Mardis Gras Side Bet

I hear the Orleans has a new blackjack side bet called the Mardis Gras. It is seen on their double-deck game only. The following table shows the pay table and my analysis. I haven't had it confirmed. Anyone agree or disagree with my math?

Event	Pays	Combinations	Probability	Return
A/K diamonds	130	4	0.000747	0.097087
Suited aces	45	4	0.000747	0.033607
Unsuited aces	25	24	0.004481	0.112024
Suited blackjack	15	60	0.011202	0.168036
Unsuited blackjack	5	192	0.035848	0.179238
Straight flush	5	192	0.035848	0.179238
All other	-1	4880	0.911128	-0.911128
Total		5356	1.000000	-0.141897

Note: Edited 5:00 PM, 9/24/24

The question for the poll is would you make this side bet if playing anyway? Multiple votes allowed.

Quote: Wizard

I hear the Orleans has a new blackjack side bet called the Mardis Gras. It is seen on their double-deck game only. The following table shows the pay table and my analysis. I haven't had it confirmed. Anyone agree or disagree with my math?

Event	Pays	Combinations	Probability	Return
A/K diamonds	130	4	0.000747	0.097087
Suited aces	45	4	0.000747	0.033607
Unsuited aces	25	24	0.004481	0.112024
Suited blackjack	15	60	0.011202	0.168036
Unsuited blackjack	5	192	0.035848	0.179238
Straight flush	5	208	0.038835	0.194175
All other	-1	4864	0.908140	-0.908140
Total		5356	1.000000	-0.123973

The question for the poll is would you make this side bet if playing anyway? Multiple votes allowed.
link to original post

Would counting aces make this game beatable if they dealt 1.5 decks?

Quote: DRich

Would counting aces make this game beatable if they dealt 1.5 decks?
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I haven't studied it, but my educated guess it would be very countable with 75% penetration.

Quote: DRich

Would counting aces make this game beatable if they dealt 1.5 decks?
link to original post

Challenge accepted!

Here's what I get in simulation ("aces" refers to how many are still in the deck; the number is the expected value on a bet of 1)

75% Penetration:
0 Aces: -0.7687
1 Ace: -0.5954
2 Aces: -0.3485
3 Aces: -0.0263
4 Aces: 0.3684
5 Aces: 0.8357
6 Aces: 1.3811
7 Aces: 1.9393
8 Aces: 2.841

50% Penetration:
0 Aces: -0.768
1 Ace: -0.682
2 Aces: -0.5771
3 Aces: -0.4544
4 Aces: -0.3132
5 Aces: -0.1537
6 Aces: 0.0218
7 Aces: 0.2189
8 Aces: 0.4296

Of course, you have to take into account how often you will get to an advantage count; it's about 1 in 6.5 decks with 50%, and 1 in 9.5 with 75%.

I rarely play blackjack anymore. But even if I did, I wouldn’t play the side bet.

But one question: Is the straight flush any two suited consecutive cards?

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: DRich

Would counting aces make this game beatable if they dealt 1.5 decks?
link to original post

Challenge accepted!

Here's what I get in simulation ("aces" refers to how many are still in the deck; the number is the expected value on a bet of 1)

75% Penetration:
0 Aces: -0.7687
1 Ace: -0.5954
2 Aces: -0.3485
3 Aces: -0.0263
4 Aces: 0.3684
5 Aces: 0.8357
6 Aces: 1.3811
7 Aces: 1.9393
8 Aces: 2.841

50% Penetration:
0 Aces: -0.768
1 Ace: -0.682
2 Aces: -0.5771
3 Aces: -0.4544
4 Aces: -0.3132
5 Aces: -0.1537
6 Aces: 0.0218
7 Aces: 0.2189
8 Aces: 0.4296

Of course, you have to take into account how often you will get to an advantage count; it's about 1 in 6.5 decks with 50%, and 1 in 9.5 with 75%.
link to original post

ThatDonGuy,

I am confused by your closing paragraph, which seems to imply that +EV counts will occur more frequently with 50% pen than with 75% pen.

Can you clarify?

Dog Hand

Quote: DJTeddyBear

But one question: Is the straight flush any two suited consecutive cards?
link to original post

Yes. Anyone attempting the math should be careful to not double count ace+king, which is both a blackjack and a straight flush.

My opinion as a dealer:

- Hit frequency is about once every eleven hands. I wish that was a little higher, but it's not terrible.

- Payouts are decent. I like that the payouts aren't nice round numbers like they tend to be. Payouts like 45 and 130 give the players a little extra money to tip with. Easier to get a tip from $450 than from $400.

- House edge is high, but I guess it has to be high to combat possible countability. At least it's not Lucky Ladies high.

Overall, I'd enjoy dealing it, but I probably wouldn't play it due to its high house edge.

Quote: DogHand

ThatDonGuy,

I am confused by your closing paragraph, which seems to imply that +EV counts will occur more frequently with 50% pen than with 75% pen.

Can you clarify?

Dog Hand
link to original post

You understand it correctly - a +EV count will be 50% more likely at the 50% penetration point than at the 75% penetration point.

Keep in mind that my numbers are not "50% or more penetration" versus "75% or more penetration"; it's at those two specific points (i.e. 52 cards dealt versus 78).

This is one of the reasons the actual EVs are higher with 75% penetration than with 50%.

Quote: Wizard

I hear the Orleans has a new blackjack side bet called the Mardis Gras. It is seen on their double-deck game only. The following table shows the pay table and my analysis. I haven't had it confirmed. Anyone agree or disagree with my math?

Event	Pays	Combinations	Probability	Return
A/K diamonds	130	4	0.000747	0.097087
Suited aces	45	4	0.000747	0.033607
Unsuited aces	25	24	0.004481	0.112024
Suited blackjack	15	60	0.011202	0.168036
Unsuited blackjack	5	192	0.035848	0.179238
Straight flush	5	192	0.035848	0.179238
All other	-1	4880	0.911128	-0.911128
Total		5356	1.000000	-0.141897

Note: Edited 5:00 PM, 9/24/24

The question for the poll is would you make this side bet if playing anyway? Multiple votes allowed.
link to original post

Close! (just kidding!) I decided to monkey it up, and according to the CApuchin combinatorial analysis engine it is: -0.1418969401856884

Remove an Ace of Diamonds and it is -0.2613744578702608

Remove any other ace: -0.2175899529102026

Remove King of Diamonds: -0.1840852882451145

And I shall go no further, as something counterintuitive is revealed with further examination.