Blackjack Card Counting Question - 1 Unit Increase/Decrease
As I understand it, when the "count" is in favor of the player, one should raise their bet as dramatically as the house would allow them to, without attracting too much attention. When the count is against the player and in favor of the dealer, one should make your bet as small as possible, without attracting too much attention from the casino pit staff or eye-in-the-sky.
What I wanted to know would be how much difference it would make if you are only increasing or decreasing your bet by one unit, based upon the count.
For example:
When count is in favor of the dealer, bet $100. When the count is in favor of the player, bet $200.
The reason I ask is that I would believe that a 1 unit increase or decrease would probably not attract very much heat or attention. Especially at blackjack tables with favorable rules, the house edge isn't that high when a player uses basic strategy (perhaps 0.5% or less). Would using a 1-to-2 unit system be enough to reduce this house edge to something close to 0%? Would it have to be a 1-to-3 unit system?
Your thoughts and suggestions are welcome.
If you are a counter with a moderate bankroll working alone, it is nearly impossible to make large sums of money counting.
Think of all the variables you have to overcome.
First you must find the most favorable rules available.
Then you have to have basic strategy for those rules down cold.
Ok, that's the easy part.
Now you memorize about twenty plays that are advantageous to deviate from basic.
You have to count every card, without being distracted.
This is easier when playing heads up but you can't always control that.
You have to wait for the count to be significantly positive (if using hi/lo or balanced system).
You have to also have the ability to spread your bets a significant enough amount to capitalize on the advantage.
You have to also have luck that you will draw the cards you expect to be in your favor.
At any point in this process you can draw attention, by deviating from basic strategy on the key plays and varying bet size.
Varying from 100 to 200 is not going to significantly increase your end result.
Most counters spread about 1-5 in pitch and about 1-8 in shoe games.
If you think of gaining an edge of .5 to 1.5% this really does not amount to much.
That's like winning an extra hand per hour at best, that's why you need the large spread.
You need to have a large enough bankroll to cover inevitable losses as well.
Basically, it is said, if you can afford to count, you don't need the money from counting.
It ain't what it's cracked up to be...
But I still do it, and I'm ahead of the game
Check out Stanford Wongs site sometime...
...http://bj21.com/bj_reference/pages/9541.html
If your goal is simply to put yourself into a break-even situation, you'd be better off forgetting about counting and instead learning all of the ins and outs of various comp systems and then getting creative. With some basic math and a thorough understanding of how comps work at a particular property, a clever player can fairly easily erase the house edge, or even gain a slight advantage over the house in terms of cash back, comps, gifts, drawings, tournament entries, etc.
Quote: gamblerNote: I have always been a casual blackjack player, able to play basic strategy well, but never really taking up card counting.
As I understand it, when the "count" is in favor of the player, one should raise their bet as dramatically as the house would allow them to, without attracting too much attention. When the count is against the player and in favor of the dealer, one should make your bet as small as possible, without attracting too much attention from the casino pit staff or eye-in-the-sky.
What I wanted to know would be how much difference it would make if you are only increasing or decreasing your bet by one unit, based upon the count.
For example:
When count is in favor of the dealer, bet $100. When the count is in favor of the player, bet $200.
The reason I ask is that I would believe that a 1 unit increase or decrease would probably not attract very much heat or attention. Especially at blackjack tables with favorable rules, the house edge isn't that high when a player uses basic strategy (perhaps 0.5% or less). Would using a 1-to-2 unit system be enough to reduce this house edge to something close to 0%? Would it have to be a 1-to-3 unit system?
Your thoughts and suggestions are welcome.
If you are betting black with a 1-2 spread you will get a lot of attention in the form of free rooms, dining and other offers. You will not get heat and you will not be a long term winner. A 0.5% HE shoe game requires at the very least a 1-8 spread, wonging and index play to make a profit. You shouldn't be betting the same amount at TC +1 and at TC +5 or higher which is what you are doing. You want the money out there when it's called for. I would hit that game with at least a 1-16 spread.
WongBo mentioned bankroll which is something many players don't consider. There are different formulas for this very critical aspect of the game depending on your play and your goals. Many card counters have a bankroll of 100 times their max bet.
And how much of a bank roll you have to have to start with in the first place just to get that very little bit out.Quote: WongBoThe dirty little secret about counting that seldom gets discussed is how much work you have to put into it to get very little out.
Its enough to make you have doubts to begin with and then when that woman in the low cut dress sits next to you and bets only the minimum and murmers you might as well come upstairs with me honey, they've already made you as a counter, it sort of seems foolish to think that anyone is going to come out and shake hands with the new-owner of his casino. Ain't gonna happen.
8 deck, S17, 3:2, DAS3, NRSA, ES., 75% deep
It's nearly dead even HE.
I've been spreading about 2-10 on a $50 minimum.
I've only been playing for about 3 weeks, about 50 hours total.
I am only up $4,000 and I am ahead of the theoretical percentage.
This is about all I feel I can get away with at this particular place.
I've been active for about 25 years and
I'm bankrolling this with 75k.
So you can make money but it is a grind.
And you have to have a pretty convincing act which is another chore.
The pit has been in my face A LOT, all smiles and small talk so far, but it's just a matter of time....
I definitely recommend that all player burn basic into their heads for different rule sets,
And I definitely recommend learning at least one counting system.
But I'm not sure the average guy has the stomach for how much effort goes into it for so little in return.
Quote: WongBoI recently discovered a new game:
8 deck, S17, 3:2, DAS3, NRSA, ES., 75% deep
It's nearly dead even HE.
I know that ES is great, especially for a counter, but I never would have thought that rule would bring the HE to nearly even.
Is it possible to early surrender and also take insurance?
Quote: RogerKintI know that ES is great, especially for a counter, but I never would have thought that rule would bring the HE to nearly even.
I think someone is confused, and for once it is not me.
That game would have he of 00.44? Early surrender against a 10 is worth .24, against an Ace is .39.
Seriously doubt they offer ES against an ACE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quote: RogerKintI know that ES is great, especially for a counter, but I never would have thought that rule would bring the HE to nearly even.
Is it possible to early surrender and also take insurance?
Using the Wizard's chart here on rule variations, early surrender against a ten is worth .24%. The game as stated is already very generous, showing a .38% edge using the house edge calculator (not sure if DAS3 is meant that you can resplit to only 3 hands).
So yeah, it's a very close to even game, .1 to .2 off the top. If ES is also allowed against an ace, then it's positive off the top and you should flat bet the table max if you have the bankroll for it!
Early surrender is nearly unheard of these days. If word of this game gets out to the AP community, it will probably be burned to the ground in a couple of weeks. Sounds like WongBo is getting his chunk while the getting is good (nice work).
I'd hit that one with 1-4 HiLo table minimum. Nice game.
Mohegan Sun in the NE USA: $10-$15-$25 6D 3:2 S17 DA2 DAS RS4 NoRSA LS Pen 66-75%(call it 70%) also a nice game (0.33%)
Binions in the 80's: $10 4D 3:2 S17 DA2 DAS RS4 RSA LS Pen 75% (0.21%) Pitch games a solid 0.5% HA.
Quote: 1BBYou shouldn't be betting the same amount at TC +1 and at TC +5 or higher which is what you are doing.
The only reason not to flat bet the max as long as the game is positive (+2 or higher) is really just the bankroll limitation. If you got a 200K budget to blow, why not?
Quote: 98ClubsI figure 0.2% if you can DA2 (Double any first two cards {except Aces after a Split, and BJ})
I'd hit that one with 1-4 HiLo table minimum. Nice game.
Mohegan Sun in the NE USA: $10-$15-$25 6D 3:2 S17 DA2 DAS RS4 NoRSA LS Pen 66-75%(call it 70%) also a nice game (0.33%)
Binions in the 80's: $10 4D 3:2 S17 DA2 DAS RS4 RSA LS Pen 75% (0.21%) Pitch games a solid 0.5% HA.
Good luck trying to find 75% pen at Mohegan Sun. It's there but you really have to search for it as it's dealer dependent even though there's a notch on the side of the shoe. I found a dealer giving close to 80% the other day but wouldn't you know the relief dealer was right around 60%.
They have $5 minimums in the Winter Casino every morning. These are hand shuffled and not raised until the shift change at one o'clock. Players are grandfathered at $5 as long as they stay at the table.
Quote: FleaStiffwhen that woman in the low cut dress sits next to you and bets only the minimum and murmers you might as well come upstairs with me honey, they've already made you as a counter
I'm waiting for that shit to happen! LOL
Quote: gamblerNote: I have always been a casual blackjack player, able to play basic strategy well, but never really taking up card counting.
As I understand it, when the "count" is in favor of the player, one should raise their bet as dramatically as the house would allow them to, without attracting too much attention. When the count is against the player and in favor of the dealer, one should make your bet as small as possible, without attracting too much attention from the casino pit staff or eye-in-the-sky.
What I wanted to know would be how much difference it would make if you are only increasing or decreasing your bet by one unit, based upon the count.
For example:
When count is in favor of the dealer, bet $100. When the count is in favor of the player, bet $200.
The reason I ask is that I would believe that a 1 unit increase or decrease would probably not attract very much heat or attention. Especially at blackjack tables with favorable rules, the house edge isn't that high when a player uses basic strategy (perhaps 0.5% or less). Would using a 1-to-2 unit system be enough to reduce this house edge to something close to 0%? Would it have to be a 1-to-3 unit system?
Your thoughts and suggestions are welcome.
I think this is a great question. Most folks here are not making their living at BJ, IMO.
Ultimately, I believe that it IS POSSIBLE to enjoy moderate yet consistent success at the game playing just this way. I have gotten back into the game over the past few months after time away for at least a year. Just today, played at a $10 table, caught an early run of small cards that shifted the table in my favor, and made an 80% profit on my buy-in on the first shoe - then left. Yep, of course luck was a factor. I don't count per se, but I watch the cards as they come out and knew to increase my bets after seeing the first hands dealt. Bet spread was 3-1, and yes my doubles and splits worked out, mostly. Almost always increased my bets by 1x when called for, just as OP is describing.
I play this way, most times, and it seems to be fairly successful.
Let's say the house has a 0.5% edge in a game of blackjack. If you do a 1-2 spread when the count is in your favor, approximately what does that reduce the edge to? How about a 1-3 spread? A 1-4 spread? At what point does it become a break even game or a positive expectation game for the player?
