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Moraine
Moraine
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Mission146
May 17th, 2021 at 1:28:16 PM permalink
In blackjack, If a deck of 52 cards has one surplus high card (10, J, Q, K, Ace), a non-high card (2 thru 9) must be missing. The probability of that missing non-high card being a low card (2 thru 5) is 5 out of 8, or 62.5%.

I have wondered why count both the high and the low (10 cards per suit and 40 cards per deck)? Why not count the high cards only (5 cards per suit and 20 per deck) and ignore the rest, 32 cards per deck in total?

This way a card counter can relax like an ordinary recreational blackjack player in 32/52 or 61.5% of the time instead of being able to relax only in 12/52 or 23% of the time -- a 167% more time to catch a break since (61.5%-23%) / 23% = 1.67 = 167%.
billryan
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Mission146MoraineRomes
May 17th, 2021 at 1:58:58 PM permalink
A card counter isn't there to relax.
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Moraine
Moraine
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Mission146
May 17th, 2021 at 7:14:56 PM permalink
True, card counters go to casinos for business, not to relax, but many would still welcome an easier "job", considering that card counting a 6 or 8-deck shoe nowadays is often tiring. If there is a simpler, less demanding method, counters may be able to work for longer hours and win more -- let alone having time for some fun too while "PLAYING" blackjack like everyone else at the table.

One more thought: Most card counters may know Ed Thorp used the Ten Count and clobbered Reno casinos in early 1960s. With that said, I would venture counting 5 high cards alone may work just fine, since it counts one more high card than Ten Count.
Mission146
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Moraine
May 18th, 2021 at 4:02:38 AM permalink
Quote: Moraine

In blackjack, If a deck of 52 cards has one surplus high card (10, J, Q, K, Ace), a non-high card (2 thru 9) must be missing. The probability of that missing non-high card being a low card (2 thru 5) is 5 out of 8, or 62.5%.

I have wondered why count both the high and the low (10 cards per suit and 40 cards per deck)? Why not count the high cards only (5 cards per suit and 20 per deck) and ignore the rest, 32 cards per deck in total?

This way a card counter can relax like an ordinary recreational blackjack player in 32/52 or 61.5% of the time instead of being able to relax only in 12/52 or 23% of the time -- a 167% more time to catch a break since (61.5%-23%) / 23% = 1.67 = 167%.



Simply put: Because that's not how it works. The High-Low count (and similar counts) work the way they do for a reason. If you take a look here at Effect-of-Removal:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/effect-of-removal/

Granted, that's for six decks and you might be talking about a different game, but as you can see, the other card values (2-9) are nowhere near neutral. It just turns out that a player can look at (7-9) and call that close enough to not really have to specifically count those.

Still, a nine has more than 40% of the positive player value of a ten, so if you were going to advocate for anything, it should probably be specifically tracking those, as well.

The eight is the closest thing there is to a completely neutral card and is very slightly player favorable. The second closest thing to a neutral card is a seven, which favors the house somewhat. For this six-decks example on the page, it seems that it favors the House almost exactly as much as a nine favors the player for S17 and less than a nine favors the player for H17.

Anyway, the point is, the high-low count is effectively already designed for ease-of-use. And, if you look at the EV chart, it becomes pretty clear why you wouldn't want to treat a nine the same way you would treat a five.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Hunterhill
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MoraineMrCasinoGamesMission146
May 18th, 2021 at 5:39:55 AM permalink
You could keep track of how many high cards have been dealt and whether there is an excess or shortage depending on how many decks have been played But I donít think it would be any easier than using hi lo.
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teliot
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Mission146Moraine
May 18th, 2021 at 6:53:39 AM permalink
Isn't this idea already out there? Look at speed count.
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Moraine
Moraine
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Mission146
May 18th, 2021 at 12:34:41 PM permalink
Just searched "Speed Count" on the net. It seems "speed Count" counts the small cards PLUS THE NUMBER OF HANDS PLAYED TO ESTIMATE players' advantage. Interesting, but seems different.
Last edited by: Moraine on May 18, 2021
teliot
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MoraineMission146
May 18th, 2021 at 12:58:14 PM permalink
Quote: Moraine

Just searched "Speed Count" on the net. It seems "speed Count" counts the small cards PLUS THE NUMBER OF HANDS PLAYED TO ESTIMATE players' advantage. Interesting, but seems different.

Think about this a bit more please before you go on thinking you have something new.

This is an extremely weak method, barely producing a player edge. Any information less than this it certainly not winning.
Poetry website: www.totallydisconnected.com
Moraine
Moraine
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Mission146
May 18th, 2021 at 1:04:08 PM permalink
Quote: Hunterhill

You could keep track of how many high cards have been dealt and whether there is an excess or shortage depending on how many decks have been played But I donít think it would be any easier than using hi lo.



But no longer need to adjust the RUNNING COUNT UP-AND-DOWN though -- a boring but demanding task in the most part of a 6 to 8-deck shoe game.
Moraine
Moraine
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Mission146
May 18th, 2021 at 2:44:56 PM permalink
Whether a counting system is weak or strong, wouldn't it all depend on the Betting Correlation (BC), Playing Efficiency (PE) and Insurance Correlation (IC)? The method of counting the high and ignoring the rest in effect has assigned -1 as the point value for each of the 10, J, Q, K and Ace, but 0 to all others.

There used to be "Card Counting Efficiency Calculator" readily available on internet. Too bad, the calculator seems not working as of late. Otherwise, the comparisons between Counting-the-High-Only and Any Other System would be clear.

PS - I know Ed Thorp's Ten Count has pretty good BC+PE+IC in comparison with the numbers of Hi-Lo. Counting the high cards only shouldn't be very far off.

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