up on a lot or all the numbers, hits a bunch, and then makes the point. You're still up on all but one number and you have some chips added to your stack. Then the shooter rolls a "Winner 7" on the new come out sequence and you get a stack of odds back while losing the flats. That situation usually works out well for me--I reset and start over and don't lose all my profit if the shooter now 7's out and I can press my bets if the roll goes on longer.
The other situation is the long roll with no 7's where you press, press, press and the profit starts to rise but then the "7" hits. There goes a table full of odds and flat bets.
Like anything else in a random game, you can win or lose either way...I would just say that my experience is that a reset--or, lowering the odds/flat bets--can help to lock in the profit.
Now...will I do it when it happens again or will I get caught up in the game???
September 29th, 2012 at 4:57:31 AM
permalink
>you shouldn't strive for so many numbers up,...
True, but it happens from time to time and having risked those flat bets its in for a penny, in for a pound.
> so take down the odds till you hit one, ...
WHY take down a bet that has NO HOUSE EDGE in damning your bankroll. Yes, its a risk to have Skinny Duggan come along and take ALL the flat bets and ALL those odds bets but you've already run a risk and survived so why not "Go For Broke" by switching to the Dark Side!
True, but it happens from time to time and having risked those flat bets its in for a penny, in for a pound.
> so take down the odds till you hit one, ...
WHY take down a bet that has NO HOUSE EDGE in damning your bankroll. Yes, its a risk to have Skinny Duggan come along and take ALL the flat bets and ALL those odds bets but you've already run a risk and survived so why not "Go For Broke" by switching to the Dark Side!
September 29th, 2012 at 6:48:01 AM
permalink
Quote: FleaStiff>you shouldn't strive for so many numbers up,...
True, but it happens from time to time and having risked those flat bets its in for a penny, in for a pound.
> so take down the odds till you hit one, ...
WHY take down a bet that has NO HOUSE EDGE in damning your bankroll. Yes, its a risk to have Skinny Duggan come along and take ALL the flat bets and ALL those odds bets but you've already run a risk and survived so why not "Go For Broke" by switching to the Dark Side!
The reason to take down a bet are many besides the house edge. The expected chance to reach your goal as a combination of all the bets on the table is always the reason I would take down or move bets around.
Luck is one vehicle to get to your goal. Even though there is no edge, odds bets require greater than normal luck to win as they lose more often than they win.
But another vehicle to get to your goal is discipline, and if you see that by taking down your bets you will have reached your goal, do not attempt to win more than your goal and therefore risk not reaching your goal.
Most people generally make the mistake of not having rigid goals and try to win as much as possible even after hitting their targets. Winning more money works a little less than half the time if you know what you're doing.
But you can also be $1 short of your goal and be working so hard to chase that dollar you don't make it too. I generally don't worry if I am a dollar, two, or three short of my goal.
aahigh.com
September 30th, 2012 at 1:24:03 PM
permalink
Thats a good question. If you reach your goal on YOUR rolling, the pulling down of bets loks bad for the other players. It seems that a NET win-table = goal amount is in order for this occasion.
On someone else's roll backing down to minimum wager single odds lets you test the table.
On someone else's roll backing down to minimum wager single odds lets you test the table.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
