Blackjack - Ace/Five Count

Reading the Wizard's Ace/Five Count (Appendix 17 on his Wizard of Odds Blackjack Page), the Wizard suggests raising you bet when the count is 2 or greater, and keeping your bet the minimum when it is 1 or less (including negative) you should bet the smallest amount.

My question is why only bet more when the count is 2 or higher. Shouldn't it be a positive expectation game when the count is 1 or higher? Could someone explain this math to me?

For those who don't know the Ace/Five Count, you add 1 for every five played and subtract one for every ace played. All other cards have zero value.

Quote: gambler

Reading the Wizard's Ace/Five Count (Appendix 17 on his Wizard of Odds Blackjack Page), the Wizard suggests raising you bet when the count is 2 or greater, and keeping your bet the minimum when it is 1 or less (including negative) you should bet the smallest amount.

My question is why only bet more when the count is 2 or higher. Shouldn't it be a positive expectation game when the count is 1 or higher? Could someone explain this math to me?

For those who don't know the Ace/Five Count, you add 1 for every five played and subtract one for every ace played. All other cards have zero value.

My only guess is that either a difference of 1 isn't great enough to justify the raise, or because if the dealer has an ace up, now you are at a count of zero.

But to be honest, I don't know and I was wondering this myself :)...Glad you asked.

The reason is that A/5 has an offset of -2 for stand 17 Blackjack. I would direct you to http://www.am3radio.us/Ace5.pdf for a bit better understanding.
Essentially in shoe games with 4 or more decks, it takes a +2 condition to have an even game or better. This was tested using billions of hands. At the pdf page, the effect is rendered differently: start at -2 and use the score to indicate "zero" as an even game and "+" scores as an advantage. In reality, the "zero" score is slightly positive if using the Missouri Cover.