February 4th, 2011 at 8:57:40 PM
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It seems that the basic strategy is not the optimal strategy against the blackjack streak - eg: player should never double on 9 or 10 against dealer up card 2,3,7,8,9. etc. I wonder what is the proper strategy against blackjack streak, esp on split hands and what the house edge would be if you play optimally?
The rules at a local casino in concerning split hand is base on number of hands won - not units won; (eg: player split once, double hand 1 and lost; hand 2 beat the dealer; although there's a net loss, it's only consider a push for the purpose of streak bets as it's base on hands won / loss, not units)
Many interesting scenario would come up on split hands; to keep things manageable, let's assume infinite decks and S17. Example on a counter-intuitive scenario:
Dealer up card 5, player split 9's and drew a 10 to first hand - resulting in 19 and stand; hand 2 draw a 3 for hard 12.
Conventional wisdom suggests stand on the 12;
But if the player draw 1 card only to hand 2;
The rules at a local casino in concerning split hand is base on number of hands won - not units won; (eg: player split once, double hand 1 and lost; hand 2 beat the dealer; although there's a net loss, it's only consider a push for the purpose of streak bets as it's base on hands won / loss, not units)
Many interesting scenario would come up on split hands; to keep things manageable, let's assume infinite decks and S17. Example on a counter-intuitive scenario:
Dealer up card 5, player split 9's and drew a 10 to first hand - resulting in 19 and stand; hand 2 draw a 3 for hard 12.
Conventional wisdom suggests stand on the 12;
Dealer | Hand 1 | Hand 2 | Streak-Bet | Prob |
---|---|---|---|---|
17 | 19 | 12 | Push | 0.122251285 |
18 | 19 | 12 | Push | 0.122251285 |
19 | 19 | 12 | Lose | 0.117699624 |
20 | 19 | 12 | Lose | 0.113147963 |
21 | 19 | 12 | Lose | 0.108246173 |
Bust | 19 | 12 | Win | 0.41640367 |
Win | 0.41640367 |
---|---|
Lose | 0.33909376 |
Push | 0.244502571 |
W/(W+L) | 0.551164906 |
But if the player draw 1 card only to hand 2;
Dealer | Player H1 | Player H2 | Streak-Bet | Probability |
---|---|---|---|---|
17 | 19 | 13-16,Bust | Push | 0.07523156 |
17 | 19 | 17-21 | Win | 0.047019725 |
18 | 19 | 13-17,Bust | Push | 0.084635505 |
18 | 19 | 18-21 | Win | 0.03761578 |
19 | 19 | 13-18,Bust | Lose | 0.090538172 |
19 | 19 | 19 | Push | 0.009053817 |
19 | 19 | 20-21 | Win | 0.018107634 |
20 | 19 | 13-20,Bust | Lose | 0.104444273 |
20 | 19 | 21 | Push | 0.008703689 |
21 | 19 | 13-21,Bust | Lose | 0.108246173 |
Bust | 19 | 13-21 | Win | 0.288279464 |
Bust | 19 | Bust | Push | 0.128124206 |
Win | 0.391022603 |
---|---|
Lose | 0.305748778 |
Push | 0.303228619 |
W/(W+L) | 0.561192112 |