Joined: Nov 14, 2009
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December 1st, 2009 at 3:19:12 PM permalink
I have a very practical question regarding churning a 2-1 payout for a blackjack coupon.

What are the chances of busting out before getting the blackjack with a 10-unit bankroll? If it can also be determined, what are the chances of being ahead (in the positive) at the time the first blackjack is received?

I have a feeling the first question may be easier to answer than the second.

I've run a bunch of simulations on this on the Wiz's blackjack simulator and have gotten encouraging results generally, but was wondering if there's a mathematical formula one can use.

"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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December 1st, 2009 at 9:12:20 PM permalink
Risk of ruin calculations are mathematically difficult. Usually I just do a random simulation. Your question in particular cries out for one. However, I don't have the time to write a custom simulation for every hypothetical question that comes along. My best guess is the probability of losing 10 units before you get a blackjack is about 10%.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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