Card Counting Blackjack Tie
July 10th, 2011 at 1:48:09 AM
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I frequently go to a small cardroom in Kirkland, WA and play Blackjack. Each of their tables has various options for side bets. One such side bet is a game called "Blackjack Tie", in which the player places a side bet that s/he will push with the dealer with a particular total. This particular cardroom's payout table is as follows:
Player & Dealer 17: 45 to 1
Player & Dealer 18: 45 to 1
Player & Dealer 19: 45 to 1
Any "left side" push listed above: 15 to 1
Player & Dealer 20: 25 to 1
Player & Dealer 21: 75 to 1
Player & Dealer Blackjack: 350 to 1
Any "right side" push listed above: 20 to 1
Obviously these odds are disastrous without card counting. I was playing at this table tonight, and with a true count of +5 I put $50 in for the main bet and $5 for the side bet (right side) as a high true count would improve the odds for both me and for the dealer to have a 20 or blackjack. I did this maybe 3 or 4 times, and (anecdotally) did get the 20 to 1 payout once. My question is, how high would the true count have to be to actually defeat the house edge on this side bet? I'd imagine it's more than +5, but I'm curious just how high it must be.
6-deck, 75% pen, H17, LS, DAS, double on any two, resplit to 4, no RA, no hitting split aces.
Also, if you take even money because the count is high, you forfeit the side bet, and obviously if you surrender, you can't ever achieve a push.
Player & Dealer 17: 45 to 1
Player & Dealer 18: 45 to 1
Player & Dealer 19: 45 to 1
Any "left side" push listed above: 15 to 1
Player & Dealer 20: 25 to 1
Player & Dealer 21: 75 to 1
Player & Dealer Blackjack: 350 to 1
Any "right side" push listed above: 20 to 1
Obviously these odds are disastrous without card counting. I was playing at this table tonight, and with a true count of +5 I put $50 in for the main bet and $5 for the side bet (right side) as a high true count would improve the odds for both me and for the dealer to have a 20 or blackjack. I did this maybe 3 or 4 times, and (anecdotally) did get the 20 to 1 payout once. My question is, how high would the true count have to be to actually defeat the house edge on this side bet? I'd imagine it's more than +5, but I'm curious just how high it must be.
6-deck, 75% pen, H17, LS, DAS, double on any two, resplit to 4, no RA, no hitting split aces.
Also, if you take even money because the count is high, you forfeit the side bet, and obviously if you surrender, you can't ever achieve a push.
July 12th, 2011 at 8:00:53 AM
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I should add that the count method is standard Hi-Lo.
May 8th, 2019 at 3:43:06 AM
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I was just thinking about this. Did you find an answer?
May 8th, 2019 at 5:34:00 AM
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I should have thought that with the side bet (say tie 20) you would hit 12s etc more often thus affecting the value of the base BJ bet. Also you might stand on soft 17 vs 7 (or indeed other upcards as has been discussed in another thread).
May 8th, 2019 at 6:30:45 AM
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Quote: kmcd...if you take even money because the count is high, you forfeit the side bet...
This is really funny! Before this side bet, the outcomes from taking even money were exactly the same as from taking full insurance. Now there's a difference.
Here's the Wizard's page on a similar blackjack tie bet: https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/8/#tiebet.
Also, when betting $100 on your main bet, for example, how much can you bet on the tie bet?
May 8th, 2019 at 11:48:57 AM
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Something to me sounds very wrong... the side bets are SEPARATE WAGERS from the blackjack game, even insurance is technically a separate wager. Taking even money on your blackjack hand should have absolutely zero correlation to your side bet. I wonder if this is legal...
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
May 8th, 2019 at 1:34:41 PM
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Quote: ChesterDogThis is really funny! Before this side bet, the outcomes from taking even money were exactly the same as from taking full insurance. Now there's a difference.
Quote: RomesSomething to me sounds very wrong... the side bets are SEPARATE WAGERS from the blackjack game, even insurance is technically a separate wager. Taking even money on your blackjack hand should have absolutely zero correlation to your side bet. I wonder if this is legal...
When dealt a blackjack against an ace take insurance for less. An easy way to find out which casino employees understand rules and arithmetic.
