Another hardway video

http://youtu.be/ni-uMB17x4I

Do you think that an event with a likelihood of 1:1331 is incredibly unusual?
Because it isn't. It does not prove anything.
It would seem to me that you film everything at your home casino
and selectively post videos that you think are significant events.
How many hours of tape contain nothing?
Sorry, but this is meaningless as proof.
It doesn't meet the scientific criteria.

Quote: WongBo

Do you think that an event with a likelihood of 1:1331 is incredibly unusual?

No. But I think setting out to make a video to get that result and being able to accomplish it in a fraction of the number of rolls normally required was really fun to do.

Quote: WongBo

Because it isn't. It does not prove anything.

Okay.

Quote: WongBo

It would seem to me that you film everything at your home casino

It would seem to me that you enjoy coming to conclusions that make yourself feel more comfortable with your belief system.

Quote: WongBo

and selectively post videos that you think are significant events.

No not really.

Quote: WongBo

How many hours of tape contain nothing?

This is my third recording session with this recording setup. I am happy share all of my recordings with you if you wish. But I think that your question is a rhetorical one, isn't it? In any case, of those three sessions, they all contain things. I chose the best 25 minutes out of approximately 2 hours of recording.

Quote: WongBo

Sorry, but this is meaningless as proof.

I do appreciate the feedback, and I understand. But my point wasn't to say that this was proof, although I do talk specifically about my desire to prove it. I do not know and I am asking if there is even a way to prove it given that NOBODY has been able to do that yet. So here's my rhetorical question: did you think that I thought this video asserted with scientific validity that I have now proven that being able to influence the dice is possible?

Quote: WongBo

It doesn't meet the scientific criteria.

Thank you for your comments, Mr Wong Bo.

OP. Your math is not 100% correct for how you are using the number of dice rolls.

the 1 in 1331 is for only 3 rolls and 3 rolls only.
This has already been discussed here at WoV.

Roll 3 times, start over, next 3.
Cant overlap as you are doing.
The math of streaks is a bit more involved than most think.
(1/11)^3 is for any 3 rolls in a row. not 10 rolls or 100 rolls in a row.
The more rolls the easier it is to roll 3 in a row.

I spelled out your lack of understanding streak math in your thread and this post
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/11316-threw-9-hardways-in-ten-rolls/13/#post182956

Use this streak calculator
http://www.pulcinientertainment.com/info/Streak-Calculator-enter.html

For the average number of trials (not the actual distribution, that can be found in my Excel link)
see this thread
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/math/8141-on-average-how-many-trials-will-it-take-to-see-a-streak-of-8-qs-for-fun/
It is 1463 dice rolls for your run of length 3 but the median is only 568 rolls,
1/4 of these events (first quartile) happen within the first 237 dice rolls and your 3 in a row will happen sooner than later on average since the distribution is geometric and NOT normal.

For the math of streaks see this thread
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/math/4855-ask-the-wizard-correction/

In any 20 rolls, anyone rolling the dice has a 1 in 81.2 chance of randomly hitting your event.
100 rolls, about a 1 in 15.4 at least one time
In 100 rolls, about a 1 in 497.85 chance of doing it TWICE.

A far cry from 1 in 1331, meaning it is way easier than you think.
See my post about the 4 in a row (in 10,000 trials) I linked to. Your math there is WAY off.

You need to do at least 2 standard deviations better every time to show you have the "force" or the "gift"
and are the chosen one.

I think you do not even want to understand how to do proper math for streaks and variance, most do not, because it is a little too hard at first to understand and learn.
I gave you and everyone links that shows how to do the math correctly.
You also need to simulate this stuff to show to yourself that the math, the proper math, is correct.

Your choice
Still good comedy but not as great as the first albums.

Thanks for the help, Guido. And I will go back and brush up on these things. I know it might have seemed like I passed right by your comments without contemplation. But I will get back to them.

I also have to agree that I have a lack of understanding on some of these math concepts. That's one of the reasons I enjoy posting on this forum because there are so many math experts on here.

Can you link me to the thread talking about the chances being more likely than 1331:1 for parlaying a $1 hard 8 to $1000 and down? I totally realize that the chances of doing one of either the 6 or the 8 to that level increased the chances by a factor of two. But I'm not sure I understand the multi-roll aspects, and that's something I'm eager to learn about in the short term.

Also, there are multiple ways to skin a cat, and my Monte Carlo Sim gets a lot of the same answers by using simulation without having to do so much math. I can generate random data and look at very long term results on the simulation to see expected results.

It's not as easy to get actual roll data to contrast that against when you're talking about hundreds of thousands of events, but the random part is a lot easier for me to do, and I do that. I haven't yet done it on the hardway strategies, but it's very easy for me to do.

But I also do appreciate and understand that this is not that hard to accomplish with luck what I did on this video. I have seen 1:100 payouts many times obviously. You will see the opportunity for 1:1000 payouts frequently (hardway back-to-back is 1->961 usually, but never seen anyone hit that in two rolls ever). But I am curious out of the readers out there, how many of you have seen a $1 to $1000 successful parlay on a hard 6/8 in the casino? Most people will just take the money when they get to $100 is my experience. I know I've not risked a $100 win on a hard 8 to win $1000. I'm like "I won!"

I completely understand what I posted does not prove anything, and I never felt that it would.

But rather than get comments about how this does not prove anything, or about how this could have been done many ways, or how that it is not that unlikely, why not come up with a way that I can prove it. Obviously if 1 in 43 million is met with "you got lucky" I'm prepared for the ho-hum response on this video in terms of the "so what" factor.

But nobody has said, "if you do this that and the other, that would prove it."

I am having no problems not proving something or being told I haven't proven anything. That's really easy.

But as far as criticizing you guys, anybody can tell me I haven't proved anything yet. But who can tell me a definitive way to prove that it is possible to influence the dice? Is there even a way to prove that it is possible, or is proving it possible simply not possible? Because I haven't seen the formula for a scientific proof. Just obvious musing about how what I am doing is not it, as if I hadn't made that realization on my own.

" But I am curious out of the readers out there, how many of you have seen a $1 to $1000 successful parlay on a hard 6/8 in the casino? "

A better question might be, what serious dice player hasn't !

Quote: Ahigh

But nobody has said, "if you do this that and the other, that would prove it."

people have, you are not listening.

It is all a matter of degree of confidence or degree of certainty.

I suggested you beating 2 standard deviations, not hard at all about 1 in 40, every time or at least with a 90% confidence level.

Keep doing something outside of 2SD range and people WILL notice... the ones that know how difficult it really is to over 90% of the time show events that should only happen 2.5% of the time.

Some Basketball players (not all pros)
and a few really good ones that try can do this shooting free throws,
they blow away the average free throw shooters, of course not in a game situation after running up and down the court,
a select few hit 50 free throws in a row 4 out of 5 times or better. There are videos of people doing this.
This is way over in the tail of the curve.

This is what you should seek.

if you can not beat 2SD consistently, and 2.5% of random folks do, you have no claim to fame IMO.
If that is too hard then start beating 1SD and work your way up.

I have seen many hardways hit 3 times in a row or more, but most, including myself, do not always parlay our wins, we pocket our wins because we also know that the X in a row parlays can disappear for many many trials, even by those that say they throw more than just the average shooter.

Yeah, if I could win at dice, I would spend all my time in the basement, instead of a casino. DUH !!

Quote: guido111

It is 1463 dice rolls for your run of length 3 but the median is only 568 rolls,

Isn't that resolutions, not rolls? p=1/11 is for resolutions of the hard 8 bet. There are 3.2727... average rolls/resolution for that wager (e.g. rolling a 3 or 9).

Quote: MathExtremist

Isn't that resolutions, not rolls? p=1/11 is for resolutions of the hard 8 bet. There are 3.2727... average rolls/resolution for that wager (e.g. rolling a 3 or 9).

Good point to make clear ME.
Exactly, I missed that.

We are concerned with only 8s and 7s for our run since any other roll does not cause the parlayed bet to be resolved.

To consider all rolls one must use 1/36 for p. But I think this would be a useless figure.
This shows an average of 47,988 total dice rolls where Hard8, Hard8, 11, Hard8 would NOT be 3 Hard8s in a row.

resolutions rule!

This reminds me of the stories that make the news from time to time about an elephant in the zoo who was in the top 1% of the bell curve with his picks against the spread in the NFL. You never hear about the other 99% of animals who had unremarkable results.

Likewise, I could put a video camera on a tripod and throw the dice and I would eventually hit three hard ways in a row. Then I crop out all the rolls that preceded it.

Quote: Wizard

This reminds me of the stories that make the news from time to time about an elephant in the zoo who was in the top 1% of the bell curve with his picks against the spread in the NFL. You never hear about the other 99% of animals who had unremarkable results.

Likewise, I could put a video camera on a tripod and throw the dice and I would eventually hit three hard ways in a row. Then I crop out all the rolls that preceded it.

Although I understand that this is the line of reasoning that typifies challenges by the "betting system" guys on this forum more often, I challenge even you to understand that I'm not proposing a system. I am on a mission to prove that influencing the dice is possible.

I think the line of thinking that you are illuminating is distracting from my particular goals, and further I think your comment diminishes the intended results of my work.

I assure you that I am not culling out loads of data to do a magic trick, or encourage a betting system, and I absolutely understand how this trick works. I think there are some magicians here in Vegas who do exactly that, for example.

This video for example, I think that probably went through a number of failed attempts in order to accomplish:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gca-bD4gOec

I'm pretty sure all the girls selected for previous takes has equally interesting visual features, and that was not luck.

Quote: guido111

Good point to make clear ME.
Exactly, I missed that.

We are concerned with only 8s and 7s for our run since any other roll does not cause the parlayed bet to be resolved.

To consider all rolls one must use 1/36 for p. But I think this would be a useless figure.
This shows an average of 47,988 total dice rolls where Hard8, Hard8, 11, Hard8 would NOT be 3 Hard8s in a row.

resolutions rule!

Hardways are treated by most Craps players using math as a Binomial event, and they are not.
They are MultiNomial. Win, Lose and Push.

The streak calculator and average number of trials shown are for Binomial Events.

I think if we take for example, the 1463 average resolutions and multiply that by 36/11, I think that would still give us a wrong answer.
It may be close, I do not remember.

I was more concerned in my sims of the total losses that accumulated before I hit my 3 in a row wins.
It was depressing. The losses were way too high.
Duh...right!

I simulated this a few years back to get the wait times for the number of resolutions, losses and total dice rolls for runs of hardways.
I have to locate that data or re-do the sims.

I would like to know, and can find out,
how many total rolls it takes to see 3 Hard8s win in a row (or any run of hardways)
Is it
1463*(36/11). Would be easy if it is.

(1/11)^3 tells us very little and really points us down a road that should not be traveled.

Quote: Wizard

This reminds me of the stories that make the news from time to time about an elephant in the zoo who was in the top 1% of the bell curve with his picks against the spread in the NFL. You never hear about the other 99% of animals who had unremarkable results.

Every year one will expect one "animal" to be in the top 1%.

But now say that "same" elephant was in the top 1% for 8 straight years, or 9 out of 10 years.
Are we buying more peanuts?

Quote: guido111

Good point to make clear ME.
Exactly, I missed that.

We are concerned with only 8s and 7s for our run since any other roll does not cause the parlayed bet to be resolved.

To consider all rolls one must use 1/36 for p. But I think this would be a useless figure.
This shows an average of 47,988 total dice rolls where Hard8, Hard8, 11, Hard8 would NOT be 3 Hard8s in a row.

resolutions rule!

Yes, but one could still multiply through by the average resolution time to get an average number of rolls (vs bets) to see three hard 8s in a row. 3.2727 * 1463 = 4788. Thus, 4788 is the average number of dice rolls with a streak of three hard 8 winners.

Note: according to the streak calculator and the resolution time, the number of rolls to expect a 50% chance of having seen a streak of three hard 8 winners is 3319.

Edit: While I was typing this, 7craps posited that the ternary (multinomial) nature of the hard 8 wager invalidates the computations for mean waiting time. I'm not sure this is the case when the third outcome is irrelevant to the question of the wager. Analogy: if a binomial process is a 1-D random walk {+9, -1}, a multinomial process with one or more irrelevant outcomes {+9, -1, 0} is still a 1-D random walk but sometimes you just sit there. I could be wrong, but I don't have time right now to properly investigate.

Quote: Ahigh

I am on a mission to prove that influencing the dice is possible.

I'm pretty sure all the girls selected for previous takes has equally interesting visual features, and that was not luck.

Second point first.... Were those girls at a roulette table? I didn't notice.....

First point.... I am on a mission to prove that influencing the dice is not possible (using real casino rules requiring both dice to hit the back wall).
You are more interesting than the others who have come here to state they can influence the dice, as they have all made remarks that they can do it well enough to beat the house edge. To this point I don't think you have made that assertion. It seems like you are unwilling to make an assertion of how well you can influence the dice, just that you can, so I can't come up with a bet that you find acceptable to disprove that vague assertion.
You of course should understand the skepticism of those here about u-tube posted videos..... The science and math guys here use what's called the 'scientific method', where you basically make and state a hypothesis, then devise a test strong enough to be statistically significant, and do it with an unbiased observer collecting the evidence....
If you don't understand why you must start with a clear hypothesis, let me give you an easy example.....
No one will believe me, but my last time at craps this was my sequence of seven rolls.... 7,7,10, 11,11,2, 7 out....
The odds of me rolling those consecutive numbers is around THIRTY MILLION to ONE against!!!! And I swear I did it!!!
If I showed you a video of that epic roll would it mean anything to anyone? Of course not!

Quote: MathExtremist

Yes, but one could still multiply through by the average resolution time to get an average number of rolls (vs bets) to see three hard 8s in a row. 3.2727 * 1463 = 4788. Thus, 4788 is the average number of dice rolls with a streak of three hard 8 winners.

Note: according to the streak calculator and the resolution time, the number of rolls to expect a 50% chance of having seen a streak of three hard 8 winners is 3319.

Edit: While I was typing this, 7craps posited that the ternary (multinomial) nature of the hard 8 wager invalidates the computations for mean waiting time. I'm not sure this is the case when the third outcome is irrelevant to the question of the wager. Analogy: if a binomial process is a 1-D random walk {+9, -1}, a multinomial process with one or more irrelevant outcomes {+9, -1, 0} is still a 1-D random walk but sometimes you just sit there. I could be wrong, but I don't have time right now to properly investigate.

I am searching my data.
ME, I think you are absolutely right.

My hardways files are so frickin' messed up.
Many show Hard8 only but are for both Hard6 &Hard8 at the same time.
Re-do time.

Guido111 looks like his median of 568 resolutions was for a Hard4 or 10.
I get
1013 49.955068%
1014 49.989320%
1015 50.023548%
1016 50.057753%

1015 * (36/11)
3322 total rolls for the median

What is more important is the size of the total losses before one hits the parlay.

Thanks

Thanks. SOOPOO. It will probably take me longer to figure out how to conduct the science than anything. So I apologize if I'm slow one responding to the suggestions. I will make it a point to map out my needs in this area. My brain is really preoccupied with things related to motor memory right now.

Hypothetically speaking, if I really could influence the dice to hit hard ways, I wouldn't be trying to convince anybody of that skill on Internet forums, but rather you'd find me in Australia quietly doing it, where the hard ways pay 7.5 and 9.5 to 1, as opposed to the 7 and 9 here.

Quote: Wizard

Hypothetically speaking, if I really could influence the dice to hit hard ways, I wouldn't be trying to convince anybody of that skill on Internet forums, but rather you'd find me in Australia quietly doing it, where the hard ways pay 7.5 and 9.5 to 1, as opposed to the 7 and 9 here.

Always a spoil sport bringing logic into a forum discussion.

Quote: 7craps

I am searching my data.
ME, I think you are absolutely right.

My hardways files are so frickin' messed up.
Many show Hard8 only but are for both Hard6 &Hard8 at the same time.
Re-do time.

Guido111 looks like his median of 568 resolutions was for a Hard4 or 10.
I get
1013 49.955068%
1014 49.989320%
1015 50.023548%
1016 50.057753%

1015 * (36/11)
3322 total rolls for the median

What is more important is the size of the total losses before one hits the parlay.

Thanks
More later

Thanks for all the assistance, guys. I'll post up more of my data when I get home today. Posting the video takes a while, but posting the roll results and statistics is really easy. I can even automate generating a movie from my software that shows the charts animating with the roll results. I planned to do that to superimpose on the other stuff as it's really hard to see that on the laptop screen. A quicktime file that's easily scrubbed backwards and forwards with the charts and histograms and roll history is what I sort of have in mind to help visualize things.

Quote: Wizard

Hypothetically speaking, if I really could influence the dice to hit hard ways, I wouldn't be trying to convince anybody of that skill on Internet forums, but rather you'd find me in Australia quietly doing it, where the hard ways pay 7.5 and 9.5 to 1, as opposed to the 7 and 9 here.

Hey. I had no idea about that. Awesome and thanks for the info.

Quote: Ahigh

Hey. I had no idea about that. Awesome and thanks for the info.

You're welcome. At least something came out of this discussion.

Quote: Wizard

You're welcome. At least something came out of this discussion.

England has them also.
Just look at Bad Company's Straight Shooter Album cover - both sides.
From 1975

FWIW, That album got me into Craps
Come on, anything with Paul Rodgers
Wiki has a better photo for the H6&H8

Quote: 7craps

I am searching my data.
ME, I think you are absolutely right.

Complete.
ME, I know you are absolutely right.

That makes it very simple on the math side.

I was remembering the messy math when both H6&H8 made together where a loss could be -1 or -2.

Good work

Quote: 7craps

England has them also.

Three cheers for England!

Quote: 7craps

1015 * (36/11)
3322 total rolls for the median

What is more important is the size of the total losses before one hits the parlay.

Thanks

For example, Hard8 twice in a row.
Play until it happens.
Average number of resolutions is 132
=(1/P^R)*((1-P^R)/(1-P))
Average number of rolls per resolution is 36/11

132*(36/11) = 432 total dice rolls on average
The median for a run distribution is very close to 70% of the average so 0.70*432 is close without looking. (302)
(The 70% figure is probably true for most geometric type distributions)

Without going into total action etc, the total win a $1 parlay twice is $100
Average unit total loss before a 2 parlay win is 121 units (simulation) median loss was 84units
The median makes many feel and believe that the game is beatable.
This is for all random rolls.

Anyone that claims or can overcome those losses on hardways,
less loss and more win,
with some kind of unorthodox style of DI should be getting a syndicate together and go for bank until the day the mojo dies.

Just saying if I was King

Just got a Nikon D5100 today at Fry's. It will be about two weeks before I'll have everything I need, but I got some specific plans for what I'm going to do with this camera that should be pretty neat.

Quote: MathExtremist

Yes, but one could still multiply through by the average resolution time to get an average number of rolls (vs bets) to see three hard 8s in a row. 3.2727 * 1463 = 4788. Thus, 4788 is the average number of dice rolls with a streak of three hard 8 winners.

Note: according to the streak calculator and the resolution time, the number of rolls to expect a 50% chance of having seen a streak of three hard 8 winners is 3319.

Thanks MathExtremist.
Looks to be the proven method.

Now, Two ways to look over the OPs hardways streak claims.
Total and resolved rolls

Quote: Ahigh

I am on a mission to prove that influencing the dice is possible.

Ahigh let me end your mission for you. We all know it is possbile. We just don't know anyone who can do it consistentlly enough that we can can enshrine this person in the craps hall of fame.

Thanks for all the help and interest guys.

Quote: 7craps

England has them also.
Just look at Bad Company's Straight Shooter Album cover - both sides.
From 1975

I never knew about this album cover. That is so awesome. I am going to make it into a T-Shirt.

Quote: Ahigh
I am on a mission to prove that influencing the dice is possible.

The secret to influencing dice is to own a casino.

Here's the roll data for the entire session:

64`33`53`11`53`41`21`22`53`52`62`54`23`62`62`44`31`53`22`62`54`54`11`66`43`31`42`31`22`42
54`55`12`23`52`43`51`63`54`12`51`54`44`54`31`31`44`55`62`51`54`61`51`55`43`52`12`43`53`22
53`53`55`11`43`66`61`23`41`54`23`55`51`64`41`42`12`64`64`53`53`23`54`56`31`55`33`41`64`12
23`31`66`43`32`45`56`62`31`64`44`12`44`31`42`41`51`54`45`31`65`33`44`11`51`51`23`22`65`31
63`54`66`31`23`54`33`41`23



I have GoPro footage for the whole session, but I had a camera malfunction (forgot to start recording) on the XR550 until a few rolls in. The entire session lasted 45 minutes I believe.

Also recorded the audio on a Zoom dedicated stand-alone microphone.

I went to a lot of trouble to try to prove that I really did this after being told "bullshit" on my last recording session.

I'm glad I got the XR550V camera fired up before the three hard 8's. LOL.

Even if all that comes out of this is fun and entertainment, I am absolutely enjoying all of this and I want to thank everyone for their continued interest in following along and helping me with the parts I don't understand like some of the more advanced math.

In your 129 dice rolls
32 are 7s and 8s... these are the only rolls that matter.
11 7s (only 50% less than expected) No mention of that.
21 8s where 6 are Hard8

Run Lengths: 1,2,3

Probability of 2 in a row Hard 8s at least 1 time in 32 rolls is about
1 in 4.72
at least 2 times in 32 rolls is about
1 in 48.34

Probability of 3 in a row Hard 8s at least 1 time in 32 rolls is about
1 in 49.03
at least 2 times in 32 rolls is about
1 in 6,110.41

This can only be judged against all your dice rolls and sessions. Sample size.


Again, there are free throw shooters in the world that can make 500 in a row.
On a real court, regulation basketball etc.
But they do not do it where it counts. In a real game.

You are doing this at home, nothing in the way, no distractions, none of your money bet... not in a real actual casino situation.

Like a singer with a fantastic voice, once in the studio and on the spot because the recording button is on, can't sing right.

The only proof lies in the casino. All you have to do is shoot the dice.
AlanM will do all the recording.

Do it

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
added: I ran some numbers on a data set you placed somewhere else.
In your 1429 roll sample.

#7: 232
#8: 176
#H8: 42

408 rolls of 7s and 8s... these count

Expected number of runs of Hard8s: 33.7273
Len Average #
1- 30.668670
2- 2.781231
3- 0.252218
4- 0.022872
5- 0.002074
6- 0.000188
7- 0.000017
Probability of at least 1 run of length 3
0.2427292
1 in 4.12

Probability of at least 1 run of length 4
0.0248466
1 in 40.25


Actual rolled and counted
Len Average #
1- 32
2- 5
3- 0
4- 0

Between the two samples of 440 rolls
You show 6 runs of 2
1 run of 3

Quote: guido111

Again, there are free throw shooters in the world that can make 500 in a row.
On a real court, regulation basketball etc.
But they do not do it where it counts. In a real game.

The only proof lies in the casino. All you have to do is shoot the dice.
AlanM will do all the recording.

Yes, I'm still ready and willing to do the video and to witness.

Regarding basketball free throws, an aside:

I played in high school and we had an incredible record for making free throws. As our coach told us, "a free throw is a free point. You can't blow it." And so every practice -- every practice -- included a half hour of free throw practice.

And then -- if we missed a free throw in an actual game -- we had to run a mile for each one we missed. We didn't miss many free throws. And that was an important lesson in life: you don't miss out on what's given to you to take for free. Teach that to your kids. Its been more than 40 years since I played basketball, but it's a lesson I never forgot.

Quote: buzzpaff

Quote: Ahigh
I am on a mission to prove that influencing the dice is possible.

The secret to influencing dice is to own a casino.

With all this exceptional talent, this casino craps event talked about should be a slam dunk.

The OP has shown and believes he is a DI that can deliver, but he has this ugly fear factor to get over.

AlanM is a very good TV guy, just like Huell Howser for you SoCal tv viewers.

The at home demonstrations the OP is into means nothing to many only to those that are easily impressed.

Set the date, the casino and the time, bring these two groups together,
I will bring my money and bet, at first, with this DI.
Hey, I gots variance on my side too.

All this forum has produced so far was the failed attempt of 98steps,
because he used a shortcut and did only 88 steps.

I made 343 passes in a row at home. The grand kids erased the tape, but I have the dice as proof.

Quote: buzzpaff

I made 343 passes in a row at home. The grand kids erased the tape, but I have the dice as proof.

what? passing gas?
I can easily do better.

Camera!
Action!

I think we need to get the myth busters show on this one and see what kind of crazy contraption they make that can throw the dice the exact same way every time. Has anyone seen a robotic arm dice thrower yet?

The MythBusters concept is good, but I'm pretty sure that this is a tougher thing than what they could reasonably hope to resolve in one or two shows.

Plus generally nobody cares in the "real world" of normal people. I know that first hand.

7craps, and buzz, thanks for the jokes, boys. I'm laughing on the inside where it counts.

I once proposed a mechanical, robotic arm, and if one was built, yes, using the same set and targeting the same spot on a table with the same force and tragectory would result in duplicate throws. That's just basic physics: for every action there is a reaction.

But humans can't precisely hit the same spot over and over again with the same force, trajectory, etc.

But let's step back for a minute:

The issue here is not duplicating the same exact result over and over again. I don't think anyone has ever claimed that with dice control someone can throw a hard-8 on demand or dozens of times in a row.

Dice control, and dice influencing, is theoretically about either increasing or decreasing the appearance of the 7. Of course our new friend Ahigh claims to have taken DI/DC to a higher level.

But the issue is not really if a mechanical arm can do it. I accept that a mechanical arm can successfully influence and control dice by targeting the same exact spot on a table with the same force and trajectory. But that doesn't prove any human can do it.

The robotic arm can only prove that it is possible, and I think all of us agree it's "possible" because anything is possible, even flipping a coin and having it land on its edge. (That was a great Twilight Zone by the way.)

Quote: guido111

In your 129 dice rolls
32 are 7s and 8s... these are the only rolls that matter.
11 7s (only 50% less than expected) No mention of that.
21 8s where 6 are Hard8

Run Lengths: 1,2,3

Probability of 2 in a row Hard 8s at least 1 time in 32 rolls is about
1 in 4.72
at least 2 times in 32 rolls is about
1 in 48.34

Probability of 3 in a row Hard 8s at least 1 time in 32 rolls is about
1 in 49.03
at least 2 times in 32 rolls is about
1 in 6,110.41

This can only be judged against all your dice rolls and sessions. Sample size.


Again, there are free throw shooters in the world that can make 500 in a row.
On a real court, regulation basketball etc.
But they do not do it where it counts. In a real game.

You are doing this at home, nothing in the way, no distractions, none of your money bet... not in a real actual casino situation.

Like a singer with a fantastic voice, once in the studio and on the spot because the recording button is on, can't sing right.

The only proof lies in the casino. All you have to do is shoot the dice.
AlanM will do all the recording.

Do it

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
added: I ran some numbers on a data set you placed somewhere else.
In your 1429 roll sample.

#7: 232
#8: 176
#H8: 42

408 rolls of 7s and 8s... these count

Expected number of runs of Hard8s: 33.7273
Len Average #
1- 30.668670
2- 2.781231
3- 0.252218
4- 0.022872
5- 0.002074
6- 0.000188
7- 0.000017
Probability of at least 1 run of length 3
0.2427292
1 in 4.12

Probability of at least 1 run of length 4
0.0248466
1 in 40.25


Actual rolled and counted
Len Average #
1- 32
2- 5
3- 0
4- 0

Between the two samples of 440 rolls
You show 6 runs of 2
1 run of 3

An important thing to note is that I changed my set between the 1429 rolls and this more recent session.

The previous set I was using was 6262 -- hardways set - six up two on my thumb fives on my fingers.
The most recent run was a 4242 set. Because I was heavy on boxcars and I wanted a hardway instead, I rotated both of the dice in my set.

Quote: Ahigh

An important thing to note is that I changed my set between the 1429 rolls and this more recent session.

The previous set I was using was 6262 -- hardways set - six up two on my thumb fives on my fingers.
The most recent run was a 4242 set. Because I was heavy on boxcars and I wanted a hardway instead, I rotated both of the dice in my set.

I'm sorry, but I can't possibly believe that your "set" has any bearing on the results of your throws which are not only from the end of the table, but also do not hit the back wall in the flat center, do not appear to remain on axis at any point, and do not softly bounce off the back wall.

Unless, perhaps, you are using enough glue to hold the dice together and then attaching invisible velcro so that the correct faces stick to the felt?

Quote: AlanMendelson

I'm sorry, but I can't possibly believe that your "set" has any bearing on the results of your throws which are not only from the end of the table, but also do not hit the back wall in the flat center, do not appear to remain on axis at any point, and do not softly bounce off the back wall.

Unless, perhaps, you are using enough glue to hold the dice together and then attaching invisible velcro so that the correct faces stick to the felt?

I have just realized the error in what I have been doing, and the genius of the Wizard. I will keep you guys updated with what happens next.

Quote: Ahigh

I have just realized the error in what I have been doing

Only one error?

We all make math calculation mistakes.
You seen to enjoy calculating house advantage with all bets at risk instead of just all bets resolved. That is just a minor issue.

Or is it your craps optimal style of play?
That could use it's own thread.

It better be something as simple as using your left hand instead of tossing the dice with your right.
Or having just one eye open as you toss instead of both.

Your on-going claim (pairs and hardways dominance)
is that you want to be the best craps shooter ever (?) and you have come across things that seem way out of this craps world that only you have studied and witnessed and have come to the conclusion you have a special talent.
OK. Great!


What casino and when?

Do not fear striking out or losing one battle of the war.
Most champions win just 3 out of 5 or
4 out of 7
not 100%

Quote: guido111

Only one error?

We all make math calculation mistakes.
You seen to enjoy calculating house advantage with all bets at risk instead of just all bets resolved. That is just a minor issue.

You can make bets that are not marked on the felt.

Consider this bet: I bet I can roll a 4 or a 10 before a seven. Let's call the bet "4or10" okay.

I just made up this bet.

And I can combine two bets on the table to get this bet I made up.

The chance of getting it is 50/50.

When I get paid, the bet is over, so I take down both bets on the table I used to construct this bet of my own (the two buy bets).

It is you who are wrong on this point, and the Wizard would tell you if he took the time to do so.

The edge for this bet I call "4or10" at $50 in a Vegas casino is 1.00%

I am right and you are wrong.

Quote: guido111

Or is it your craps optimal style of play?
That could use it's own thread.

It better be something as simple as using your left hand instead of tossing the dice with your right.
Or having just one eye open as you toss instead of both.

Your on-going claim (pairs and hardways dominance)
is that you want to be the best craps shooter ever (?) and you have come across things that seem way out of this craps world that only you have studied and witnessed and have come to the conclusion you have a special talent.
OK. Great!

Nope. Not out of the craps world, the 1.00% claim on the edge on what I call the "4or10" bet as above when betting for $50. Not wrong. You just do not understand it is all. That doesn't make me wrong. It makes you wrong.

Quote: guido111

What casino and when?

You choose. I already told you my casino of choice is the Silverton. I've been there and people have won hard 8's on my rolls since I posted up here and they threw in tips for me. Where were you?

Quote: guido111

Do not fear striking out or losing one battle of the war.
Most champions win just 3 out of 5 or
4 out of 7
not 100%

Thanks for your comments. And thanks in advance for admitting that you were wrong.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/11356-what-are-the-odds/3/#post183638

Quote: Ahigh

250/20000 = 1.25% edge for the event. Better than all on the pass. Better edge than all on the don't.
...
please correct me on anything I'm doing wrong here.

Quote: MathExtremist

Your denominator is incorrectly inflated. You shouldn't include the action for the unresolved bets.
50% of the time you win 9750 on action of 5000, and 50% of the time you lose 10000 on action of 10000. EV = (0.5*9750 - 0.5*10000) / (0.5*5000 + 0.5*10000) = -125/7500 = -1.667%.

you have been corrected before

Most calculate multiple outcome house edges this way.
I have see the Wizard do it this way for multiple bets when only one bet is resolved.
I think I have also seen him do it another way. I need to find the links.


$50 Buy 4 AND $50 Buy 10.
Total at risk = $100
(too powerful a bet for most craps players)

4 or 10 hits, the bets come down

Player either nets $98 ($2 vig) or $0
Handle is either $50 or $100
"A bet which reaches a winning or losing decision is said to have had action.
The amount of money that is utilized when the bet wins or loses is the amount of action.
This amount can also be called the handle or turnover."

= (0.5*98 - 0.5*100) / (0.5*50 + 0.5*100) = 1.33% HE
EV / action (or average total resolved bet)


Many mistakenly calculate this way
= (0.5*98 - 0.5*100) / (100) = 1.0% HE
ev/total bets at risk

It is not really a bad mistake, it just mixes apples and oranges and treats them as one and the same.

Now, simulate this exact craps style of play.
easy to do.
The results are surprising.
Remember both bets come down after a win.

Question is: Do we now put them both back up to win again after a win
or do we first wait for a 7 to roll then make the bet again?

" Question is: Do we now put them both back up to win again after a win
or do we first wait for a 7 to roll then make the bet again? "

I would wait in a strip club while I decided which game to play next.