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January 2nd, 2022 at 12:39:52 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Quote: Follow

Quote: Romes

This seems very much written as a casino employee trying to figure out if/what a player is doing because they can't fathom that they're actually "up."

Firstly, 20k hands is not enough hands to land on EV in blackjack. So if you're simply going off numbers and 20k hands is your big data dump, then sure things could trend one way, but you cannot with any certainty claim one thing or another (just going off the data you posted).

Next, others have responded and more will, but the answer to all of your questions and more are available if you do a bit more research. In the case that you might be a casino employee trying to make the life of a regular customer, or possibly an AP, worst, I won't help that. Casinos have not been very friendly to me, even though I'm friendly to everyone, so sadly, I don't see the need to help any casino continue to do that.



This is a very interesting response. First, to answer your question, I am not a casino employee. I do run a local betting site and I am scratching my head over the records of a couple of my players who happen to be related and are posting some very questionable numbers.



Analysts get consulting fees to analyze things for businesses, usually.

I also decline to do people's homework projects for them, generally.

I am not trying to beat you up.

If you choose to make money through gambling, you should probably pay up when you lose. Many players have paid you when you won.

If you no longer care to offer the game, that is your decision.



I'm happy to pay a consultant a fee for their services. In fact, before coming to this forum I emailed "Wizard of Odds" proposing exactly that arrangement. But generally one doesn't offer something like that in a discussion forum when you're discussing the topic of the forum. If there is someone who is willing to pore over all of the data I have and give me a detailed analysis, I am more than happy to compensate them for their time. I feel like there is a certain impression of people that some of you are carrying without asking the other person if they fit the description made in your mind.

I don't know what kind of impression I've given of myself, but my operation is very small, local, and only caters to people and agents I know personally. This kind of operation generally doesn't color far outside the lines, maybe 5k here and 15k there, but the discrepancy I'm showing on my books is over 100k. That is a major difference from anything that has happened before. In consulting with other, larger books that are similar to me, they have never seen such a thing either. There is more to it than just this blackjack anomaly, but I assumed this would be a fair place to analyze the blackjack anomaly on its own.

I am well known in my community as a person who pays all debts. If these activities are found to be entirely legitimate, I will pay every penny. Even if these discrepancies are found to be cheating, I will come to a settlement for my players of some kind before banning them. In my world of poker and other forms of gambling, I am the one who never owes a soul and I pride myself on being entirely transparent and honest with everyone. My transparency is such that even the players involved in this investigation, know that I am investigating. I am paying them a small amount weekly while I am investigating. That is the reason I am here and other places trying to get this right and be fair with everyone. I think most in my situation would walk away, ban the players for cheating out of hand, and wash their hands of the situation. I am working a full time job trying to crunch numbers and analyze spreadsheets to ensure I am being fair.

As to "doing my homework" for me, I am perfectly willing to take any time necessary to do the math myself, but I find myself incapable, which is why I'm here. Most of the time when people link some kind of primer on how to do whatever kind of math, it is appreciated, but they require a certain initiation that comes from formal education. I don't have that, and therefore can't understand the symbols which puts a stop to most of what I'm trying to accomplish. All of my ability comes from self teaching, I have no degrees and very little formal education.
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January 2nd, 2022 at 1:02:19 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Quote: Follow

Quote: Romes

This seems very much written as a casino employee trying to figure out if/what a player is doing because they can't fathom that they're actually "up."

Firstly, 20k hands is not enough hands to land on EV in blackjack. So if you're simply going off numbers and 20k hands is your big data dump, then sure things could trend one way, but you cannot with any certainty claim one thing or another (just going off the data you posted).

Next, others have responded and more will, but the answer to all of your questions and more are available if you do a bit more research. In the case that you might be a casino employee trying to make the life of a regular customer, or possibly an AP, worst, I won't help that. Casinos have not been very friendly to me, even though I'm friendly to everyone, so sadly, I don't see the need to help any casino continue to do that.



Your biases and telling me that you are disinclined to help me with math because I might be a "casino employee" and since others whom you identify with the same moniker haven't been nice to you seems rather prejudicial and rude to me. You make your decisions as you like, but in the end I'm trying to find a way for these numbers to show me how likely the player is to be legit rather than the other way around. I have a friendly and personal relationship with every one of my players, and it would be pretty terrible for me to uncover real cheating on my site.


Interesting.
So, you run the online site and a member, or couple of members are beating your game in ways that are suspicious?

Please forgive, but expect some hostility from the AP community that gather on forums such as this.

Maybe they have discovered an anomaly in your software.... licenced from where?
They may be disrespecting your rules, but if they play the game with the features you offer, then what cheating is possible? Maybe consult your software provider?

You are going to have to do some deep dive analysis. Do they get more blackjacks than expected. Do they always get insurance decisions right? Do they wong in and out? etc etc.



I don't know what "wong in and out" means, but I think I can answer most of your other questions here.

1. Yes, these players are showing wins that are far outside of the norm. The blackjack aspect of this is showing a player who is posting wins in approximately 75% of sessions with only something like 8% (these are rough numbers from memory) reaching the expected -0.05% loss. The play itself is not perfect strategy and bets are flat. So realistically, their loss should be even greater than the -0.05%.

2. The software is an afterthought on a sports betting site rented from an offshore company. They won't give me too many details of the inner workings of the software, but they have told me enough to know that their RNG is a Pseudo RNG and not a True RNG. Do you feel that cracking a Pseudo RNG with a bot or similar software is "playing the game with the features I offer?" If cheating is happening, this is my leading theory.

3. A deep dive analysis is tricky. As you know, there are over 20,000 hands to look at so it is a monumentally large amount of data to click through one at a time. Also, such detailed data are not carried after 3 weeks of time. We are looking at a time frame of around 1.5 months here, which means roughly half of the hands are no longer available.

To close, I still have many other active players that are showing normal numbers with some expected anomalies here and there. There are many others who are using the blackjack software as well, showing pretty normal runs, up a little/down a little, etc... I've had some people go on big runs winning 2k or 4k in short terms from tiny starting bankrolls. But, in this case I have 2 players who are related breaking the curve entirely in ways that I have never seen nor have any of my colleagues. More importantly, the run for both of these related players continues for nearly 2 months of posting extremely unlikely wins including the two accounts being related in wins and losses too. Again, this is only one part of my investigation just from a purely mathematical point of view. I am also looking into this issue from other angles as well.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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January 2nd, 2022 at 1:56:26 PM permalink
OK...... Winning percentage of sessions would not be a meaningful measure if they were employing some money management process, such as chasing losses with a Martingale or similar. E.g, if the come to your game prepared to lose 100000 or profit by 1000, they would win about 98% of sessions. See https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/7/#post1370 for an explanation of that. My 'Oncedear rule of thumb; is mostly used to debunk money management systems, but does actually apply to flat betting.
Just how flat are they betting? Most live players will spice up their sessions with some bet variation.

Wong in or out: I'll give you that as a freebie. A card counter would classically ramp up his bet in a favourable count and min bet in an unfavourable account. But taken to an extreme, he may 'wong out' = simply desist from playing when unfavourable and 'wong in' Restart playing when the count is favourable.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
gordonm888
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OnceDear
January 2nd, 2022 at 4:26:58 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

OK...... Winning percentage of sessions would not be a meaningful measure if they were employing some money management process, such as chasing losses with a Martingale or similar. E.g, if the come to your game prepared to lose 100000 or profit by 1000, they would win about 98% of sessions. See https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/7/#post1370 for an explanation of that. My 'Oncedear rule of thumb; is mostly used to debunk money management systems, but does actually apply to flat betting.
Just how flat are they betting? Most live players will spice up their sessions with some bet variation.

Wong in or out: I'll give you that as a freebie. A card counter would classically ramp up his bet in a favourable count and min bet in an unfavourable account. But taken to an extreme, he may 'wong out' = simply desist from playing when unfavourable and 'wong in' Restart playing when the count is favourable.
link to original post



OP has said that the game is continuous shuffle, so card counting tactics and wonging should not be a valid hypothesis. Money management is clearly not a viable explanation and nobody has suggested that.

I think that it is likely/probable that the player in question is exploiting some vulnerability in your software.

I have analyzed files of 1 million hands for other online casino operators, If OP can download the 20,000 hands as an excel file I will look at them for free. Send me a message on this site 's PM system if there is an interest..
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
Dieter
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January 2nd, 2022 at 5:45:34 PM permalink
Quote: Follow

I don't know what kind of impression I've given of myself, but my operation is very small, local, and only caters to people and agents I know personally.
link to original post



(context trimmed)

Sounds to me like you're doing mostly the right things.

I apologize for preemptively assuming it might be otherwise.

Best of luck in your research,
-D
May the cards fall in your favor.
Romes
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January 11th, 2022 at 8:49:28 PM permalink
Follow, I hope you understand that no one is saying you're a bad guy, just that we nailed it on the head about you working for, or should I say owning, a casino. Many people come through these forums, and it's usually pretty apparent by their posts who they are, what they're looking for, and what their education level on the topics at hand are.

You'll find regular gamblers on any forum but you'll also find quite a few people on this forum that it is also their business, like yourself. However the vast majority of people whom are professional gamblers on this site aren't on the casino side, and the casino side has for decades before me (and I'd be willing to bet for decades after me) not been very kind to people who legally beat the games that are offered. As such we've seen tons of casino employees come through the forums over time asking for similar help to try to "get" or "nail" an AP, or just someone they don't know that happens to be winning. 9/10 times these employees are baffled that ANYONE COULD EVER WIN EVER so forgive us if we did in fact judge you a bit as one of these types.

I still answered your question btw. The answers you seek are all readily available, even on this forum. It has a nice search functionality and if you check out other threads you'll quickly learn who the pro's and who the joe's are and thus who's post to search through for your information. That's another reason I responded as such. There's a lot of info on this site, and if we just spoon fed answers to everyone that asked the same repeating questions then they'd come here, post once, get an answer, and then leave... but if you stick around, check the site and other threads out, and possibly participate in sharing interesting information about your experience, then you might find a lot more answers and helpful faces.

Again, I responded with no mal-intent, but on this forum and others that promote mathematical/advantage gambling you'll often find that people don't want to help as much because the casino industry has treated 100% legal advantage gamblers so poorly. So I still stand by my initial response of just pointing you in the right direction.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Gundy
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January 12th, 2022 at 3:02:22 PM permalink
OP- once upon a time I performed the same service you provide. I have since retired.

I had 2 players that were far too "lucky" playing blackjack. I suspected collusion between these two players and the offshore company.

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