DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
  • Threads: 80
  • Posts: 8543
Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
July 23rd, 2021 at 12:06:35 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Anyone know the inflection point where more decks becomes better for the player? Be an interesting graph to see.



An infinite deck is more like one deck just the cards are replaced after each hand.

I don't know for sure but I would think the first hand of a new deck or shoe is always the same no matter how many decks, Discarding any cut card effects as a CSM has no cut card.
Order from chaos
billryan
billryan 
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 217
  • Posts: 13330
Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
July 23rd, 2021 at 2:25:41 PM permalink
For the average player, or even an advanced BS player, the only time they are not at a disadvantage is during the shuffle. CSMs destroy that slight advantage.
Simply put- CSMs result in more hands per hour. Good for the house, bad for the players.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 3411
Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
July 23rd, 2021 at 3:00:13 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

For the average player, or even an advanced BS player, the only time they are not at a disadvantage is during the shuffle. CSMs destroy that slight advantage.
Simply put- CSMs result in more hands per hour. Good for the house, bad for the players.



I get that. Not my question.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
gordonm888
Administrator
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
  • Threads: 55
  • Posts: 3627
Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
July 23rd, 2021 at 5:58:31 PM permalink
One person apparently looked at 4 vs 8 decks when the shoes are fresh and gave one answer. (0.083%?)


The other kind of analysis (upon which Bill Ryan's reference to a CSM is based) is a simulation of a depleted shoe that also takes into account that lots of low cards coming out is correlated with getting fewer hands dealt to you before the cut card is reached. This effect is unfavorable to the player because he gets less hands dealt when the shoe is favorable. This effect is worse for shoes with more decks, but more and more decks does not extrapolate to the infinite deck solution because infinite deck models miss this effect entirely.

I think BillRyan's objection is well founded. The actual difference between 4 and 8 deck shoes is less than 0.083%.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 3411
Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
July 23rd, 2021 at 6:17:53 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

One person apparently looked at 4 vs 8 decks when the shoes are fresh and gave one answer. (0.083%?)


The other kind of analysis (upon which Bill Ryan's reference to a CSM is based) is a simulation of a depleted shoe that also takes into account that lots of low cards coming out is correlated with getting fewer hands dealt to you before the cut card is reached. This effect is unfavorable to the player because he gets less hands dealt when the shoe is favorable. This effect is worse for shoes with more decks, but more and more decks does not extrapolate to the infinite deck solution because infinite deck models miss this effect entirely.

I think BillRyan's objection is well founded. The actual difference between 4 and 8 deck shoes is less than 0.083%.



This is interesting. You say the cut card effect gets worse as decks increase? You think itís monotonic as decks approach infinity then drops to zero? I have trouble fathoming that. Though also lack the ability to sim it out.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
  • Threads: 35
  • Posts: 2577
Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
July 24th, 2021 at 6:48:30 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

...lots of low cards coming out is correlated with getting fewer hands dealt to you before the cut card is reached....

With a cut card one issue comes from having to play later hands in any shoes which had a lot of high cards early in the shoe. When I looked at the EV of various hands within a shoe, what happens is most shoes act normally. However occasionally a shoe has more hands than normal and the hands in those shoes towards the end have a worse EV than average. So for instance you might have a regular EV for hands 1 thru 80, but hands 81-90, being worse, bring the average EV down. It's marginal but detectible through simulations.
100000Challenge
100000Challenge
Joined: Jul 24, 2021
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 10
July 24th, 2021 at 5:21:32 PM permalink
I imagine some grinder has done the math before on this problem.

Supposedly you can make money off of grinding CSM BJ as long as there are other positive factors in your advantage.
BoSox
BoSox
Joined: Mar 9, 2021
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 228
July 24th, 2021 at 5:54:30 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

With a cut card one issue comes from having to play later hands in any shoes which had a lot of high cards early in the shoe. When I looked at the EV of various hands within a shoe, what happens is most shoes act normally. However, occasionally a shoe has more hands than normal and the hands in those shoes towards the end have a worse EV than average.



I strongly disagree with this theory that a shoe that has more hands played than normal that towards the end of those shoes will have a worse EV than average. A shoe could just as easily start off early with the true count rising, "of course with much more low cards played" However, for this same shoe to end with more hands played than normally "as you stated" it is more factual that the true count will be dropping, "and possibly even go negative" at the best time possible, in the later percentages of the shoe. Otherwise, you would not get more hands played in those shoes than normal.

Quote: charliepatrick



So for instance you might have a regular EV for hands 1 thru 80, but hands 81-90, being worse, bring the average EV down. It's marginal but detectible through simulations.



If as in the "for instance" example that you gave in a shoe with more hands played in it than normal that these hands played 1 through 80 came out at regular EV the only logical way to reach more hands played than normal is for the remaining hands played to be excessive in high cards. Obviously good for the player.
Last edited by: BoSox on Jul 24, 2021
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
  • Threads: 28
  • Posts: 5552
Thanks for this post from:
dawinnaatlozins
July 25th, 2021 at 12:06:53 AM permalink
On the Wizards rules variation page (https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/rule-variations/) he states that going from 8 decks to 4 decks is worth .06% towards the player. So if the average house edge off the top is near .5%, this would take you to ~.44%. Not much of a difference. Not an "advantage play."
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
billryan
billryan 
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 217
  • Posts: 13330
July 25th, 2021 at 6:56:37 AM permalink
Is there a four deck game in Vegas? I knew of one nearby, in Searchlight, but it went away.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.

  • Jump to: