Alternative Basic Strategy?

When I play in Holland Casino, they don't use the hole-card rule. The dealers just gets 1 card. In the afternoon most tables are empty and I play face to face, alone against the dealer.
Playing basic strategy sometimes gives me a bad feeling when the dealer is showing a '10' and I have a stiff 14,15 or 16.

It's because of this: let's say I don't bust and 'hit' a 2 on my 15.
I now have 17 against a dealers 10, which still is terrible. If I did not hit, I had a good chance because the dealer gets a stiff 12.

It's the same when I hit a 3 on my 15. 18 against a 10 is not really hopefull. A dealer with a stiff 13 is MUCH more hopefull!

And the same when I hit a 4 on my 15. 19 against a 10 is not bad, but I guess a stiff 14 for the dealer is better.

Only hitting a 5 or 6 is really good.

The same for hitting a 16 against a dealers 10. I prefer the dealer has a stiff 12,13 or 14 when the next card is 2, 3 or 4.
And hitting a 6 is really, really terrible.

Does someone has any stats or math about this? I play perfect basic strategy but in the examples above it's very hard for me to understand hitting is better then stand against a dealers '10'.

Thank you for your answers!

The easiest way to think about it is that basic strategy has analyzed every situation given the number of decks in play and what your cards are and the dealers card is. When you say '18 is not really hopeful' that has no real meaning. Of course against a dealer 10 your 18 will lose more often than it will win. But there is nothing you can do at that time. The 18 was 'more hopeful' than your 15 was. Basic strategy just says you will lose less over time by hitting 15 against a 10 compared to standing, not that you will win more than you will lose from that starting point. (Assuming surrender not permitted). We ALL 'prefer' the dealer has a stiff 12, 13, or 14. But unfortunately they do not respond to my preferences.

I think the information you are looking for is in the Wizard's Blackjack appendix 1. Consider the case where you have a 15 against a dealer's 10. Standing on this condition will result in an average loss of .5404 betting units per hand. Hitting results in an average loss of 0.5004 betting units per hand. Playing $10 per hand, on average you will net an extra 40 cents every time you hit this condition instead of standing. You are correct to get a bad feeling, clearly this is a bad condition for the player. Either way you will lose about 75% of the time. But over the long haul, you will win once more over every 25 such hands by hitting instead of standing.

The dealer has an advantage. As the game goes on you keep getting clobbered. However, Blackjack pays 3:2

That is when you get it back and have a chance to come out ahead.

Yeah those hands suck, that's why basic strategy says to surrender if possible ;). Otherwise hitting wins more often than standing.

To me the best way of thinking about those types of hands are you are expected to lose. You simply got very bad cards and need some luck for you to win. Your choices are to hit and try and get a much better hand, or to stay and hope the dealer just busts. Either situation has bad odds. Math simply says which choice makes you lose less in the long run.

What the OP is trying to say is that the odds seem different when there is no hole card as opposed to there being a hole card. For example if you have 15 vs. 10 and the next card is Seven, you will always lose no matter whether you hit or stand, whereas with hole card there would have been a way to win the hand.

Quote: Ramond

When I play in Holland Casino, they don't use the hole-card rule. The dealers just gets 1 card. In the afternoon most tables are empty and I play face to face, alone against the dealer.
Playing basic strategy sometimes gives me a bad feeling when the dealer is showing a '10' and I have a stiff 14,15 or 16.

Does someone has any stats or math about this? I play perfect basic strategy but in the examples above it's very hard for me to understand hitting is better then stand against a dealers '10'.

Thank you for your answers!

Maybe this is what you seek.

Blackjack: Basic Strategy Chart for European Blackjack
At the WoO HERE
or even
Australian Blackjack
At the WoO HERE

Quote: Jufo81

What the OP is trying to say is that the odds seem different when there is no hole card as opposed to there being a hole card. For example if you have 15 vs. 10 and the next card is Seven, you will always lose no matter whether you hit or stand, whereas with hole card there would have been a way to win the hand.

Even re-reading the post, I don't get that at all. If so, that's just silliness.

Quote: Ramond

Does someone has any stats or math about this? I play perfect basic strategy but in the examples above it's very hard for me to understand hitting is better then stand against a dealers '10'.

You just need to use ENHC strategy. It's considerably different in marginal cases.

The lack of surrender option makes ENHC a lot worse than it otherwise would. But, if you can't surrender, you have to play the cards you've been dealt.

Quote: Jufo81

What the OP is trying to say is that the odds seem different when there is no hole card as opposed to there being a hole card. For example if you have 15 vs. 10 and the next card is Seven, you will always lose no matter whether you hit or stand, whereas with hole card there would have been a way to win the hand.

This is exactly what I mean. In this condition (15 for the player against a dealers 10) a 10, 9, 8 or 7 gives the same result: loss. Hitting or standing doesn't matter.
Thats what I'm trying to discuss. It seems to be better that you give the 2, 3 or 4 to the dealer, giving the dealer a worse position. If you stand, and the next card is a 2,3,4,5 or 6... you always have over 50% chance te win. If you hit, you only have over 50% chance to win when the next card is a 5 or 6.

Quote: Jufo81

What the OP is trying to say is that the odds seem different when there is no hole card as opposed to there being a hole card. For example if you have 15 vs. 10 and the next card is Seven, you will always lose no matter whether you hit or stand, whereas with hole card there would have been a way to win the hand.

I think I see what you're getting at... but I'm not sure if it actually changes the odds or not - maybe someone can run the numbers.

I think the Wizard has said this before: When the dealer takes his/her second card does not affect the hit/stand odds over the long term. (With ENHC it does affect the odds when doubling or splitting because you lose your additional bet(s) if the dealer draws a blackjack, which you wouldn't place when the dealer checks for blackjack in a hole card game and has one.)

Quote: Ramond

Does someone has any stats or math about this? I play perfect basic strategy but in the examples above it's very hard for me to understand hitting is better then stand against a dealers '10'.

Thank you for your answers!

One thing I tell people about Basic Strategy, is that most of the hands with "positive expectation" (i.e. more likely to win than lose) the best move is obvious. It is the hands with "negative expectation" (i.e. you are likely to lose no matter what you do) that require basic strategy. They tell you what is best of several bad options.

So if you have a pair of 8's against a dealer 7, it should be obvious that the best move is to split. But if you have a pair of 8's against a dealer 10 it is not at all obvious. What the mathematics behind basic strategy does is tabulate all the possible outcomes and their associated probability. If more of them come out with the player winning if he elects to hit, then they say to "hit". If all outcomes have an expected return of less than 50%, then the strategy says to "surrender".

So when you are faced with a difficult choice, follow basic strategy because that will give you your highest expected return. But you will still probably lose. You'll just lose less often.

Sometimes the choices are so close, that the playing of certain cards will change the decision. If you are not permitted to surrender, and a lot of low cards have been played, it is sometimes better to stand on a player 16 against a dealer 10.

what pacoartin says above should be required reading for everyone to be allowed to play in the casino's...the average joe just doesn't get it (as well as a lot of so called experts like john patrick). You are in a LOSING POSITION. By playing the b.s. you will lose less in the long run than by not playing it. read and read again until you understand this, although it won't matter you will probably still stand on your 8,8 against a dealer ten.

Quote: appistappis

what pacoartin says above should be required reading for everyone to be allowed to play in the casino's...the average joe just doesn't get it (as well as a lot of so called experts like john patrick). You are in a LOSING POSITION. By playing the b.s. you will lose less in the long run than by not playing it. read and read again until you understand this, although it won't matter you will probably still stand on your 8,8 against a dealer ten.

I play perfect basic strategy, always! Hitting 15 and 16 against a 10 just give me a bad feeling, thats all. I still hit, I just wanted to hear the opinion of other BJ players. I also always hit 8-8 against a 10 (splitting is not the BS option because there is no hole card in Holland or Belgium).

Surrender against a '10' in Europe is only permitted in Belgium (it was never in Holland, and it will never be). Hitting 13 against a 10 gives me a more worse feeling then Surrender for example, but when I play in Belgium I will!! hit the 13 against a dealers 10.

Thank you for al your answer!
I just want to know 1 more thing. In Holland 7-7-7 pays 2:1 (when dealer has BJ it is a push). So, which is the best option when you have 7-7 against a dealers 2,3 or 7. Split or hit?

Quote: appistappis

what pacoartin says above should be required reading for everyone to be allowed to play in the casino's...the average joe just doesn't get it (as well as a lot of so called experts like john patrick). You are in a LOSING POSITION. By playing the b.s. you will lose less in the long run than by not playing it. read and read again until you understand this, although it won't matter you will probably still stand on your 8,8 against a dealer ten.

I play perfect basic strategy, always! Hitting 15 and 16 against a 10 just give me a bad feeling, thats all. I still hit, I just wanted to hear the opinion of other BJ players. I also always hit 8-8 against a 10 (splitting is not the BS option because there is no hole card in Holland or Belgium).

Surrender against a '10' in Europe is only permitted in Belgium (it was never in Holland, and it will never be). Hitting 13 against a 10 gives me a more worse feeling then Surrender for example, but when I play in Belgium I will!! hit the 13 against a dealers 10.

Thank you for al your answer!
I just want to know 1 more thing. In Holland 7-7-7 pays 2:1 (when dealer has BJ it is a push). So, which is the best option when you have 7-7 against a dealers 2,3 or 7. Split or hit?

Quote: Ramond

I play perfect basic strategy, always! Hitting 15 and 16 against a 10 just give me a bad feeling, thats all.

As has been said before, you're playing the perfect strategy against a game with a negative expectation. When you are dealt a BJ against a dealer stiff hand you get paid 3:2 - that doesn't happen too often but it does happen and you receive the benefit of being dealt a really good hand. When you are dealt the hand(s) you've described (which happens a lot more often than being dealt a BJ) you just have to suck it up and realize you're probably going to lose, whether or not you hit and whether or not the dealer has already dealt himself his second card.

I'm a poker player and I keep my stats for every session, every day, every week, every month and every year. At the end of the year I can look back, calculate the hours I've put in and determine my hourly rate for the year. The only way to look at poker (or BJ if you're a serious player) is over the long-term because if I focused on the times that my AA was beaten by my opponenent's 2-outer on the river I'd go absolutely nuts and give up poker forever. By not looking at the individual hands (or sessions or weeks) I know that although I may lose from time to time, my yearly investment of time (about 1,400 hours) gives me an average return per hour that I can live with.

I play solid poker - you play perfect basic strategy. Sometimes you get in a hand where no matter what you do you're going to lose. Sometimes I am in a hand where I'm drawing dead and don't know it and I cough up my buy-in. It's all part of the game.

By the way, that bad feeling you get... ignore it or stop playing.

Quote: Ramond

I just want to know 1 more thing. In Holland 7-7-7 pays 2:1 (when dealer has BJ it is a push). So, which is the best option when you have 7-7 against a dealers 2,3 or 7. Split or hit?

That's an interesting question. I think I found the answer in the Wizard's Blackjack Appendix 11. If I understand him correctly, a 2:1 payout for 7-7-7 is insufficient to justify any deviations to basic strategy.

Just play basic strategy! No matter what people or dealers are saying. ONLY play basic strategy.....

I know what you mean with standing on 16 if you are the last player. I performed an analysis on this issue. It is better to buy the 2, 3, 4 or 5 yourself, than giving it to the dealer in the long-run. It is very counterintuitive, but it is a fact. You are busting a lot of time, but you will also get more stand-offs than with passing. For example when you buy a 2, and the dealer gets a 8. You have stand-off, otherwhise you would have lost with your 16 against the 20 of the dealer.

The stupid players in Holland Casino, who pass on 15 against a strong dealer-card, do not double down enough, do not split when they should do, do pass with A/7 against a 9 or 10 are simply losing much more than you do. Just laugh at them, you are the better player. They are dumb, you are smart. On the other hand.... You cannot beat the casino, whatever you do....... But it is a lot of fun, I agree. On a € 10 table playing basic strategy and 60 bets per hour, you are losing € 3 per hour. See it as a service fee, just like when you visit a cinema.

About the 7-7-7 bonus. Do not change the basic strategy. Split and pass when you should do. Professor van der Genugten has written a paper about Black Jack in Holland Casino. You can find the basic strategy and card-counting systems which cannot be used anymore due to the continious shufflers which are used in HC.

See this link for the paper: (In English, very interesting paper also for non-Dutch people).

7-7-7 bonus will be paid immediately with 1:1 and counts as 21 in the rest of the game. Against a dealer's BJ you will get the bonus but will lose the hand. If the dealer gets a 21, you will have a push. So the 2:1 you are talking about is effectively only applicable with a dealer's 17, 18, 19, 20 or bust.

Hello Tino83, thank you.
Whats the effect (of the 777 bonus) on the house edge?