heatmap
heatmap
Joined: Feb 12, 2018
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March 12th, 2022 at 11:18:18 AM permalink
This is a stupid question because I already know the answer but

I am having a personal issue with a couple of specific scenarios

Specifically when the dealer has a 7 showing

Anyways my question is if someone can run a quick simulation for standing on 15 and above against the dealers 7 and how much of an edge does it give to the casino Ö I am hitting 14 and below though

I should also mention this is on a csm not a shoe
Last edited by: heatmap on Mar 12, 2022
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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March 12th, 2022 at 12:22:46 PM permalink
I surrender with a 16 vs a 9, 10, A and also 15 vs A. Card counters may have different ideas depending on the count.
Ace2
Ace2
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heatmap
March 12th, 2022 at 12:23:51 PM permalink
You can look up the expected returns for any hand here: https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/9/6dh17r4/

Here's an estimate:

The expected return is about 0.48/0.37 for standing/hitting on 15 vs 7 and about 0.48/0.41 for 16 vs 7, so this is by no means a borderline play like 16 vs 10. Let's assume you are lowering your return by 0.09 each time you stand on these hands.

Assuming infinite deck, you will be initially dealt 15 or 16 23/13^2 (13.6%) of the time. Estimate you will end up with 15 or 16 20% of the time after hitting other starting hands. Times 1/13 that the dealer shows 7 is 1.54%, which is how often you will see this scenario. So 1.54% of the time you are reducing your return by 0.09, which is about 14 basis points. Assuming you play proper basic strategy, the house edge is about 50 basis points, so this play increases the edge by nearly 30%

Note: the 20% figure used above is a guesstimate
Itís all about making that GTA
heatmap
heatmap
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March 12th, 2022 at 12:27:48 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

I surrender with a 16 vs a 9, 10, A and also 15 vs A. Card counters may have different ideas depending on the count.
link to original post



yeah im mostly playing basic strategy - except for this specific scenario i said above

half of the time i stay with anything 15 and above and hit with 14 and below

the other half of the time im hitting with the correct strategy its almost random

i know its stupid but the 7 in the dealers hand is seemingly a special case to me for some odd reason
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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March 12th, 2022 at 1:04:35 PM permalink
If you can predict a dealer bust, you can stand.
Ace2
Ace2
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March 12th, 2022 at 1:06:24 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

If you can predict a dealer bust, you can stand.
link to original post

Locals can. Tourists can't
Itís all about making that GTA
gordonm888
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March 12th, 2022 at 3:45:52 PM permalink
Let's first consider 87 vs 7 with 8 decks. Note that both 8 and 7 are cards you want out of the deck if hitting a 15, but their removal from the deck also helps the dealer drawing to a 7.

Stand: EV= - 47.86%
Hit: EV = - 36.44%
ΔEV= 11.54%

For a T5 vs 7, I get:

Stand: EV= - 47.56%
Hit: EV = - 36.91%
ΔEV= 10.65%
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.

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