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Joined: Apr 26, 2022
May 11th, 2022 at 1:19:56 AM permalink
Is it a good move to make the wrong play, when the deck is very thin and the count is very high. Every additional card drawn eats up at that high count.

Let's say you're alone vs the dealer, nobody else at the table. The deck has about 1 deck left out of 8, and the TC is +12. Your hand is something like soft 18 vs dealer T. Do you hit here? Or do you say "barely makes a difference, I'll just stand and save the potential high card for the next hand"

I'm assuming I'm not the first one to think of this. Although I seem to struggle to find a consensus attempting to google it online.
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May 11th, 2022 at 2:17:30 AM permalink
From a pure "EV of that hand" it is generally not a good move^^^ for "soft 18 vs dealer T".

Likely EV ranges for hitting (tc +12, 1 deck): -25% to -28% (rounded to whole %)

Likely EV ranges for standing (tc +12, 1 deck): -30% to -31% (rounded to whole %)

^^^: Unless you knew the exact count of each individual card-value, for example , if there were "no 3's left in the shoe" , then in that scenario, standing would a good play .
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May 11th, 2022 at 6:41:45 AM permalink
Super interesting question. I hope Romes of kewlj see this thread and post.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
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