Card Counting, 8 deck & cutting card

Hello BJ players,
I wonder what's the effect of card counting (let's the say the best way of counting which is Wonging in my opinion) when the casino uses 8 decks and a cutting card on 50-60% of the deck.

Let's say the other rules are normal. Dealer stands on S17, BJ pays 3:2, so a normal house edge around 0,6 or 0,7%.

I think it is almost impossible to gain an advantage because of the 8 decks. But when it mighte be possible, it can be done on some online casino's where you can just sit without playing. Just back counting and wait till the deck is more hot (with aces and 10's).

What are other peoples experiences?

Quote: Ramond

Hello BJ players,
I wonder what's the effect of card counting (let's the say the best way of counting which is Wonging in my opinion) when the casino uses 8 decks and a cutting card on 50-60% of the deck.

Let's say the other rules are normal. Dealer stands on S17, BJ pays 3:2, so a normal house edge around 0,6 or 0,7%.

I think it is almost impossible to gain an advantage because of the 8 decks. But when it mighte be possible, it can be done on some online casino's where you can just sit without playing. Just back counting and wait till the deck is more hot (with aces and 10's).

What are other peoples experiences?

Under the conditions you describe, I would say that the game is not worth counting and should be avoided. There are some 8 deck games that can be beaten and some that can be a tad better than a comparable 6 deck game. The important thing is good penetration and you just don't have it here. With the house edge you give, there's obviously no surrender which makes matters worse.

If you absolutely must play this game, a proper bankroll is crucial as well as aggressive Wonging and a betting spread of at least 1-20 units. Wong in at TC +2 and Wong out at 0.

You'll have to be very patient, as a very large amount of your time will be spent casing tables. I hope this isn't the only game you have access to because it's not great.

Thank you for your asnwer.
I don't play the much online (playing in a real casino gives me much more fun) because blackjack in an online/live casino is terrible slow.
But when I do, I try to count but I wanted to know what the effect was because of the 8-deck and early cutting card.

And even when I count, sometimes I looks like the cards are 'clumped' together. What I mean is when the dealer draws small cards over and over again she keeps drawing small cards.

And for example, a dealer started with a new shoe. And out of the first 60 cards where 15 aces or some, all clumped together (maybe the shuffle is terrible).

It's on Unibet. But thanks and good to know you can't really make a long-term profit out there.

The penetration is pretty horrible and the game should be avoided based off of that for 8 decks. If you indeed have "standard rules" (DAS, DA2, S17, 3-2 BJ) I believe that game is about 0.55%.

You can absolutely gain an advantage in this game (assuming you find a dealer with better penetration), regardless of the 8 decks. The lower number of decks yes the slightly better odds you get, but the math works the same. Each true count will increase you by ~.5%. Thus, in the game you're describing you can have an advantage at TC +2 and above. With wonging I don't see why this game wouldn't be beatable (if you can find a table with much better penetration). Again, this is for much better penetration (75%+). If you absolutely can't find anything above 50-60% PEN, I wouldn't play.

Quote: Romes

The penetration is pretty horrible and the game should be avoided based off of that for 8 decks. If you indeed have "standard rules" (DAS, DA2, S17, 3-2 BJ) I believe that game is about 0.55%.

You can absolutely gain an advantage in this game (assuming you find a dealer with better penetration), regardless of the 8 decks. The lower number of decks yes the slightly better odds you get, but the math works the same. Each true count will increase you by ~.5%. Thus, in the game you're describing you can have an advantage at TC +2 and above. With wonging I don't see why this game wouldn't be beatable (if you can find a table with much better penetration). Again, this is for much better penetration (75%+). If you absolutely can't find anything above 50-60% PEN, I wouldn't play.

The problem with the 8 decks is not so much that the HE off the top is higher (that is minor) but that the TC is less volatile, so profitable situations come up less frequently.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

The problem with the 8 decks is not so much that the HE off the top is higher (that is minor) but that the TC is less volatile, so profitable situations come up less frequently.

Correct me if I'm wrong, and I do understand why playing with less decks is more advantageous, but for any number of decks isn't the following true?

True Count .. Advantage (%) .. Frequency Per 100 Hands
.. .. -1 .. .. .... -1.0% .. .. .. .. .. .. 13
.. .. 0 .. .. .... -0.5% .. .. .. .. .. .. 34
.. .. 1 .. .. .... 0.0% .. .. .. .. .. .. 13
.. .. 2 .. .. .. .. 0.5% .. .. .. .. .. .. 8.5
.. .. 3 .... .... .. 1.0% .. .. .. .. .. .. 4.5
.. .. 4 .. .... .. 1.5% .. .. .. .. .. .. 3.5
.. .. 5 .... .... 2.0% .. .. .. .. .. .. 2
.. .. 6 .... .... 2.5% .. .. .. .. .. .. 2
.. .. 7 .. .. .... 3.0% .. .. .. .. .. .. 1
.. .. 8 .. .. .. .. 3.5% .. .. .. .. .. .. 0.5

Quote: Romes

Correct me if I'm wrong, and I do understand why playing with less decks is more advantageous, but for any number of decks isn't the following true?

True Count Advantage (%) Frequency Per 100 Hands
-1 -1.0% 13
0 -0.5% 34
1 0.0% 13
2 0.5% 8.5
3 1.0% 4.5
4 1.5% 3.5
5 2.0% 2
6 2.5% 2
7 3.0% 1
8 3.5% 0.5

Where did you get those numbers from? That can't possibly be right.

First, the frequency depends on penetration. The deeper you deal, the more frequently the higher counts will come out.

Second, it has to depend on the number of decks. Think about it: If you are playing double deck, the true count could easily jump to +2 after the first hand. That's more or less impossible at an 8 deck game. The TC will jump around a lot quicker with fewer decks because the denominator is smaller (that's the same reason that you need deeper penetration to get the higher counts out; the denominator drops as you deal deeper).

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Where did you get those numbers from? That can't possibly be right.

First, the frequency depends on penetration. The deeper you deal, the more frequently the higher counts will come out.

Second, it has to depend on the number of decks. Think about it: If you are playing double deck, the true count could easily jump to +2 after the first hand. That's more or less impossible at an 8 deck game. The TC will jump around a lot quicker with fewer decks because the denominator is smaller (that's the same reason that you need deeper penetration to get the higher counts out; the denominator drops as you deal deeper).

Again, I understand why this makes sense with fewer decks. But how many times in a DD game have you had a TC +3 for 4-5 deals? That's quite possible in a 6 or 8 deck game where as it's not as likely in a DD game. So overall they should average out and you should have an equal number of advantageous bets, with yes, lower number of decks being more short term 'volatile' to the TC.

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/6DeckText.htm (about 40% of the way down the page)

by Arnold Snyder

deleted

Quote: Romes

The penetration is pretty horrible and the game should be avoided based off of that for 8 decks. If you indeed have "standard rules" (DAS, DA2, S17, 3-2 BJ) I believe that game is about 0.55%.

You can absolutely gain an advantage in this game (assuming you find a dealer with better penetration), regardless of the 8 decks. The lower number of decks yes the slightly better odds you get, but the math works the same. Each true count will increase you by ~.5%. Thus, in the game you're describing you can have an advantage at TC +2 and above. With wonging I don't see why this game wouldn't be beatable (if you can find a table with much better penetration). Again, this is for much better penetration (75%+). If you absolutely can't find anything above 50-60% PEN, I wouldn't play.

I don't think Raymond is going to see this 3 1/2 year post. His last visit was on Nov 7, 2011. I was the first to respond to him. Yup, I was benbakdoff in another life.

Quote: Romes

Again, I understand why this makes sense with fewer decks. But how many times in a DD game have you had a TC +3 for 4-5 deals? That's quite possible in a 6 or 8 deck game where as it's not as likely in a DD game.

No, it's more likely in a DD game.

Quote:

So overall they should average out and you should have an equal number of advantageous bets, with yes, lower number of decks being more short term 'volatile.'

When I say "volatile" I mean that the count jumps around more. This is a good thing (if the count never moved it would always be 0 and you would never have an edge; the more volatile it is, the more often the extreme counts come out).

Quote:

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/6DeckText.htm (about 40% of the way down the page)

by Arnold Snyder

This only applies to a 6-deck game. Scroll up a bit and read point #4:

Quote:

#4: The Number of Decks in Play

A frequency distribution for a six-deck game differs so widely from a frequency distribution for a four-deck game or an eight-deck game that it is necessary to draw up separate distributions based on the number of decks in play. Do not attempt to use the distributions in this guidebook to approximate your advantage in any game other than a 6-deck game. Separate guides are available from the publisher for one-deck, two-deck, four-deck, and eight-deck games.

Professional Blackjack Appendix C has frequencies for 1,2 and 6 decks. They are different. Notably, as AoC points out, 6 decks is less volatile than 1 or 2 decks.

True count frequency distribution is based on number of decks and penetration.

Quote: RS

True count frequency distribution is based on number of decks and penetration.

True for a play all, single game approach. When you add in wonging, whether wonging in, or out or both, or add in simultaneously tracking a second or third table and immediately jumping from one bad or mediocre count to a better count, which is sort of a specialized form of wonging, you change the true count frequencies (that you play) a great deal in your favor. :)

I also want to talk about 8 deck card counting. An 8 deck game is really so much worse for a card counter, than like it's 6 deck counterpart of similar penetration. I was very slow to learn this when I started my career. On the surface it seems not that much difference between a 6 deck game and an 8 deck game of similar penetration and rules. The initial house advantage grows just a couple one-hundreds of a percent, so it seems like the games are similar. But it is these true count frequencies that we are discussing that are vastly different for the two games, with higher true counts of +5 or more occurring, as much as 50%-100% more often in 6 deck games than similar 8 deck games. (the range is dependent on exact rules and most important penetration). This is a really important concept to understand and as I said, for some reason I was slow to grasp it.