etony33
etony33
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April 2nd, 2021 at 9:41:16 AM permalink
So, there's an old video game that has a little blackjack minigame you can play. The rules are as follows:

-Just you and the dealer, I'm assuming continuous shuffler and 6+ decks
-No double, split, or surrender
- Blackjack is 1:1, dealer doesn't check for blackjack until after you play
-Dealer will always hit if he would otherwise lose! If you have 20 and the dealer has 19, dealer hits.

Basic strategy would be completely different, of course, but does anyone have a basic idea of just how bad the house edge would be? I'm thinking at least 15%.
unJon
unJon
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April 2nd, 2021 at 9:56:01 AM permalink
Quote: etony33

So, there's an old video game that has a little blackjack minigame you can play. The rules are as follows:

-Just you and the dealer, I'm assuming continuous shuffler and 6+ decks
-No double, split, or surrender
- Blackjack is 1:1, dealer doesn't check for blackjack until after you play
-Dealer will always hit if he would otherwise lose! If you have 20 and the dealer has 19, dealer hits.

Basic strategy would be completely different, of course, but does anyone have a basic idea of just how bad the house edge would be? I'm thinking at least 15%.



Does blackjack at least beat a dealer 21 of three or more cards?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Mission146
Mission146
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Thanks for this post from:
unJonteliotDJTeddyBearsabreodiousgambitPokerGrinder
April 2nd, 2021 at 10:01:27 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Does blackjack at least beat a dealer 21 of three or more cards?



We should delete this thread before this gets installed at The Venetian and becomes their most popular game.
Vultures can't be choosers.
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
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April 2nd, 2021 at 11:17:30 AM permalink
Quote: etony33

So, there's an old video game that has a little blackjack minigame you can play. The rules are as follows:

-Just you and the dealer, I'm assuming continuous shuffler and 6+ decks
-No double, split, or surrender
- Blackjack is 1:1, dealer doesn't check for blackjack until after you play
-Dealer will always hit if he would otherwise lose! If you have 20 and the dealer has 19, dealer hits.

Basic strategy would be completely different, of course, but does anyone have a basic idea of just how bad the house edge would be? I'm thinking at least 15%.

Assuming the dealer has to hit until they reach 17; obviously they will stand on Soft 17 if that wins, else hit. Or perhaps do they hit soft 17 if you also have 17, possibly a similar argument for soft 18 etc. I assumed not (thought I do remember playing Pontoon on a boat where the dealer would hit 3-card s18s, but that was with 5-card tricks.)

Since the value of 18-21 is less than in regular BJ, but the value of standing stiff is the same, it is probably better to stand slightly earlier and pray (this certainly applies to Pontoon where you lose standoffs.)
billryan
billryan
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April 2nd, 2021 at 11:20:25 AM permalink
I used to practice on an old handheld video game. Pretty regular rules except BJ paid 2-4-1. It was a single deck and told you when it shuffled so counting was easy My results were well below expectation until I realized BJ was paying even money. I must have played it for weeks before realizing it was even money.
etony33
etony33
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April 2nd, 2021 at 12:59:31 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

Assuming the dealer has to hit until they reach 17; obviously they will stand on Soft 17 if that wins, else hit. Or perhaps do they hit soft 17 if you also have 17, possibly a similar argument for soft 18 etc. I assumed not (thought I do remember playing Pontoon on a boat where the dealer would hit 3-card s18s, but that was with 5-card tricks.)

Since the value of 18-21 is less than in regular BJ, but the value of standing stiff is the same, it is probably better to stand slightly earlier and pray (this certainly applies to Pontoon where you lose standoffs.)



I should have clarified: the dealer just automatically wins if he has under 17 but his hand beats your hand.
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
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April 2nd, 2021 at 3:01:33 PM permalink
Quote: etony33

I should have clarified: the dealer just automatically wins if he has under 17 but his hand beats your hand.

I suspect you always hit 14 (unless you somehow know the dealer has 13 or 14). In theory the Dealer should hit 14 or less if there's a tie, also soft 17, as there's better than a 50:50 chance of winning. Thus I feel it's not going to be a great game for the player!
kewlj
kewlj
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April 2nd, 2021 at 3:08:43 PM permalink
I forget what how much BJ paying even money adds to house advantage. It is going to be big though because blackjack paying 6:5 increases house advantage up to 2%, so paying even less @ even money, probably upwards of 4%. I'm sure the answer is on Wizard's site somewhere.

To me the really weird thing is the dealer continuing to hit until he beats the player. I mean that is basically a free roll for the house. Player has 19 and dealer has 18 the player is supposed to win. So if dealer hits, he likely busts and losses as he would have anyway, but those instances that he draws a 2 or 3....Free win. Free Roll!

I have no idea what that would do to the house edge but it can't be good. Run for the hills from this game!
teliot
teliot
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April 2nd, 2021 at 3:29:13 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

I forget what how much BJ paying even money adds to house advantage. It is going to be big though because blackjack paying 6:5 increases house advantage up to 2%, so paying even less @ even money, probably upwards of 4%. I'm sure the answer is on Wizard's site somewhere.

Easy to approximate, you are not even close.

Recall that blackjack occurs about 1-in-21 hands (one of those weird blackjack coincidences).

Paying 6/5 instead of 3/2 reduces the payout from 15/10 to 12/10, or 3/10 of a unit. Therefore the house keeps an extra (3/10)*(1/21) = 0.14286. So, 6/5 increases the house edge by about 1.4%.

If blackjack pays 1/1 instead of 3/2, then you lose 1/2 unit every 21 hands, that is the house keeps an extra (1/2)*(1/21) = 0.02381 units. So, 1/1 increases the house edge by about 2.4%.

These are napkin estimates. For the exact effect you would need to know the number of decks being used. Here are the actual numbers for 1 & 8 decks -- you can see how good the napkin estimates are.

1 deck: Blackjack occurs once every 20.71875 hands. 6/5 reduces the edge by 1.448%. 1/1 reduces the edge by 2.413%

8 deck: Blackjack occurs once every 21.07422 hands. 6/5 reduces the edge by 1.424%. 1/1 reduces the edge by 2.373%.
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kewlj
kewlj
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April 2nd, 2021 at 3:34:47 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

Easy to approximate, you are not even close.

Recall that blackjack occurs about 1-in-21 hands.

Paying 6/5 instead of 3/2 reduces the payout from 15/10 to 12/10, or 3/10 of a unit. Therefore the house keeps an extra (3/10)*(1/21) = 3/210 = 0.14286. So, 6/5 increases the house edge by about 1.4%.

If blackjack pays 1/1 instead of 3/2, then you lose 1/2 unit every 21 hands, that is the house keeps an extra (1/2)*(1/21) = 1/42 = 0.02381 units. So, 1/1 increases the house edge by about 2.4%.

These are napkin estimates. For the exact effect you would need to know the number of decks being used. But, these are close enough to be general across the various games.



Yes, these amounts 1.4 and 2.4 increase in house advantage are ON TOP of the roughly .5 house advantage for most game. So upwards of 2% for 6:5, which is what I said. The even money was just a guess. Looks like I was a bit off, maybe 3% total instead of 4%. Either way....I am not playing this game. :/

Just curious as to you back of the napkin estimate for that weird dealer hits until he wins or busts rule?

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