Poll

No votes (0%)
1 vote (9.09%)
8 votes (72.72%)
5 votes (45.45%)
No votes (0%)
2 votes (18.18%)
3 votes (27.27%)
5 votes (45.45%)
3 votes (27.27%)
2 votes (18.18%)

11 members have voted

Wizard
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Wizard
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September 24th, 2024 at 7:25:34 AM permalink
I hear the Orleans has a new blackjack side bet called the Mardis Gras. It is seen on their double-deck game only. The following table shows the pay table and my analysis. I haven't had it confirmed. Anyone agree or disagree with my math?

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
A/K diamonds 130 4 0.000747 0.097087
Suited aces 45 4 0.000747 0.033607
Unsuited aces 25 24 0.004481 0.112024
Suited blackjack 15 60 0.011202 0.168036
Unsuited blackjack 5 192 0.035848 0.179238
Straight flush 5 192 0.035848 0.179238
All other -1 4880 0.911128 -0.911128
Total 5356 1.000000 -0.141897

Note: Edited 5:00 PM, 9/24/24

The question for the poll is would you make this side bet if playing anyway? Multiple votes allowed.
Last edited by: Wizard on Sep 24, 2024
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
DRich
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September 24th, 2024 at 7:44:05 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I hear the Orleans has a new blackjack side bet called the Mardis Gras. It is seen on their double-deck game only. The following table shows the pay table and my analysis. I haven't had it confirmed. Anyone agree or disagree with my math?

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
A/K diamonds 130 4 0.000747 0.097087
Suited aces 45 4 0.000747 0.033607
Unsuited aces 25 24 0.004481 0.112024
Suited blackjack 15 60 0.011202 0.168036
Unsuited blackjack 5 192 0.035848 0.179238
Straight flush 5 208 0.038835 0.194175
All other -1 4864 0.908140 -0.908140
Total 5356 1.000000 -0.123973


The question for the poll is would you make this side bet if playing anyway? Multiple votes allowed.
link to original post



Would counting aces make this game beatable if they dealt 1.5 decks?
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Wizard
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September 24th, 2024 at 10:02:18 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Would counting aces make this game beatable if they dealt 1.5 decks?
link to original post



I haven't studied it, but my educated guess it would be very countable with 75% penetration.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ThatDonGuy
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September 24th, 2024 at 4:30:19 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Would counting aces make this game beatable if they dealt 1.5 decks?
link to original post


Challenge accepted!

Here's what I get in simulation ("aces" refers to how many are still in the deck; the number is the expected value on a bet of 1)

75% Penetration:
0 Aces: -0.7687
1 Ace: -0.5954
2 Aces: -0.3485
3 Aces: -0.0263
4 Aces: 0.3684
5 Aces: 0.8357
6 Aces: 1.3811
7 Aces: 1.9393
8 Aces: 2.841

50% Penetration:
0 Aces: -0.768
1 Ace: -0.682
2 Aces: -0.5771
3 Aces: -0.4544
4 Aces: -0.3132
5 Aces: -0.1537
6 Aces: 0.0218
7 Aces: 0.2189
8 Aces: 0.4296

Of course, you have to take into account how often you will get to an advantage count; it's about 1 in 6.5 decks with 50%, and 1 in 9.5 with 75%.
DJTeddyBear
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September 25th, 2024 at 3:20:29 AM permalink
I rarely play blackjack anymore. But even if I did, I wouldn’t play the side bet.

But one question: Is the straight flush any two suited consecutive cards?
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
DogHand
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September 25th, 2024 at 5:16:16 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: DRich

Would counting aces make this game beatable if they dealt 1.5 decks?
link to original post


Challenge accepted!

Here's what I get in simulation ("aces" refers to how many are still in the deck; the number is the expected value on a bet of 1)

75% Penetration:
0 Aces: -0.7687
1 Ace: -0.5954
2 Aces: -0.3485
3 Aces: -0.0263
4 Aces: 0.3684
5 Aces: 0.8357
6 Aces: 1.3811
7 Aces: 1.9393
8 Aces: 2.841

50% Penetration:
0 Aces: -0.768
1 Ace: -0.682
2 Aces: -0.5771
3 Aces: -0.4544
4 Aces: -0.3132
5 Aces: -0.1537
6 Aces: 0.0218
7 Aces: 0.2189
8 Aces: 0.4296

Of course, you have to take into account how often you will get to an advantage count; it's about 1 in 6.5 decks with 50%, and 1 in 9.5 with 75%.
link to original post


ThatDonGuy,

I am confused by your closing paragraph, which seems to imply that +EV counts will occur more frequently with 50% pen than with 75% pen.

Can you clarify?

Dog Hand
Wizard
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September 25th, 2024 at 9:33:18 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

But one question: Is the straight flush any two suited consecutive cards?
link to original post



Yes. Anyone attempting the math should be careful to not double count ace+king, which is both a blackjack and a straight flush.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Deucekies
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September 25th, 2024 at 10:45:55 AM permalink
My opinion as a dealer:

- Hit frequency is about once every eleven hands. I wish that was a little higher, but it's not terrible.

- Payouts are decent. I like that the payouts aren't nice round numbers like they tend to be. Payouts like 45 and 130 give the players a little extra money to tip with. Easier to get a tip from $450 than from $400.

- House edge is high, but I guess it has to be high to combat possible countability. At least it's not Lucky Ladies high.

Overall, I'd enjoy dealing it, but I probably wouldn't play it due to its high house edge.
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ThatDonGuy
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September 25th, 2024 at 6:19:22 PM permalink
Quote: DogHand


ThatDonGuy,

I am confused by your closing paragraph, which seems to imply that +EV counts will occur more frequently with 50% pen than with 75% pen.

Can you clarify?

Dog Hand
link to original post


You understand it correctly - a +EV count will be 50% more likely at the 50% penetration point than at the 75% penetration point.

Keep in mind that my numbers are not "50% or more penetration" versus "75% or more penetration"; it's at those two specific points (i.e. 52 cards dealt versus 78).

This is one of the reasons the actual EVs are higher with 75% penetration than with 50%.
AutomaticMonkey
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October 1st, 2024 at 7:45:57 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I hear the Orleans has a new blackjack side bet called the Mardis Gras. It is seen on their double-deck game only. The following table shows the pay table and my analysis. I haven't had it confirmed. Anyone agree or disagree with my math?

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
A/K diamonds 130 4 0.000747 0.097087
Suited aces 45 4 0.000747 0.033607
Unsuited aces 25 24 0.004481 0.112024
Suited blackjack 15 60 0.011202 0.168036
Unsuited blackjack 5 192 0.035848 0.179238
Straight flush 5 192 0.035848 0.179238
All other -1 4880 0.911128 -0.911128
Total 5356 1.000000 -0.141897

Note: Edited 5:00 PM, 9/24/24

The question for the poll is would you make this side bet if playing anyway? Multiple votes allowed.
link to original post



Close! (just kidding!) I decided to monkey it up, and according to the CApuchin combinatorial analysis engine it is: -0.1418969401856884

Remove an Ace of Diamonds and it is -0.2613744578702608

Remove any other ace: -0.2175899529102026

Remove King of Diamonds: -0.1840852882451145

And I shall go no further, as something counterintuitive is revealed with further examination.
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