CrapsForever
CrapsForever
Joined: Mar 6, 2012
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August 26th, 2012 at 7:33:29 PM permalink
It's just not worth arguing with him. Don't stoop to his level and risk being suspended from the forum. Apparently he has some kind of immunity because the manner he writes to a lot of people on this board seem like grounds for a suspension. Maybe I'm missing something there...

Regarding the Hardway streak; it's interesting that I have seen the SAME Hardway # thrown 3 times in a row numerous times (At least 10 times); I have personally done it once but I have never seen the same Hardway thrown 4 times in a row. I have seen someone throw 8 Hardways successively; He threw each Hardway once, then threw each Hardway again without any other #'s thrown in-between the Hardway rolls.
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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August 26th, 2012 at 7:43:45 PM permalink
Quote: CrapsForever

It's just not worth arguing with him. Don't stoop to his level and risk being suspended from the forum. Apparently he has some kind of immunity because the manner he writes to a lot of people on this board seem like grounds for a suspension. Maybe I'm missing something there...

Regarding the Hardway streak; it's interesting that I have seen the SAME Hardway # thrown 3 times in a row numerous times (At least 10 times); I have personally done it once but I have never seen the same Hardway thrown 4 times in a row. I have seen someone throw 8 Hardways successively; He threw each Hardway once, then threw each Hardway again without any other #'s thrown in-between the Hardway rolls.



Yeah, I didn't have to read more than 4 of his posts to realize the issue was with him. And yeah I think I'm done with the troll no matter what he comes up with.

I do think it's great when people write simulators, but this guy has issues for sure.

I've been looking for any four pairs in a row for a couple years now and yeah I haven't seen it.

Obviously four of any pair, I've seen many times. I've done 4 of the same pair in 5 rolls with a pair in between twice!

But no same pair four in a row yet.

I still have a lot of work to do, and I have to stay focused away from the distractions like 7 craps and other people who divert my energy. It's good practice I guess to run into this kind of thing without losing too much time. But I generally just stay on my own forum to deal with it.
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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August 27th, 2012 at 2:04:13 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh


When I make an odds bet on the 6 or 8, the edge on the passline has already gone up from 1.41% to 9.09%.

You are still wrong but I understand you will never admit to you being wrong as you in your own mind is always right.

In other words, Your statement is false.

The edge never changes for pass line and come bets.
The edge (-7/495) is an AVERAGE of all the possible outcomes.
That is why it can not and never does change.
There are many paths it takes and the edge of each and every path is different.

I see that the Wizard himself has never said the pass line edge of 1.414% ever changes.
It is 1.414% over all possible outcomes.

What known gaming mathematician can you quote that agrees with your error filled statement?

The Wizard?
Dr Edward Thorp?
Stewart Ethier?
Alan Krigman?
Donald Catlin?
Henk Tijms?


You then are 100% against the Wizard and his math on this one.


Your math with mixing a 2 stage bet as in any line bet to a one stage put bet as being the same as an -1/11 house edge is
exactly how not to compare apples to apples, instead you compare apples to rocks and say they are one and the same.

I wonder if the Wizard would actually agree with your statement.
He sure stays very silent on most Craps questions and debates, and he is a winner of the $100K LVH Craps Tournament.

Remember the rules
Destroy the message but
not the messenger
I Heart Vi Hart
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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August 27th, 2012 at 2:23:59 PM permalink
removed
silly
I Heart Vi Hart
aahigh
aahigh
Joined: Dec 10, 2010
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August 27th, 2012 at 2:29:56 PM permalink
So, let us assume that I am wrong.

When I make a passline bet after the point is established to a 6 or an 8, what I understand is a put bet, what would *you* tell me the edge is on that bet?

Give me a numerical answer, and then we can move on to establishing that I am wrong if you are in fact correct.

My point is that the money on top of the felt marked "passline" is no longer a passline bet.

If you are saying that I am wrong, and that it is still considered a passline bet, tell me how I can bet on ANY already-established point for a 1.41% edge, and I will readily admit that I am wrong.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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August 27th, 2012 at 2:40:45 PM permalink
We can assume you have never taken any math class above the high school level or any statistics class at all, correct, aahigh?
At the time you make a pass line bet the house has that nefarious 1.41% edge. That is calculated by summing the likelihood of you winning immediately with a seven or eleven, losing immediately with a two, three, or twelve, or establishing a point and either winning by hitting the point, or losing by hitting a seven first. YES- once you have a point of 6, you will win 5/11 of the time and lose 6/11 of the time. So, YES, once you have established that point the likelihood of you winning gives the house a 9% edge, but that is a MOOT point. Since no reasonable player will be betting on the passline after a point has been established, (rare exception of casino that offers ridiculously high (100x) odds), what is YOUR point?
aahigh
aahigh
Joined: Dec 10, 2010
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 77
August 27th, 2012 at 2:40:52 PM permalink
Quote: aahigh

So, let us assume that I am wrong.

When I make a passline bet after the point is established to a 6 or an 8, what I understand is a put bet, what would *you* tell me the edge is on that bet?

Give me a numerical answer, and then we can move on to establishing that I am wrong if you are in fact correct.

My point is that the money on top of the felt marked "passline" is no longer a passline bet.

If you are saying that I am wrong, and that it is still considered a passline bet, tell me how I can bet on ANY already-established point for a 1.41% edge, and I will readily admit that I am wrong.



And just to clarify, I am not claiming that the edge on the passline bet itself changes. I am saying that the chip on the felt on the passline actually transforms into another bet known as the put bet when you roll a point. You can either say that the edge changes for the new bet known as a put bet, or you can say that your chances of winning the flat bet changes at that time, but the truth is that you have lost _something_ whether it is expressed as an edge or chances of winning, you have suffered as a result of rolling a box number on the passline.

But, yeah, school me. The thing I really take offense to is being SHUT DOWN, including by the Wizard himself. I don't post up here a lot, but I absolutely believe that there are trolls on this board. Go and read all the things that 7 craps said about my posts. They are ABSOLUTELY DENIGRATING and even SLANDEROUS. Abide by the rules, sure maybe. So what? Punish the new guy and let the craps dealer push me around?

If that's the way the Wizard wants to run his board, apparently I'm not the only one taking notice of the effects of just blindly following rules without regards to how it affects new people wanting to post good information on the board.

If everybody gangs up on me and says "Hey Ahigh you are an idiot and you know nothing" sure I will get lost. No problem.

But here's my question:

WHAT THE FREAKING HELL PEOPLE? WHY THE HELL ARE YOU GANGING UP ON ME?
aahigh
aahigh
Joined: Dec 10, 2010
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  • Posts: 77
August 27th, 2012 at 2:43:10 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

We can assume you have never taken any math class above the high school level or any statistics class at all, correct, aahigh?
At the time you make a pass line bet the house has that nefarious 1.41% edge. That is calculated by summing the likelihood of you winning immediately with a seven or eleven, losing immediately with a two, three, or twelve, or establishing a point and either winning by hitting the point, or losing by hitting a seven first. YES- once you have a point of 6, you will win 5/11 of the time and lose 6/11 of the time. So, YES, once you have established that point the likelihood of you winning gives the house a 9% edge, but that is a MOOT point. Since no reasonable player will be betting on the passline after a point has been established, (rare exception of casino that offers ridiculously high (100x) odds), what is YOUR point?



You would be wrong. I graduated with honors from Texas A&M in 1991. I took a class in Discrete and Combinatorial Mathematics as well as two Statistics classes. I majored in Computer Science and minored in Electrical Engineering.

If you read the first page of this thread, you would see my setup at home along with a statistical graph of outcomes created with GnuPlot from the software that I wrote.



I am a "Staff R&D Game/GFX engineer" for IGT. IGT is the largest slot machine manufacturer in the world.

Here is a link to my linked in profile:

http://www.linkedin.com/in/ahigh

You will find plenty of people vouching for my intelligence.

I have been programming video games for over 25 years.

The post accusing me of being stupid after I have all this evidence IN THE SAME THREAD is exactly what I'm talking about what is wrong with this forum.

It seems like people don't even read this stuff, they just jump on ANY OPPORTUNITY TO ATTACK SOMEONE.
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
  • Threads: 25
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August 27th, 2012 at 2:46:51 PM permalink
Quote: aahigh

So, let us assume that I am wrong.

When I make a passline bet after the point is established to a 6 or an 8, what I understand is a put bet, what would *you* tell me what the edge is on that bet?

What you just said makes no sense at all.
You are still trying to say a pass line bet and a put bet are the same thing. They are not. They can never be.

You do NOT make a pass line bet after a point is established on a point of 6 or 8.
It is absolutely IMPOSSIBLE to be done. even if you think you are because you are placing your money in the pass line box.

One is now making a "put bet" on the 6 or 8.
http://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/
under put bets

Why ask me?
PM the Wizard so he can answer it himself.
He was the one that banned you for something.
You will maybe believe him way more than some fat ugly 22 y/o girl like myself.
(let me see if I get banned for saying nasty things about myself, even if they are true)

Once a put bet is made, or odds bet is taken,
the winning probability and losing probability, for that put bet or odds bet is NOW exactly the same as a place bet for the same number.


Do not agree with me, find the answer from the Wizard and prove HIM wrong.
He has been proven wrong on many things he has posted on the internet.
It does not seem to bother him, I guess he would rather have any mistakes pointed out so they can be corrected.
Time to gang up on him and see who is left standing.
I Heart Vi Hart
aahigh
aahigh
Joined: Dec 10, 2010
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August 27th, 2012 at 2:49:38 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

What you just said makes no sense at all.
You are still trying to say a pass line bet and a put bet are the same thing. They are not. They can never be.

You do NOT make a pass line bet after a point is established on a point of 6 or 8.
It is absolutely IMPOSSIBLE to be done. even if you think you are because you are placing your money in the pass line box.

One is now making a "put bet" on the 6 or 8.
http://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/
under put bets

Why ask me?
PM the Wizard so he can answer it himself.
He was the one that banned you for something.
You will maybe believe him way more than some fat ugly 22 y/o girl like myself.
(let me see if I get banned for saying nasty things about myself, even if they are true)

Once a put bet is made, or odds bet is taken,
the winning probability and losing probability, for that put bet or odds bet is NOW exactly the same as a place bet for the same number.


Do not agree with me, find the answer from the Wizard and prove HIM wrong.
He has been proven wrong on many things he has posted on the internet.
It does not seem to bother him, I guess he would rather have any mistakes pointed out so they can be corrected.
Time to gang up on him and see who is left standing.



This is absolutely an argument about semantics. If you want to claim that you can't bet the line after the point is established, it's just a matter of what the bet is called when you put a chip on the passline.

Additionally, if you actually read what I wrote, you would see that I already knew that the chip on the passline is called a put bet after the point is established.

If you walked up to the table after the point is established, how would you tell who had a put bet and who had a line bet?

You don't. So if you can't tell if you walk up after the point is established, what is the difference between them in reality at that point?

I think it makes perfect sense to consider that they are all put bets at that point no matter how they were obtained, they are all put bets. Only someone who knows whether a bet just went up or not can distinguish between a pass line bet and a put bet.

Additionally, you actually lose something when the point is established.

Nobody is going to argue these points. We can argue all day long about what the bets are called and so on.

But all of this amounts to people just attacking me. And I think that some of the attacks are purely selfish in nature. I can't imagine how it helps ANYONE besides the person doing the attacking on me. And I have been through this on here before.

In the end, if the Wizard comes in here and bans me for life, that's totally okay by me.

But you guys are the ones left with this wonderful world where somebody comes in here and gets ransacked over some semantics of whether it's a put bet or a passline bet or whatever the hell that generally nobody even cares about.

It's just rather ridiculous to have these conversations if you ask me.

But if you want to say I'm stupid, just keep on with that, and we'll see how stupid I am.

I think it just makes all you guys look bad to attack me and everybody else on here all day long.

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