rebelaccountant
Joined: Jan 12, 2012
• Posts: 34
February 13th, 2012 at 9:15:16 PM permalink
Wizard, anyone more math inclined than me,

Since getting on this board and reading a few other gambling websites, I've been seeing a lot about the card card effect and how it could increase the house edge a bit. Although I'd like to think I'm not completely clueless in math and I see how it could limit the number of hands played in a high positive count deck/shoe, I can't seem to wrap my mind around what effect it would have on a non-card counter. Which leads me to my next question.....

All things the same, would a non counter be better off playing a 6 deck CSM instead of a cut card used 6 deck shoe. I know it sounds a little counter intuitive, so hopefully it's not a totally stupid question.
Hotty Toddy!!!
Switch
Joined: Apr 29, 2010
• Posts: 934
February 13th, 2012 at 9:51:47 PM permalink
I find that an easy way to look at it is to suppose that you were playing a single deck game but the cut card was placed at 20% penetration i.e. 10 cards from the front. So, say your first hand is 10, J and the dealer has a Q and draws a 9 so you win. The next had you have A, 8 and the dealer has K, K so you lose. So far 8 cards have been dealt so you will be playing a 3rd hand - however, you are at a big disadvantage on this 3rd hand as a lot of big cards have been dealt out.

Looking at a different scenario, you are now dealt 4, 6 for your 1st hand and the dealer has a 3. You double and get a 5 and the dealer turns over 5, 2, 6, 7 to bust with 23. You win. Next hand you get 8, 9 and the dealer has 6, 5, 9 so you lose. However, the 3rd hand will be at a player advantage as there are lots of big cards left BUT 13 cards have been dealt with these 2 hands so the cut card will have come out and a new shuffle is performed.

In other words, in the above scenario, you tend to play a 3rd hand when it's bad for you.

For multi-deck and different penetration levels, it's a similar albeit watered down effect.
1BB
Joined: Oct 10, 2011
• Posts: 5339
February 14th, 2012 at 4:52:15 AM permalink
Quote: rebelaccountant

Wizard, anyone more math inclined than me,

Since getting on this board and reading a few other gambling websites, I've been seeing a lot about the card card effect and how it could increase the house edge a bit. Although I'd like to think I'm not completely clueless in math and I see how it could limit the number of hands played in a high positive count deck/shoe, I can't seem to wrap my mind around what effect it would have on a non-card counter. Which leads me to my next question.....

All things the same, would a non counter be better off playing a 6 deck CSM instead of a cut card used 6 deck shoe. I know it sounds a little counter intuitive, so hopefully it's not a totally stupid question.

This is a very good question. Playing the CSM will have almost the same effect as playing the first hand of a shoe every time so there will be no noticeable positive or negative counts. Because of that, a 6 deck shoe with a .28% house edge will become about a .26% house edge with the CSM. If you are dealt 80 hands per hour with the hand shuffled shoe, the CSM will yield about 100 hands per hour under the same conditions.

Flat betting \$10 per hand and disregarding doubles and splits, you will put \$800 on the table in the hand shuffled game and \$1000 per hour with the CSM. The expected hourly loss is \$2.24 and \$2.60 respectively. As you can see, if you're not counting it really doesn't matter which game you choose to play.

Most people play blackjack for fun and the CSMs will attract inexperienced players because of their usually lower minimum bets. With that in mind always be considerate of your fellow players and don't criticize their decisions.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
rebelaccountant
Joined: Jan 12, 2012
• Posts: 34
February 14th, 2012 at 9:58:38 AM permalink
Ok thanks! That really makes it a lot more clear. I guess since I'll probably just be flat betting (grad school bankroll ha) and playing for comps, I'd be better off just playing at a pitch/shoe game since it would slow the game down considerably. Throw in a few composition dependent changes on a decent double deck game and with a pretty good players club, I'll be bumping up pretty close to no "house edge" or at least some cheap entertainment.

Hopefully playing like this will let me keep a little more bankroll for a Vegas graduation present for myself.
Hotty Toddy!!!
weaselman
Joined: Jul 11, 2010
• Posts: 2349
February 14th, 2012 at 11:20:29 AM permalink
Quote: rebelaccountant

I'd be better off just playing at a pitch/shoe game since it would slow the game down considerably.

Or you can just sit out one hand out of every ten or so - would get the same effect :)
I mean, I could never understand why do people consider slow game an advantage - isn't the whole point of being there to play? Except, of course, you are in it for free drinks - that I could understand ... but in that case, you are better off feeding 2 cents/hr into a slot machine ...
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
rebelaccountant
Joined: Jan 12, 2012