Question about Insurance

Hello all,

Asking this question as I tried to search for it but couldn't find anything, so decided to post it myself

I have a curiosity about the insurance bet in BlackJack; as we know, it's considered a bad bet, as it pays 2 to 1 to odds of about 2.25 to 1 - about a 7% House Edge

However, I was thinking that this bet is not everything that we get when buying insurance: if the insurance bet is lost, we have also bought information: we know that the card in the hole is not a 10.

Now, while I'm pretty sure this doesn't change the insurance bet to EV positive (far from it), I was thinking that there should be some advantage of taking this information in consideration... Perhaps adjusting the basic strategy? How much of an advantage would this be? My hunch is that it would be marginal, but also that there would be something there. Does anyone has any analysis done on the matter that could be shared?

Thanks!

Quote: MaXen17

Hello all,

Asking this question as I tried to search for it but couldn't find anything, so decided to post it myself

I have a curiosity about the insurance bet in BlackJack; as we know, it's considered a bad bet, as it pays 2 to 1 to odds of about 2.25 to 1 - about a 7% House Edge

However, I was thinking that this bet is not everything that we get when buying insurance: if the insurance bet is lost, we have also bought information: we know that the card in the hole is not a 10.

Now, while I'm pretty sure this doesn't change the insurance bet to EV positive (far from it), I was thinking that there should be some advantage of taking this information in consideration... Perhaps adjusting the basic strategy? How much of an advantage would this be? My hunch is that it would be marginal, but also that there would be something there. Does anyone has any analysis done on the matter that could be shared?

Thanks!
link to original post

Welcome to the forum.

On any "peek" table, whether you take the insurance bet or not, you know if the down-card is a ten in just a moment.

...And you're right

So the basic strategy for A is simply already taking this info into account, couldn't be played it there was a 10.

Thanks!

But insurance is a positive EV bet occasionally in single deck games, if playing two hands a time.

Quote: MaXen17

...And you're right

So the basic strategy for A is simply already taking this info into account, couldn't be played it there was a 10.

Thanks!
link to original post

I believe that is correct. Basic strategy is different for No Hole Card and No Peek tables.

The card counters say to take insurance if the true count is +3 or above, and it makes me want to count cards just for that reason; but me looking at everybody's cards will get me banned. Another player got a tip from surveillance that bet spreads of 1-20 in one shoe will get him banned, after he was already banned.