railer
Joined: Mar 2, 2012
• Posts: 45
October 30th, 2022 at 12:27:57 PM permalink
Does the Expectation for "Hit" assume one card and one card ONLY is drawn by the player? Thanks.

DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
• Posts: 10301
October 30th, 2022 at 2:23:58 PM permalink
Quote: railer

Does the Expectation for "Hit" assume one card and one card ONLY is drawn by the player? Thanks.

I believe that is the final expectation of the hand and does not assume a single hit.
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railer
Joined: Mar 2, 2012
• Posts: 45
October 30th, 2022 at 2:41:39 PM permalink
Thanks. So, the obvious follow up question.... how is the expectation calculated then?
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
• Posts: 14923
October 30th, 2022 at 3:00:42 PM permalink
brute force. Take the cards in question and run thru every possible combination.
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railer
Joined: Mar 2, 2012
• Posts: 45
October 30th, 2022 at 6:29:30 PM permalink
OK. So, what kind of "brute force" is it? Does the player stop hitting when he reaches 17 or higher?
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
• Posts: 4402
October 30th, 2022 at 6:30:10 PM permalink
I am confirming what has been said. The hit option assumes you will hit as many cards as needed according to perfect strategy. So, yes you always stop at hard 17 (versus 7-A) unless you have input a weird "shoe composition".
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Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 25448
October 30th, 2022 at 7:38:05 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I believe that is the final expectation of the hand and does not assume a single hit.

That is correct. It assumes the play follows optimal strategy the rest of the hand, after the play in question.
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railer
Joined: Mar 2, 2012
• Posts: 45
October 31st, 2022 at 9:46:36 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

That is correct. It assumes the play follows optimal strategy the rest of the hand, after the play in question.

That's really impressive.

So if I understand this correctly, ...the expectation*probability is calculated for the player hand being hit once with every possible card... then the program calculates the expectation and probability of each decision point (hit or stand) after that... choosing the best decision given the remaining subset of cards?
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Oct 31, 2022
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
• Posts: 4402
October 31st, 2022 at 9:58:51 AM permalink
Quote: railer

Quote: Wizard

That is correct. It assumes the play follows optimal strategy the rest of the hand, after the play in question.

That's really impressive.

So if I understand this correctly, ...the expectation*probability is calculated for the player hand being hit once with every possible card... then the program calculates the expectation and probability of each decision point (hit or stand) after that... choosing the best decision given the remaining subset of cards?

Yes. That's correct. It is one of two internet BJ hand calculators that do this. The other one is bjstrat. The answers between the two calculators have been extensively checked and are equivalent. Wizard's calculator provides 6 digits of accuracy to the right of the decimal point, whereas the bjstrat calculator only provides 4 digits. The bjstrat calculator does provide some other output information not available on the Wizard's calculator, such as probability of dealer outcomes.
Last edited by: gordonm888 on Oct 31, 2022
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009