kingmaker9999
kingmaker9999
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November 5th, 2021 at 12:56:37 PM permalink
Hi everyone, I am new to this forum, but I have some questions regarding blackjack that tempted my curiosity. I am doing a math major but have never really done the digging into blackjack odds until recently. If any of these questions could be answered it would be amazing. First I will comment on which type of BlackJack game I am talking about (if nothing else is mentioned):

Dealer stands on soft 17, split is allowed once, double ALLOWED but NOT after split, blackjack pays 3:2, 8 decks. I might've forgotten something, but if there is anything missing just let me know.

So my first question is:

1. Does anyone know if you can increase your edge (EV) from counting every single card individually instead of the Hi-Lo approach? Does anyone know about any empirical evidence/studies/papers/article where I can read about it?

This reason I started thinking about this is because I found a calculator online that would show your odds/your optimal decision(hit/stand) of winning against the dealers face-up card after being given your 2 cards, given that you plug in the types of cards that are left in the deck (e.g. ten 2's, sixteen 3's, eight 4's etc.). I think it is likely that knowing every single card that has been dealt can/should even change your basic strategy. The calculator does not show the EV, nor your probability of winning the hand BEFORE it is dealt. This leads to another (very complicated) question.

I haven't really had the time to organize this post properly, but there is another topic I find interesting. Given that we do a full count, wouldn't it be interesting to see a corresponding calculator showing your EV given what cards are left in the deck? Does anyone know if such exists and if anyone has done the calculations on this?

I'd be really appreciative towards anyone dedicating their time to this post, and even if you don't have answers to the questions, it would be nice to join in on the discussion.

Thank you in advance :)
OnceDear
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November 5th, 2021 at 4:01:37 PM permalink
Quote: kingmaker9999

Hi everyone, I am new to this forum, but I have some questions regarding blackjack that tempted my curiosity.

welcome
Quote:

So my first question is:

1. Does anyone know if you can increase your edge (EV) from counting every single card individually instead of the Hi-Lo approach? Does anyone know about any empirical evidence/studies/papers/article where I can read about it?

Yes. Basic card counting like Hi-Low or Opt2 give an estimate of when the house edge turns into a player edge, and by roughly how much. By ramping up bets with the count, one can make profits and counts of that type are easy. Most count systems have levels where strategy changes from basic strategy for even better edge. BUT if one could keep a running tally of each type of card as it is shown, one can do an on the fly re-evaluation of perfect deck dependent strategy. One can also get a more accurate estimate of the edge at any moment in time. There is a middle ground which uses EOR (Effect of removal) which is a kind of count that is not a simple integer. You can only really do such complex processing in real time using a computer as you play. Do it online and it works till they ban you.
Quote:

This reason I started thinking about this is because I found a calculator online that would show your odds/your optimal decision(hit/stand) of winning against the dealers face-up card after being given your 2 cards, given that you plug in the types of cards that are left in the deck (e.g. ten 2's, sixteen 3's, eight 4's etc.). I think it is likely that knowing every single card that has been dealt can/should even change your basic strategy. The calculator does not show the EV, nor your probability of winning the hand BEFORE it is dealt. This leads to another (very complicated) question.

You keep a running tally as cards are shown and take all shown cards into account. Calculating EV and best strategy is actually easy. Probability of winning a hand is not important. You need to research 'kelly criteria' if you want to wager into a +EV game.
Quote:


I haven't really had the time to organize this post properly, but there is another topic I find interesting. Given that we do a full count, wouldn't it be interesting to see a corresponding calculator showing your EV given what cards are left in the deck? Does anyone know if such exists and if anyone has done the calculations on this?

I already answered that. I have such a process. Last time I gave it out, some ******* monetised it for his own benefit. You can build your own by analysing this and modifying it to not be infinite deck, https://youtu.be/jCF-Btu5ZCk
Quote:

link to original post

Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
gordonm888
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November 5th, 2021 at 5:12:49 PM permalink
If you used the actual Effect of Removal for each rank, rather than the tags/counts specified by Hi-Lo, or Hi-Lo-Opt you would have a more efficient card counting method that would allow you to optimize your bets a little better.

The "efficiency" of a card counting method is defined as what your theoretical advantage would be using the card counting method divided by the theoretical advantage of a perfect card counting method. I think the various card counting systems have an efficiency ranging from 75% to 90%. The simplest card counting method is A-5: using -1 for Aces and +1 for Fives. That has a theoretical efficiency that is quite low, I think < 70%.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
OnceDear
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November 5th, 2021 at 5:39:42 PM permalink
I suppose time for a health warning.
With the very best, computer assisted ideal card counting (only workable online), you still get a VERY slim advantage, quite infrequently and would need a very high bankroll to exploit it safely..... Then you would get banned before you could cash out.
There are far better advantage plays than the best card counting system.

There are a handful of card counters here, and they will confirm it's not easy street.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
MDawg
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November 6th, 2021 at 9:34:58 AM permalink
The best advantages are ones that you are able to effect flawlessly.

If you may handle counting everything, do it, but if you make mistakes with more complex counts, you're better off with a simple one.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
Dieter
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November 6th, 2021 at 9:41:53 AM permalink
It seems like a lot of work for an extra 11 cents per hour in expectation.

Perhaps it's more practical to just stay at the table for an extra hand.
May the cards fall in your favor.
kingmaker9999
kingmaker9999
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November 7th, 2021 at 6:07:36 AM permalink
Quote: Dieter

It seems like a lot of work for an extra 11 cents per hour in expectation.

Perhaps it's more practical to just stay at the table for an extra hand.
link to original post



Thank you for your reply :)

Do you have any proof/evidence that the edge gained from a full count is 11 cents per hour? What bankroll/bets are we talking about?
kingmaker9999
kingmaker9999
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November 7th, 2021 at 6:11:25 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Quote: kingmaker9999

Hi everyone, I am new to this forum, but I have some questions regarding blackjack that tempted my curiosity.

welcome
Quote:

So my first question is:

1. Does anyone know if you can increase your edge (EV) from counting every single card individually instead of the Hi-Lo approach? Does anyone know about any empirical evidence/studies/papers/article where I can read about it?

Yes. Basic card counting like Hi-Low or Opt2 give an estimate of when the house edge turns into a player edge, and by roughly how much. By ramping up bets with the count, one can make profits and counts of that type are easy. Most count systems have levels where strategy changes from basic strategy for even better edge. BUT if one could keep a running tally of each type of card as it is shown, one can do an on the fly re-evaluation of perfect deck dependent strategy. One can also get a more accurate estimate of the edge at any moment in time. There is a middle ground which uses EOR (Effect of removal) which is a kind of count that is not a simple integer. You can only really do such complex processing in real time using a computer as you play. Do it online and it works till they ban you.
Quote:

This reason I started thinking about this is because I found a calculator online that would show your odds/your optimal decision(hit/stand) of winning against the dealers face-up card after being given your 2 cards, given that you plug in the types of cards that are left in the deck (e.g. ten 2's, sixteen 3's, eight 4's etc.). I think it is likely that knowing every single card that has been dealt can/should even change your basic strategy. The calculator does not show the EV, nor your probability of winning the hand BEFORE it is dealt. This leads to another (very complicated) question.

You keep a running tally as cards are shown and take all shown cards into account. Calculating EV and best strategy is actually easy. Probability of winning a hand is not important. You need to research 'kelly criteria' if you want to wager into a +EV game.
Quote:


I haven't really had the time to organize this post properly, but there is another topic I find interesting. Given that we do a full count, wouldn't it be interesting to see a corresponding calculator showing your EV given what cards are left in the deck? Does anyone know if such exists and if anyone has done the calculations on this?

I already answered that. I have such a process. Last time I gave it out, some ******* monetised it for his own benefit. You can build your own by analysing this and modifying it to not be infinite deck, /jCF-Btu5ZCk
Quote:

link to original post


link to original post





Thank you for taking your time to answer the wall of text.

I live in a country where it is hard for government licensed online casinos to just not pay out your money unless they have proof beyond any doubt that you break any rules (and they say themselves that card counting is allowed). So I guess you could make a small amount of money from just having software play the game?
Dieter
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November 7th, 2021 at 6:32:52 AM permalink
Quote: kingmaker9999

Quote: Dieter

It seems like a lot of work for an extra 11 cents per hour in expectation.

Perhaps it's more practical to just stay at the table for an extra hand.
link to original post



Thank you for your reply :)

Do you have any proof/evidence that the edge gained from a full count is 11 cents per hour? What bankroll/bets are we talking about?
link to original post



Nope! Numbers from thin air and dubious recollections, I'm afraid.

That would coincide with a $100 average bet and a 0.11% EV improvement, however.

May the cards fall in your favor.
Dieter
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November 7th, 2021 at 6:34:56 AM permalink
Quote: kingmaker9999

So I guess you could make a small amount of money from just having software play the game?
link to original post



Wouldn't that be cheating under many online casino terms and conditions?
May the cards fall in your favor.
kingmaker9999
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November 7th, 2021 at 7:13:48 AM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Quote: kingmaker9999

So I guess you could make a small amount of money from just having software play the game?
link to original post



Wouldn't that be cheating under many online casino terms and conditions?
link to original post




It might be "cheating", but how are they gonna prove it beyond any reasonable doubt?
Mission146
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November 7th, 2021 at 8:34:26 AM permalink
Quote: kingmaker9999




It might be "cheating", but how are they gonna prove it beyond any reasonable doubt?
link to original post



Let's just say that an online casino's standard of proof for cheating is, well, less than that. Actually, any casino's standard of proof. Also, apparently, the legal standard of proof as Phil Ivey was successfully sued (twice) by casinos that put the exact conditions in place that gave him the advantage.

Also, are you going to go as far as to write software that varies the amount of time it takes to make decisions?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
kingmaker9999
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November 7th, 2021 at 8:53:26 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146



Let's just say that an online casino's standard of proof for cheating is, well, less than that. Actually, any casino's standard of proof. Also, apparently, the legal standard of proof as Phil Ivey was successfully sued (twice) by casinos that put the exact conditions in place that gave him the advantage.



As I said earlier, that won't work in the country I live in. If they cannot prove it, there is no way they will be able to keep my money.

I don't have the intention of writing a software, but the software would not be intended to make decisions for you, but rather show you what the correct play and bet is at any given hand.
moses
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November 8th, 2021 at 2:26:57 PM permalink
I was lookin for cards in all the wrong places, looking for cards in all the wrong faces...

Doesn't have to be complex. Simple is as simple does. It just needs to be right...for your game.
moses
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November 8th, 2021 at 2:27:50 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

The best advantages are ones that you are able to effect flawlessly.

If you may handle counting everything, do it, but if you make mistakes with more complex counts, you're better off with a simple one.
link to original post

meant to reply to Mdawg.
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