Odds of winning with 20
Best blackjack bonuses
February 26th, 2025 at 7:36:47 AM
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I was going through some old BJ literature and it mentions that you should never split tens. That's for another discussion, but the article said that you have a 92% chance of winning with a two-card twenty. I don't think that is correct. Possibly, you have a 92% chance of not losing, but winning 92% seems high. You lose to any dealer BJ or 21 and push all 20s.
The article refers to two card totals of twenty, but I'm not sure why a two-card 20 is superior to a four card twenty.
The article refers to two card totals of twenty, but I'm not sure why a two-card 20 is superior to a four card twenty.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
February 26th, 2025 at 8:13:09 AM
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In a 6-deck H17 game, if you don't take dealer blackjacks into account, you have a 92% chance of "not losing" with a 2-card 20, but about a 72.3% chance of "winning."
I am not taking dealer blackjacks into account as they are not relevant to the question, "Should you split 10s?".
I am not taking dealer blackjacks into account as they are not relevant to the question, "Should you split 10s?".
February 26th, 2025 at 8:26:08 AM
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For an infinite deck game, I just find that a player has about a 73.1% chance of winning a hand of 20, regardless of the number of cards.
February 26th, 2025 at 9:08:51 AM
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Tournaments.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
February 26th, 2025 at 11:04:29 AM
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There's a couple of female Canadian counters who love to split 10's when the count is high and they have higher bets out. That usually leads to a backoff a little later.
If you're playing a VBJ machine, split 10's all you want but only once.
If you're playing a VBJ machine, split 10's all you want but only once.
February 26th, 2025 at 11:53:38 AM
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(snip!!)
I am not aware of a table where the player can split a three or four card 20.
Quote: billryan
The article refers to two card totals of twenty, but I'm not sure why a two-card 20 is superior to a four card twenty.
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I am not aware of a table where the player can split a three or four card 20.
I remember a player split a pair of jacks, likely because of the count. The draws were also ten value. When asked if he wanted to resplit, he declined (the count had fallen just enough) with the comment "Who splits a 20?"
May the cards fall in your favor.
February 26th, 2025 at 12:40:39 PM
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I'm not aware of any BS that splits 10s.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
February 26th, 2025 at 1:02:53 PM
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Quote: billryanI'm not aware of any BS that splits 10s.
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But the point of the article was to justify why you never split 10s, so it stands to reason that the article would only consider a count of 20 that is splittable . . .
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
February 26th, 2025 at 1:20:39 PM
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Quote: unJonQuote: billryanI'm not aware of any BS that splits 10s.
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But the point of the article was to justify why you never split 10s, so it stands to reason that the article would only consider a count of 20 that is splittable . . .
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The paragraph simply said that when you have 20, you have a 92% chance of winning, so stand pat. The fact that the author stated the odds of winning was 92% tells me all I need to know about him. All my BJ and gambling books are packed away so I couldn't find the exact number, which I estimagted was around 75%, not 92%. He could have said you will only lose 8% of the hands, but instead he stated you will win 92%.
A quick Google search turned up a few different sources that claim you will win 92% of the time. We live in an age of misinformation.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
February 26th, 2025 at 2:07:20 PM
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Quote: billryanQuote: unJonQuote: billryanI'm not aware of any BS that splits 10s.
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But the point of the article was to justify why you never split 10s, so it stands to reason that the article would only consider a count of 20 that is splittable . . .
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The paragraph simply said that when you have 20, you have a 92% chance of winning, so stand pat. The fact that the author stated the odds of winning was 92% tells me all I need to know about him. All my BJ and gambling books are packed away so I couldn't find the exact number, which I estimagted was around 75%, not 92%. He could have said you will only lose 8% of the hands, but instead he stated you will win 92%.
A quick Google search turned up a few different sources that claim you will win 92% of the time. We live in an age of misinformation.
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True about misinformation. But just to clear the air it is your OP that introduced the article focusing on two card 20s.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
February 26th, 2025 at 2:08:06 PM
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On a VBJ machine you win your money back on a push.
February 28th, 2025 at 4:57:33 PM
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I suspect there are Blackjack variants where it's correct to split 10s. One might have been like double exposure where you could double down if you then got an Ace. The other might have been where there's a bonus (or sidebet) which pays for a winning with a specific total. Another factor is whether you can re-split with different ten-count cards (my local allowed splitting JJ but not QJ, and you couldn't double any 21.)
February 28th, 2025 at 5:39:38 PM
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Quote: charliepatrickI suspect there are Blackjack variants where it's correct to split 10s. One might have been like double exposure where you could double down if you then got an Ace. The other might have been where there's a bonus (or sidebet) which pays for a winning with a specific total. Another factor is whether you can re-split with different ten-count cards (my local allowed splitting JJ but not QJ, and you couldn't double any 21.)
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It pairs well with an ace sidecount. As does doubling 10 vs. 10, 10 vs. A, a number of high risk/profit doubles.
That's a nice plus of ace-neutral counts with ace sidecounts; the ace acts as either a high or a low card in different contexts of play strategy. So you can treat it like a high card for betting, like a low card for insurance and plays like 12 vs. 2, and again like a high card for certain doubles and splits. And like something else entirely for sidebets.
March 1st, 2025 at 5:14:09 AM
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Quote: charliepatrickI suspect there are Blackjack variants where it's correct to split 10s. One might have been like double exposure where you could double down if you then got an Ace. The other might have been where there's a bonus (or sidebet) which pays for a winning with a specific total. Another factor is whether you can re-split with different ten-count cards (my local allowed splitting JJ but not QJ, and you couldn't double any 21.)
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The most obvious case is Bingo Blackjack where you often split tens, sometimes even against a dealer ace or ten.
Way back when it happened, I calculated the EV of this hand at this point before the dealer's action. IIRC, I would not take an early buyout for $25K (if it was offered).
Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.
March 8th, 2025 at 11:38:23 AM
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You're right, the 92% win chance with a two-card 20 is way off. It’s more like 75-80% win rate, 'cause you push on dealer 20s, lose to blackjack, and win when the dealer busts. A two-card 20 is better than a four-card one 'cause you don't risk busting by hitting again.
