Seneca Buffalo Creek - consecutive cards in a show game odds...

I just have an odds question. So I'm at Seneca Bflo Creek at 7am and after losing a little at a 50/1000 pair square table, I went to play slots and some 15/300 house money for 20 minutes. I got back in for $200 at the same table with a new shoe and within 4 hands early in the shoe the following happened: 4 people were at the table with the dealer in what I think was a 6 deck shoe.

Dealer deals all the players K's on their first cads and he dealt himself one. All the players got crap second cards (3-7s) and he had another K underneath wiping out the table that hand. I'm just wonder what the odds are of getting 5 consecutive cards in a 6 deck shoe. It doesn't seem very probable to me. I'm also going to add that all the player cards were red K's. I'm going to start going elsewhere cause the only reason I gravitate to the shoe games are the 15/300 and 25/500 games are all done with the automatic shufflers. I feel I have a better chance with a set shoe. But after seeing nonsense like this it takes all the fun out of the game for me.

I'm just wondering what the probability is of that happening at a straight casino cause I'm leaning towards Bflo Creek isn't totally legit.

The way I see it is a 6 deck shoe has 312 cards, 5 in a row doesn't seem very probable considering there are only 24 in the shoe. Clearly it is possible but what are the odds of that happening? Even if it was an 8 deck shoe and there are 416 cards, 32Ks.

Especially maybe the dealer didn't shuffle at all. The guy didn't even bother to offer me insurance one hand earlier when I had BJ and he had an Ace showing. He caught BJ twice in a row. Just seems like I had a bad day or maybe they set it up that way...

I’m too lazy to do it exactly, but if the question is ‘how likely in a 6 deck game will the next 5 cards all be the same (not including suit or color), the answer is around 1 in 50,000. You probably paid no mind to the previous 49,999 hands dealt.

What's the odds of getting any 1 card? Well, pick a random card and go with it. Let's say a King! What's the odds of getting 1 king from 1 "randomly shuffled" deck? 4/52 = 1/13

So out of 6 decks? 24/312... = 1/13

Whenever you want to do these kinds of stats questions, a good way to remember how to do them is if you're saying the problem and use the word "and" then you multiply the probabilities. If you say "or" then it's additive. Example:

What's the odds of the first card being a King AND the second card is a King?

P(K AND K) = P(1st K) * P(2nd K) = 24/312 * 23/311 ....note here after the first king is removed, we have 1 less king, and 1 less card in the shoe. Thus, the odds of a 2nd one change to 23/311.

So now you should be able to connect the dots...

What's the odds of Player 1 getting a King and Player 2 getting a King and Player 3 getting a King and Player 4 getting a King and Player 5 getting a king?

P(5 kings) = P(1st K) * P(2nd K) * P(3rd K) * P(4th K) * P(5th K)
P(5 kings) = (24/312) * (23/311) * (22/310) * (21/309) * (20/308) = (.0769) * (.0740) * (.0710) * (.0680) * (.0649)

P(5 kings) = 0.00000178307 ... or roughly 1 in 560,000.

Now for RED kings, you should be able to do that on your own. I'll give you a hint. The probability of the 1st red king is 12/312.

Okay, okay I'll admit the 5 RED kings got me curious... so the result is here, but I would urge you to try it first on your own!



Most people don't realize the 1st one is rare, but given all of the casinos in the world, and all of the blackjack tables in the world, and all of the shoes dealt every hour of every single day.... it WILL happen eventually and will only seem rare to you because you're the one that see's it. But all of these things that are rare still do happen. Even 1 in 560,000... An average blackjack table deals ~75 hands per hour. Say a casino has 5 tables, that's 375 hands PER HOUR. In just 1 day they'll deal out 5,250 hands (I only did 14 hours instead of 24 hours because casinos are "more" dead from 2am-noon). So now there are what, ~10,000 casinos world wide (ty google). That means casinos (on average - yes some casinos have 2 tables, some have 20.... etc) on any 1 given day will deal out approximately 52,500,000 hands. Thus, this event of ~1/500,000 will happen 105 times a day throughout the world. Not too uncommon all of the sudden.

However, this 1 in 30,000,000... that's getting in to pretty f'in rare territory. If I saw that I would also not thing the deal was legit. Though my first thought might be if the cards accidently were NOT shuffled, clearly.

Had a scenario where a BJ table offering the Blazing 7's progressive jackpot had one round where Seven 7's including the dealer's up card, came out on One draw. Yet nobody among the 3 players dealt two Sevens had the $5 bet active for the payout of 200-1! One old lady who was betting it, of course was not dealt any 7's much to her dismay!

The cards were mostly mixed colored 7's though and one guy had matching 7 spades, the dealer's up card was 7 diamonds. And in this casino the Jackpot is triggered by Two Diamond Sevens dealt to the player with the dealer up card being a 7D as well. They all joked, well at least we didn't get dealt two 7D each!! The old lady was not amused...

I tend to keep the math simple and merely say:

Shit happens.

A funny thing now is crap does happen. In the buffalo creek parking garage there was a shootout saturday morning Oct 29th. They must have been upset over dealers chiseling them out bad cards and not able to turn it around at craps. I never imagined I would have to go up to Niagara Falls to get a straight game and less possibility of getting caught in crossfire but who knew. Please avoid Buffalo Creek casino unless you are really in a pinch. The place sucks...

Quote: DJTeddyBear

I tend to keep the math simple and merely say:

Shit happens.
link to original post

Warning: Rule 6 violation for use of profanity. C'mon, DJ, you know better. In my opinion, this was outside of the flow of the conversation and seems completely unnecessary. I will keep this as a warning but one of the other moderators may come after me and make this a suspension and I won't have a counter-argument why it shouldn't be.

I wouldn't consider sh*t profanity myself. I'll use crap happens. It wasn't intended to be malicious and wasn't used in bad context. Crap is stinky and it stinks. That is all DJ was trying to say. Community guidelines shouldn't flag the word sh*t when its used in a non-agitating friendly manner simply meaning it stinks. I assume most subscribers on the wizards sight are adults with an interest in odds and gambling. We don't need to be treated like kids in catholic school and whipped with a yard stick...

Quote: wizardofbuffalo

I wouldn't consider sh*t profanity myself. I'll use crap happens. It wasn't intended to be malicious and wasn't used in bad context. Crap is stinky and it stinks. That is all DJ was trying to say. Community guidelines shouldn't flag the word sh*t when its used in a non-agitating friendly manner simply meaning it stinks. I assume most subscribers on the wizards sight are adults with an interest in odds and gambling. We don't need to be treated like kids in catholic school and whipped with a yard stick...
link to original post

I agree with a lot of what've you say and you've given some reasons why it was a warning rather than a suspension. A warning just means that you shouldn't do it again, and doesn't penalize you in any way -which I hope you'll agree is different than being "treated like kids in catholic school and whipped with a yard stick...." The ownership/leadership of this site doesn't want that kind of language to be what people see when they log onto the site and browse the threads. As a result, "No profanity" is a posted rule, Rule #6, and the other moderators and I try to use common sense in enforcing it. We're not perfect, and there are gray areas and we do listen to comments like yours and take them on board.

Thank you for the clarification. If I mess up in the future, please give me a warning. I like the website and
find some of the information on it useful. The rest of it is good entertainment like we get from the Adventures
of MDawg.. We are all adults here without over moderation and censorship. If it was such a big deal to the
administrators, why not give DJ a warning and notify him that you are deleting his thread post because it
contained what was deemed to be 'profanity' by Rule 6...? Thank you for helping with the website monitoring...

Quote: wizardofbuffalo

Thank you for the clarification. If I mess up in the future, please give me a warning. I like the website and
find some of the information on it useful. The rest of it is good entertainment like we get from the Adventures
of MDawg.. We are all adults here without over moderation and censorship. If it was such a big deal to the
administrators, why not give DJ a warning and notify him that you are deleting his thread post because it
contained what was deemed to be 'profanity' by Rule 6...? Thank you for helping with the website monitoring...
link to original post

We have a general policy of not deleting anyone's post, unless it is a spammer or marketeer. Not 100% certain why that's our policy, but I assume it's because most members don't like seeing their posts deleted.

Yes we are all adults, but not everyone is emotionally well-adjusted. We get a lot of 'life's rich pageant' parading through here. Some seem to use the forum to vent or to joust & feud with others. Good members occasionally have bad days. For others, it seems that every day is a bad day. 'Moderation in moderation' is one of our administrator team's mantras, but we are also reminded by members to be consistent and let them know where the lines are. C'est la vie.

I get it. You get some agitators that like to push people's buttons and be a**holes.

So a few words I hear a lot at the casinos I go to include: S*it, F*ck, D*mn, and M*nkey.
I presume all those are no-nos on rule 6... Can we as posters use a single asterisk to make a
no-no word acceptable to express our emotions?

Uhm, no. I'd delete your post before somebody quotes it.

Quote: wizardofbuffalo

I presume all those are no-nos on rule 6... Can we as posters use a single asterisk to make a
no-no word acceptable to express our emotions?
link to original post

It is heartily discouraged.
It may be possible, of course, but I take the intent of your question to be "can I do (simple obfuscation) and neatly avoid all possibility of suspension for swearing?" No-no.

"Monkey" is possibly fine, if it is absolutely clear you're talking about a face card. I think that falls under rule 18, not rule 6.

Quote: Dieter

Quote: wizardofbuffalo

I presume all those are no-nos on rule 6... Can we as posters use a single asterisk to make a
no-no word acceptable to express our emotions?
link to original post

It is heartily discouraged.
It may be possible, of course, but I take the intent of your question to be "can I do (simple obfuscation) and neatly avoid all possibility of suspension for swearing?" No-no.

"Monkey" is possibly fine, if it is absolutely clear you're talking about a face card. I think that falls under rule 18, not rule 6.
link to original post

Monkey should be fine.

So should "It's dawn and the Cock is crowing".

I hope I would not be suspended for using the word Cock.

We frown on masking profanity with asterisks (although it is better than spelling it outright.) We are basically asking people to keep it polite. Pretend you are being televised and adjust your speech accordingly.

I specifically do NOT recommend using an asterisk form of the F-bomb (especially with a single asterisk, lol.) And, there are many less offensive words that can be substituted for 's**t', so I don't recommend that either.

The occasional use of the word 'damn' is usually allowed.

The word Monkey is not profanity, but if it is used as a racial slur then no asterisk will save you.

The appropriate usage of words such as cock and ass in reference to farm animals should be fine, but we would expect those situations to be rare. We really don't need lawyerly definitions. Profanity is like pornography: we know it when we see it.