New counting method?

I was just thinking about counting in single deck games and that the casino personnel gets suspicious when you're raising your bet. Then the thought came up whether it is possible to apply a counting strategy by lowering you bet. Lets say you start with 4 units. You play the first round and the count is -4. Then you just lower your bet to one unit in the second round. Let's say that the reverse was true, a count of +4, you just leave your bet untouched... That way you bet a lot when the deck is hot, and low when it's not ;-) Any thoughts?

They get suspicious when you vary your bet, not specifically raise it at high count., so this method will not help in that respect. As for the actual (dis)advantage in the game, it is better than flat betting, but much worse than the usual strategy (which also includes lowering your bet or, even better, sitting out when the count goes negative).

Quote: weaselman

They get suspicious when you vary your bet...

True. It doesn't matter where you start at. We look for fluctuations period; positive or negative has no bearing. If you did it that one time (your first hand = -4 example) I wouldn't waste my time on you. Do it repeatedly and I'd have you exposed within 10 hands.

It's a good idea. Well, good in that your thinking of ways to work it. But in reality, "raising" or "lowering" means nothing, it's "fluctuations" we look for. It's the absolute #1 thing that says something may be up, and even my 2 yr old son could tell if the wagers are changing (Point being, every single casino personnel is going to notice).

Back to the drawing board ;)

I'll do you one better... if the dealer is shuffling every time you raise, raise whenever the count goes negative. Then the dealer will shuffle away the negative deck and you'll start fresh. You'll never be playing with worse than an even count, so you don't even have to worry about what to bet when the count is negative.

That's actually a good idea!

In some (most/all?) casinos, you could even change the bet back to the original amount while they're re-shuffling. Not only will this help you maintain your average bet size, it may actually play into the dealer's thinking that they are "stopping" your system.